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Time to invest in the lottery.
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:22 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner Powerball is up to $340 million.
Chances of winning are are about 1 in 149,000,000
Tickets cost $1.
Expected value is quite a bit higher than 1. |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:23 AM Author: cream hyperventilating stage unless someone else wins too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083788) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:24 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner That always sucks. But the chances of two people winning are pretty low. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083796) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:25 AM Author: balding station codepig Not low enough to risk all those millions. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083805) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:27 AM Author: cream hyperventilating stage with the number of people participating are the chances of 2 people winning that much lower than the chances of one person winning? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083820) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:23 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner If you get a good loan, maybe you can buy all 149 million numbers and assure a win. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083791) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:38 PM Author: hairraiser twinkling property when i was about ten, i asked my dad why people don't do this.
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:41 PM Author: claret principal's office There are people who've done similar, but the ventures tend to be money-losers on account of taxes, split-pots, and the exponentially declining present value of money over time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4084356) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:41 PM Author: hairraiser twinkling property yeah, the split-pot thing is obvious. not to a ten year old, however. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4084360) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:23 AM Author: Lilac motley ladyboy depressive taxes are a bitch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083792) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:24 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner 40% or so? EV still greater than 1. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083799) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:29 AM Author: bateful onyx new version False. $340 million is the payout over 30 years. Present value is probably about $130 million. Minus taxes. Still a losing bet. |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:36 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner "Present value is probably about $130 million."
If it's that low, you're right. |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:24 AM Author: supple unholy piazza what are the chances of winning the whole prize without having to share though? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083794) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:25 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner Isn't it 1/149,000,000^2? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083803) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:26 AM Author: balding station codepig No. That's the chance of one person winning 2 lotteries in a row. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083815) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:28 AM Author: cream hyperventilating stage yep. you need to replace all the people buying lottery tickets to get the odds of sharing.
when you have as many people buying tickets as the odds of winning, there is a good chance you are going to have to split. |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:29 AM Author: balding station codepig The expected number of wins is (# of tickets sold)/149,000,000, yes? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083836) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:47 PM Author: cream hyperventilating stage no, cause that would mean theres a 100% chance of someone winning if 150M people play, which is not the case. Everyone picks individually. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4084397) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:49 PM Author: bateful onyx new version No it doesn't. The expected number of Heads is however many times you flip the coin/2. Does that mean there's 100% chance a heads comes up each 2 times you flip? |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:28 AM Author: Sepia Deranged Personal Credit Line Partner You're right. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083831) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:39 PM Author: cream hyperventilating stage wow... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4084346) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 12:41 PM Author: curious milky stock car gas station holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4084354) |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:32 AM Author: supple unholy piazza No. I could calculate it for you if you knew how many people played. For example, if a million people played you would need to find the number of ways you could pick a million numbers out of 149 million without getting a repeat.
Edit: and then multiply that by 1/149 million. |
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Date: October 19th, 2005 11:24 AM Author: Lilac motley ladyboy depressive some guys from australia did this a few years back and won and a bunch of people were up in arms and said it wasn't fair and that they shouldn't receive the prize. people are fucking stupid. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=281728&forum_id=2#4083798) |