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peak oil will end all discussions of prestige and $125K
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:42 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property seriously. people with balls and guns will have the power (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491674) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:43 AM Author: violent box office Explain why (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491676) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:45 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property well if there's not enough fuel:
1) trucks won't be able to bring food from farms 2) won't be enough fertilizer for high yields 3) law enforcement breaks down
so there would be pandemonium and a rush to the countryside (where the food is)
you'd have neo-feudalism with people killing each other for power, just like in feudal europe |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:43 AM Author: Autistic dog poop piazza how about no balls but lots of guns? can't I compensate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491677) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:46 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property it's a cold heart that kills (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491684) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:54 AM Author: Autistic dog poop piazza I'm ok with that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491715) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:44 AM Author: tripping very tactful organic girlfriend I only hope I live to see the day where this comes to pass and our society becomes better and more just. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491681) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:46 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property in 10 years its happening. get rdy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491686) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:17 AM Author: tripping very tactful organic girlfriend I hope you're right but I fear you aren't. It would be so badass if we destroyed the vestiges of our polite, PC society where men are emasculated and instead went back to Wild West style pwnage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491766) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 11:30 AM Author: Galvanic masturbator station O RLY? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5492136) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:47 AM Author: Talented shrine you can't even graduate from your TTT UG and you're going to give us energy advice?
i regret helping you find a mcdonalds and being among the 3M people you live near |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:49 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property i don't want to graduate, because I hate school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491700) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:51 AM Author: ebony metal windowlicker stock car That is nonsensical.... Why would you not want to graduate if you hate school? Are you mentally incapacitated? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491710) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:10 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife i agree w/ you for once. if you hate school, work like hell and graduate ASAP.
besides, who hates college? wtf? life doesnt get too much easier or better. wait till he actually has to make a living. |
Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:48 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife why would this occur, given untold trillions of barrels upon in the oil sands of canada. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491694) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:48 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property how are you going to get them out? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491696) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:51 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife Total, a french oil giant, is already doing it. usually using tons of water. Exxon is doing it too.
they will cost more. mayhbe 75 a barrel, since production/extraction/refining costs are higher than with the benchmark light sweet crude. but the oil is there. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:52 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property haha. if the market price of oil is $100, for example, the tar sands people will charge $100
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:54 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife dont you see, this is not how markets work. if there is a commodity like oil, and Total has some and Exxon has some...what happens?
Exxon offers at 100. Total, trying to sell its crude, offers 98. Exxon 95. Total 92. and so on and so on until they find a price the buyer will pay but still allows them an acceptable return on their capital. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:55 AM Author: Talented shrine but the floor would be 75 assuming no advances in technology. as opposed to the current floor.
but yes, his comment was incredibly stupid. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:57 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife yeah the floor would be different. my post implies that ('acceptable return on their capital'...75 is about that point).
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:00 AM Author: Talented shrine sorry. assumed 75 == cost to bring to market. not familiar with cost of sucking canada's sponge. have heard that is has more oil that saudi arabia though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491734) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:03 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife it does or is close. it will cost a lot more to get out though of course.
canada aint the only place either. latin america has vast oil sands. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:57 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property yeah, that's ASSUMING that the number of barrels demanded is less than the number of barrels in stock. obviously then oil companies would compete against each other on price
but the situation will be that the number of barrels needed is vastly more than the number of barrels in stock. so it'll be the other way around. purchasers of oil will compete against themselves on price, bidding the price up until it's the highest they're willing to pay |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:59 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife how do you know this? there are about 1.74 trillion barrels of oil in Canada's oil sands alone. i see no reason why scarcity should ensue. if the market price, due to scarcity, is high enough (75 or so), the incentives will be there to use the oil sands. and they are essentially endless.
so we're fine, except for a permanently higher price of oil, probably. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:03 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property dude, oil is the only real transportation fuel there is.
all the trucks that bring food thousands of miles to your door need oil
the world's population is rapidly increasing, urbanizing, and industrializing
without oil, people will starve. the price is going to skyrocket |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:05 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife yes but there are almost 2 *trillion* barrels in one country alone. that is enough to last for many, many years. then there are more in Latin America.
and all the normal oil fields arent gone either. not by a longshot.
also, deep water drilling can provide tons more. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:05 AM Author: Insecure Blathering Native Jap if it is true that necessity is the mother of invention, then when we perceive our oil reserves diminishing to a dangerous low, we'll put more effort into using substitutes and making them economically viable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491746) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:11 AM Author: Talented shrine we humans seem to come through when it counts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491756) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:12 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife def. if we can live through the black plague, we can make it through a fucking oil shortage. that aint shit by comparison. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491758) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:15 AM Author: Talented shrine you realize this is the fundemental difference between the socialist and the libertarian - the democrat and the republican? one believes that the govt must prepare for the worst by fairly distributing funds to all those who have ideas whereas the other belives the market will find the solution and fund it naturally. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491761) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:17 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife yeah. i dont agree with everything libertarians or republicans say. nor democrats.
but libs/repubs are right about markets. they dont always work but they tend to work better than anything else. while the price of oil from normal fields is low and we can get it easily, the market naturally inhibits costly work in oil sands. that's great cuz it keeps us from wasting our capital there.
almost magically, as oil from fields becomes scarce (and the price goes up), there are huge incentives do develop oil sands.
i know all about markets, but honestly, this still amazes and delights me. it's incredible and wonderful. may as well let this awesome system function as it naturally does. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:19 AM Author: aphrodisiac nighttime gas station the pro-governmental intervention/laissez faire distinction is so simple that it almost resembles a false dichotomy. but history really does indicate that these two alternatives are the only ones that exist. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491767) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:21 AM Author: Talented shrine let freedom ring? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491770) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:28 AM Author: aphrodisiac nighttime gas station apparently, not a lot of people buy into this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491791) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:02 AM Author: Insecure Blathering Native Jap if our current oil reserves are practically limitless, your scenario will never happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491737) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:04 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife and they basically are, although oil sands cost more to extract. technology improvements may make it no tougher than conventional oil fields though...some day.
even with current tech never improving, we're only looking at a price in the 70's for oil sands oil. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:09 AM Author: Insecure Blathering Native Jap yeah, there's really no reason to think that there will be no improvement in extraction technologies by the time our non-oil-sands reserves are depleted (assuming of course that such a point in time exists) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491752) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:11 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife yep. the companies doing this are very very smart. we're talking Exxon and Total and others. some of the most well-managed and innovative companies on the planet. these major oil companies have technology and management that put the likes of Microsoft to shame.
and they will figure shit out. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:15 AM Author: aphrodisiac nighttime gas station indeed. i'd imagine that Big Oil is at that phase of industry evolution where seemingly insurmountable problems spark revolutionary innovation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491764) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:20 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife yep. Exxon is far more innovative than Microsoft these days, i think, and its reflected in its business results. despite a WAY higher profit margin, Exxon's Return on Equity (dunno if you follow this stuff, but this is *the* key metric guys like Warren Buffett use to evaluate how well a business runs) is 34% to Microsofts 28%.
that is strong innovation and management at work. they sell a low-margin commodity (oil) and they get awesome capital returns doing it. good stuff.
i doubt there is much, oil-wise, that Exxon and its ilk cannot do, given incentives and time. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:27 AM Author: aphrodisiac nighttime gas station interesting. are you saying that a 6% advantage in ROE reflects a superior innovation intellect and management ability? i think i agree. but is there really a way to compare the innovation intellects of two totally different companies? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491790) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 8:15 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife i think there is...who does more to transform their field and help society, etc.
well, considering that MSFT has an enormous monopoly in operating systems and XOM has only a commodity product to sell, even if XOM's ROE matched MSFT's, i'd be pretty impressed. MSFT's should be through the roof imo.
wow that was a lot of acronyms! |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:51 AM Author: violent box office When the revenue from extraction exceeds the cost of extraction the oil will be removed. The methods exist; they are not yet profitable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491707) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:52 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife precisely.
when Nymex crude hits 70, that's about the point. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:55 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property dude, did you see how fast oil doubled from 30 to 60?
the price increase won't be gradual, it will be violent
if you're thinking of the value of ur mutual fund's natural resources holdings, the value will increase.
but that won't prevent catastrophe |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:56 AM Author: Talented shrine is this why every time the ppb goes down my SSL goes up? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491725) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:57 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property what's ssl? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491728) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:58 AM Author: Talented shrine stay on top of things. you're good at it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491729) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:59 AM Author: rough-skinned bearded property just answer the question (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491731) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:04 AM Author: Talented shrine Sasol Limited. South African energy company. coal, recently oil and natural gas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491744) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:07 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife fuck you must've made a fortune on that thing. south africa has some good bargains. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491748) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:08 AM Author: Talented shrine bought just above $20. wasn't a fortune. didn't have the capital to make a fortune ;)
didn't serve me bad tho. if you want a real cinderella story: i bought a crap load of American Airlines at $6 a couple summer back. altho again, not enough for a 'fortune'. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:14 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife fucking nice. you very into investing? i find it pretty interesting. anything you're liking now? i am into the LUK. PSPFX is schweet too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491760) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:20 AM Author: Talented shrine not 'very' into it. AMR was a tip (when it hit $6 back in 10/04 it was grossly undervalued) and SSL was kinda lucky. Like i said: no fortunes made here. when you're playing with a few thousand bucks at a time the comission cost hurts so i less tempted to play and more tempted to hold. up about ~25% in the last 15 mo.
another (recent) fun one is CEGE. bought into that around the 5.90 area about a year ago. it hovered around there (mostly down, sometimes up) and i wanted to ditch it. just recently its popped up. not familiar with LUK or PSPFX but the charts look fun. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:27 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife damn that's good, i didnt know cege (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491789) |
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Date: April 24th, 2007 2:12 AM Author: topaz impressive pocket flask multi-billionaire http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=LUK&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=pspfx (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#7991273) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:02 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife it wont go from 60 to 120 that quickly, odds are. i hope it does. my PSPFX will fucking pwn if it does and i will be far wealthier. but i am not counting on it.
i just see no reason why there will be insufficient oil, with the oil sands in Canada and elsewhere. we will likely see a price in the 70's in the future (to pay for the cost of drawing on oil sands instead of conventional fields), and permanently, i think. but there will be oil. |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:48 AM Author: Pontificating Karate Base Yup, watch this: SHUT THE HELL UP ABOUT PRESTIGE AND $125K! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491697) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 6:51 AM Author: Histrionic startled national knife hhaahhahahaahaha 174 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491708) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:08 AM Author: Insecure Blathering Native Jap 177 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491749) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 7:06 AM Author: Talented shrine energy cell cars + nuclear reactors = oil? what oil? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#5491747) |
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Date: April 2nd, 2006 11:04 AM Author: motley corner fuel cells are massive energy sinks and have no relevance to questions of scarcity
nuclear reactors can't be built on a large scale right now b/c we don't have the energy resources for that kind of undertaking
as usual, people misunderstand this issue by thinking that financial cost and not energy cost is the primary issue |
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Date: May 20th, 2008 1:47 PM Author: Diverse Police Squad Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392283&forum_id=2#9809769) |