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Should i hold ~10% bonds in my long term portfolio? or fuck bonds
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Date: April 19th, 2018 11:49 AM Author: cocky swashbuckling cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874169) |
Date: April 19th, 2018 11:51 AM Author: Hairraiser Turquoise Voyeur Lodge Obvious answer is depends on your goals / situation
10% sounds like some BB rated junk. I’d probably just do equities instead for dat upside. |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Adventurous candlestick maker brunch JFC, you only live once. Reach for the stars, man. Bonds, lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874196) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:11 PM Author: Histrionic set trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875875) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:44 PM Author: angry locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877691) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 11:58 AM Author: electric olive range I know plenty of serious-minded investors in their 20s, 30s, 40s who remain all equity (with subclass diversification) on a rocket-fuel theory of just trying to juice returns and endorsing the view that equity is always going to outperform bonds as long as you have a significantly long time horizon. But there is an argument from modern portfolio theory that having a small component of your portfolio invested in bonds will increase your long-run risk adjusted return (and potentially your long-run absolute return) as long as you engage in routine (at least annual and ideally quarterly) portfolio rebalancing. The argument in favor can get technical but the gist of it is that having a bond component shelters you during periods of market downturns and then enables you to rebalance into equities with depressed prices / or conversely exit equities that are overheated. Some of this argument turns on access to leverage but there's a case for it even if you're just doing straight buying and selling. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874227) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:00 PM Author: Jade motley temple Cr. Plus if you have access to the TSP the g fund is money (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874242) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:01 PM Author: cocky swashbuckling cumskin i was waiting for this to turn into a sci fi epic, but yeah ive generally done 10% in bonds based on similar advice i got when i started putting money into the market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874250) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:25 PM Author: diverse legend circlehead i'll call bullshit for a more important reason the one year out of ten where you 'win' because you only had 90% of your holdings get slammed by a downturn does not result in enough of a psychological boost to make up for the other 9 years where you weren't maximizing your gains. i'll call bullshit for a less supportable reason, too. i don't believe the premise is true in most situations, but that's just a hunch |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:56 PM Author: Sepia address hairy legs Psychological boost? Fuck are you talking about? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876125) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 4:03 PM Author: diverse legend circlehead you don't think there is a psychological component to investing? you're incredibly naïve if you argue otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876167) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 4:37 PM Author: Duck-like mental disorder im here for the risk adjusted returns. i get my feel goods elsewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876373) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 6:05 PM Author: diverse legend circlehead then have the branch op cite his work i can tell you a few reasons why it is bullshit just looking at his explanation, but since you're such a cold hearted pragmatist investor, i'm sure you already see them |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:37 PM Author: cocky swashbuckling cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874506) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:38 PM Author: Silver exciting piazza I do 10% bonds 90% stocks. Come at me, bros. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874515) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:47 PM Author: spectacular gaping That’s what I do. I also place retarded bets in the distressed high yield space . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874575) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:43 PM Author: spectacular gaping You should have your age in bonds, i.e., 35 percent treasuries and 65 percent large cap blue chips, if you are 35 years old. I’m time traveling from 1985, btw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874550) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:45 PM Author: cocky swashbuckling cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874565) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:46 PM Author: Hairraiser Turquoise Voyeur Lodge so 30 year olds should have 30% in fixed income? despite ~35 more years of increasing pay ahead of them? regardless of 401k contributions? this can’t be right for someone with a reasonable risk tolerance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874566) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM Author: spectacular gaping Did you miss the part where I am a time traveller? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874579) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM Author: Hairraiser Turquoise Voyeur Lodge lmao yes. i read the first sentence and became unhinged (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874584) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM Author: electric olive range im 30 and there's no way id put 30% in fixed income I just got a second mortgage on our house I didn't tell my wife but it's going to pay off so it doesn't matter and anyway I am INVESTING on heavy margin in options im doing the "random walk" approach which is u just randomly pick a bunch of different options and the theory is that it just pays off because ull have some winners and some losers but the winners will be bigger than the losers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874586) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:51 PM Author: spectacular gaping 180. Gonna do this tonight. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874609) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:55 PM Author: electric olive range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874644) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:57 PM Author: bisexual doctorate principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874657) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:10 PM Author: deep lettuce Your post up top is super cr. But here...buying options on margin? Brother i hope it works out for you, but this sounds like a terrible idea. “Random walk” refers to equities not options on equities (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875862) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:43 PM Author: electric olive range i just dont see the big risk; there is going to be some winners and some losers but they say a monkey throwing darts can beat the average mutual fund so i should be able to pick things at random and win; its not just on margin its this thing they call "EXTREME MARGIN" that they're offering through this italian platform that one of the people in my office hooked me up with--im a secretary in biglaw--so you can borrow up to 90% of the value so ive been able to buy a ton of options (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876075) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:49 PM Author: spectacular gaping Brother, you may be autistic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876102) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:52 PM Author: Sticky property roast beef just as likely your pay will fall off a cliff and youll be unemployable than youll have increasing pay for 35 years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874623) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:56 PM Author: spectacular gaping Fortuitous cliff (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874648) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:57 PM Author: territorial aphrodisiac clown Yes but purchase actual bonds. Not a bond fund etf whose value jumps up and down. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876132) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:07 PM Author: Charismatic selfie parlour Extreme TCR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876566) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:11 PM Author: Hairraiser Turquoise Voyeur Lodge Wait what? The value and price of a bond absolutely changes even if you hold them directly.
This is like the most nonsensical shit I’ve ever heard. |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 6:07 PM Author: Peach disgusting institution new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876960) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:16 PM Author: cocky swashbuckling cumskin explain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876662) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:22 PM Author: Hairraiser Turquoise Voyeur Lodge Here’s what I think he means (but i hope not for his sake):
ETFs are based on the prices of the underlying bonds so the etf price will fluctuate if say interest rates go up or the issuers have a higher chance of insolvency (causing the underlying bond prices to drop)
But if you just hold the bonds you’ll still get the same nominal interest and principal payment regardless of what happens to the bond price. So he’s ignoring the impact of higher interest rates on the NPV of the coupon/principal payments or any changes to the chance the issuer goes bankrupt and you end up with much less than you expect
If you said this in an undergrad finance class I honestly think the professor might beat you to death on the spot |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:17 PM Author: bronze rehab explain, shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876665) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:08 PM Author: Fragrant bipolar menage I’m at about 5% bonds, half US and half international. I’m also about 40% in investment real estate though (in equity terms;150% with leverage) and I think that’s the more significant hedge/diversification. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877498) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:14 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone site national security agency I’m 100% equities but I have my son’s UTMA in some high yield corporate junk bond index fund since I’m just trying to maximize yield. I see no reason to be in bonds if you have no plans to pull any money out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877535) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:42 PM Author: angry locus bonds are ok if you regularly need access to cash for a small business and just need a place to store money
they also might be useful for stabilizing a margin account if you're writing a ton of puts on SP500 minis or some other more exotic strategy
but otherwise, i wouldn't use them if you're young and/or have other bond-like instruments |
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Date: April 20th, 2018 10:37 AM Author: cocky swashbuckling cumskin Sounds like consensus is no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35880986) |