It’s not surprising that Trump decided to play fast-and-loose with jobs data. It’s still wrong.

By

“There is no Protocol, only Trump.” Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The federal jobs data that the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time moves markets. Anyone with inside information on the results -- did the economy add or lose jobs? -- could easily profit off it.

That’s why the BLS draws a tight circle around those eligible to get jobs data before it is released to the public. The president of the United States is one of them, usually during the prior afternoon or evening. Everyone with advance access to the data at the BLS and the White House have to swear not to say anything about it until they're released. Leakers face the possibilities of fines and jail if they do otherwise.

At least, that's how it's supposed to work.

On Thursday night, Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump's economic adviser, briefed Trump about the jobs data while they were travelling together aboard Air Force One. At 7:21 a.m. Friday, Trump tweeted that he was "looking forward" to seeing the numbers he had already been briefed on:

Donald J. Trump

✔

@realDonaldTrump

Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

4:21 AM - Jun 1, 2018

56.5K

22.7K people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

The impact on the markets was immediate: Yields on U.S. debt ticked higher as traders suddenly anticipated a positive jobs report -- an unusual moment, as my Bloomberg News colleague Lisa Abramowicz noticed:

View image on Twitter

View image on Twitter

Lisa Abramowicz

✔

@lisaabramowicz1

This is...unusual. Trump tweeted about jobs day at 7:21am EST, suggesting he knew the numbers would be surprisingly good. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1002510522032541701 … That's how the market took it anyway, with U.S. yields taking a leg higher right after. Raises a lot of questions.

5:11 AM - Jun 1, 2018

474

404 people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, neatly summed up the problems Trump's tweet presented:

Justin Wolfers

@JustinWolfers

Replying to @JustinWolfers

I try to stay away from conspiracy-mongering, but do you really think that a President who can't help himself but to tweet about the jobs report ahead of its 8:30 release was more disciplined in last night's phone calls with his wealthy friends?https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1002529121019289601 …

5:41 AM - Jun 1, 2018

176

78 people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

Ari Fleischer, a Republican who served in President George W. Bush's administration and has been an occasional Trump adviser, also took exception:

Ari Fleischer

✔

@AriFleischer

This certainly was a no-no. The advance info is sacrosanct - not to be shared. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/06/01/trump-breaks-protocol-sends-markets-a-clear-signal-on-jobs-report-before-numbers-are-released/ …

6:28 AM - Jun 1, 2018

Trump breaks protocol, sends markets a clear signal on jobs report before numbers are released

washingtonpost.com

562

515 people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

Aaron Sojourner, an economist at the University of Minnesota who has also helped prepare jobs report briefings for President Barack Obama and Trump, offered this thread on why he thought Trump's tweet was "wrong":

Aaron Sojourner

@aaronsojourner

Replying to @aaronsojourner

POTUS's tweet this morning leaking #JobsReport info is terribly irresponsible & violates administration policy.

I spent a year serving as CEA senior economist for labor, preparing POTUS #JobsReport briefing each month, for both Obama & Trump.

Here's why it wrong:

6:13 AM - Jun 1, 2018

197

121 people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

I also weighed in:

Tim O'Brien

✔

@TimOBrien

Trump broke with decades of protocol and commented publicly about jobs report data about an hour before they were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://apple.news/AbdTj0wRJRxKQWBRU1BAqxw …

5:54 AM - Jun 1, 2018

Trump breaks protocol, sends markets a clear signal on jobs report before numbers are released

President Trump on Friday broke with decades of protocol and commented publicly about the highly anticipated jobs report data 69 minutes before they were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

apple.news

385

882 people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

My tweet spawned a strong backlash from Trump supporters, and their responses largely fell into two camps:

1) The jobs numbers are great, so I should focus on the positives rather than the negatives (indeed, unemployment dropped to its lowest level since 1969 as a higher-than-expected 223,000 jobs were added to the economy in May), and

2) So what? Just stop your sobbing you liberal jerk and #MAGA.

On the first point: Today's jobs numbers were, indeed, great. But the momentum giving lift to the labor market began years ago during the Obama administration. Trump still needs another year or so in office before he and his supporters can lay sole claim to the macroeconomic gains we're seeing.

On the second point: Saying "so what?" to Trump's serial disregard for process, tradition and the law isn't a valid critique -- it's actually central to the problem. Institutions, processes and the law exist so powerful individuals can't flout convention or break rules and norms simply because they feel like it or get a kick out of doing it.

There are bigger issues at stake. Government economists assemble the job report with great care and secrecy because policymakers and analysts depend on the data to make decisions that affect financial markets and countless lives. Globally, the U.S. government is considered a gold standard in terms of the quality and reliability of the information it releases – not a reputation worth trashing for a tweet.

Some Trump supporters disagree. Here’s what one Twitter inhabitant, @billiecat, had to say about my observation that Trump "broke with decades of protocol" in his leak about the jobs data:

billiecat

@billiecat

Replying to @TimOBrien

There is no Protocol, only Trump.

5:55 AM - Jun 1, 2018

See billiecat's other Tweets

Twitter Ads info and privacy

I have no doubt that Trump followers like @billiecat want real change -- and real jobs. They clearly believe that Trump will deliver those things to them, protocol be damned. But in the absence of protocol you also can end up with a cult of personality fetching enough that you say "so what?" to almost any transgression. You stop caring.

There’s good reason to have deep concerns about Trump’s propensity for breaking the rules. After all, he has been playing fast and loose with information for some time now.

Back in 2002, when Trump was still just a businessman, the Securities and Exchange Commission forced his casino company to sign a cease and desist agreement after an investigation showed it had used “fraudulent” reporting tactics and doctored accounting in its public earnings statements.

After becoming president, he showed a similar inability to play it straight with valuable information. Last year, in a White House meeting with Russia's foreign minister and ambassador, he revealed highly classified information about a top-secret Israeli military operation (he was in the process of bragging to the Russian officials about the quality of his intelligence reports).

So we shouldn't be surprised that Trump -- either out of ignorance or just his historical and flagrant disregard for the law -- leaked the jobs market data. But we shouldn’t say it's par for the course, either. We shouldn't just say "So what?"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168089)

On the first point: Today's jobs numbers were, indeed, great. But the momentum giving lift to the labor market began years ago during the Obama administration. Trump still needs another year or so in office before he and his supporters can lay sole claim to the macroeconomic gains we're seeing.

On the second point: Saying "so what?" to Trump's serial disregard for process, tradition and the law isn't a valid critique -- it's actually central to the problem. Institutions, processes and the law exist so powerful individuals can't flout convention or break rules and norms simply because they feel like it or get a kick out of doing it.

There are bigger issues at stake. Government economists assemble the job report with great care and secrecy because policymakers and analysts depend on the data to make decisions that affect financial markets and countless lives. Globally, the U.S. government is considered a gold standard in terms of the quality and reliability of the information it releases – not a reputation worth trashing for a tweet.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168113)

"Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning."

It was already known that the employment numbers are released at 8:30, so the timing of the release wasn't news. Obviously, as POTUS, he looks forward to this and all the other critical numbers released by the .gov (or at least the ones with "headline numbers" which the jobs report definitely is). This tweet was the equivalent of "It's a beautiful day!" but libs went nuts.

If the tweet said something like "the jobs report is good!" or "the jobs report will show x number of jobs!" libs might have a point. But they don't, because they're shadowboxing against this imaginary tweet they made up. I'm guessing most of the outraged people have no idea what the original tweet said or are hoping to deceive those who never actually read it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168131)

1) Had access to the information before the tweet

2) Has an undeniable pattern of using his Twitter to highlight things that reflect well upon him (and vice versa).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168803)

Malice 🌩️

@traciemom

·

4h

Replying to @GOP and @realDonaldTrump

What is wrong with you people? Is everything just an opportunity to provoke an argument? Shouldn't you use this Twitter feed to promote good instead of divisiveness?

Yeah it's cons that provoke arguments over every little thing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168778)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-obama-economy-jobs-sb-idUSTRE5145P720090205

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama predicted more grim economic news when the government releases its January employment data on Friday.

“Tomorrow, we’re expecting another dismal jobs report on top of the 2.6 million jobs that we lost last year,” Obama said during a visit to the Department of Energy on Thu

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168787)

Beeks, Happy New Year!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168139)

LOL, yes, the BLS graciously gives the president the PRIVILEGE of learning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36168774)

disgusting

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3991740&forum_id=2#36169050)