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Trump's biggest weaknesses in 2020 re-election
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:17 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend 1. Taxes: most Americans are unhappy with the tax law because they are under the false impression that they did not get a tax cut (due to refunds and media misinformation). And due to the massive size of the corporate tax cut, versus modest cuts in individual marginal rates, this gives Dems an easy talking point in 2020.
2. Healthcare: it crushed the GOP in 2018 and unless Trump can present a better plan AND successfully sell it (his weak communication skills will hurt him), this will spell doom in 2020.
3. Money: Trump will be badly outspent due to Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and Wall Street donating significant large sums to Dems. Trump's base is poor whites who can barely afford a night out at Applebees.
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:11 PM Author: Hot address You are poor and half white and you can't afford a night out at applebee's either. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102664) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:12 PM Author: dashing library blood rage I love seeing a spin-off moniker of a female poster attack another spin-off moniker of a female poster. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102668) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:14 PM Author: Hot address It's good to pretend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102677) |
Date: April 17th, 2019 1:19 PM Author: bearded home Re 3: http://time.com/5570659/trump-2020-fundraising-campaign/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101470) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:22 PM Author: Ultramarine Cuckold Theatre I hadn’t thought about it much before this past year but it’s gotta be a big contributor to why an incumbent is so hard to beat. They can start fundraising immediately. Everyone else is competing for scraps right now while the field fills up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101484) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:32 PM Author: bearded home That, plus they have the advantage in name recognition, have a bunch of cameras on them all the time, can actually do things as part of their job that also spill over into the campaign (speeches, actual policy, etc.), etc.
This is a weird year though that seems to be more about the enthusiasm of the bases rather than which way moderates will go. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:25 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend Yeah that's because big money Dems haven't gotten involved yet. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101493) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:29 PM Author: bearded home OTOH, a bunch of Republicans didn't back Trump because they figured either a) he couldn't win, or b) that he was essentially a lib running on the R ticket. Neither is going to be a serious concern here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101508) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:30 PM Author: dashing library blood rage there's too many candidates right now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101514) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:44 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend In the general election, the big money donors such as Bloomberg will give to the eventual Dem nominee. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101632) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:22 PM Author: dashing library blood rage so the ONLY thing he has accomplished is a net negative? lol
and polls are showing people think the Supreme Court is too conservative now.
Trump's only big selling point is the stock market right now, but that's risky to tout because it could drop next year. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:26 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend Trump's instincts on the big issues are right, but his execution sucks due to his low IQ, poor communication skills, and lack of political savvy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101497) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:28 PM Author: dashing library blood rage he's very overrated. people think he was a political genius because he eeked out a win last time. reality was though that 45% of the country is going to vote Republican no matter what. He just got that in the right states. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101506) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:29 PM Author: Wonderful chrome institution potus the reality is that your a midget turd, prateek (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101510) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:26 PM Author: Ruddy nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102179) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:30 PM Author: irate cheese-eating death wish Trump: POTUS
You and Hillary: Not POTUS |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:31 PM Author: dashing library blood rage You: unemployed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101520) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:34 PM Author: irate cheese-eating death wish I wish. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101543) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:13 PM Author: dashing library blood rage sure you do (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102671) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:08 PM Author: curious menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102637) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:44 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend Trump won because Hillary collapsed and was unable to re-assemble the Obama coalition. In WI, he got fewer votes than Romney and fewer votes than W Bush in Ohio and Michigan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101640) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:08 PM Author: curious menage THIS! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102639) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:04 PM Author: walnut mood messiness lol what world are these SCOTUS is too conservative polls from (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101782) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:13 PM Author: Primrose useless brakes keepsake machete reeks of media influence / parroting-back talking points to sound smart about something <5% of the country understands (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101822) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:26 PM Author: Ruddy nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102180) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:30 PM Author: walnut mood messiness I don't buy it either (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102202) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:36 PM Author: Vivacious wild jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102229) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:13 PM Author: Arousing space fortuitous meteor Lol shut up nigger (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102673) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:27 PM Author: Beady-eyed Stain Locus Trump's biggest weaknesses are:
(1) demographics has weakened against the Republicans even more than 2016 (2) felon voter legalization in Florida and Virginia, as well as (3) a de-motivated base because Trump hasn't fulfilled campaign promises on immigration and trade.
It's Democrat's win for the taking as long as they nominate Biden or Buttgag and not Kamala or Bernie (which D's will still probably win but it's riskier).
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:28 PM Author: Wonderful chrome institution potus he isn't and has never tried to win virginia. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101505) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:29 PM Author: dashing library blood rage I will give him one thing. the smartest thing that campaign did was get out of Virginia early and move to the upper midwest. Virginia is hardly much of a swing state anymore and with Kaine on the ticket he wasn't going to win that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101511) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:32 PM Author: soul-stirring slate native athletic conference "demographics has weakened" ljl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101525) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:32 PM Author: dashing library blood rage how is he wrong? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101529) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:41 PM Author: soul-stirring slate native athletic conference (ESL) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101612) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:00 PM Author: dashing library blood rage who cares how he wrote it, his point is still valid. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101758) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:15 PM Author: Pink multi-colored jewess If anything his ESL buttressed the point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102134) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:15 PM Author: soul-stirring slate native athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102690) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:09 PM Author: curious menage cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102646) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:33 PM Author: Electric alcoholic sanctuary Bernie's going to be POTUS. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101534) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:35 PM Author: Beady-eyed Stain Locus Bernie's risk is that the corporate democrats don't like him and they have a lot of money, influence & power. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101549) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:38 PM Author: irate cheese-eating death wish Bernie would get blown the fuck out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101574) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:32 PM Author: Electric alcoholic sanctuary Lol can't fucking wait until 2020. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101926) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:09 PM Author: curious menage He's gonna get blown the fuck out in the primaries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102649) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:34 PM Author: bearded home I remember in 2016 when we were promised the demographics made a Trump win impossible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101536) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:36 PM Author: Beady-eyed Stain Locus Hillary won the popular vote by 2-3%; Trump eeked out an electoral victory by focusing on midwest states that Hillary ignored. Dems won't ignore the midwest again.
Demographics favor Democrats more in 2020 than in 2016. Borders are open. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:39 PM Author: bearded home "Hillary won the popular vote by 2-3%"
Who cares? Serious q. She could have won by 10%. It is like saying "well, team whatever took 10x the shots on goal of the other team", despite the other team getting more goals.
"Demographics favor Democrats more in 2020 than in 2016. Borders are open."
Illegals are likely to concentrate even more in already existing shitlib areas that are less cooperative with ICE. So yes, I could totally envision the shitlib winning even more of the popular vote while continuing to get trounced in the EC and losing the election in a landslide. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:02 PM Author: dashing library blood rage his bigger point was Hillary did a shit job campaigning. black turnout was terrible in Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee because she took those states (PA, MI, WI) for granted. She could have easily won by just juicing turnout in those cities. After 8 years of Obama the democratic base wasn't energized generally. That won't be the case this time. It's hard to see how Trump isn't a significant underdog in Michigan this time and probably Pennsylvania as well based on the 2018 election results. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101765) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:10 PM Author: curious menage CR
Shit, DEMS took the Governor's mansion in PA & Michigan in 2018.
Those states are definitely IN PLAY |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 8:01 PM Author: bearded home She is also a white woman running on white women's issues. Black male turnout was never going to be high. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38103354) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:40 PM Author: indigo fighting dysfunction hospital A 2-3% popular vote win for the dems in 2020 probably won't be enough.
The electoral college really favors Republicans. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:02 PM Author: dashing library blood rage Maybe but their popular vote win will probably be higher than that. It was 9 points in 2018 and we all knew it was a referendum on Trump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101768) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:27 PM Author: Ruddy nursing home How low is your iq to reference the popular vote in congressional midterm elections as if it is relevant? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102186) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:28 PM Author: indigo fighting dysfunction hospital Puts him at 105-115 IMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102190) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:28 PM Author: indigo fighting dysfunction hospital Have mid terms ever actually predicted a presidential election?
Do you not understand that the opposing party runs a bunch of moderates after losing the presidential election? |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:34 PM Author: Mentally impaired church building trust fund Imagine saying the “electoral college really favors republicans” in 2012. You would have been laughed at. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101933) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:37 PM Author: Maize Talented Deer Antler This is a much better list than op.
1) cr
2) long term cr.... but Florida gop is in the fight of their lives to delay implementation and may push it back past 2020.
3) i actually don't think this a big issue outside of alt right/xo/online type crowds. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:04 PM Author: dashing library blood rage 1. cr
2. I think Florida GOP is safe for a while. Biggest predictor in the election was age. Florida is an old state.
3. is actually the opposite... Trump's base isn't "de-motivated" but the Democratic base was "de-motivated" last time. 2020 will probably be historic turnout, but that favors Democrats because there are more of them. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:32 PM Author: Pale pocket flask station I'd say his biggest weakness is that he cares too much about the american people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101528) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:33 PM Author: dashing library blood rage American people who live in red states.
- FTFY |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:34 PM Author: bearded home Yeah. And the America first message is violent, white supremacist and basically a declaration of war on brown people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101541) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:37 PM Author: Stimulating twisted queen of the night senate jews HATE America First because of Charles Lindbergh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101565) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:42 PM Author: khaki appetizing parlour corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101963) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:36 PM Author: Stimulating twisted queen of the night senate 1. The people who are "hurt" by the tax cuts are coastal shitlibs finally having to pay their fair share and not getting SALT deductions. These people were never going to vote for Trump anyway. For what it's worth, H&R Block said that their clients saved on average 25% more than 2017.
2. Healthcare cannot be fixed without a complete collapse of the healthcare & insurance industry.
3. Trump was badly outspent in 2016 and won. He had the lowest dollars spent per vote of any president in a while. Under budget and a head of schedule. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:38 PM Author: Maize Talented Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101578) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:43 PM Author: indigo fighting dysfunction hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101619) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:44 PM Author: Blue bipolar incel location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101635) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:46 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend 1. You are technically right, but perception is reality. Polls show that most Americans are dissatisfied with the tax cuts.
2. No reason why you think healthcare will help the GOP in 2020.
3. In 2016 the media and the liberal elite were asleep at the wheel because they assumed an easy Hillary victory. They are not making the same mistake in 2020. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:59 PM Author: Stimulating twisted queen of the night senate nigger (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101755) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:17 PM Author: Primrose useless brakes keepsake machete Agreed re: 1. The story is what matters re: taxes. We keep getting dumber. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101841) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:05 PM Author: dashing library blood rage this is the most idiotic post on this board in quite some time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101784) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:29 PM Author: Ruddy nursing home Not since your last post Paulie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102191) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:41 PM Author: Apoplectic Cumskin Coffee Pot (3) is stupid. It didn't hurt him in 2016 and the media is now even more beholden to giving him free coverage for every thought and tweet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101609) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:43 PM Author: indigo fighting dysfunction hospital Tons of Republicans sat out because they were afraid Trump would start a nuclear war or something. They will vote for him this time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101625) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:43 PM Author: irate cheese-eating death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101628) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:47 PM Author: Abusive Organic Girlfriend No data to back this up. The voters you are talking about went for Dems in 2018 midterms. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101655) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:09 PM Author: indigo fighting dysfunction hospital Maybe in districts where Dems basically ran a conservative. Doesn’t mean anything (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101806) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:06 PM Author: dashing library blood rage except all the data shows that Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout. But as long as you wrote it on the internet, it's out there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101786) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:30 PM Author: Ruddy nursing home Both can be true. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102203) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:44 PM Author: ungodly roommate indian lodge You might be more at home on reddit, JJC (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101631) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:45 PM Author: soul-stirring slate native athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101642) |
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Date: April 18th, 2019 12:36 PM Author: Wonderful chrome institution potus reddit, WSO, PUA forums. pretty much anywhere we want (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38106680) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:48 PM Author: disgusting antidepressant drug telephone Has to be his new slogan. I mean come on. Trump 2020: This time I’ll actually do those things I promised? Not a winning message. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101672) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 1:56 PM Author: indecent sepia national It comes down to this: If Dems nominate Biden or Bernie, they have a chance. If they nominate anyone else, they will lose.
Everyone else in the field is appalling to the GOP / Trumpmos and will ensure the same base level of support for Trump that existed in 2016. Add to that a big chunk of Never Trumpers who will vote Trump in 2020 because he has been normalized— he hasn’t blown up the planet while POTUS, the world is still spinning on its axis, and he delivered on SCOTUS.
Some things to keep in mind:
1) No one in the Dem field is going to significantly drive minority turnout to 2012 levels— not even Harris.
2) Biden stands a chance because he was Obama’s VP and because of his (now mostly phony) working class affect. But there could be major skeletons in the closet there, which would be exposed either during the primary or by Trump and the National Enquirer. What we have seen already is cringeworthy.
3) Bernie is an intriguing candidate in that he could steal a lot of Trumpmo votes (including on this board). Most Dems would fall in line. The question is whether having two outsiders as the major party nominees— Bernie and Trump— would create a large enough opening for a third party establishment candidate (such as scumbag Romney) to sow chaos.
All in all, the odds still slightly favor Trump. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:06 PM Author: dashing library blood rage *sees long post by Henry Aaron*
*doesn't read* |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:13 PM Author: curious menage loooooool! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102672) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:09 PM Author: Cracking Cowardly Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101805) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 2:44 PM Author: Mentally impaired church building trust fund Cr except this 3rd party nonsense (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101977) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:10 PM Author: chestnut boiling water LJL @ thinking trump is still an "outsider" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102655) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:13 PM Author: curious menage All that time and energy spent writing something so stupid and non-responsive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102675) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:15 PM Author: Judgmental crimson bawdyhouse Is this really WLMAS? If so, fucking LOL you stupid, drunken nig! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102686) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:18 PM Author: Violent exhilarant orchestra pit Henry, you forgot that you started this post as "Voodoo Child" this time!
**Whomp Whomp** |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:19 PM Author: curious menage jfc, this man makes it too easy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102715) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:22 PM Author: Judgmental crimson bawdyhouse Is this really WLMAS? Holy fuck dude you are one dumb fucking nig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102735) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:19 PM Author: Judgmental crimson bawdyhouse Dude, you’re fucking deranged. Please seek help ASAP. You getting banned will be the best thing that could happen to you (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102716) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:49 PM Author: Blue bipolar incel location Surprised you came back (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102830) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 6:05 PM Author: Judgmental crimson bawdyhouse That spook should be shamed into retirement (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102873) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:17 PM Author: Violent exhilarant orchestra pit (low iq schtick) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102703) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 8:08 PM Author: indecent sepia national You’re pumo. So who gives a fuck what you think? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38103389) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:10 PM Author: Motley vengeful forum It's important to remember that 95% of voters in the US are far less autistic than the average XO politics threader. They will basically vote based on whether or not they think the economy is worse. 2+%GDP growth over the next six quarters = Trump wins comfortably (300+ EVs), 1.5-1.99% toss up, but leans Trump, 1-1.49% leans heavier to the Dem unless the Dem is a SPS politician like Harris or Warren, sub-1% Trump is toast. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102116) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:12 PM Author: Laughsome hell People don’t vote on GDP anymore.
If rural white turnout is high Trump can win.
If minority and city turnout is high Trump can’t win. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:15 PM Author: ungodly roommate indian lodge cr it's identity politics all the way down (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102132) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:14 PM Author: dashing library blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102676) |
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Date: April 18th, 2019 11:04 AM Author: Motley vengeful forum You’re describing whites without college degrees voting behavior as if it’s all whites. College educated whites voted majority Dem in 2018 and swung the most from GOP to Dem from 2015-18. They are the largest potential swing group available given all the tribal currents you describe in US politics today. College educated whites, especially in prime earning years (so basically older millennial students and Gen X) are most likely to swing based on the economy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38106087) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 3:23 PM Author: Pink multi-colored jewess After trump selling out the white race caring about another election again is lower IQ than caring about who wins the latest reality tv show (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102165) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:09 PM Author: chestnut boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102647) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:14 PM Author: Judgmental crimson bawdyhouse Well JJC, you’ve certainly been right in the past... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102680) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 5:20 PM Author: Umber Odious Main People Business Firm bernie is actually his toughest opponent, because trump is vulnerable on his populist flank. if you look at his support, he's a lot more popular with self-described "conservatives" than he was in 2016, but at the cost of the disengaged white midwestern voters who turned out for him that year.
trying to run against "socialism" as a nebulous concept is going to fail badly, because a lot of people under the age of 40 or so are completely jaundiced on "capitalism." this is why trump needs to break away from his cuckservative "handlers" and sell his own message again. |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 6:24 PM Author: irate cheese-eating death wish This is idiotic. Other than politics obsessed weirdos, no Trump voters will go to Bernie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102934) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 7:02 PM Author: indecent sepia national WLMAS was badly BTFO ITT. Why is he still alive? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38103088) |