2. Healthcare: it crushed the GOP in 2018 and unless Trump can present a better plan AND successfully sell it (his weak communication skills will hurt him), this will spell doom in 2020.

3. Money: Trump will be badly outspent due to Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and Wall Street donating significant large sums to Dems. Trump's base is poor whites who can barely afford a night out at Applebees.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101460)

This is a weird year though that seems to be more about the enthusiasm of the bases rather than which way moderates will go.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101527)

and polls are showing people think the Supreme Court is too conservative now.

Trump's only big selling point is the stock market right now, but that's risky to tout because it could drop next year.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101483)

You and Hillary: Not POTUS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101515)

(1) demographics has weakened against the Republicans even more than 2016

(2) felon voter legalization in Florida and Virginia, as well as

(3) a de-motivated base because Trump hasn't fulfilled campaign promises on immigration and trade.

It's Democrat's win for the taking as long as they nominate Biden or Buttgag and not Kamala or Bernie (which D's will still probably win but it's riskier).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101501)

Demographics favor Democrats more in 2020 than in 2016. Borders are open.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101559)

Who cares? Serious q. She could have won by 10%. It is like saying "well, team whatever took 10x the shots on goal of the other team", despite the other team getting more goals.

"Demographics favor Democrats more in 2020 than in 2016. Borders are open."

Illegals are likely to concentrate even more in already existing shitlib areas that are less cooperative with ICE. So yes, I could totally envision the shitlib winning even more of the popular vote while continuing to get trounced in the EC and losing the election in a landslide.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101588)

Shit, DEMS took the Governor's mansion in PA & Michigan in 2018.

Those states are definitely IN PLAY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102658)

The electoral college really favors Republicans.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101599)

Do you not understand that the opposing party runs a bunch of moderates after losing the presidential election?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102187)

1) cr

2) long term cr.... but Florida gop is in the fight of their lives to delay implementation and may push it back past 2020.

3) i actually don't think this a big issue outside of alt right/xo/online type crowds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101569)

2. I think Florida GOP is safe for a while. Biggest predictor in the election was age. Florida is an old state.

3. is actually the opposite... Trump's base isn't "de-motivated" but the Democratic base was "de-motivated" last time. 2020 will probably be historic turnout, but that favors Democrats because there are more of them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101779)

- FTFY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101530)

2. Healthcare cannot be fixed without a complete collapse of the healthcare & insurance industry.

3. Trump was badly outspent in 2016 and won. He had the lowest dollars spent per vote of any president in a while. Under budget and a head of schedule.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101552)

2. No reason why you think healthcare will help the GOP in 2020.

3. In 2016 the media and the liberal elite were asleep at the wheel because they assumed an easy Hillary victory. They are not making the same mistake in 2020.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101649)

Everyone else in the field is appalling to the GOP / Trumpmos and will ensure the same base level of support for Trump that existed in 2016. Add to that a big chunk of Never Trumpers who will vote Trump in 2020 because he has been normalized— he hasn’t blown up the planet while POTUS, the world is still spinning on its axis, and he delivered on SCOTUS.

Some things to keep in mind:

1) No one in the Dem field is going to significantly drive minority turnout to 2012 levels— not even Harris.

2) Biden stands a chance because he was Obama’s VP and because of his (now mostly phony) working class affect. But there could be major skeletons in the closet there, which would be exposed either during the primary or by Trump and the National Enquirer. What we have seen already is cringeworthy.

3) Bernie is an intriguing candidate in that he could steal a lot of Trumpmo votes (including on this board). Most Dems would fall in line. The question is whether having two outsiders as the major party nominees— Bernie and Trump— would create a large enough opening for a third party establishment candidate (such as scumbag Romney) to sow chaos.

All in all, the odds still slightly favor Trump.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101725)

*doesn't read*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38101789)

**Whomp Whomp**

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102706)

If rural white turnout is high Trump can win.

If minority and city turnout is high Trump can’t win.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102124)

trying to run against "socialism" as a nebulous concept is going to fail badly, because a lot of people under the age of 40 or so are completely jaundiced on "capitalism." this is why trump needs to break away from his cuckservative "handlers" and sell his own message again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4243551&forum_id=2#38102718)