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Nate Silver: Trump making huge gains on home stretch
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 27th, 2020 9:52 AM Author: Stirring Haunting Nowag Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994723) |
Date: September 27th, 2020 9:54 AM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Spectacular Field Digit Ratio He tweeted this yesterday:
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 15h Overall, there's plenty of good news in here for Biden. But his lead slipping quite a bit in Florida, and also by a point or two in Pennsylvania, makes his path more treacherous than it otherwise would be. |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 10:18 AM Author: Boyish wrinkle https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994808) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 10:40 AM Author: Stirring Haunting Nowag Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994875) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:06 PM Author: lemon corner "That remains our outlook today in our final forecast of the year. Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model." (Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, 2016)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/09/the-wrongest-media-predictions-about-donald-trump/ |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 2:01 PM Author: Stirring Haunting Nowag Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995709) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 10:45 AM Author: hateful nudist voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994895) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 12:35 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Spectacular Field Digit Ratio So you mean Nate Silver was also the most accurate in 2016? And that he in fact predicted a systemic polling problem could mean Trump would narrowly win the swing states? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995318) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:24 PM Author: mewling step-uncle's house LA times was most accurate - I checked a lot of those poll aggregator websites and this time they don’t have LA Times polls up anymore? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995516) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:23 PM Author: Lascivious obsidian chapel lol wtf, these are the exact same projections for Biden. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995515) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 10:20 AM Author: Ultramarine soul-stirring sound barrier stage What's he going to be doing after the election now that Penn Station half empty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994814) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 11:03 AM Author: Stirring Haunting Nowag Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994958) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 11:04 AM Author: scarlet passionate brunch mood at least he has options (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994960) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 10:41 AM Author: Talented misanthropic pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994883) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 11:03 AM Author: maroon parlour How can Biden even have a shot at winning? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40994957) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:13 PM Author: Excitant territorial stag film ? Biden's killing Trump and will be the next president (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995466) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:16 PM Author: Nubile philosopher-king abode Date: September 27th, 2020 1:13 PM Author: :.;;.;...;;
? Biden's killing Trump and will be the next president
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995466) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:17 PM Author: flatulent useless brakes business firm same nate silver that predicted a clinton victory in 2016? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995482) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:19 PM Author: Excitant territorial stag film Clinton got the most votes by a lot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995493) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:21 PM Author: olive fragrant preventive strike trust fund Oh I thought his job was predicting elections. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995497) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:29 PM Author: blue set Wrong. As always. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995533) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:30 PM Author: Dashing base organic girlfriend Gibberish, you got obeezy’s alternate pumo mad at you. He must really mean business! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995542) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:23 PM Author: Primrose Legend He gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. Underdogs win occasionally. Will Trump win again this year? It’s a bigger challenge but sure. He’s an underdog again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995512) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:26 PM Author: flatulent useless brakes business firm sounds like we are in agreement Mr. Silver is probably wrong again (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4634412&forum_id=2#40995525) |
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Date: September 27th, 2020 1:26 PM Author: Lascivious obsidian chapel it comes down to the same three states that swung the election towards Trump. MI, WI, and PA. Trump just needs one, while Biden needs to flip MI & WI or PA. One big difference between now and 2016 is that Biden much more likable than Hilary and he's from PA. |