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Nate silver has to be absolutely shitting his pants right now.

Even if he remains committed to his forecast, there is a 13%...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Hasnt had credibility since 2016
Burgundy concupiscible nowag
  10/27/20
Agree but he’s been able to lisp about 30%. If this on...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Look Nate Plastic is a faggot who I hope gets corncobbed nex...
180 generalized bond
  10/27/20
Lmao which one of us is revising history? Who did he predict...
Burgundy concupiscible nowag
  10/27/20
The only thing that matters is your predictions relative to ...
180 generalized bond
  10/27/20
The judge ALMOST granted our motion for summary judgment. Yo...
drab fragrant jap preventive strike
  10/27/20
He brought it upon himself. He's been really bad about chang...
Stimulating peach site
  10/27/20
It's nuts that his claim to fame is 49/50. Probably 25 or 30...
drab fragrant jap preventive strike
  10/27/20
...
hairless ceo
  10/27/20
...
Pontificating genital piercing
  10/27/20
That's true of every election for him. There's no escaping t...
Lascivious house
  10/27/20
Lol. Nobody pays attention to midterms and they’re mor...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Midterms are actually harder to predict. More potential for ...
Lascivious house
  10/27/20
Can't he just say Trump got lucky with the 13%?
at-the-ready comical quadroon garrison
  10/27/20
He already did that with Hillary. Do you know the probabilit...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
390 percent seems high
Arousing Church Cuckoldry
  10/27/20
Think you’re calculator is broken breh
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
...
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
...
apoplectic crimson pit roommate
  10/27/20
...
beady-eyed slimy persian brunch
  10/27/20
Do all the people blank bumping this think this is not the c...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
you seem to be having a meltdown in this thread lil breh
costumed trip queen of the night faggotry
  10/27/20
Nah brej I’m loling at math illiterate lawyers who don...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
i wonder what bumps mean on this chatboard
costumed trip queen of the night faggotry
  10/27/20
tbf it’s hard to tell. In 2007 I would’ve assume...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
lol
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
Nah he's right
Hot flushed turdskin location
  10/27/20
If I'm interpreting this correctly, the math gives Trump thr...
apoplectic crimson pit roommate
  10/27/20
...
thriller violet background story
  10/27/20
(Hillary voter)
Fantasy-prone Sneaky Criminal
  10/27/20
...
dashing up-to-no-good meetinghouse
  10/27/20
...
Soul-stirring goyim
  10/27/20
genuine lol.
Bateful harsh police squad fat ankles
  10/27/20
(mook)
Marvelous theater stage stain
  10/27/20
...
Stimulating peach site
  10/27/20
clearly you went to law school
Curious Rehab Telephone
  10/28/20
...
Orange Cerebral Rigor
  11/03/20
50/50 it either happens or it doesn't bro
Nudist headpube
  10/27/20
The problem is that it makes zero sense the way he frames it...
Orchid deep plaza
  10/27/20
The problem is that there is no way to actually verify after...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
Yeah but you can peg the odds he was “right” abo...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
I don’t think that’s how it works man.
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
It’s exactly how it works. Do you probability at all?
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
That’s not how you determine the odds he was “ri...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
(dumb faggot)
Hot flushed turdskin location
  10/27/20
Ok you so spot him a few points for being wrong that both ev...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
My point is that you can’t actually prove he was wrong...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
I’m saying it’s not a sample size or of one, it&...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
You’ve got to be flame. If you bought a powerball t...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
Much less likely to be wrong because you (presumably) gave ...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Wow, this subthread is embarrassing for you. I’ll be n...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
You’re right except you have it backwards. State your ...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
You do realize the difference between the lottery ticket and...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
Why don’t you help me. If I predict mike trout has a 1...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
If you predicted Trout had a 30% chance of a hit in his firs...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
The more often the model predicts events have low probabilit...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
You got completely pwned.
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
Lol
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
You’ve been exposed.
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
There's a very clear difference there. To use your baseball ...
Lascivious house
  10/27/20
And that doubt disappears more and more over time when the o...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Do you recognize the difference between n=2 and n=100?
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
So literally all you’re saying now is that we know mor...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
“Far more probable than not” Show your math ...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
I’ve explained this to you thoroughly. If you have a m...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
God you are retarded.
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
Just gay actually
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
dude, c'mon! lol.
Lascivious house
  10/27/20
State your math background.
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Based on your logic, how was Nate Silver any more right than...
drab fragrant jap preventive strike
  10/27/20
Hey retard still awaiting your analysis here. Is my model ve...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
I’m working on actual work lol. Will reply.
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
His argument is that nate's model is not falsifiable. We don...
Lascivious house
  10/27/20
It doesn’t matter that it’s not falsifiable &mda...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
You can’t prove it’s incorrect just because a th...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
It’s not about “proving” it’s incorr...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
You can’t make that determination with a n=2. And you ...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
Actually you can. Well not exactly you have to add back the ...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
...
flesh balding area
  10/27/20
no, your calculation was meaningless. in reality, that tick...
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
Just jump before the ticket wins.
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
As to "any given ticket" I guess your calculation ...
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
I think Nate Silver would argue his job is to accurately pre...
hyperventilating jade stage reading party
  10/27/20
There is no point of him giving odds. The point of beyesian ...
drab fragrant jap preventive strike
  10/27/20
Why don't you explain you annoying faggot
Hot flushed turdskin location
  10/27/20
actually he was wrong twice which is 0% HTH
Fantasy-prone Sneaky Criminal
  10/27/20
It's true that you can do this, but it's still incredibly sk...
Orchid deep plaza
  10/27/20
is it right in your view to say that what hes doing is selec...
Infuriating sanctuary wrinkle
  10/27/20
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-en...
Orchid deep plaza
  10/27/20
Everything is fate. Probability is an artificial construct t...
Rose buck-toothed native
  10/27/20
it's just useless to model human behavior. works great for e...
Fantasy-prone Sneaky Criminal
  10/27/20
...
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
i remember when libs treated him as the election instead of ...
Exhilarant Aqua Patrolman Messiness
  10/27/20
lol no, even if trump won he'd still keep doing his same sht...
beady-eyed slimy persian brunch
  10/27/20
...
bonkers olive hominid
  10/27/20
...
Contagious sooty digit ratio coffee pot
  10/27/20
what's his 'model'? just some linear regression?
thriller violet background story
  10/27/20
his model shows that if Trump is within a few points of Rhod...
avocado hairraiser selfie locale
  10/27/20
And that Trump could win CA but Biden still has a good chanc...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Nate Silver will suffer zero consequences for being wrong ...
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
...
beady-eyed slimy persian brunch
  10/27/20
so much this
provocative snowy gaping public bath
  10/27/20
Donna Brazile too. Multi-time loser as a POTUS campaign mana...
Tantric Pale Tanning Salon
  10/27/20
-- and then got hired BY FOX OF ALL PLACES
Bateful harsh police squad fat ankles
  10/27/20
He doesn't have enough of a foothold in either ideological c...
Lascivious house
  10/27/20
Cr. And also the palliative value of a pollster is tied dire...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
What is his ideology? I know he's a climate change skepti...
flesh balding area
  10/27/20
Intuitively I agree with you - but I think we're underestima...
Orchid deep plaza
  10/27/20
...
vivacious son of senegal
  10/27/20
so true. but i some point i concluded that being wrong ...
Bateful harsh police squad fat ankles
  10/27/20
13% chance turning into 50/50
Tantric Pale Tanning Salon
  10/27/20
Why his job is to tell libs what they want to hear
Magical razzle dog poop pisswyrm
  10/27/20
Cr but it will lose its palliative effect if he’s alwa...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
Let's see where his prediction slides on election Eve.
at-the-ready comical quadroon garrison
  10/27/20
...
Glittery Light Theater
  10/27/20
what's his clique?
thriller violet background story
  10/27/20
it's bad. real bad.
Blue round eye
  10/27/20
...
Swashbuckling Lilac Stage
  10/27/20
xoxo is so stunningly bad when it comes to statistics, it's ...
Talented Death Wish
  10/27/20
Look out guys, we have a STATISTICIAN here!
Haunting milk people who are hurt
  10/27/20
math major and former stats teacher here care to elabora...
Aromatic Wine French Chef
  10/27/20
...
Rough-skinned degenerate
  10/27/20
just do punditry and say everything is a 50/50 chance, bro
outnumbered adventurous temple filthpig
  10/27/20
Nate Silver is a fucking FRAUD. Barnes is on it. Silver...
Aromatic Wine French Chef
  10/27/20
nah dude its all good check out this infographic no way some...
Infuriating sanctuary wrinkle
  10/27/20
cr
beta plum boltzmann
  10/27/20
It's true that you can do this, but it's still incredibly sk...
Orchid deep plaza
  10/27/20
thank you 🙏
Aromatic Wine French Chef
  10/27/20
Real q: what is the point of him hiding that ball this way? ...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
he's a charlatan
avocado hairraiser selfie locale
  10/27/20
Don't get me wrong, it's not completely obvious how we *shou...
Orchid deep plaza
  10/27/20
How was he supposed to predict putin would hack the election...
at-the-ready comical quadroon garrison
  10/27/20
Cr. He's probably nervous about the election results too
Heady crusty travel guidebook
  10/27/20
...
khaki duck-like weed whacker principal's office
  10/27/20
...
vivacious son of senegal
  10/27/20
...
Purple wonderful pervert university
  10/27/20
...
beta plum boltzmann
  10/27/20
...
appetizing parlour
  11/02/20
I’ve been a Long time listener to his podcast. He&rsqu...
spectacular base old irish cottage
  10/27/20
fuck Nate Silver. I almost hate him as much as I hate Trump...
brass menage
  10/27/20
hope nate doesnt do anything drastic tomorrow
Purple wonderful pervert university
  11/02/20
Nate Aluminum already hedged and said "Blormpf only has...
Seedy blathering bawdyhouse
  11/02/20
...
Rough-skinned degenerate
  11/02/20
LOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLL
Purple wonderful pervert university
  11/03/20
...
charismatic nighttime abode
  11/03/20
...
boyish offensive church building
  11/03/20
...
Rough-skinned degenerate
  11/03/20


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:16 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Even if he remains committed to his forecast, there is a 13% chance his credibility is completely shot. And deep down he knows it’s higher.

Nobody is going to care about any of his lisping or details about how akshually i gave him a 13% chance after the fact if Trump wins, given Hillary. He is all in and he knows it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198675)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:18 PM
Author: Burgundy concupiscible nowag

Hasnt had credibility since 2016

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198686)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:19 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Agree but he’s been able to lisp about 30%. If this one is 12% and Biden loses its over over

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198696)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:34 PM
Author: 180 generalized bond

Look Nate Plastic is a faggot who I hope gets corncobbed next week but let's not revise history. He actually made the "markets" his bitch in the 2016 general election. Bookmakers had implied odds of ~15% for Trump the morning of the election. He also stood firm in the face of liberal media outlets forecasting 99% and talking shit on him for having Trump too high.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198839)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:10 PM
Author: Burgundy concupiscible nowag

Lmao which one of us is revising history? Who did he predict was going to win?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199666)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:24 PM
Author: 180 generalized bond

The only thing that matters is your predictions relative to the market. Nate destroyed the market in 2016. He should gain credibility for his performance in the 2016 general

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199802)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 8:19 PM
Author: drab fragrant jap preventive strike

The judge ALMOST granted our motion for summary judgment. You should applaud me, client.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200872)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:21 PM
Author: Stimulating peach site

He brought it upon himself. He's been really bad about changing his model on the fly once it stops making sense, but now I think he has nowhere to run. It's been nearly a decade since he "called 49/50 states"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198713)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 8:20 PM
Author: drab fragrant jap preventive strike

It's nuts that his claim to fame is 49/50. Probably 25 or 30 percent of poasters can do that each election.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200882)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 10:08 PM
Author: hairless ceo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41201822)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:24 PM
Author: Pontificating genital piercing



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198747)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:27 PM
Author: Lascivious house

That's true of every election for him. There's no escaping the nature of his business. He probably had the same feeling before the 2018 election. A bad call there and it would have been two in a row.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198767)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:29 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Lol. Nobody pays attention to midterms and they’re more predictable since only hardcore voters vote. To repeat: no one gives a fuck about 2018 - Nate is all in now to redeem 2016 and he knows it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198788)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:35 PM
Author: Lascivious house

Midterms are actually harder to predict. More potential for polling misses. And yes, 2018 mattered in that he had to get it right. No one would even be paying attention to polls or his model if he whiffed in 2018.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198842)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:30 PM
Author: at-the-ready comical quadroon garrison

Can't he just say Trump got lucky with the 13%?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198799)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:32 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

He already did that with Hillary. Do you know the probability of a 30% chance event being followed by a 13% chance event?

Hint: multiply 30% x 13%.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198812)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:33 PM
Author: Arousing Church Cuckoldry

390 percent seems high

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198827)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:34 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Think you’re calculator is broken breh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198838)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:35 PM
Author: Blue round eye



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198853)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:39 PM
Author: apoplectic crimson pit roommate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198886)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:42 PM
Author: beady-eyed slimy persian brunch



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198918)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:46 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Do all the people blank bumping this think this is not the correct math? Are you all stupid?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198953)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:47 PM
Author: costumed trip queen of the night faggotry

you seem to be having a meltdown in this thread lil breh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198967)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:48 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Nah brej I’m loling at math illiterate lawyers who don’t know math bumping eAch others wrong math. It’s lulzy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198978)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:52 PM
Author: costumed trip queen of the night faggotry

i wonder what bumps mean on this chatboard

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199009)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:55 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

tbf it’s hard to tell. In 2007 I would’ve assumed it was a joke but in 2020 most of xo is fully retarded. At least some of these blankbumps are morons for sure

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199039)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:52 PM
Author: Blue round eye

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199011)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:49 PM
Author: Hot flushed turdskin location

Nah he's right

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198986)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 4:55 PM
Author: apoplectic crimson pit roommate

If I'm interpreting this correctly, the math gives Trump three terms with a 90% of a 4th

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199540)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 4:16 PM
Author: thriller violet background story



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199201)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 4:27 PM
Author: Fantasy-prone Sneaky Criminal

(Hillary voter)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199311)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 4:38 PM
Author: dashing up-to-no-good meetinghouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199414)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:08 PM
Author: Soul-stirring goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199648)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:15 PM
Author: Bateful harsh police squad fat ankles

genuine lol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199702)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:57 PM
Author: Marvelous theater stage stain

(mook)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200090)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 9:20 PM
Author: Stimulating peach site



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41201402)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 28th, 2020 9:14 AM
Author: Curious Rehab Telephone

clearly you went to law school

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41204175)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:39 PM
Author: Orange Cerebral Rigor



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41260847)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:47 PM
Author: Nudist headpube

50/50 it either happens or it doesn't bro

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198960)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:17 PM
Author: Orchid deep plaza

The problem is that it makes zero sense the way he frames it for his low info audience to understand

A Trump win is not a "15% event happening" , it's not like oh wow we drew a jack of spades what are the odds! Or that it's some stochastic mechanism like a 'random' drawing of a lottery ball, and a low chance event just occurred

Narrating as such to his readers is betraying his own favored philosophy for analysis - bayesian - where it represents a degree of belief in an event occurring, and you update those beliefs by incorporating new data/ info into your set of information

A better analogy would be his model is a measurement device, and it's too low resolution

A Trump victory occurring just puts reality into higher resolution for everyone to see

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199724)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:35 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

The problem is that there is no way to actually verify after the fact that Trump really had a 13% chance or a 50% or 75% chance. It’s all just made up bullshit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198845)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:36 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Yeah but you can peg the odds he was “right” about 30% followed by 13% very easily.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198860)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:38 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

I don’t think that’s how it works man.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198876)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:39 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

It’s exactly how it works. Do you probability at all?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198887)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:42 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

That’s not how you determine the odds he was “right”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198913)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:42 PM
Author: Hot flushed turdskin location

(dumb faggot)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198923)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:44 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Ok you so spot him a few points for being wrong that both events were even LESS likely than he said. Without actually doing the math that’s, what, up to 6% chance his models were “right”?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198938)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:57 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

My point is that you can’t actually prove he was wrong about 2016 because it’s a sample size of one. If I put together some model to predict the odds of a team winning a football game. You run the model for enough games and you eventually have enough of a sample size to prove or disprove that the model works.

If you lived in a world with access to perfect information, you could probably build some sort of model to accurately predict the election with 100% confidence. But polls and all of the information we have are imperfect, so in the real world you can only ever come up with a probability. I’ve only ever argued that Nate Silver’s whole thing is pointless because it’s not falsifiable.

But theoretically, if you somehow did come up with a model that did accurately came up with the correct odds based on all available information and it came out to trump having a 6% chance of winning two terms, then Trump actually winning two terms wouldn’t prove the model was wrong. The Bears won 10 coin tosses in a row last season—-unlikely shit happens.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199069)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:01 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

I’m saying it’s not a sample size or of one, it’s a sample size of 2 and it’s very easy to predict the odds of a 30% event followed by a 12-13% event happening. After 2016 Nate could say a 30% chance doesn’t necessarily mean his model was wrong. 30% isn’t that low of a probability. But that followed by a 12-13% chance means he’s very, very likely wrong. Yeah it’s not fore sure but it’s extremely probable. That’s all anything ever is. If Joe Biden shit his pants in public tomorrow it would “probably” be bad for his campaign but somewhere in the multiverse there a tiny probability everyone would feel more sorry for him.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199106)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:05 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

You’ve got to be flame.

If you bought a powerball ticket and I told you that you had a 99.99999% chance of losing. If you ended up winning, would that mean that my calculation was wrong?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199137)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:08 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Much less likely to be wrong because you (presumably) gave me the same odds as everyone else and 99.99999% of them did lose. That’s not so here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199156)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:11 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

Wow, this subthread is embarrassing for you. I’ll be nice and let you blank your poasts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199171)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:12 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

You’re right except you have it backwards. State your math background.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199179)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:15 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

You do realize the difference between the lottery ticket and example and the election model, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199198)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:21 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Why don’t you help me. If I predict mike trout has a 1% chance of getting a hit every time he walks up to the plate and he bats .300 on the season my hitting model is unfalsifiable so I can’t be wrong, correct?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199248)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:45 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

If you predicted Trout had a 30% chance of a hit in his first at bat and a 13% chance of a hit in his second at bat and he went 2-2, could you confidently say the model was wrong?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199465)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:58 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

The more often the model predicts events have low probability and they occur the more likely it’s incorrect, yes.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199567)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:59 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

You got completely pwned.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199572)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:02 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199598)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:10 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

You’ve been exposed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199660)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:46 PM
Author: Lascivious house

There's a very clear difference there. To use your baseball example, Silver's model is like saying trout has a 30% chance of getting a hit at his next at bat. That's it! Nate's model doesn't go any further than that. So if Trout hits a single, we're sitting here wondering "well, was Nate right?" That's what the poster above is explaining to you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199469)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:56 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

And that doubt disappears more and more over time when the odds he was correct get lower and lower. At the extreme - over hundreds of at bats. At the less extreme - over two elections, not one, if he’s wrong again. Which is the whole point.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199547)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:58 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

Do you recognize the difference between n=2 and n=100?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199563)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:02 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

So literally all you’re saying now is that we know more after 100 than 2? So you’ve had no point all along and you agree with me entirely. Ok then. It’s far more probable nate’s model is wrong than not when you only have 2 Trump elections to go on. And if all you had to go on with mike trout was two at bats where he struck out, no previous career, and you said he would probably bat 300 you’d be likely wrong too.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199595)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:07 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

“Far more probable than not”

Show your math here. This is a completely baseless assumption otherwise.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199637)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:16 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

I’ve explained this to you thoroughly. If you have a model that says there’s a 30% chance the market goes down on day 1, and it does, and then on day 2 says there’s a 12-13% chance it goes down, and it does, and that’s your data set, and you don’t get how this shows there’s very likely something up with your model i can’t help you. Invest away.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199716)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:22 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

God you are retarded.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199778)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:23 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Just gay actually

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199791)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:58 PM
Author: Lascivious house

dude, c'mon! lol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199568)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:03 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

State your math background.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199604)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 8:27 PM
Author: drab fragrant jap preventive strike

Based on your logic, how was Nate Silver any more right than the people who said Trump had a 1 percent chance?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200936)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:38 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Hey retard still awaiting your analysis here. Is my model very probably wrong even if it’s not “falsifiable” or not? Need your help here man. You’re a smart guy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199408)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:40 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

I’m working on actual work lol. Will reply.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199431)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:22 PM
Author: Lascivious house

His argument is that nate's model is not falsifiable. We don't run the election a million times and see how many times trump won. In the lotto ticket example, we can see how many winners and losers there are. I understand what you're saying though. His model looks pointless to your average reader if reality keeps spitting outcomes that were what his model deemed a low probability event. We can't say his model is wrong, but it seems even more pointless than it is.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199262)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:24 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

It doesn’t matter that it’s not falsifiable — it’s not just “pointless” it’s very probably wrong.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199287)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:52 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

You can’t prove it’s incorrect just because a thing with a predicted 6% chance of happening actually happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199508)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:56 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

It’s not about “proving” it’s incorrect it’s about shoeing that it’s very PROBABLY incorrect.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199553)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:59 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

You can’t make that determination with a n=2. And you certainly don’t calculate the odds his model is probably incorrect by multiplying .3 x .13

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199569)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:03 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Actually you can. Well not exactly you have to add back the probability the eventuality both outcomes were even less likely.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199609)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:09 PM
Author: flesh balding area



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199159)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:11 PM
Author: Blue round eye

no, your calculation was meaningless. in reality, that ticket had a 100% chance of winning (it was the winning ticket).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199166)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:13 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

Just jump before the ticket wins.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199180)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:17 PM
Author: Blue round eye

As to "any given ticket" I guess your calculation was right, but as to that ticket it was wrong. and if it's you're job to correctly pick lottery ticket winners (to stretch the metaphor) then you've failed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199213)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:23 PM
Author: hyperventilating jade stage reading party

I think Nate Silver would argue his job is to accurately predict the odds, not the winner. Like I’ve said from the beginning, it’s a pointless exercise because it’s impossible to know whether his model was actually right. A low probability event itself is not proof that the odds were wrong.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199275)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 9:00 PM
Author: drab fragrant jap preventive strike

There is no point of him giving odds. The point of beyesian probability is to pick winners.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41201208)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:42 PM
Author: Hot flushed turdskin location

Why don't you explain you annoying faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198914)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:28 PM
Author: Fantasy-prone Sneaky Criminal

actually he was wrong twice which is 0% HTH

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199319)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:30 PM
Author: Orchid deep plaza

It's true that you can do this, but it's still incredibly sketchy b/c it's still very dishonest the way he presents it

The validation he provides on his "predictions" aren't actually predictions at all - if you look at what he puts out - it will be like "out of events our model predicted would come true with at least 0.8 probability, 87% of the time these events actually did come true"

This is very deceptive presenting this as validation - another way to translate what I just said was "out of events that were overwhelmingly obvious they would come true, 87% of the time they actually came true"

He's only validating a high threshold of precision which actually excludes a huge set of events in that field

What it doesn't tell you is "out of all events that actually came true, what % of these events did our model *predict* would come true"?

The reason he doesn't give this is why Taleb / anyone w/ statistical training and balls enough to speak out publicly against him (small set of ppl in the world) have criticized him relentlessly - b/c all he's doing is what i said originally , he's not actually willing to make *predictions* by giving a decision boundary on the model in the form of a threshold for the probability , implicitly 0.5 but by no means does it have to be 0.5, by which to say above this threshold the event is predicted yes/true, below is predicted no/false - doing this would allow actual validation as to the quality of his models, and it's not surprising the article we saw the other day showing using his model loses 6% over going w/ long-odds in soccer matches using his soccer predictions - ie one of the areas he CAN be validated in is his soccer model b/c it outputs expected goals, and it gives you a return of -6% against long-odds from that site that wrote the article

What he's doing when he puts out "validation" is he's cranking up the threshold to 0.9, restricting the validation set to only events that are easy to predict instead of all events, and saying "every time our model predicted the Dodgers would beat the Pirates, the dodgers won 94% of those games"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199860)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:33 PM
Author: Infuriating sanctuary wrinkle

is it right in your view to say that what hes doing is selecting from the space of all possible combinations of say 100 degrees of freedom the combinations that contains events he thinks are likely, and then reporting the number of times biden wins vs trump in that pre-selected set? this seems absolutely dumb as hell

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199893)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:03 PM
Author: Orchid deep plaza

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-engineering-the-problematic-tail-behavior-of-the-fivethirtyeight-presidential-election-forecast/

Yeah that's more or less what's happening - and as you point out the degrees of freedom restriction that small ends up w/ some weird stuff - but it's all ultimately proprietary so nobody really knows , but what's especially puzzling b/c one of the largest benefits of Bayesian models are the transparency and flexibility to specify variance components , and incorporate outside information into the model

if you read through this and skim the comments especially, he definitely has some explaining to do when the basic mechanics of his model work like this....

As has been pointed out - he ends up with situations like Trump winning CA but only having 44% chance of winning the election , similarly w/ Biden taking alabama, or biden having greater chance of winning Alaska than trump of HOLDING MI, or Washington state being negatively correlated w/ Alabama

Or trump winning new jersey makes his chance of winning Alaska 58%, wtf?

The article I linked is a 100% must read IMO

What jumps out to me is Gelman showing how low the between state correlations are, translating to some weird ass tail behavior like trump winning CA but losing election

There's all kinds of weird artifacts - Gelman is being polite and asking "whether i had an error in my code" - you have to read between the lines of this article in our current environment of lib groupthink, this article translates to something more like a bomb than a polite inquiry once you adjust for that

Most suspiciously - Gelman brings up how low the between state correlations are, often being negative! weird tail behavior, and too weak of correlation even in the center - why is this significant? Well it's suspect as hell for the exact reason we're in right now - it's becoming more and more clear that Trump's chances of winning FL are way higher than anybody thought , and if we were to be told right now Trump wins FL, I think most of us would place Trump at > 0.5 to win the election..... So it's suspicious that in a year where we might have information like this on a state like FL b/c of expanded EV - that his model is behaving like this, that his statements to gelman make little sense, etc, it's suspicious b/c his model doesn't have to move any even if say FL looks DISASTROUS for Biden.

What it looks like to me in the media / pollsters etc - is that all bets are off this year - and they'll risk anything to suppress counter-narratives so they can basically suppress turnout on the right making ppl think it's over - which obvious won't work b/c they don't monopolize media modes like they used to.

But the article and comments are a must read IMO

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200129)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:13 PM
Author: Rose buck-toothed native

Everything is fate. Probability is an artificial construct that we use to quantify what we don’t know.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199182)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:28 PM
Author: Fantasy-prone Sneaky Criminal

it's just useless to model human behavior. works great for everything else

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199324)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:35 PM
Author: Blue round eye



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199389)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:31 PM
Author: Exhilarant Aqua Patrolman Messiness

i remember when libs treated him as the election instead of the actual election

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198807)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:32 PM
Author: beady-eyed slimy persian brunch

lol no, even if trump won he'd still keep doing his same shtick and libs would still worship him as the gold standard of "objectivity." absolutely nothing would change

you still don't get it man

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198816)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:39 PM
Author: bonkers olive hominid



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198889)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:55 PM
Author: Contagious sooty digit ratio coffee pot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199045)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:33 PM
Author: thriller violet background story

what's his 'model'? just some linear regression?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198822)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:34 PM
Author: avocado hairraiser selfie locale

his model shows that if Trump is within a few points of Rhode Island, Trump is losing Mississippi and South Dakota

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198836)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:35 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

And that Trump could win CA but Biden still has a good chance of winning nationally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198851)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:35 PM
Author: Blue round eye

Nate Silver will suffer zero consequences for being wrong

one of the fascinating aspects of American punditry is that you can be wrong again and again and AGAIN and it doesn't matter. witness the Lincoln Project faggots all of whom, in a just world, would be in federal prison. Instead they are milking out million$

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198849)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 3:41 PM
Author: beady-eyed slimy persian brunch



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198902)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:43 PM
Author: provocative snowy gaping public bath

so much this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198929)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:45 PM
Author: Tantric Pale Tanning Salon

Donna Brazile too. Multi-time loser as a POTUS campaign manager/DNC leader --> multi millionaire "strategist" and hack leaker of debate questions

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198948)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:14 PM
Author: Bateful harsh police squad fat ankles

-- and then got hired BY FOX OF ALL PLACES

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199696)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:02 PM
Author: Lascivious house

He doesn't have enough of a foothold in either ideological camp to play that game. The few times he's talked about his own political leanings, he's drawn fire from the left. He's not some popular talk-show host, gifted writer, or exciting ideological firebrand. If polling fails this election then he's done; maybe a frank luntz future at best.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199107)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:06 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Cr. And also the palliative value of a pollster is tied directly to his credibility. He can’t assuage fears if he’s primarily in the business of making predictions that are wrong.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199144)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:12 PM
Author: flesh balding area

What is his ideology?

I know he's a climate change skeptic (insofar as libs blame EVERYTHING from hurricanes, floods, and fires on "climate change," with no evidence of causation). Where else does he stray from liberal orthodoxy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199178)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:45 PM
Author: Orchid deep plaza

Intuitively I agree with you - but I think we're underestimating his ability to walk back the model as we get closer to election day and it gets higher resolution what will actually happen

If he really sticks to his guns / polls hardcore, I think you're right, mostly b/c his main purpose being served right now is *therapeutic*, not analytic. Take a trip through his website comments or twitter comments - it's like a cult, anybody trying to debate him in there they literally regurgitate his talking points, and you can tell they're heavily coping. Of course we all do that to some degree - but the level of certainty and how much they lionize him is obvious that they're needing to believe he's right to extremes way beyond what any of us would need to.

Anything can happen, but he can just as easily walk back the predictions, blame bad polling, explain it as "low probability event just like i said was possible, etc" - part of me thinks this is possible, part thinks *no fucking way* he gets away w/ that this time given how furious ppl would be w/ him for false belief if Trump ends up winning

It's hard to tell what'll happen - our arguments about polling aside, we also shouldn't underestimate the gatekeeping effect. Part of what they talk about on the PPD webcast is that despite having a clear track record of outperforming literally every single pollster out there, aggregators, left-leaning polls, right-leaning polls etc - the polling 'establishment' refuses to include PPD, or even engage with them / return their calls. He's definitely a Trumpmo - but in 2018 he predicted DeSantis and gosh what was the other upset, while at the same time telling Republicans they're overestimating their house performances and he wasn't getting the results ras / trafalgar etc were getting in the house - even sounding the alarm early in the night when it looked like Dems would massively underperform all around he said no by the early results he could tell.

I think his audience will blow up after being right and he'll get more funding (he's funded by small donations of followers) - but Baris will not get the official creds needed to be considered a "serious" pollster by Silver/Wasserman/Cohen etc, regardless of how well he performs....



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200002)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:14 PM
Author: vivacious son of senegal



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199183)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:13 PM
Author: Bateful harsh police squad fat ankles

so true.

but i some point i concluded that being wrong over and over is the price of admission to the elite-insider game. it's how to show that you will do the necessary work.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199692)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:36 PM
Author: Tantric Pale Tanning Salon

13% chance turning into 50/50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198858)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:37 PM
Author: Magical razzle dog poop pisswyrm

Why his job is to tell libs what they want to hear

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198871)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:39 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Cr but it will lose its palliative effect if he’s always wrong. Some other fag who’s been right in the past and wants to tell them what they want to hear will fill the void.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198881)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:40 PM
Author: at-the-ready comical quadroon garrison

Let's see where his prediction slides on election Eve.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198893)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 3:40 PM
Author: Glittery Light Theater



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41198897)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:07 PM
Author: thriller violet background story

what's his clique?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199153)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:11 PM
Author: Blue round eye

it's bad. real bad.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199173)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:17 PM
Author: Swashbuckling Lilac Stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199727)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:10 PM
Author: Talented Death Wish

xoxo is so stunningly bad when it comes to statistics, it's sad.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199165)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:21 PM
Author: Haunting milk people who are hurt

Look out guys, we have a STATISTICIAN here!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199255)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:14 PM
Author: Aromatic Wine French Chef

math major and former stats teacher here

care to elaborate?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199698)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:11 PM
Author: Rough-skinned degenerate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199170)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 4:23 PM
Author: outnumbered adventurous temple filthpig

just do punditry and say everything is a 50/50 chance, bro

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199270)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:13 PM
Author: Aromatic Wine French Chef

Nate Silver is a fucking FRAUD.

Barnes is on it. Silver knows about many of the frauds committed by the mainstream media and univ polling outfits.

He needs to be sued.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199693)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:15 PM
Author: Infuriating sanctuary wrinkle

nah dude its all good check out this infographic no way something so condescending could be wrong. i for one am glad he visualized what 12% means or i wouldve been lost

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElVyS25WoAA6G2Z?format=jpg&name=small

https://www.gstatic.com/tv/thumb/persons/685771/685771_v9_aa.jpg

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199705)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 5:20 PM
Author: beta plum boltzmann

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199751)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:31 PM
Author: Orchid deep plaza

It's true that you can do this, but it's still incredibly sketchy b/c it's still very dishonest the way he presents it

The validation he provides on his "predictions" aren't actually predictions at all - if you look at what he puts out - it will be like "out of events our model predicted would come true with at least 0.8 probability, 87% of the time these events actually did come true"

This is very deceptive presenting this as validation - another way to translate what I just said was "out of events that were overwhelmingly obvious they would come true, 87% of the time they actually came true"

He's only validating a high threshold of precision which actually excludes a huge set of events in that field

What it doesn't tell you is "out of all events that actually came true, what % of these events did our model *predict* would come true"?

The reason he doesn't give this is why Taleb / anyone w/ statistical training and balls enough to speak out publicly against him (small set of ppl in the world) have criticized him relentlessly - b/c all he's doing is what i said originally , he's not actually willing to make *predictions* by giving a decision boundary on the model in the form of a threshold for the probability , implicitly 0.5 but by no means does it have to be 0.5, by which to say above this threshold the event is predicted yes/true, below is predicted no/false - doing this would allow actual validation as to the quality of his models, and it's not surprising the article we saw the other day showing using his model loses 6% over going w/ long-odds in soccer matches using his soccer predictions - ie one of the areas he CAN be validated in is his soccer model b/c it outputs expected goals, and it gives you a return of -6% against long-odds from that site that wrote the article

What he's doing when he puts out "validation" is he's cranking up the threshold to 0.9, restricting the validation set to only events that are easy to predict instead of all events, and saying "every time our model predicted the Dodgers would beat the Pirates, the dodgers won 94% of those games"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199869)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:37 PM
Author: Aromatic Wine French Chef

thank you 🙏

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199938)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

Real q: what is the point of him hiding that ball this way? Everyone just takes his 12/100 88/100as a statement of probability - even if he could argue it’s not nobody cares.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200024)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:54 PM
Author: avocado hairraiser selfie locale

he's a charlatan

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200078)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:25 PM
Author: Orchid deep plaza

Don't get me wrong, it's not completely obvious how we *should* interpret a probability for a one time event like this - which is why decades ago in the ASA meetings statisticians were broken into quasi-religious bayesian vs classical (Fisher) stats, and would argue until near fist fights broke out - these were *philosophical* arguments about the way the world worked

So there's no one correct answer i can give you

But it's not so much that you shouldn't take his 12/100 as a probability , it's how you interpret what a probability means is the philosophical question

Classical statistics would say a probability is the limit of an infinite sum of bernoulli trials whether an event occurs or not, ie a probability represents sampling variation - the number of times an event would occur if we repeated the experimental conditions enough times

A bayesian would say that there's just the event, and a probability represents our *degree of belief* in the event occurring

These days, there's not a neat philosophical distinction between these two as different ideologies , rather they're just thought of as different tools for a job

Taleb's point is that probabilities for such an event like this should only be interpreted as odds, ie degrees of belief you're willing to actually bet against - which has the degree of psychology of betting b/c once you have "skin in the game" it lessens your motivated reasoning so that you're more likely to seek out the truth when you bear the costs of being wrong

I think the issue with Silver particularly isn't so much how we interpret his probabilities , it's that

a) that probability is only as good as the underlying mechanics giving rise to those simulations , which is more to Taleb's point

b) by refusing to place a decision boundary on his model, eg saying "above 0.6 means I predict yes, below 0.6 means i predict no" , we can't ever validate the quality of his model properly, and he only releases validation against highly likely events

His hiding the ball is perfectly natural for anyone in his position , you'll see the same thing done by others it's very common, just not from eg Gelman / Taleb for example

By not giving us a decision boundary, of course we'll naturally assume >0.5 means predict yes, but that is not necessarily the case at all in many domains - for example in credit card application fraud the tradeoff between false positives and false negatives will be much different, and so you'll tune your boundary threshold accordingly since being wrong in the direction of letting a fraudulent application get through is much more expensive than accidentally rejecting a legit application

But the heart of the issue IMO is Taleb's comments, what i listed in a) and b), and

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-engineering-the-problematic-tail-behavior-of-the-fivethirtyeight-presidential-election-forecast/

might end up being some really damning evidence of misdeeds if trump wins.....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200272)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:39 PM
Author: at-the-ready comical quadroon garrison

How was he supposed to predict putin would hack the election in 2016 or Trump would hack the post office in 2020?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41199950)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:26 PM
Author: Heady crusty travel guidebook

Cr. He's probably nervous about the election results too

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200275)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:27 PM
Author: khaki duck-like weed whacker principal's office



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200278)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:27 PM
Author: vivacious son of senegal



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200282)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:46 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200377)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 6:56 PM
Author: beta plum boltzmann



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41200437)



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Date: November 2nd, 2020 6:14 PM
Author: appetizing parlour



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41245450)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 10:05 PM
Author: spectacular base old irish cottage

I’ve been a Long time listener to his podcast. He’s been tripping over himself lately to clarify that his hallowed model doesn’t include the “effects of cheating”. We all know where that’s going to lead if trump wins

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41201798)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 10:05 PM
Author: brass menage

fuck Nate Silver. I almost hate him as much as I hate Trump, but Trump at least has a shot for doing something good for this country

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41201804)



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Date: November 2nd, 2020 6:12 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

hope nate doesnt do anything drastic tomorrow

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41245436)



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Date: November 2nd, 2020 6:18 PM
Author: Seedy blathering bawdyhouse

Nate Aluminum already hedged and said "Blormpf only has 10% chance of winning buuuuuut if he wins NC/GA/FL it's actually 50/50...oh and also if he wins PA he is the overwhelming favorite, teehee!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41245485)



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Date: November 2nd, 2020 6:19 PM
Author: Rough-skinned degenerate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41245498)



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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:31 PM
Author: Purple wonderful pervert university

LOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLL

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41260642)



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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:32 PM
Author: charismatic nighttime abode



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41260665)



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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:33 PM
Author: boyish offensive church building



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41260687)



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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:38 PM
Author: Rough-skinned degenerate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4663464&forum_id=2#41260833)