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Is presumption that GOP will outperform on election day justified?
| Brass hairraiser pistol doctorate | 10/28/20 |
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| Brass hairraiser pistol doctorate | 10/28/20 |
| Lake theater | 10/28/20 |
| big point main people | 10/28/20 |
| Brass hairraiser pistol doctorate | 10/28/20 |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:13 PM Author: Brass hairraiser pistol doctorate Seems common-sensical: libs more worried about virus, cons more careless about virus.
But is there anything more to that presumption?
Guy in Borders video says "everyone agrees with this" |
Date: October 28th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Abnormal orchestra pit cumskin I think its this way normally also So they expect to be more so this year. And in person v mail-in supports this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205251) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:16 PM Author: Brass hairraiser pistol doctorate silents and boomers are more GOP than any other age demo. they may be most inclined for convenience / safety of mail-in or going 4 days early to beat the line. My parents will go to the earliest possible Catholic mass and the earliest possible dinner reservation for the same reasons
Id also say those with strongest future orientation are more naturally inclined to be conservative
I dont know shit about it, but this seems to be a yuge presumption on which everyone is building everything else |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:16 PM Author: Lake theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205269) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:18 PM Author: big point main people Rs are more inclined to vote in person. But in person early voting has been gangbusters this year (look at FL) so ED turnout may be depressed a bit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205277) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:21 PM Author: Brass hairraiser pistol doctorate iow, its lol nobody knows
olds are very gop, and gop likes to vote in person, but olds also like to plan ahead and avoid crowds, but gop isnt as fearful of crowds....
it seems kooky, but the cw this week is adamant about GOP going wild on tuesday |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM Author: big point main people Certain states definitely won't be as crazy as 2016 on ED. Florida is running out of voters because over half of Rs have already voted. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205319) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM Author: odious chrome area Every single poll has shown R's and R leaning I's much more likely to vote on Election Day, by huge margins.
Dems also have no GOTV this year and were relying on VBM
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM Author: Spectacular indian lodge This year Dems have been spamming the fuck out of their voters to vote by mail/in-person early. GOP has to a lesser extent, but the right wing media+Trump messaging is that mail voting=fraud and the election happens on Election Day, so that prob drives a lot of Trump true believers to vote on the day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205318) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 2:43 PM Author: massive provocative tanning salon indirect expression It's an underdiscussed aspect of this that the fact that the Dems have turned out early ought to help them expand their electorate on election day. Having more vote banked means you can spend more resources targeting marginal voters and turning them out both in actual GOTV resources, but also targeted messaging. The idea that Dems have way more money to target way fewer voters because so many turned out already is a huge and badly underdiscussed factor in all these analyses, including especially borders' and all his favorite pollsters. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41206417) |