The last time around only 17% of Biden's votes were from people who cast votes on election day. Elections don't matter.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647769)

They really went on a speedrun to permanently end the American dream forever force us all to eat the bugs. And now they're all saying this was a good thing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647793)

Besides, after looking at the demographics after the immigration that has occurred, it's reasonable to as "what country?"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647850)

Where does someone like me go? Real question.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647915)

I grew up in Europe partially. I can only go by my personal opinions.

England sucks and is really trashy and most people are genuinely retarded. France is a fine place but it's really boring. I don't think I could ever adjust to a Catholic country. There is something about the culture that is really off putting to Americans if you live there. I can't explain it well but France is a bummer for anything other than vacation.

Germany is extremely insular and the people are off putting. Unless you're from there it's pretty depressing. I'm not the only one that dislikes the Germans. I had an Italian friend who grew up in Stuttgart and he never got on with the Krauts. They're super weird.

The French aren't weird they're just lazy Catholics and NO ONE has an ounce of motivation. Switzerland is rich and spooky and they have creepy rituals and everyone is a globalist. Same with Belgium. Everyone in Belgium is like dcpoast.

Spain is a festering ttt in decline. I've never been to Holland but it seems cr. They're language sounds atrocious but the Dutch seem pretty 177. Poland is nice but they never let anyone move there.

Best place in Europe is obviously Scandinavia. It's 180. The whole place is like Vermont. It's just rich white people hanging out working on their hobbies. Sweden is by far the best part. Norway #2. Denmark is fine but also sucks. Everyone from these places has a nerd job like mathematician. Also they all speak English and are protestants. It's 180.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647974)

For you I recommend taking a family trip. I think you would like it. Just go non committal on a fun trip. I recommend getting outside of Stockholm. Although there's a lot to do. They have great amusement for kids. There's some shit called Gröna Lund and they have a zoo with reindeer and an outdoor museum to Swedish history. I prefer western Sweden. Gothenburg is really nice. That's where PewDiePie is from. They also have a lot to do. Just go check it out. It's a lot better than the Wasteland we live in. Way better.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648021)

Also despite being one of the most socially progressive countries in terms of gender equality and all that Sweden also has the most conservative gender roles of any European nation, i.e. most women are giga trads and stick to women shit. Men are expected to make money and women are expected to make the home. Equality is a huge cultural thing over there but in practice women are very submissive. They're also really into riding horses. Horses are a big deal. And you can get a gun if you join a hunting club. It's not completely impossible to get one.

Downside of Sweden: the government owns all the liquor stores and booze is expensive. The joke in Sweden is that everyone pregames and then goes to the bar for 1 drink. Also restaurant service can be slow (no tipping) and there's no air conditioning during the two weeks a year when it's hot in the summer you will be miserable. But this is everywhere in Europe.

Also all the major cities are flooded with third world mud people. You have to go to the countryside to see the tall beautiful Nordic blonde people. Stockholm is particularly egregious with the mudfolk. Everything wrong with Sweden is embodied by the far left cultural elites in Stockholm and you will routinely see a tall blonde Nordic Chad walking around with a jet black Congo negress and a bunch of mixed kids. The coastal elites absolutely love the thought of destroying their genetic lineage. However, right now the rural areas are die hard MAGA types (their party is called Sweden Democrats) and the suburbs are like Dallas suburb neocon types. So right now they have a coalition where the neocons are in charge but they have to work with the far right. Everyone is sick of the Socialists who were in power for like a century.

A fun fact is there's no concept of conservatism in Sweden because Sweden was never right wing for centuries so they never talk about going back to some prior Sweden buy advancing right wing politics is like some political experiment no one has tried before. It's 180.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47650317)

They have so many outs it's unbelievable. I also believe that Trump leading in the polls and the final results being D+4 is part of the psyop.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647798)

places like Philly have had very suspect "voting" for years now and it's getting worse elsewhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647916)

and no, Obeezy, people keeping the money they earn is not "deficit spending" or any kind of spending. that money does not belong to the government.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647900)

either way, i feel like it'll be close af like it has been the last couple times.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647754)

The problem of course is that even if they do fuck up badly, they have a compliant media. It is also very concerning that there is a mass drive at the federal level to use tax dollars to coordinate with "nonpartisan" shitlib nonprofits to register voters with groups like medicare recipients, felons, subsidized housing recipients, etc being targeted. That could very well be what does a Trump in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47649859)

i specifically didn't put january 2025 because there might be some fuss that delays the inauguration.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47647789)

Most likely at this point is polls will shift massively in secomd half of 2024 as the israel shot dies down and shitlib protest energy is channelled into something else (tbd).

Biden will win az, pa, mich etc by .25%.

Cons will riot a la j6 which will be used to brutally suppress the populist movement going forward.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648175)

Trumps kowtowing to israel was purposeful. He was shocked when bibi didnt come out supporting him. This is because trump is kind of an idiot. But hes smart enough to know you wont be elected for anything in this country without jewish lobby support.

Necessary but not sufficient condition. Theres an element within the israel lobby that likes trump cuz of his ass kissing and the embassy shit. Its a minority position.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648668)

One other major factor that is still significantly underdiscussed: the social media algorithm change means that roughly a billion fewer pro-Trump messages will make their way to the voters he needs to turn out v the 2020 media environment. This is a massive impediment that any kind of analytics-based view of turn out would highlight. The ability of Trump to tie himself to a motivation for the voter requires omnipresence and repetition/amplification by allies. 90+% of what will be amplified over the next six months will be about his trials and his bitching about the last election. The primary reason he’s not already way behind is that he has strong brand equity on the economy and immigration, but he’s basically spotting the Biden campaign an 80/20 attention share on those issues over the next six months. In an election where turning out low intensity partisans will matter a lot this is a massive problem.

Second underdiscussed major factor: the high likelihood that one of the two candidates produces a gaffe that is extremely damaging, with Biden being an 80/20 favorite on this question. It’s hilarious to me that Biden can give one coked up SOTU speech and the Dems are like “see he’s fine nothing to see here moving on.” If Biden were to glitch out half as bad as McConnell does it would be devastating. And Biden has been a bizarrely low profile POtUS, so the impact of any negative images during the campaign will be magnified, and the public is also broadly bought in to the idea that he’s too old and cognitively impaired, so any gaffe is just walking through a wide open door. Trump has less of a hard-coded stigma wrt his age and cognitive function, but a sufficiently big slip up, eg at the debates, would be very damaging because it will work as a permission structure for his soft partisans to stay home and for Biden’s soft partisans and the persuadables to quiet their own concerns about Biden’s age. It seems like 40% of the likely outcomes of this election are determined by one or the other of the candidates having a major gaffe. And if Biden makes it to Election Day without a major gaffe that is memorable/becomes a shorthand for the entire race (like a POTUS level version of Quayle and potatoe), then he would be a solid favorite and if Trump is convicted or on trial with an empaneled jury in either the January 6th case or the documents case by the fall then Trump becomes a very likely loser.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648416)

I also know it bothers you when you’re made to confront this fact, but Trump is a terrible and extremely weak candidate. There were other terrible and weak candidates in the GOP primary that he easily beat, and most of them would crush Biden but Trump is very likely to lose. It’s pathetic, but the sooner you face these facts the sooner you will be able to move on with your life.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648502)

A generic neocon would not appeal to the Republican base. How dumb are you? Absolutely no one on the right wants a neocon President. We want RINOs to fail as much as Dems. You're so dense.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648517)

MAGA would do a write in campaign. We are like 75% of the party dumbass.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648622)

If and when Trump does in fact unseat the Dems and return to the White House, it will be a tremendous day of reckoning. They will all lose their collective minds (or what's left of them).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47648658)

This is EPAH BTW

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47649303)

His lead exists with or without random third party candidates included

Biden is historically unpopular and most people believe he has done a dogshit job

Trump isn't everpresent which means fence-sitters aren't constantly reminded of how much his personality annoys them

Dem-Harvest machine will still drive votes but unlikely it will be as effective as it was in 2020

I expected Trump to lose in both 2016 and (especially, definitely, 100%) in 2020 and he overperformed in both. Biden has been a historically shitty president and was hit with a random chaos-inducing war tailor made to pit his brown horde base against his kike donor backers.

Trump could win a squeaker but an inverse of 2012 seems more likely, with one side coping and UNSKEWing polls and then getting trounced on election day

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47649590)

staking my entire neck & reputation on this one

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526792&forum_id=2.#47650273)