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Biggest winner tonight? Kalshi.
Poast new message in this thread
https://www.sniffies.com
sniffies Date: November 4th, 2026 12:22 AM Author: Nippon Professional Baseball (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229479) |
Date: November 4th, 2026 12:23 AM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Um, ackshually DEMOCRACY is the biggest winner because America just voted out FASCISM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229487) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:24 AM Author: AZNgirl goin Genghis Khan on Jew Girls in MI the brazilian girl cofounder of kalshi is so hawt, how has she not gone viral (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229492) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:24 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Quit baiting tbtp. She's already explained to us many times that Kalshi is not predictive of actual results. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229494) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:26 AM Author: ferengi what does "not predictive" even mean? curious what you're even trying to say (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229502) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:27 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband do you read English for comprehension? These are very simple words. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229508) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:28 AM Author: ferengi lol. i'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you do understand my position and "not predictive" is just something you made up to be funny (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229509) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:32 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Lemme play this out with you. Do you believe that Vegas odds on sport outcomes are "predictive" of who wins?
It might be that you just don't know what English words mean (which is probably your best defense at this point) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:38 AM Author: ferengi what? not answering that 100% irrelevant q because you're the one who brought up the word "predictive". i never said anything was or wasn't "predictive", whatever that means. i said that betting market odds do not measure the probability of an outcome. you claimed that Polymarket odds of 65% mean the candidate is 65% likely to win the race. that's just not the case. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229533) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:40 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband "betting market odds do not measure the probability of an outcome"
Yes they do. I'm going to leave you with a rhetorical question: "Are you fucking stupid?" |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:45 AM Author: ferengi nope. you've always been more of a wordmo and less great at quantitative reasoning, so this might be beyond you. maybe ask a chatbot to explain one of these threads to you? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229559) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:45 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) yeah they measure the probability that individuals think something will happen. it's based on human collective ingenuity, just like how AI "predicts" what time you need to call your pharmacy to pick up your Adderall prescription based on all of human data. Polymarket IS what people think, in aggregate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229561) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:01 AM Author: ferengi yes, YOU understand what it is. EPAH still thinks, or is pretending to think, that they're magical probability machines that indicate the exact chance that a candidate will win (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229597) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:05 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Okay you're right -- I shouldn't have said in that other thread that Polymarket and Kalshi "indicate the exact chance that a candidate will win."
Wait a sec, can you remind me what thread that was?
gg loser. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:14 AM Author: ferengi Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:40 PM Author: ferengi
nope don't care that much. but do you really want to commit to them being reliable measures of probability? because if your final answer is that it IS just sensationalism - more dramatic pwning of shitcons to link a fast-moving, volatile graph - and you don't actually think the prediction markets are magical probability machines, then i respect that. we love drama here.
( http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228173 )
Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:40 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband
Yes, that's my final answer.
( http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?t hread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228175 )
Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:46 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband
The first one, I didn't read all the way to the end
( http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228212 )
that was after i gave the example of retards thinking that 65% D vs. 35% R on a prediction market is an accurate indicator of the probability of the D candidate winning, and you quoted it and said yes it is. technically you only said that it's "HIGHLY predictive", which is why i asked you to clarify whether you actually thought it was a statistical indicator of the candidate's probability of winning, and you said yes. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:31 AM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Seems like EPAH is saying they are very accurate at predicting outcomes relative to other methods while you're teting to pigeonhole "predictive" as an absolute prediction and hit him with dat example of a 51%+ prediction being wrong for dat QED pwnage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229516) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:32 AM Author: ferengi but i never said they weren't accurate at predicting outcomes... i said they're not measures of probability of the outcome (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229517) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:34 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband LOL, you'll make a great xo poster. What exactly did you say? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229521) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:34 AM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Mb I'm confused about how this all started and with EPAH gloating over multiple threads.
What is the point of contention here?
Edit: Wait, what? Explain the distinction between "accuracy at predicting outcome" and "measures of probability of the outcome" |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:37 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband She got contrarian when I was posting OH, TX, ME, KS, IA Polymarkets showing 95% likelihood for Ds, explaining that "that's just people betting; those aren't good at predicting who will ACTUALLY win!" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229528) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:42 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) as someone who took the opposite side of those bets I can honestly say the wisdom of the gamblers was right and I, the salmon swimming upstream, was wrong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229548) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:43 AM Author: ferengi are you talking about prior to today? i see why you're confused. i have two different criticisms that you might be conflating.
on election day, my criticism is that linking to Polymarket is not as useful as linking results and projections, since it's downstream of those things. it's just a dramatic, volatile reaction to those. it's defensible to find it INTERESTING but i don't think it's as useful as those other sources for following the race.
before election day, my criticism is that it's tainted by the fact that sufficiently rich people can pour money into a candidate to astroturf them. they can FAKE public opinion.
the first point only applies on election day and the second only before. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:49 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband I've already explained all of this to you, but I'll try again: The people who are interested in making money on this are FAR more knowledgeable about particular races than you or I are. They follow precinct histories last cycle vs this year, current reporting totals from each precinct, etc.
So you look at the SC race for example and think: "Lindsey's sister is up by 10K votes with 8% of the total, so it's impossible to predict who will win." But they are looking at individual precinct reports, and have roughly 100x the ability to predict the outcome compared to you looking at statewide totals.
Does that make sense? |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:54 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) It's the same thing CNN, FNC, and MSNBC do during the live telecast when they cut to the "decision room." We all remember famously Karl Rove in 2012 on Fox News sperging out about how Romney still had a shot because of the outstanding vote in Cuyahoga county. It used to be there were only a few of these ultra autistic nerds who could tell you exactly whether there were enough voters in Eastern Oregon to swing a race. Now we have the wisdom of crowds to do it for us. We don't have to wait until midnight anymore to call races where there's reasonable suspicion that there's nothing material left to count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229571) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:57 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband "that's just people betting"
(tbtp) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:59 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) I'm betting heavily on her responding to my text messages later... haha! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229590) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:58 AM Author: ferengi it's possible this has been the case so far; i've never followed them so idk how good their track record is. but nothing about betting markets and their growing hold on the masses guarantees it would be the case reliably going forward. again, it's reasonable to assume that plenty of randos are just buying and selling based on the counts and based on what everyone else is doing, which again leads to a ton of volatility.
it's possible there are enough WHALES with SCHOLARLY STATISTICAL MODELS making bang-on predictions that well-informed predictions account for most of the movement. reasonable minds can disagree about how much faith to have in the markets. but again, you committed to the batshit insane claim that i could sense underlies your understanding of prediction markets. you seriously think that X% chance on a betting market = X% chance the candidate will win, which is mind-bogglingly stupid but not uncommon in the mathematically illiterate hellscape that is 2026. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:02 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband "i've never followed them so idk how good their track record is"
You coulda stopped there sis. Or you could have summarized "I don't know anything about this topic, but HERE'S WHAT I THINK!" |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:04 AM Author: ferengi feed a chatbot these threads and maybe it'll get through to you in a way that i cannot. godspeed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229604) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:10 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) the real batshit insane claim he made is that his 2 year old boy thought he was a girl. everything is downstream of that.
I think you're getting hung up on the idea that there are no intrinsic odds in the universe, right. like of course there is a 100% chance that the vote total will match the votes counted in the end, and that a 66/34 Kalshi spread at any point is mathematically less than 100. But that odds are just our 'best approximation.'
It's kind of like Calculus. We can't *really* calculate the curvature of a planetary orbit right? But someone (Newton) figured out you could draw a line and fill it in with ever tinier triangles and you could approximate it REALLY closely, to the point of like, actually being able to calculate it accurately. Calculus shouldn't exist, right? It's one of those "batshit insane" ideas that would never occur to most people. And yet, it works. It's counter-intuitive. And yet our entire civilization depends on it. If Tucker thinks algebra is Jewish magic (at worst wouldn't it be Islamic magic?), then Calculus is some really out there shit. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:52 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) I think you seem biased against it because of your natural skepticism that markets, as well as people, can be manipulated. It taps into your inherent fear that there are puppet masters pulling strings, that there's some shadowy force lurking behind what people can see in every day life. You seem prone to this type of thinking - that there's something underneath the surface all the time, and your refusal to believe that life is actually just a big collection of individual people making up their own minds about shit, and often crashing and burning, sometimes learning from their mistakes, but ultimate that power rests in the hands of individuals and not some shadowy elite or system. Interestingly, prediction markets cut against all of that. No matter what the message is from pundits or campaigns or government officials, these markets are scattered and are actually resilient to manipulation overall. Motivated individuals can look at all the noise and say, you know what, I actually don't believe this narrative they're pushing on me. And hence, the markets are antifragile. They are robust and difficult to manipulate, unlike the news which can be bought by a group or an entity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229569) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:59 AM Author: ferengi stay drip fed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229589) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:00 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) you have called me a lot of insane things but a glownigger is not one of them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229592) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:43 AM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Sorry slugger but it turns out you were lisping about tiny pink accuracy at predicting outcome while galaxy brain was talking about measures of probability of the outcome. The minds are not matched. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229556) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:50 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband You're using words that you don't understand friend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229568) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:03 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) box just think of whom you're up against ITT who are all miraculously in agreement here:
me - a right wing nutjob with "horrible" views per your own assessment
gunner - a thoughtful moderate with Reddit tier opinions on everything
EPAH - a left wing extremist who fully trooned half his kids
You're literally going up against the full political spectrum who all agree on the wisdom of betting markets. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:08 AM Author: ferengi or you could say it's me vs. 3 retards (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229613) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:09 AM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229615) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 1:14 AM Author: Scholarly Whale (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) I'm just smart enough to know when I'm the retarded one in the room. Just barely. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918362&forum_id=2.#50229626) |