The Election of Pope Leo XIV:

A fractured Bergoglian-wing, organized resistance by conservatives and a united front of U.S. cardinals allowed Robert Prevost to ascend to the papacy.

This thread, based on conversations with Church insiders, details how the conclave transpired.

I. Introduction:

Steps from Saint Peter’s Square, secretive talks were being held by cardinals ahead of the following week’s conclave. The rotating electors shuffled in-and-out of the apartment of the 76-year-old Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke, who was one of 133 men that would soon be voting for the next leader of the Catholic Church.

Two years earlier, the then-Pope Francis threatened to withdraw the Vatican-subsidization of Burke’s apartment, a move that many traditionalists described as retaliation for the conservative cardinal’s outspoken criticism of the Argentine pontiff. But the week before the conclave, the residence was the headquarters of an organized operation aimed at blocking Francis’ wing of the Church from reclaiming the papacy.

Burke himself was viewed in many conservative circles as a papabile (an unofficial Italian term used by Vatican insiders to describe a potential candidate to be elected pope). Other traditionalist candidates were being floated such as Péter Erdő of Hungary, the desired pick among the conservative wing of the Church.

Those meeting in Burke’s apartment, however, knew the cards were stacked against them. Francis had elevated eighty-percent of the voting age cardinals to their posts, suggesting they’d follow Jorge Bergoglio’s more progressive vision of the Church.

Months before Francis’ passing, it was evident that it would be nearly impossible for a traditionalist to win the next conclave (requiring a two-thirds majority, which would amount to 89 votes among the 133 electors, the largest conclave in Church history).

Conservatives were talking amongst themselves as early as December 2024—when Francis elevated 21 bishops to the College of Cardinals, including 20 cardinal-electors—about how they would approach a future conclave. The conversations intensified when Francis was hospitalized with pneumonia two months later.

The updates from Francis’ medical staff at Gemelli Hospital in Rome varied. On some days, the 88-year-old would show improvements. On others, he’d suffer setbacks (it was only after his discharge from the hospital on March 23rd when doctors revealed they considered ending treatment at one point due to his critical condition following a respiratory crisis that resulted in Francis inhaling his vomit and his oxygen saturation dipping dangerously low).

The finals days of his hospitalization gave the impression that the pontiff was on the mend. However, word had already spread across the College of Cardinals. The pope did not have much time.

II. The Electors:

Pope Francis would pass away on April 21st, less than one month after being released from the hospital. His final public appearance was delivering his Urbi et Orbi blessing on Easter Sunday from the loggia of Saint Peter’s Basilica—the place where his successor would be announced eighteen days later—and greeting worshippers in Saint Peter’s Square from the popemobile.

The morning after his death, the first General Congregation of the College of Cardinals took place. Around sixty cardinals already in Rome gathered in the Synod Hall to finalize the plans for Francis’ funeral. The coming days would be the first time many of these men met each other. Hailing from 71 different countries (compared to the 48 represented in the 2013 conclave), the soon-to-be electors were diverse, both ideologically and geographically.

As the conversations progressed inside the daily meetings, and in more intimate settings outside the walls of Vatican City, three unforeseen truths began to emerge among those in attendance.

The first truth was that the divides in the Church were not as simple as left versus right ideological dynamics. Topics raised over the twelve meetings included the Vatican’s financial troubles, dwindling membership around the globe, divisions within the Church and synodality (the process of democratizing the Church’s mission by including the input of priests, bishops and lay people). Cardinals in attendance disagreed on how to prioritize and approach these issues, and the differences were just as diverse among geographical lines as they were ideological.

The second truth was the realization among the Bergoglian-wing of the Church that there was no consensus on who should succeed Pope Francis. The liberal-leaning coalition knew the numbers worked to its advantage and saw an opportunity to install a pope that aligned with its vision of the Church. But who?

Cardinal Pietro Parolin was seen as the front-runner, but some cardinals saw viable replacements. Malta’s Mario Grech was floated as a more progressive option; Jean-Marc Aveline of France was proposed as a candidate that would continue Francis’ legacy but didn’t come with the same baggage as Parolin; Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines was seen as an exciting pick that could bring enthusiasm to younger Catholics and extend the Church’s reach into Asia.

The third truth, and most troubling for the Bergoglian-camp, was the gradual understanding that many of the cardinals elevated by Francis were not as loyal to his mission as initially believed. Fifteen of the eighteen cardinal-electors from Africa were elevated by Francis, but many were alarmed by his approval of Fiducia supplicans (allowing blessings to be extended to individuals in same-sex couples). It was part of their larger disapproval of the direction of the Church—and Western civilization more broadly—that was often voiced by European members.

Twenty of the twenty-three cardinal-electors from Asia were also elevated by Francis, but his decision to reach a secret agreement with the China—giving the communist party more influence over the Church by giving it a say in the selection process for bishops—was viewed as an unforgivable act that came to the detriment of Christians who often face persecution.

Francis broadening the representation in the Church through the College of Cardinals brought with it diverse worldviews. The 108 cardinal-electors elevated by Francis were fractured, and it created an opportunity for traditionalists to capitalize on the divisions. The splintering in the Bergoglian-wing of the Church did not go unnoticed by the cardinals coming in-and-out of Cardinal Burke’s apartment in the lead up to the conclave.

The two-part plan being concocted was simple: (1) block the frontrunner; and (2) offer an alternative.

III: The Italians:

An Italian had lead the Catholic Church for 455 years before the election of Polish Cardinal Karol Józef Wojtyła—who would take the name Pope John Paul II—in 1978. Following the elections of Benedict XVI (Germany) and Francis (Argentina), many Italians believe it was the time for another Italian pope. As the Church continued to diversify and become more peripheral, cardinal-electors from Italy saw one final shot to reclaim the papacy.

Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin was seen as the strongest contender. As Francis’ secretary of state, he could be counted on to continue the Bergoglian vision of the Church; moreover, he had the bona fides as an experienced diplomat who could navigate its return to the global scene.

The Italians made up the largest voting bloc of the conclave (17) and had, for the most part, united behind Parolin after extensive of deliberations. In the days leading up to the first vote, Matteo Zuppi was seen as too liberal and unable to garner enough votes while Pierbattista Pizzaballa was viewed as too controversial given his role as the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Parolin’s allies began campaigning on his behalf, starting by focusing on the Bergoglians. The pitch was that the Italian from Venice was already the front-runner, and if other cardinals quickly threw their support behind him and produce a quick victor, it would signal to the rest of the world that Francis’ legacy would live on.

Allies of Parolin began floating the idea of an arrangement with supporters of Tagle, offering to throw their support behind whichever candidate proved to have a clearer path to the papacy as the voting progressed. They believed that Parolin was sure to be the benefactor of that arrangement, hoping the momentum provided by a surge of additional votes on the following ballot would make Parolin’s elevation seem all but inevitable.

Parolin’s camp knew he was a vulnerable candidate. His name was associated with two of Francis’ most contentious hallmarks of his papacy: (1) the controversial-turned-criminal London land deal that lost the Vatican $150 million; and (2) the secret agreement with the Chinese Communist Party. The latter arrangement would prove to be fatal for Parolin’s candidacy, and would prevent a Parolin-Tagle deal from ever coming to fruition.

There was a short-lived conversation among the Italians about switching their allegiances to Cardinal Fernando Filoni—who worked in Hong Kong and is described as a China expert—but, come the conclave, Parolin was the candidate of choice.

IV: The Americans:

New York Cardinal Timothy Dolan arrived in Rome on the morning of Wednesday, April 23rd, to attend the funeral of Pope Francis that upcoming weekend. His American colleague, Burke, was already working to block a progressive from ascending to the papacy. Dolan, meanwhile, was asking another question: “Why not an American pope?”

There had long been a taboo against a pontiff coming from the United States in fear that the position could be politicized by handing it over to a geopolitical superpower. But with the Vatican’s finances in a dire situation, and donations from the U.S. declining, a pope with a connection to the world’s biggest economy—and one of the largest Catholic populations—could provide the Church with a lifeline.

The Vatican’s budget deficit had tripled under Francis’ twelve year papacy. Its pension fund faced $2 billion in liabilities that it would not be able to fund. One of Pope Francis’ final acts was signing a directive creating a high-level commission tasked with asking the faithful to increase their donations to the Church. Three days later, he would fall fatally ill with pneumonia.

Conversations surrounding the prospect of an American successor to Francis began shortly after his hospitalization. A viable contender could not be viewed as being too American and would need to have connections to the rest of the world, the Roman Curia and the Bergoglian-wing of the Church. Two names came to mind: Cardinals Kevin Farrell and Robert Prevost.

Farrell, 77, born in Dublin, Ireland, was selected by Pope Francis in 2019 to be the camerlengo, the Vatican official who runs the Holy See after the death of a pope and before the election of another. His profile was rising in the aftermath of Francis’ passing. But his work as auxiliary bishop of Washington under the disgraced former Cardinal Theodore McCarrick—defrocked by Pope Francis in 2019 after a Vatican investigation determined he had molested adults and children—was seen as a line of attack that could be weaponized against him.

Prevost, 69, born in Chicago and a naturalized citizen of Peru, had his career fast-tracked by Francis who appointed him the prefect of the Vatican’s powerful Dicastery for Bishops—the organization tasked with vetting nominations for bishops around the world—and elevated him to cardinal in 2023. Prevost mirrored the pastoral characteristics of Francis, and had backers inside the Vatican who were confident he could rise to the occasion if elected pope. There was no doubt among the Americans that Prevost was their preferred candidate.

The first step was making sure that everyone was onboard. Given Prevost’s reputation as a moderate—and his ties to Francis—this proved to be relatively easy. This became clear as the American cardinals gathered at the Pontifical North American College in Rome ahead of the conclave. Progressives, such as Cardinal Robert McElroy, were attracted to Prevost’s close ties to Francis; traditionalists, such as Dolan, saw him as an acceptable centrist who would take a more measured approach to the Church’s most contentious issues.

The Americans’ ten votes on the first ballot would be enough to put Prevost’s name in the running. A larger alliance would send a signal to the rest of the electors that his candidacy was for real. Momentum on the second ballot, the Americans believed, could seal his fate.

Dolan, at a “Commonwealth” reception held for English-speaking cardinals, worked to broaden the coalition. He held intimate conversations with electors from Africa, Asia and Latin America and persuaded them to throw their support behind Prevost. The Americans had rallied their votes behind Francis in the 2013 conclave, and this time found success in convincing their Latin American colleagues that Prevost—with extensive missionary work in Peru—was an acceptable successor.

The cardinals from Africa, fearing that a more progressive candidate could ascend to the papacy, found solace in their conservative colleagues (Burke, Dolan, etc.) advocating for Prevost. The cardinals from Asia, frustrated with Francis’ approach to China, saw the American as a reasonable alternative.

V: The Conclave:

The first ballot on Wednesday, which produced the first black smoke, established that it was a two-way race. It’s believed that Parolin had the most votes (40-50) with Prevost in second and Erdő a more distant third. Other liberal candidates—Aveline, Grech, Tagle, and more—received minuscule symbolic support, as did several conservatives such as Cardinals Erdo, Ranjith and Sarah.

As the electors headed back to Casa Santa Marta for the night, hungry and exhausted after the evening went later than expected, there was an understanding that the next morning’s vote would determine the future of the Catholic Church.

Allies of Parolin were scrambling to unite the Bergoglian-wing of the Church. They believed that if there was a significant increase building on his current lead, the rest of the electors would fall in line. Time was against them. The cardinal-electors wanted to produce a quick winner to portray a united Church. If the conclave dragged on, cardinals would begin looking elsewhere for conciliatory candidates. Parolin’s allies knew he had to emerge as the winner by the end of the next day.

Instead, the second ballot produced little momentum. The Bergoglian-wing of the Church was splintered, and Parolin was not seeing the substantial gains he needed. As the votes consolidated, it was becoming increasingly clear that the conservative blockade was real, and a coalition from North America, Latin America, Africa and Asia was taking shape.

Come the third ballot, which took place immediately after the second, Parolin lost votes. Black smoke billowed from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel signaling to the world that another vote would take place in the afternoon. As cardinals headed to Casa Santa Marta for lunch, they knew that the next ballot would produce a victor. Parolin did not have the votes needed to become pope, and his camp threw their support behind Prevost to assure a swift election.

As the fourth ballot unfolded that afternoon, the reality of the situation set in for Prevost. He began breathing heavily. Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines turned to him and asked, “Do you want a candy?” He accepted. New Jersey Cardinal Joseph Tobin, who has known his American counterpart for over thirty years, dropped his vote in the urn at the front of the Sistine Chapel and then looked at Prevost. His head was in his hands as it became increasingly apparent he was moments away from becoming one of the most influential people in the world.

It’s believed Prevost received upwards of 100 votes on the fourth and final ballot.

The senior cardinal, Parolin, was tasked with approaching Prevost after acquiring the two-thirds majority needed to win the election. The two men, eye-to-eye, finalized the process.

"Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” Parolin asked.

“Yes,” responded Prevost, no longer appearing burdened by the responsibility that had just been placed on his shoulders. Cardinal Tobin says any any doubts were resolved, “It was as if he was made for it.”

“By what name do you wish to be called?” Parolin inquired.

“Leo,” Prevost said, as the world would learn shortly after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5724903&forum_id=2Elisa#48930075)