The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/10/15 |
| Lime big-titted hell | 12/12/15 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 01/02/17 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 01/06/16 |
| Floppy Hospital | 01/06/16 |
| Floppy Hospital | 06/05/16 |
| Fragrant Messiness Menage | 03/26/16 |
| Clear charismatic home | 01/02/17 |
| Smoky church building dopamine | 10/25/18 |
| talented theater stage | 12/10/15 |
| Pea-brained Spot | 12/10/15 |
| aromatic irate range indirect expression | 12/10/15 |
| provocative federal clown | 12/10/15 |
| vivacious mildly autistic scourge upon the earth main people | 12/15/15 |
| Light Motley Bbw | 12/10/15 |
| twisted church | 12/10/15 |
| Learning disabled low-t reading party | 12/10/15 |
| Crystalline affirmative action | 12/11/15 |
| Appetizing cobalt box office roast beef | 12/12/15 |
| Primrose school cafeteria | 12/16/15 |
| Chartreuse bossy karate area | 01/04/16 |
| Massive spectacular locus | 11/09/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/11/15 |
| razzle-dazzle persian mexican | 12/11/15 |
| Cheese-eating son of senegal mad-dog skullcap | 12/11/15 |
| Crystalline affirmative action | 12/11/15 |
| sinister supple brunch | 12/12/15 |
| Beady-eyed Electric Furnace | 01/25/16 |
| Arousing cream wagecucks | 11/10/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/12/15 |
| sticky ocher pit gaping | 12/12/15 |
| Fuchsia at-the-ready trailer park candlestick maker | 12/12/15 |
| translucent rigpig | 12/12/15 |
| pontificating fishy heaven | 12/15/15 |
| magical odious resort lettuce | 12/21/15 |
| henna arrogant ticket booth keepsake machete | 12/12/15 |
| misunderstood den | 12/12/15 |
| Umber digit ratio | 12/12/15 |
| Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line | 12/12/15 |
| Passionate Awkward Theater Ceo | 12/12/15 |
| flushed exhilarant native queen of the night | 12/12/15 |
| twisted church | 12/15/15 |
| twisted church | 12/16/15 |
| offensive chocolate casino foreskin | 12/15/15 |
| Histrionic Meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| Rose impertinent kitchen | 12/15/15 |
| rusted fighting dragon shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| laughsome cyan faggot firefighter locale | 12/15/15 |
| Submissive mint toilet seat | 12/15/15 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/15/15 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/15/15 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/15/15 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/15/15 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 12/15/15 |
| Gay House-broken Senate Puppy | 01/05/16 |
| Beady-eyed Electric Furnace | 01/25/16 |
| godawful vigorous library | 12/17/16 |
| Salmon cumskin | 05/18/16 |
| Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt | 08/12/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/09/16 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 11/09/16 |
| Ivory blood rage abode | 11/09/16 |
| Rough-skinned Fluffy Cuckoldry | 10/22/20 |
| Iridescent bateful laser beams whorehouse | 12/15/15 |
| concupiscible patrolman stock car | 12/16/15 |
| vibrant charcoal skinny woman tattoo | 12/16/15 |
| Sooty pisswyrm depressive | 12/16/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 12/16/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 12/17/15 |
| crawly wonderful piazza | 12/18/15 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 01/06/16 |
| Yapping genital piercing useless brakes | 12/18/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 12/21/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 12/21/15 |
| magical odious resort lettuce | 12/21/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 12/30/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 12/30/15 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 01/04/16 |
| Chartreuse bossy karate area | 01/04/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 01/05/16 |
| Beady-eyed Electric Furnace | 01/25/16 |
| crawly wonderful piazza | 01/05/16 |
| curious crimson ratface masturbator | 01/05/16 |
| hairraiser purple business firm background story | 01/05/16 |
| Disturbing striped hyena | 01/05/16 |
| Onyx gaming laptop | 01/05/16 |
| Disturbing striped hyena | 01/05/16 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 01/06/16 |
| Disturbing striped hyena | 01/06/16 |
| Onyx gaming laptop | 01/05/16 |
| Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt | 01/06/16 |
| magical odious resort lettuce | 01/07/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 01/08/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 01/08/16 |
| magical odious resort lettuce | 01/08/16 |
| crawly wonderful piazza | 01/09/16 |
| magical odious resort lettuce | 01/10/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 01/18/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 01/19/16 |
| crawly wonderful piazza | 01/21/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 01/25/16 |
| Irradiated cordovan point | 01/25/16 |
| Beady-eyed Electric Furnace | 01/25/16 |
| Irradiated cordovan point | 02/09/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 09/06/16 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 11/05/18 |
| Mind-boggling hilarious wrinkle | 01/29/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 02/01/16 |
| stubborn tanning salon jap | 02/01/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 02/01/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 02/07/16 |
| curious crimson ratface masturbator | 02/09/16 |
| Pearl bearded nursing home old irish cottage | 02/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 02/20/16 |
| Exciting splenetic address | 02/20/16 |
| Salmon cumskin | 02/24/16 |
| narrow-minded site chad | 02/24/16 |
| dark dashing forum travel guidebook | 02/27/16 |
| offensive chocolate casino foreskin | 03/09/16 |
| adventurous poppy generalized bond | 03/15/16 |
| aromatic irate range indirect expression | 03/15/16 |
| Histrionic Meetinghouse | 03/16/16 |
| Flesh indian lodge marketing idea | 02/24/16 |
| Bright stimulating trust fund | 02/24/16 |
| Histrionic Meetinghouse | 07/21/16 |
| electric twinkling chapel antidepressant drug | 02/24/16 |
| aromatic irate range indirect expression | 02/27/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/02/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/04/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/09/16 |
| curious crimson ratface masturbator | 03/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/15/16 |
| Salmon cumskin | 03/15/16 |
| bistre deer antler rigor | 03/15/16 |
| Slate stirring stag film | 03/15/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/16/16 |
| twisted church | 03/16/16 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 03/23/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/23/16 |
| Umber digit ratio | 03/26/16 |
| Indigo kink-friendly yarmulke idiot | 03/26/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/26/16 |
| Gay House-broken Senate Puppy | 03/28/16 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 03/28/16 |
| Pea-brained Spot | 03/28/16 |
| Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt | 08/12/16 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 11/05/18 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/28/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/29/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 03/29/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 03/29/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/29/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/29/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/01/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/04/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 04/15/16 |
| Boyish Sanctuary | 04/15/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/19/16 |
| outnumbered codepig stage | 04/20/16 |
| elite puce dog poop | 04/20/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/24/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/25/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/26/16 |
| Sick principal's office | 04/26/16 |
| Saffron university | 04/30/16 |
| Mustard Roommate Juggernaut | 05/01/16 |
| Mustard Roommate Juggernaut | 11/07/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/02/16 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 05/02/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/03/16 |
| Lemon Toaster | 05/03/16 |
| Thriller Theatre | 05/03/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/04/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 05/04/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/05/16 |
| Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line | 05/05/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 05/05/16 |
| Bright stimulating trust fund | 05/05/16 |
| sticky ocher pit gaping | 05/18/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/18/16 |
| Salmon cumskin | 05/18/16 |
| sticky ocher pit gaping | 05/18/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 05/29/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 06/20/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 06/29/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/14/16 |
| Cerebral Mediation Hominid | 07/15/16 |
| Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt | 07/15/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/17/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 07/17/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/21/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/22/16 |
| Pungent pozpig hairy legs | 07/22/16 |
| razzle property | 07/23/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/24/16 |
| ruddy cruise ship telephone | 07/25/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 07/25/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 07/27/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 08/05/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 08/09/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 08/12/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 08/12/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 08/12/16 |
| big maize market psychic | 08/12/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 08/30/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 08/30/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 09/06/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 09/13/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 09/14/16 |
| henna arrogant ticket booth keepsake machete | 09/14/16 |
| fantasy-prone garrison quadroon | 09/15/16 |
| thirsty peach incel | 09/15/16 |
| Floppy Hospital | 09/15/16 |
| Wine selfie space | 09/15/16 |
| Navy harsh sandwich | 09/15/16 |
| dun lay | 09/19/16 |
| dun lay | 09/19/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 09/27/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 09/24/16 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 09/27/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 09/27/16 |
| twisted church | 09/27/16 |
| Geriatric insanely creepy stage volcanic crater | 10/08/16 |
| useless weed whacker national | 07/29/24 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 09/28/16 |
| henna arrogant ticket booth keepsake machete | 09/28/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 09/28/16 |
| elite puce dog poop | 09/28/16 |
| Boyish Sanctuary | 09/28/16 |
| glittery chestnut party of the first part | 10/08/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 10/09/16 |
| bonkers field hunting ground | 10/09/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 10/09/16 |
| Medicated sex offender | 10/09/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 10/10/16 |
| ruddy cruise ship telephone | 10/30/16 |
| Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt | 11/01/16 |
| Wine selfie space | 11/01/16 |
| magenta temple brethren | 11/02/16 |
| rusted fighting dragon shitlib | 11/02/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 11/07/16 |
| honey-headed stead | 11/08/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 11/08/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/08/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 11/08/16 |
| Buff heady state | 11/08/16 |
| territorial lodge | 11/08/16 |
| stubborn tanning salon jap | 11/08/16 |
| dun lay | 11/08/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/08/16 |
| Bisexual spruce tank | 11/09/16 |
| fantasy-prone garrison quadroon | 11/09/16 |
| doobsian windowlicker step-uncle's house | 11/09/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/09/16 |
| Wine selfie space | 11/09/16 |
| Bisexual spruce tank | 11/09/16 |
| ruddy cruise ship telephone | 11/09/16 |
| Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| plum excitant rehab | 12/03/16 |
| Arousing cream wagecucks | 12/07/16 |
| godawful vigorous library | 12/17/16 |
| red place of business newt | 10/11/24 |
| sapphire circlehead location | 11/09/16 |
| domesticated legal warrant school | 11/09/16 |
| diverse mahogany trump supporter fanboi | 11/09/16 |
| Multi-colored dysfunction headpube | 11/09/16 |
| plum excitant rehab | 11/09/16 |
| Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt | 11/09/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/09/16 |
| sticky ocher pit gaping | 11/09/16 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 11/09/16 |
| blue hateful bawdyhouse fortuitous meteor | 11/09/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/09/16 |
| racy national security agency | 11/09/16 |
| Free-loading station voyeur | 11/09/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/09/16 |
| provocative federal clown | 11/09/16 |
| Yapping genital piercing useless brakes | 11/10/16 |
| Irradiated cordovan point | 11/10/16 |
| Floppy Hospital | 11/10/16 |
| Brilliant galvanic office partner | 11/10/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/10/16 |
| soul-stirring burgundy center | 11/10/16 |
| Exciting splenetic address | 11/10/16 |
| dun lay | 11/14/16 |
| Violet Gas Station | 11/14/16 |
| comical coral base | 12/04/16 |
| godawful vigorous library | 12/17/16 |
| red place of business newt | 10/11/24 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/25/16 |
| garnet fear-inspiring macaca international law enforcement agency | 12/03/16 |
| Medicated sex offender | 12/04/16 |
| Lavender Misanthropic Water Buffalo Set | 12/07/16 |
| Floppy Hospital | 12/07/16 |
| garnet fear-inspiring macaca international law enforcement agency | 12/07/16 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 01/02/17 |
| frum institution | 01/02/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 01/02/17 |
| frum institution | 01/02/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 03/03/20 |
| Floppy Hospital | 01/02/17 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 01/16/17 |
| frum institution | 01/20/17 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 01/20/17 |
| frum institution | 01/23/17 |
| glittery chestnut party of the first part | 01/23/17 |
| frum institution | 01/23/17 |
| Chrome Corner Factory Reset Button | 01/23/17 |
| glittery chestnut party of the first part | 01/23/17 |
| frum institution | 01/23/17 |
| frum institution | 01/25/17 |
| frum institution | 01/26/17 |
| frum institution | 02/06/17 |
| frum institution | 02/13/17 |
| frum institution | 02/27/17 |
| frum institution | 05/03/17 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/03/17 |
| frum institution | 09/21/17 |
| aromatic irate range indirect expression | 01/23/17 |
| Wine selfie space | 02/27/17 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 03/22/17 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 04/17/17 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/08/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 06/20/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 08/10/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 10/15/17 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 10/15/17 |
| Jade razzmatazz french chef | 10/15/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/06/17 |
| Self-absorbed cowardly plaza jewess | 11/06/17 |
| yellow love of her life stain | 11/08/17 |
| jet-lagged glassy becky | 11/08/17 |
| Swashbuckling parlor therapy | 11/13/17 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 12/18/17 |
| Scarlet soggy parlour | 12/18/17 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 12/18/17 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 01/30/18 |
| Floppy Hospital | 06/01/18 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/18/18 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 07/19/18 |
| Navy harsh sandwich | 09/20/18 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 09/25/18 |
| Pea-brained Spot | 10/06/18 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 10/06/18 |
| Floppy Hospital | 10/25/18 |
| thirsty peach incel | 10/25/18 |
| Beady-eyed Electric Furnace | 11/05/18 |
| Floppy Hospital | 11/05/18 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 11/05/18 |
| Floppy Hospital | 11/05/18 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 01/08/19 |
| trip public bath prole | 02/23/19 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 03/13/19 |
| Beady-eyed Electric Furnace | 06/24/19 |
| Contagious orchestra pit boistinker | 06/24/19 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 11/18/19 |
| Wine selfie space | 02/12/20 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 02/12/20 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 03/24/20 |
| Carmine Sound Barrier | 03/24/20 |
| Cerebral Mediation Hominid | 04/04/20 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 04/26/20 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 05/13/20 |
| Cerebral Mediation Hominid | 06/05/20 |
| dull titillating shrine gunner | 06/05/20 |
| Cerebral Mediation Hominid | 09/09/20 |
| Wine selfie space | 09/09/20 |
| talented theater stage | 09/09/20 |
| Zippy filthpig | 09/12/20 |
| 180 goal in life | 09/24/20 |
| Contagious orchestra pit boistinker | 10/09/20 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 10/10/20 |
| Violent embarrassed to the bone immigrant | 10/22/20 |
| plum excitant rehab | 10/22/20 |
| Rough-skinned Fluffy Cuckoldry | 10/22/20 |
| Rough-skinned Fluffy Cuckoldry | 10/22/20 |
| Underhanded hissy fit | 03/23/22 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 10/27/20 |
| internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal | 10/27/20 |
| Contagious orchestra pit boistinker | 10/30/20 |
| nubile lake crackhouse round eye | 11/03/20 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/22/22 |
| cracking slimy private investor | 03/23/22 |
| Hairless regret | 03/23/22 |
| Cocky sweet tailpipe double fault | 03/23/22 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 07/25/22 |
| talented theater stage | 07/25/22 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 10/23/22 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 11/16/22 |
| Bearded mad cow disease crotch | 04/25/23 |
| sticky ocher pit gaping | 04/25/23 |
| 180 goal in life | 04/29/23 |
| useless weed whacker national | 05/28/23 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 02/22/24 |
| 180 goal in life | 02/23/24 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/23/24 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 08/26/24 |
| 180 goal in life | 09/13/24 |
| talented theater stage | 09/13/24 |
| 180 goal in life | 10/18/24 |
| red place of business newt | 10/11/24 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 11/06/24 |
| Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line | 03/04/25 |
| Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line | 03/04/25 |
| Navy harsh sandwich | 03/04/25 |
| red place of business newt | 03/04/25 |
| maroon mental disorder half-breed | 03/04/25 |
| flirting painfully honest liquid oxygen | 03/05/25 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/07/25 |
| Copper Nudist | 03/07/25 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/08/25 |
| lilac kitty | 03/08/25 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 03/08/25 |
| aromatic irate range indirect expression | 02/18/26 |
| aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike | 05/15/26 |
| orchid beta | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Lime big-titted hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Floppy Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Floppy Hospital another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Fragrant Messiness Menage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Clear charismatic home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284612) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: twisted church Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Learning disabled low-t reading party Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Crystalline affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Appetizing cobalt box office roast beef Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Primrose school cafeteria Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Chartreuse bossy karate area Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: translucent rigpig March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
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March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: twisted church OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: twisted church And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Histrionic Meetinghouse fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Rose impertinent kitchen I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: rusted fighting dragon shitlib 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: laughsome cyan faggot firefighter locale February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Submissive mint toilet seat You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384262) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Ivory blood rage abode Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: crawly wonderful piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Yapping genital piercing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: magical odious resort lettuce 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Chartreuse bossy karate area flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Beady-eyed Electric Furnace Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: crawly wonderful piazza From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Disturbing striped hyena I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Disturbing striped hyena Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Onyx gaming laptop No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: magical odious resort lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: magical odious resort lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: crawly wonderful piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: magical odious resort lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: crawly wonderful piazza looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Mustard Roommate Juggernaut Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Bright stimulating trust fund Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: sticky ocher pit gaping This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Salmon cumskin In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: sticky ocher pit gaping cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Cerebral Mediation Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Pungent pozpig hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: razzle property Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: ruddy cruise ship telephone Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: big maize market psychic LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: henna arrogant ticket booth keepsake machete Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: fantasy-prone garrison quadroon September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: thirsty peach incel September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Floppy Hospital god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Wine selfie space XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Navy harsh sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: dun lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: dun lay The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: twisted church This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Geriatric insanely creepy stage volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: useless weed whacker national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: henna arrogant ticket booth keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: elite puce dog poop This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Boyish Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: glittery chestnut party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: bonkers field hunting ground Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Medicated sex offender half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: ruddy cruise ship telephone close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Wine selfie space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: magenta temple brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: rusted fighting dragon shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: honey-headed stead You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Buff heady state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: territorial lodge Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: stubborn tanning salon jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: dun lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Bisexual spruce tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: fantasy-prone garrison quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: doobsian windowlicker step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Wine selfie space GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Bisexual spruce tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: ruddy cruise ship telephone it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: plum excitant rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Arousing cream wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: godawful vigorous library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: red place of business newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: sapphire circlehead location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: domesticated legal warrant school Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: diverse mahogany trump supporter fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Multi-colored dysfunction headpube 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: plum excitant rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Lascivious White People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: sticky ocher pit gaping this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: blue hateful bawdyhouse fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: racy national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Free-loading station voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: provocative federal clown you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Yapping genital piercing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Irradiated cordovan point Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Floppy Hospital bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Brilliant galvanic office partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: soul-stirring burgundy center ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Exciting splenetic address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: dun lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Violet Gas Station They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: comical coral base Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: godawful vigorous library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: red place of business newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: garnet fear-inspiring macaca international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Medicated sex offender GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Lavender Misanthropic Water Buffalo Set https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Floppy Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: garnet fear-inspiring macaca international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: frum institution October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: frum institution ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Floppy Hospital truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: frum institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: glittery chestnut party of the first part TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: frum institution It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Chrome Corner Factory Reset Button I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: glittery chestnut party of the first part it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: frum institution The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: frum institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: aromatic irate range indirect expression this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Wine selfie space One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Jade razzmatazz french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Self-absorbed cowardly plaza jewess credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: yellow love of her life stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: jet-lagged glassy becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Swashbuckling parlor therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Scarlet soggy parlour Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Floppy Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Navy harsh sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Pea-brained Spot It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Floppy Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: thirsty peach incel Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Beady-eyed Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Floppy Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Floppy Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: trip public bath prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Beady-eyed Electric Furnace There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Contagious orchestra pit boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Wine selfie space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Carmine Sound Barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Cerebral Mediation Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Cerebral Mediation Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: dull titillating shrine gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Cerebral Mediation Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Wine selfie space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: talented theater stage Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Zippy filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: 180 goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Contagious orchestra pit boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Violent embarrassed to the bone immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: plum excitant rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Rough-skinned Fluffy Cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Rough-skinned Fluffy Cuckoldry https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Underhanded hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: internet-worthy marvelous hall sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Contagious orchestra pit boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: nubile lake crackhouse round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: cracking slimy private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Hairless regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Cocky sweet tailpipe double fault 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: talented theater stage A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Bearded mad cow disease crotch https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: sticky ocher pit gaping why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: 180 goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: useless weed whacker national FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: 180 goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: 180 goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: talented theater stage One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: 180 goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: red place of business newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Jet demanding dilemma personal credit line https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Navy harsh sandwich Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: red place of business newt The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: maroon mental disorder half-breed He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: flirting painfully honest liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Copper Nudist 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: lilac kitty Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: aromatic irate range indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: aphrodisiac gaped house preventive strike ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: orchid beta i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#50060136) |