Looks like Republicans keep the House in 2026, though presumably Dems will redistrict in a lot of places by 2028.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874655)

Under the proposed new map, approximately 47% of Virginians that voted for

representatives of one of the major political parties in the last congressional election would now

be represented by 9% of Virginia’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives — while the

approximately 51% of Virginians that voted for the other major political party would now be

represented by 91% of Virginia’s congressional delegation.8

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874690)

13 that we postpone

judicial review of the constitutional amendment until after the election process, it might be

tempting for the Commonwealth to think that the final vote implicitly stacks the deck in its

favor — perhaps enough so that the exercise of any judicial review could be viewed as an ultra

vires effort to overturn the will of the people. If this supposition were true — that Scott forbids

pre-election challenges and that “the will of the people” forbids post-election challenges — then

judicial review of allegedly unconstitutional procedures used to adopt a constitutional

amendment would not exist in the Commonwealth of Virginia.14

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874698)

person before Election Day in 2025 walking into a polling place. The voter says to the officer of

election, “I am here to vote in the election.” The officer of election responds, “we are not

conducting an election here.” “But that’s why I am here,” the voter replies. “Maybe so, but let

me explain,” the officer of election insists, “you can vote in the election, but we are not

conducting an election today. Elections are only conducted on Election Day.”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874705)

But this shit is seriously undermining the whole point/purpose of the House of representatives. No shit every rep just blindly votes for/against their potus; that's literally what their selection process selects for.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874713)

But lol at an almost certainly correct court decision in Virginia "driv[ing] up turnout among blacks" in NC or GA, let alone Maine or ohio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874724)

Long-term it could erode black support for Dems in the south (I'm not suggesting to like 60-40, but by a bit; this is largely politically irrelevant unless it starts to spread elsewhere in the country through cultural osmosis). In these states you have super-weak state parties where the Dem leaders are these black congressmen in VRA opportunity districts (and state legislators, many of whom will also be districted out now). A higher proportion of the (smaller number of total) Dem state-leg seats will now be white suburb districts, and over time that makes a difference for keeping blacks in line.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874826)

https://x.com/ZhouJaron/status/2052758529837011440

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874727)

Dems are headed for extinction, not exaggerating in the slightest

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874744)

Apparently two of the four seats are doable even under the current map.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874782)

Democrats gained a net of 41 seats in the 2018 U.S. House elections (per detailed tallies like Wikipedia), or 40 seats (per sources like Ballotpedia and NYT that adjust for pre-election composition).

This flipped control of the House from Republicans to Democrats, resulting in a 235–199 (or 235–200) Democratic majority in the 116th Congress.

- end quote -

Seems like voters are way more pissed at Trump now than they were back then. A Dem House still seems quite likely.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874786)

I would seriously argue that the ideal outcome for the GOP is holding the Senate (on that front, as much as possible: keeping at 53 or maybe even moving to 54 via ossoff), and losing the House by just a large enough margin to be reported / felt by the public as a wave/rebuke.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49874838)

However,

In late 2017 and early 2018, the Democratic Party's net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) was roughly even or slightly positive, often leading Republicans by double digits. As of mid-2026, many major polls show the party’s net favorability has plummeted to nearly 30 points underwater (e.g., 33% favorable vs. 63% unfavorable).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49875151)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2Elisa#49876247)