XO POLL: Newcomb's Paradox, take one box or two❓
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: June 26th, 2026 9:51 PM Author: Ape Arrogance
You are playing a game operated by the Predictor, a brain-scanning computer exceptionally skilled at predicting people's actions. It predicts correctly 99.99999% of the time.
You are presented with two boxes, one transparent (labeled A) and the other opaque (labeled B). You have two choices: take the contents of both boxes, or just the opaque Box B. Box A contains a visible $1,000. The contents of Box B, however, are determined as follows: At some point before the start of the game, the Predictor makes a prediction as to whether you will take just Box B, or both boxes. If the Predictor predicts that both boxes will be taken, then Box B will contain nothing. If the Predictor predicts that only Box B will be taken, then Box B will contain $1,000,000.
By the time the game begins, the prediction has already been made, and the contents of Box B have already been determined. That is, Box B contains either $0 or $1,000,000 before the game begins, and once the game begins even the Predictor is powerless to change the contents of the boxes.
Do you take both boxes, or just Box B?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2Elisa#49964924) |
Date: June 26th, 2026 10:08 PM Author: smart ape
I would 1 box because I believe in the power of retrocausality. You can tell me I'm wrong but as long as I take 1 box and the machine is always right I always get the million. There's no risk or downside unless the machine is wrong then well the machine failed to predict that I would only take one box.
If we learn somehow that the machine is wrong more often than presumed then I would two box. Because the wronger the machine the better it is to take two. But if it's infallible the retrocausality is real because you can effect the past by your present actions. If it's 100% impossible for the machine to be wrong then you always get a million for taking one box and two boxers always get 1000.
Two boxers can argue that retrocausality isn't real however it's implied by the hypo that it must be possible the closer the machine gets to 100% accuracy. And that's why the hypo itself is flawed because it's an impossible experiment in reality.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2Elisa#49964945) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 10:43 PM Author: Ape Arrogance
this is the typical argument for taking both (although POASTERS may have something better):
the money is already in the boxes by the time you're called on to make your choice. no matter what it predicted, you get more money by taking both. if it predicted both, you get $1,000 instead of $0. If it predicted one, you get $1,001,000 instead of $1,000,000.
one intuition pump: imagine your best friend is there, on the opposite side of the boxes, and he can see into them. no matter what, he's going to tell you take both.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2Elisa#49964968) |
Date: June 27th, 2026 2:21 AM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)
If you take both boxes you have to factor in the cost of a LIFETIME OF REGRET and FEELING LIKE A BITCHMADE FAGGOT because you were -- and were ALWAYS GOING TO BE -- a scaredy little two-box CUCK, and The Predictor rightly called you out as one.
If you BOX B ALPHA and it turns out there's no money, who gives a fuck-- you can look that ai-chatbot NIGGER in his faggot hallucinating cyber face and tell him that he's a STUPID FUCKING NIGGER and his .00001% error rate is probably as real as the NYT trump-victory-odds needle.
You can't put a fucking price on that shit. I'm Box B TO THE HILT and you could, I shit you not, put $50,000 in box A and I'm still punching that cunt right in the face. I'm getting so pumped up typing this right now that you could just put $1M in box A and I'm still Box B ride or die.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2Elisa#49965149) |
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