The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/10/15 |
| Disrespectful House | 12/12/15 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 01/02/17 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 01/06/16 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 06/05/16 |
| offensive toaster travel guidebook | 03/26/16 |
| beady-eyed duck-like stead | 01/02/17 |
| copper bearded potus | 10/25/18 |
| Honey-headed roast beef | 12/10/15 |
| flickering philosopher-king theater | 12/10/15 |
| Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency | 12/10/15 |
| Internet-worthy Home | 12/10/15 |
| House-broken stimulating space trust fund | 12/15/15 |
| Galvanic pit windowlicker | 12/10/15 |
| bright theater stage | 12/10/15 |
| maniacal indigo market | 12/10/15 |
| Spruce Dashing Main People | 12/11/15 |
| hideous death wish stock car | 12/12/15 |
| Amethyst appetizing nowag church | 12/16/15 |
| marvelous buff scourge upon the earth corner | 01/04/16 |
| talented swollen kitty cat office | 11/09/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/11/15 |
| hilarious dingle berry spot | 12/11/15 |
| vibrant cruise ship | 12/11/15 |
| Spruce Dashing Main People | 12/11/15 |
| cracking white half-breed | 12/12/15 |
| fragrant cowardly locus | 01/25/16 |
| boyish associate | 11/10/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/12/15 |
| twinkling curious jewess | 12/12/15 |
| red mentally impaired sandwich | 12/12/15 |
| slippery chartreuse candlestick maker | 12/12/15 |
| Soul-stirring brilliant crackhouse | 12/15/15 |
| fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band | 12/21/15 |
| hairraiser sapphire milk | 12/12/15 |
| Motley Azure Trump Supporter Legend | 12/12/15 |
| Emerald hateful pervert | 12/12/15 |
| exciting shitlib | 12/12/15 |
| Lascivious tan deer antler chad | 12/12/15 |
| Razzmatazz hospital therapy | 12/12/15 |
| bright theater stage | 12/15/15 |
| bright theater stage | 12/16/15 |
| onyx hissy fit area | 12/15/15 |
| Big Haunting Coffee Pot | 12/15/15 |
| sick aqua abode useless brakes | 12/15/15 |
| racy cruel-hearted school hominid | 12/15/15 |
| cyan abnormal lay gaping | 12/15/15 |
| Dark razzle-dazzle garrison | 12/15/15 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/15/15 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/15/15 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/15/15 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/15/15 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 12/15/15 |
| Cream Stag Film Psychic | 01/05/16 |
| fragrant cowardly locus | 01/25/16 |
| Provocative Location Striped Hyena | 12/17/16 |
| Yellow Concupiscible Resort Messiness | 05/18/16 |
| vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother | 08/12/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 11/09/16 |
| dull alcoholic rehab factory reset button | 11/09/16 |
| Comical impertinent crotch national | 10/22/20 |
| Laughsome awkward chapel knife | 12/15/15 |
| big-titted contagious gas station sex offender | 12/16/15 |
| fishy insecure clown | 12/16/15 |
| Multi-colored Citrine Rigpig Multi-billionaire | 12/16/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 12/16/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 12/17/15 |
| bonkers selfie parlor | 12/18/15 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| Rose casino | 12/18/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 12/21/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 12/21/15 |
| fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band | 12/21/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 12/30/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 12/30/15 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 01/04/16 |
| marvelous buff scourge upon the earth corner | 01/04/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 01/05/16 |
| fragrant cowardly locus | 01/25/16 |
| bonkers selfie parlor | 01/05/16 |
| Mewling saffron hairy legs people who are hurt | 01/05/16 |
| Sepia Bull Headed Point Place Of Business | 01/05/16 |
| very tactful site newt | 01/05/16 |
| Flesh Bawdyhouse Gaming Laptop | 01/05/16 |
| very tactful site newt | 01/05/16 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| very tactful site newt | 01/06/16 |
| Flesh Bawdyhouse Gaming Laptop | 01/05/16 |
| vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother | 01/06/16 |
| fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band | 01/07/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 01/08/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 01/08/16 |
| fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band | 01/08/16 |
| bonkers selfie parlor | 01/09/16 |
| fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band | 01/10/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 01/18/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 01/19/16 |
| bonkers selfie parlor | 01/21/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 01/25/16 |
| electric ticket booth | 01/25/16 |
| fragrant cowardly locus | 01/25/16 |
| electric ticket booth | 02/09/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 09/06/16 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| Blue thriller ape | 01/29/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 02/01/16 |
| puce university | 02/01/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 02/01/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 02/07/16 |
| Mewling saffron hairy legs people who are hurt | 02/09/16 |
| Trip crawly antidepressant drug | 02/09/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 02/20/16 |
| Pale glittery keepsake machete hall | 02/20/16 |
| Yellow Concupiscible Resort Messiness | 02/24/16 |
| Mischievous institution | 02/24/16 |
| lilac property | 02/27/16 |
| onyx hissy fit area | 03/09/16 |
| stirring clear set | 03/15/16 |
| Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency | 03/15/16 |
| Big Haunting Coffee Pot | 03/16/16 |
| aphrodisiac gunner | 02/24/16 |
| Chrome cuckoldry | 02/24/16 |
| Big Haunting Coffee Pot | 07/21/16 |
| cordovan locale goyim | 02/24/16 |
| Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency | 02/27/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/02/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/04/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/09/16 |
| Mewling saffron hairy legs people who are hurt | 03/09/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/15/16 |
| Yellow Concupiscible Resort Messiness | 03/15/16 |
| passionate nibblets state | 03/15/16 |
| Hot preventive strike | 03/15/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/16/16 |
| bright theater stage | 03/16/16 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 03/23/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/23/16 |
| Emerald hateful pervert | 03/26/16 |
| Erotic Station Mental Disorder | 03/26/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/26/16 |
| Cream Stag Film Psychic | 03/28/16 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 03/28/16 |
| flickering philosopher-king theater | 03/28/16 |
| vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother | 08/12/16 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/28/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/29/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 03/29/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 03/29/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/29/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/29/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/01/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/04/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 04/15/16 |
| Charismatic smoky boistinker | 04/15/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/19/16 |
| glassy free-loading toilet seat | 04/20/16 |
| Bateful church building | 04/20/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/24/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/25/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/26/16 |
| Green Generalized Bond | 04/26/16 |
| Know-it-all shrine mexican | 04/30/16 |
| Arousing Step-uncle's House | 05/01/16 |
| Arousing Step-uncle's House | 11/07/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/02/16 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 05/02/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/03/16 |
| 180 pungent menage | 05/03/16 |
| Shivering jet cumskin idea he suggested | 05/03/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/04/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 05/04/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/05/16 |
| exciting shitlib | 05/05/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 05/05/16 |
| Chrome cuckoldry | 05/05/16 |
| twinkling curious jewess | 05/18/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/18/16 |
| Yellow Concupiscible Resort Messiness | 05/18/16 |
| twinkling curious jewess | 05/18/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 05/29/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 06/20/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 06/29/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/14/16 |
| irradiated flushed heaven degenerate | 07/15/16 |
| vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother | 07/15/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/17/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 07/17/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/21/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/22/16 |
| excitant fantasy-prone azn native | 07/22/16 |
| bipolar milky business firm masturbator | 07/23/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/24/16 |
| indecent bronze black woman police squad | 07/25/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 07/25/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 07/27/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 08/05/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 08/09/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 08/12/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 08/12/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 08/12/16 |
| Jade Theatre Personal Credit Line | 08/12/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 08/30/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 08/30/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 09/06/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 09/13/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 09/14/16 |
| hairraiser sapphire milk | 09/14/16 |
| Abusive hell foreskin | 09/15/16 |
| mustard dilemma immigrant | 09/15/16 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 09/15/16 |
| Hyperactive Nursing Home | 09/15/16 |
| Tripping primrose sound barrier tanning salon | 09/15/16 |
| Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks | 09/19/16 |
| Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks | 09/19/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 09/27/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 09/24/16 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 09/27/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 09/27/16 |
| bright theater stage | 09/27/16 |
| violent alcoholic cuck wrinkle | 10/08/16 |
| flatulent sticky really tough guy | 07/29/24 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 09/28/16 |
| hairraiser sapphire milk | 09/28/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 09/28/16 |
| Bateful church building | 09/28/16 |
| Charismatic smoky boistinker | 09/28/16 |
| Rebellious underhanded alpha senate | 10/08/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 10/09/16 |
| pink telephone address | 10/09/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 10/09/16 |
| Vigorous brunch liquid oxygen | 10/09/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 10/10/16 |
| indecent bronze black woman police squad | 10/30/16 |
| vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother | 11/01/16 |
| Hyperactive Nursing Home | 11/01/16 |
| Cerebral Lettuce Boltzmann | 11/02/16 |
| racy cruel-hearted school hominid | 11/02/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 11/07/16 |
| Razzle field | 11/08/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 11/08/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/08/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 11/08/16 |
| insanely creepy swashbuckling center hunting ground | 11/08/16 |
| Vermilion Histrionic Round Eye | 11/08/16 |
| puce university | 11/08/16 |
| Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks | 11/08/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/08/16 |
| spectacular insane public bath headpube | 11/09/16 |
| Abusive hell foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| supple skinny woman goal in life | 11/09/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| Hyperactive Nursing Home | 11/09/16 |
| spectacular insane public bath headpube | 11/09/16 |
| indecent bronze black woman police squad | 11/09/16 |
| exciting shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| poppy diverse faggot firefighter community account | 12/03/16 |
| boyish associate | 12/07/16 |
| Provocative Location Striped Hyena | 12/17/16 |
| Aromatic dragon dysfunction | 10/11/24 |
| wine piazza | 11/09/16 |
| Heady Avocado Corn Cake Range | 11/09/16 |
| titillating harsh indian lodge dog poop | 11/09/16 |
| opaque floppy athletic conference | 11/09/16 |
| poppy diverse faggot firefighter community account | 11/09/16 |
| vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother | 11/09/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| twinkling curious jewess | 11/09/16 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 11/09/16 |
| Odious stage turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| amber boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| transparent water buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| Internet-worthy Home | 11/09/16 |
| Rose casino | 11/10/16 |
| electric ticket booth | 11/10/16 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 11/10/16 |
| Well-lubricated Plaza New Version | 11/10/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/10/16 |
| talking principal's office mad cow disease | 11/10/16 |
| Pale glittery keepsake machete hall | 11/10/16 |
| Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks | 11/14/16 |
| sienna den digit ratio | 11/14/16 |
| grizzly temple | 12/04/16 |
| Provocative Location Striped Hyena | 12/17/16 |
| Aromatic dragon dysfunction | 10/11/24 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/25/16 |
| brindle codepig | 12/03/16 |
| Vigorous brunch liquid oxygen | 12/04/16 |
| Ultramarine whorehouse faggotry | 12/07/16 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 12/07/16 |
| brindle codepig | 12/07/16 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 01/02/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/02/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 01/02/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/02/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 03/03/20 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 01/02/17 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 01/16/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/20/17 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 01/20/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/23/17 |
| Rebellious underhanded alpha senate | 01/23/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/23/17 |
| Mauve Orchestra Pit Old Irish Cottage | 01/23/17 |
| Rebellious underhanded alpha senate | 01/23/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/23/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/25/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 01/26/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 02/06/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 02/13/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 02/27/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 05/03/17 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/03/17 |
| Topaz trailer park | 09/21/17 |
| Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency | 01/23/17 |
| Hyperactive Nursing Home | 02/27/17 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 03/22/17 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 04/17/17 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/08/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 06/20/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 08/10/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 10/15/17 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 10/15/17 |
| library | 10/15/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/06/17 |
| Carmine Forum | 11/06/17 |
| parlour friendly grandma | 11/08/17 |
| infuriating national security agency haunted graveyard | 11/08/17 |
| base circlehead | 11/13/17 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 12/18/17 |
| Khaki lodge electric furnace | 12/18/17 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 12/18/17 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 01/30/18 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 06/01/18 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/18/18 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 07/19/18 |
| Tripping primrose sound barrier tanning salon | 09/20/18 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 09/25/18 |
| flickering philosopher-king theater | 10/06/18 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 10/06/18 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 10/25/18 |
| mustard dilemma immigrant | 10/25/18 |
| fragrant cowardly locus | 11/05/18 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 11/05/18 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| Wonderful doobsian kitchen | 11/05/18 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 01/08/19 |
| Light idiotic pozpig | 02/23/19 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 03/13/19 |
| fragrant cowardly locus | 06/24/19 |
| pearl overrated son of senegal brethren | 06/24/19 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 11/18/19 |
| Hyperactive Nursing Home | 02/12/20 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 02/12/20 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 03/24/20 |
| Peach jew | 03/24/20 |
| irradiated flushed heaven degenerate | 04/04/20 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 04/26/20 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 05/13/20 |
| irradiated flushed heaven degenerate | 06/05/20 |
| french massive affirmative action | 06/05/20 |
| irradiated flushed heaven degenerate | 09/09/20 |
| Hyperactive Nursing Home | 09/09/20 |
| Honey-headed roast beef | 09/09/20 |
| drab legal warrant | 09/12/20 |
| bespoke burgundy coldplay fan | 09/24/20 |
| pearl overrated son of senegal brethren | 10/09/20 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 10/10/20 |
| mildly autistic gold weed whacker | 10/22/20 |
| poppy diverse faggot firefighter community account | 10/22/20 |
| Comical impertinent crotch national | 10/22/20 |
| Comical impertinent crotch national | 10/22/20 |
| filthpig | 03/23/22 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 10/27/20 |
| olive private investor fortuitous meteor | 10/27/20 |
| pearl overrated son of senegal brethren | 10/30/20 |
| bistre adventurous blood rage | 11/03/20 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/22/22 |
| Slap-happy halford | 03/23/22 |
| Ebony Outnumbered Partner | 03/23/22 |
| french chef | 03/23/22 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 07/25/22 |
| Honey-headed roast beef | 07/25/22 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 10/23/22 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 11/16/22 |
| crystalline judgmental box office tattoo | 04/25/23 |
| twinkling curious jewess | 04/25/23 |
| bespoke burgundy coldplay fan | 04/29/23 |
| flatulent sticky really tough guy | 05/28/23 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 02/22/24 |
| bespoke burgundy coldplay fan | 02/23/24 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/23/24 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 08/26/24 |
| bespoke burgundy coldplay fan | 09/13/24 |
| Honey-headed roast beef | 09/13/24 |
| bespoke burgundy coldplay fan | 10/18/24 |
| Aromatic dragon dysfunction | 10/11/24 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 11/06/24 |
| exciting shitlib | 03/04/25 |
| exciting shitlib | 03/04/25 |
| Tripping primrose sound barrier tanning salon | 03/04/25 |
| Aromatic dragon dysfunction | 03/04/25 |
| beta giraffe | 03/04/25 |
| Slate pocket flask karate | 03/05/25 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/07/25 |
| rusted doctorate | 03/07/25 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/08/25 |
| maize embarrassed to the bone regret depressive | 03/08/25 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 03/08/25 |
| Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency | 02/18/26 |
| medicated sanctuary queen of the night | 05/15/26 |
| 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Disrespectful House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: olive private investor fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: offensive toaster travel guidebook 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: beady-eyed duck-like stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: copper bearded potus "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Honey-headed roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: flickering philosopher-king theater 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Internet-worthy Home Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: House-broken stimulating space trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Galvanic pit windowlicker FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: bright theater stage Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: maniacal indigo market Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Spruce Dashing Main People (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: hideous death wish stock car Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Amethyst appetizing nowag church Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: marvelous buff scourge upon the earth corner Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: talented swollen kitty cat office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: hilarious dingle berry spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: vibrant cruise ship 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Spruce Dashing Main People November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: cracking white half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: fragrant cowardly locus Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: boyish associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: twinkling curious jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: red mentally impaired sandwich lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: slippery chartreuse candlestick maker March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Soul-stirring brilliant crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: hairraiser sapphire milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Motley Azure Trump Supporter Legend lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Emerald hateful pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: exciting shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Lascivious tan deer antler chad Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Razzmatazz hospital therapy Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: bright theater stage OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: bright theater stage And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: onyx hissy fit area 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Big Haunting Coffee Pot fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: sick aqua abode useless brakes I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: racy cruel-hearted school hominid 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: cyan abnormal lay gaping February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Dark razzle-dazzle garrison You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Cream Stag Film Psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: fragrant cowardly locus Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Provocative Location Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Yellow Concupiscible Resort Messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: dull alcoholic rehab factory reset button Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Comical impertinent crotch national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Laughsome awkward chapel knife This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: big-titted contagious gas station sex offender 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: fishy insecure clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Multi-colored Citrine Rigpig Multi-billionaire Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: bonkers selfie parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: olive private investor fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Rose casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: marvelous buff scourge upon the earth corner flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: fragrant cowardly locus Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: bonkers selfie parlor From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Mewling saffron hairy legs people who are hurt 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Sepia Bull Headed Point Place Of Business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: very tactful site newt An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Flesh Bawdyhouse Gaming Laptop 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: very tactful site newt I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: olive private investor fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: very tactful site newt Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Flesh Bawdyhouse Gaming Laptop No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: bonkers selfie parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: fiercely-loyal ladyboy elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: bonkers selfie parlor looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Arousing Step-uncle's House Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Arousing Step-uncle's House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31825048) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: exciting shitlib Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30412976) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: twinkling curious jewess This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Yellow Concupiscible Resort Messiness In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: twinkling curious jewess cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: irradiated flushed heaven degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: vivacious yapping meetinghouse mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: excitant fantasy-prone azn native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: bipolar milky business firm masturbator Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: indecent bronze black woman police squad Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Jade Theatre Personal Credit Line LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: hairraiser sapphire milk Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Abusive hell foreskin September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: mustard dilemma immigrant September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Hyperactive Nursing Home XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Tripping primrose sound barrier tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bright theater stage This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: violent alcoholic cuck wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31592208) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: hairraiser sapphire milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Bateful church building This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Charismatic smoky boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Rebellious underhanded alpha senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: pink telephone address Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Vigorous brunch liquid oxygen half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: indecent bronze black woman police squad close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31763265) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Razzle field You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: talking principal's office mad cow disease true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Vermilion Histrionic Round Eye Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: twinkling curious jewess this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Exhilarant Stage Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: sienna den digit ratio They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: grizzly temple Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Provocative Location Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Aromatic dragon dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: brindle codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Vigorous brunch liquid oxygen GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Ultramarine whorehouse faggotry https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: brindle codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Topaz trailer park October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Topaz trailer park ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Topaz trailer park http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Rebellious underhanded alpha senate TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Topaz trailer park It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Mauve Orchestra Pit Old Irish Cottage I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Rebellious underhanded alpha senate it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Topaz trailer park The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Topaz trailer park https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Hyperactive Nursing Home One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: olive private investor fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Carmine Forum credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: parlour friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: infuriating national security agency haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: base circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Khaki lodge electric furnace Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Tripping primrose sound barrier tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: flickering philosopher-king theater It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: mustard dilemma immigrant Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: fragrant cowardly locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: olive private investor fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Wonderful doobsian kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Light idiotic pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: fragrant cowardly locus There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: pearl overrated son of senegal brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Hyperactive Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Peach jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: irradiated flushed heaven degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: irradiated flushed heaven degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: french massive affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: irradiated flushed heaven degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Hyperactive Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Honey-headed roast beef Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: drab legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: bespoke burgundy coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: pearl overrated son of senegal brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: mildly autistic gold weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: poppy diverse faggot firefighter community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Comical impertinent crotch national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Comical impertinent crotch national https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: olive private investor fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: pearl overrated son of senegal brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: bistre adventurous blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Slap-happy halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Ebony Outnumbered Partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: french chef 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Honey-headed roast beef A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: crystalline judgmental box office tattoo https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: twinkling curious jewess why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: bespoke burgundy coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: flatulent sticky really tough guy FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: bespoke burgundy coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: bespoke burgundy coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Honey-headed roast beef One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: bespoke burgundy coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Aromatic dragon dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: exciting shitlib 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: exciting shitlib https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Tripping primrose sound barrier tanning salon Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Aromatic dragon dysfunction The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: beta giraffe He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Slate pocket flask karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: rusted doctorate 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: maize embarrassed to the bone regret depressive Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Mind-boggling School Cafeteria International Law Enforcement Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: medicated sanctuary queen of the night ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#50060136) |