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What if depopulation is the BIG EVENT of the 21st C

I know there are 1 billion Nigerians, 6 billion Turds and 8 ...
Bistre vibrant internal respiration menage
  05/20/24
"break a lot of global systems and human cultures with ...
Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs
  05/20/24
ty. unfortunately hand-waving is mostly what i do. i can ...
Bistre vibrant internal respiration menage
  05/20/24
I mean, 'things will happen in the future that will prob...
Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs
  05/20/24
the real problem with it - and the reason the west is allowi...
Rusted tattoo
  05/20/24
Why is it hard to see how capitalism will work at all? Wh...
Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs
  05/20/24
because without growth there will be little to no investment...
Rusted tattoo
  05/20/24
what if economic growth decouples from population growth? ...
Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs
  05/20/24
productivity has decoupled from population just as you descr...
Rusted tattoo
  05/20/24
why does spending decline? do lower population rich count...
Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs
  05/20/24
...
Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs
  05/21/24
as the richest nation, we will draw in all the warm bodies a...
Bistre vibrant internal respiration menage
  05/20/24
...
Rusted tattoo
  05/20/24
...
Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School
  05/20/24
(insane jewish scum)
Razzle charcoal preventive strike
  05/20/24
oh look a feces person has opinions!
drab indirect expression new version
  05/20/24
...
Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School
  05/20/24
...
walnut aphrodisiac site weed whacker
  05/20/24
...
Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School
  05/20/24
where??
walnut aphrodisiac site weed whacker
  05/20/24
(insane jewish scum)
Razzle charcoal preventive strike
  05/20/24
...
Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School
  05/20/24
(insane jewish scum)
Razzle charcoal preventive strike
  05/20/24
...
Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School
  05/20/24


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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:33 AM
Author: Bistre vibrant internal respiration menage

I know there are 1 billion Nigerians, 6 billion Turds and 8 billion chinks... but what if this phenomenon really spreads and populations halve for three or four generations in a row?

Seems like this would break a lot of global systems and human cultures with exponential speed.

Seems more consequential than even a world war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676342)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:42 AM
Author: Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs

"break a lot of global systems and human cultures with exponential speed."

This thread will be more interesting if you spell out your thinking instead of just waving your hands around.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676365)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:54 AM
Author: Bistre vibrant internal respiration menage

ty. unfortunately hand-waving is mostly what i do.

i can say, tho, that if recent experiences with tinkering (what if we keep kids out of school, what if we dont use downtown office space, what if we print some dollars) all seem to generate massive consequences.

"what if we just don't have a normal shaped age graph and instead have a funnel" does not seem promising

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676417)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:00 AM
Author: Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs

I mean,

'things will happen in the future that will probably have consequences which will make it different than the present and the past.'

Is probably a pretty good bet.

But not all that much of an actionable insight.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676431)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:42 AM
Author: Rusted tattoo

the real problem with it - and the reason the west is allowing rampant third world immigration - is that our economic system is premised on growth. there are no economic models for a declining population. it's never happened. hard to see how capitalism would work at all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676361)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:43 AM
Author: Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs

Why is it hard to see how capitalism will work at all?

Why would some different system work any better?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676371)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:47 AM
Author: Rusted tattoo

because without growth there will be little to no investment. manufacturing will decline, skills will be lost, and everything will slowly degrade into shit. the state will have to subsidize everything, which will come with plenty of strings attached, at which point you're basically socialist.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676384)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:49 AM
Author: Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs

what if economic growth decouples from population growth?

added - I mean, that's largely happening regardless of what the population does, the most valuable companies today have a fraction of the workforce that the most valuable companies did 50 years ago.

The richest countries aren't the most populous.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676389)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:52 AM
Author: Rusted tattoo

productivity has decoupled from population just as you described. but as population declines so does spending, so eventually all those companies income starts declining.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676615)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 2:24 PM
Author: Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs

why does spending decline?

do lower population rich countries spend less than high population poor countries?

-------

beating around the bush here,

I think a good book to read and then ponder a bit is "Where's My Flying Car" by J Storrs Hall.

If you've got better things to do than devote 10+ hours reading a randomly recommended book on autoadmit, here's a pretty good summary -

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-wheres-my-flying

If you've got better things to do than read a linked summary, let me try to give you my 2 minute summary:

The basic observation if the book is that technological progress has stalled, the question is why, and what next.

basically if you had taken the rate of technological progress from 1900 - 1950 or so, and projected to today, by now, we'd live like the Jetson, we'd have too cheap to meter nuclear energy, we'd have flying cars, nanotechnology, etc etc etc.

why didn't that happen?

what the book spends a lot of time arguing, is that it isn't the laws of physics that prevented that from happening, it was the people and institutions.

in large part, that we're victims of our own success, that we got too comfortable, and started bickering over how to split up the already large pie instead of growing the pie (largely through stuff like regulating the nuclear industry largely out of business).

If these are human problems rather than physics problems, that has certain implications.

It means there is a glut of technological solutions once the humans are sufficiently incentivized to go looking for and implement them.

------

A thing to ponder is, how bad will human societies let things get before the implement available technological solutions?

If there are available technological solutions, who will figure out the human coordination problems, how and why will they do so?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47677082)



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Date: May 21st, 2024 8:54 AM
Author: Snowy narrow-minded field hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47679185)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:44 AM
Author: Bistre vibrant internal respiration menage

as the richest nation, we will draw in all the warm bodies and be one of the last to actually empty. but of course the bodies will be TTT.

things could level out once the 20th C gens die off, but they/we may be in some for some very hard senescence, with no one to pay taxes or wipe are asses

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676372)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:48 AM
Author: Rusted tattoo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676385)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:49 AM
Author: Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School

Post removed by moderator for violating The Law of The Land.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676388)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:53 AM
Author: Razzle charcoal preventive strike

(insane jewish scum)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676411)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 12:27 PM
Author: drab indirect expression new version

oh look a feces person has opinions!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676727)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 12:28 PM
Author: Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School

Post removed by moderator for violating The Law of The Land.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676728)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:42 AM
Author: walnut aphrodisiac site weed whacker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676362)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:43 AM
Author: Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School

Post removed by moderator for violating The Law of The Land.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676370)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:50 AM
Author: walnut aphrodisiac site weed whacker

where??

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676392)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:53 AM
Author: Razzle charcoal preventive strike

(insane jewish scum)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676412)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:42 AM
Author: Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School

Post removed by moderator for violating The Law of The Land.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676366)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 10:53 AM
Author: Razzle charcoal preventive strike

(insane jewish scum)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676413)



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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:54 AM
Author: Drunken Infuriating Liquid Oxygen School

Post removed by moderator for violating The Law of The Land.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530555&forum_id=2Reputation#47676622)