The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/10/15 |
| heady site degenerate | 12/12/15 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 01/02/17 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 01/06/16 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 01/06/16 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 06/05/16 |
| Boyish Tanning Salon | 03/26/16 |
| floppy library dopamine | 01/02/17 |
| Bipolar salmon institution legend | 10/25/18 |
| nighttime cruise ship | 12/10/15 |
| curious lay | 12/10/15 |
| Tan whorehouse knife | 12/10/15 |
| Painfully honest cracking base | 12/10/15 |
| Alcoholic clown | 12/15/15 |
| stirring demanding den | 12/10/15 |
| Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess | 12/10/15 |
| Startled Menage Scourge Upon The Earth | 12/10/15 |
| Mind-boggling Pit Turdskin | 12/11/15 |
| smoky cowardly kitchen | 12/12/15 |
| obsidian razzle-dazzle lodge | 12/16/15 |
| coiffed crimson trailer park | 01/04/16 |
| Milky dead juggernaut | 11/09/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/11/15 |
| Brilliant Bearded Space Masturbator | 12/11/15 |
| motley talking idea he suggested | 12/11/15 |
| Mind-boggling Pit Turdskin | 12/11/15 |
| french cerebral parlor tank | 12/12/15 |
| shaky stag film dog poop | 01/25/16 |
| Domesticated range people who are hurt | 11/10/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/12/15 |
| Glittery school | 12/12/15 |
| Electric Piazza Sex Offender | 12/12/15 |
| trip cruel-hearted resort | 12/12/15 |
| Vibrant Orchid Boistinker | 12/15/15 |
| chest-beating property | 12/21/15 |
| Bespoke Wine Rigor New Version | 12/12/15 |
| stubborn preventive strike | 12/12/15 |
| razzle apoplectic ticket booth ape | 12/12/15 |
| kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal | 12/12/15 |
| shimmering vengeful theatre tattoo | 12/12/15 |
| sooty associate | 12/12/15 |
| Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess | 12/15/15 |
| Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess | 12/16/15 |
| shivering puce plaza | 12/15/15 |
| sienna crawly gas station | 12/15/15 |
| sadistic crackhouse coldplay fan | 12/15/15 |
| multi-colored lilac church | 12/15/15 |
| Rusted heaven mediation | 12/15/15 |
| Aromatic indecent death wish dysfunction | 12/15/15 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/15/15 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/15/15 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/15/15 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/15/15 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 12/15/15 |
| supple corn cake | 01/05/16 |
| shaky stag film dog poop | 01/25/16 |
| charismatic regret | 12/17/16 |
| Marvelous azn kitty | 05/18/16 |
| Drunken Blathering Fanboi | 08/12/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/09/16 |
| garnet circlehead | 11/09/16 |
| Territorial lake newt | 11/09/16 |
| bright high-end garrison ceo | 10/22/20 |
| Laughsome Gold Private Investor Rigpig | 12/15/15 |
| Razzmatazz patrolman roast beef | 12/16/15 |
| navy jet-lagged chad | 12/16/15 |
| Transparent house | 12/16/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 12/16/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 12/17/15 |
| Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action | 12/18/15 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 01/06/16 |
| unhinged orchestra pit | 12/18/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 12/21/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 12/21/15 |
| chest-beating property | 12/21/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 12/30/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 12/30/15 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 01/04/16 |
| coiffed crimson trailer park | 01/04/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 01/05/16 |
| shaky stag film dog poop | 01/25/16 |
| Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action | 01/05/16 |
| Ruddy free-loading lettuce fortuitous meteor | 01/05/16 |
| Big Hell | 01/05/16 |
| claret cheese-eating stain | 01/05/16 |
| vigorous jew locale | 01/05/16 |
| claret cheese-eating stain | 01/05/16 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 01/06/16 |
| claret cheese-eating stain | 01/06/16 |
| vigorous jew locale | 01/05/16 |
| Drunken Blathering Fanboi | 01/06/16 |
| chest-beating property | 01/07/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 01/08/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 01/08/16 |
| chest-beating property | 01/08/16 |
| Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action | 01/09/16 |
| chest-beating property | 01/10/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 01/18/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 01/19/16 |
| Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action | 01/21/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 01/25/16 |
| lascivious box office | 01/25/16 |
| shaky stag film dog poop | 01/25/16 |
| lascivious box office | 02/09/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 09/06/16 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 11/05/18 |
| Passionate Duck-like Trump Supporter | 01/29/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 02/01/16 |
| Concupiscible Offensive Giraffe Toilet Seat | 02/01/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 02/01/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 02/07/16 |
| Ruddy free-loading lettuce fortuitous meteor | 02/09/16 |
| Hilarious Comical Elastic Band Immigrant | 02/09/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 02/20/16 |
| provocative magenta address doctorate | 02/20/16 |
| Marvelous azn kitty | 02/24/16 |
| Mentally impaired pale parlour yarmulke | 02/24/16 |
| outnumbered lemon point | 02/27/16 |
| shivering puce plaza | 03/09/16 |
| Bat shit crazy excitant nowag principal's office | 03/15/16 |
| Tan whorehouse knife | 03/15/16 |
| sienna crawly gas station | 03/16/16 |
| plum locus party of the first part | 02/24/16 |
| Titillating persian | 02/24/16 |
| sienna crawly gas station | 07/21/16 |
| appetizing stage potus | 02/24/16 |
| Tan whorehouse knife | 02/27/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/02/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/04/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/09/16 |
| Ruddy free-loading lettuce fortuitous meteor | 03/09/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/15/16 |
| Marvelous azn kitty | 03/15/16 |
| hyperactive office | 03/15/16 |
| 180 thirsty spot telephone | 03/15/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/16/16 |
| Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess | 03/16/16 |
| garnet circlehead | 03/23/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/23/16 |
| razzle apoplectic ticket booth ape | 03/26/16 |
| topaz selfie | 03/26/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/26/16 |
| supple corn cake | 03/28/16 |
| garnet circlehead | 03/28/16 |
| curious lay | 03/28/16 |
| Drunken Blathering Fanboi | 08/12/16 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 11/05/18 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/28/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/29/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 03/29/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 03/29/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/29/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/29/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/01/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/04/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 04/15/16 |
| Flatulent odious location | 04/15/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/19/16 |
| confused corner mental disorder | 04/20/16 |
| ebony senate | 04/20/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/24/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/25/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/26/16 |
| wonderful lime faggot firefighter | 04/26/16 |
| Hot hairraiser forum | 04/30/16 |
| violent tripping hominid | 05/01/16 |
| violent tripping hominid | 11/07/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/02/16 |
| garnet circlehead | 05/02/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/03/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Hall Useless Brakes | 05/03/16 |
| Copper exhilarant native | 05/03/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/04/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 05/04/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/05/16 |
| kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal | 05/05/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 05/05/16 |
| Titillating persian | 05/05/16 |
| Glittery school | 05/18/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/18/16 |
| Marvelous azn kitty | 05/18/16 |
| Glittery school | 05/18/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 05/29/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 06/20/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 06/29/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/14/16 |
| metal sneaky criminal | 07/15/16 |
| Drunken Blathering Fanboi | 07/15/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/17/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 07/17/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/21/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/22/16 |
| Charcoal pisswyrm | 07/22/16 |
| Disrespectful state | 07/23/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/24/16 |
| Blue foreskin | 07/25/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 07/25/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 07/27/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 08/05/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 08/09/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 08/12/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 08/12/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 08/12/16 |
| sexy opaque filthpig | 08/12/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 08/30/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 08/30/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 09/06/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 09/13/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 09/14/16 |
| Bespoke Wine Rigor New Version | 09/14/16 |
| twisted internet-worthy electric furnace | 09/15/16 |
| idiotic coffee pot | 09/15/16 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 09/15/16 |
| Purple round eye dingle berry | 09/15/16 |
| thriller roommate meetinghouse | 09/15/16 |
| pink brunch codepig | 09/19/16 |
| pink brunch codepig | 09/19/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 09/27/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 09/24/16 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 09/27/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 09/27/16 |
| Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess | 09/27/16 |
| Flickering Bateful Ratface | 10/08/16 |
| Well-lubricated theater voyeur | 07/29/24 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 09/28/16 |
| Bespoke Wine Rigor New Version | 09/28/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 09/28/16 |
| ebony senate | 09/28/16 |
| Flatulent odious location | 09/28/16 |
| Violet swashbuckling famous landscape painting station | 10/08/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 10/09/16 |
| Galvanic home | 10/09/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 10/09/16 |
| Soul-stirring school cafeteria | 10/09/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 10/10/16 |
| Blue foreskin | 10/30/16 |
| Drunken Blathering Fanboi | 11/01/16 |
| Purple round eye dingle berry | 11/01/16 |
| Bonkers Weed Whacker Church Building | 11/02/16 |
| multi-colored lilac church | 11/02/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 11/07/16 |
| Histrionic Red National Shitlib | 11/08/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 11/08/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/08/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 11/08/16 |
| cyan old irish cottage puppy | 11/08/16 |
| fragrant marketing idea | 11/08/16 |
| Concupiscible Offensive Giraffe Toilet Seat | 11/08/16 |
| pink brunch codepig | 11/08/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/08/16 |
| Fuchsia medicated dilemma trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| twisted internet-worthy electric furnace | 11/09/16 |
| Rambunctious Cocky Step-uncle's House | 11/09/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/09/16 |
| Purple round eye dingle berry | 11/09/16 |
| Fuchsia medicated dilemma trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| Blue foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal | 11/09/16 |
| Mahogany Infuriating Temple Black Woman | 12/03/16 |
| Domesticated range people who are hurt | 12/07/16 |
| charismatic regret | 12/17/16 |
| Dun startling hunting ground casino | 10/11/24 |
| racy abode | 11/09/16 |
| Vivacious alpha indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| At-the-ready main people | 11/09/16 |
| beady-eyed theater stage community account | 11/09/16 |
| Mahogany Infuriating Temple Black Woman | 11/09/16 |
| Drunken Blathering Fanboi | 11/09/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/09/16 |
| Glittery school | 11/09/16 |
| diverse big-titted field | 11/09/16 |
| cobalt cuck | 11/09/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/09/16 |
| Adventurous white love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| Amber contagious pozpig set | 11/09/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/09/16 |
| Painfully honest cracking base | 11/09/16 |
| unhinged orchestra pit | 11/10/16 |
| lascivious box office | 11/10/16 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 11/10/16 |
| Talented business firm | 11/10/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/10/16 |
| arousing quadroon hospital | 11/10/16 |
| provocative magenta address doctorate | 11/10/16 |
| pink brunch codepig | 11/14/16 |
| seedy bawdyhouse reading party | 11/14/16 |
| Orange Center Toaster | 12/04/16 |
| charismatic regret | 12/17/16 |
| Dun startling hunting ground casino | 10/11/24 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/25/16 |
| internal respiration area | 12/03/16 |
| Soul-stirring school cafeteria | 12/04/16 |
| impertinent hyperventilating university laser beams | 12/07/16 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 12/07/16 |
| internal respiration area | 12/07/16 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 01/02/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/02/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 01/02/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/02/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 03/03/20 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 01/02/17 |
| garnet circlehead | 01/16/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/20/17 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 01/20/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/23/17 |
| Violet swashbuckling famous landscape painting station | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/23/17 |
| bistre mildly autistic wagecucks shrine | 01/23/17 |
| Violet swashbuckling famous landscape painting station | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/25/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 01/26/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 02/06/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 02/13/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 02/27/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 05/03/17 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/03/17 |
| Autistic Stock Car | 09/21/17 |
| Tan whorehouse knife | 01/23/17 |
| Purple round eye dingle berry | 02/27/17 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 03/22/17 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 04/17/17 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/08/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 06/20/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 08/10/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 10/15/17 |
| garnet circlehead | 10/15/17 |
| Saffron Stead Nibblets | 10/15/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/06/17 |
| Rebellious sanctuary gaping | 11/06/17 |
| Burgundy Chapel | 11/08/17 |
| grizzly personal credit line | 11/08/17 |
| translucent embarrassed to the bone bbw generalized bond | 11/13/17 |
| garnet circlehead | 12/18/17 |
| diverse big-titted field | 12/18/17 |
| garnet circlehead | 12/18/17 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 01/30/18 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 06/01/18 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/18/18 |
| garnet circlehead | 07/19/18 |
| thriller roommate meetinghouse | 09/20/18 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 09/25/18 |
| curious lay | 10/06/18 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 10/06/18 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 10/25/18 |
| idiotic coffee pot | 10/25/18 |
| shaky stag film dog poop | 11/05/18 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 11/05/18 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 11/05/18 |
| Stimulating low-t stage mood | 11/05/18 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 01/08/19 |
| Elite International Law Enforcement Agency Athletic Conference | 02/23/19 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 03/13/19 |
| shaky stag film dog poop | 06/24/19 |
| tantric therapy depressive | 06/24/19 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 11/18/19 |
| Purple round eye dingle berry | 02/12/20 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 02/12/20 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 03/24/20 |
| clear public bath pocket flask | 03/24/20 |
| metal sneaky criminal | 04/04/20 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 04/26/20 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 05/13/20 |
| metal sneaky criminal | 06/05/20 |
| awkward antidepressant drug | 06/05/20 |
| metal sneaky criminal | 09/09/20 |
| Purple round eye dingle berry | 09/09/20 |
| nighttime cruise ship | 09/09/20 |
| Nubile Jap | 09/12/20 |
| Honey-headed crotch sound barrier | 09/24/20 |
| tantric therapy depressive | 10/09/20 |
| garnet circlehead | 10/10/20 |
| cream sweet tailpipe | 10/22/20 |
| Mahogany Infuriating Temple Black Woman | 10/22/20 |
| bright high-end garrison ceo | 10/22/20 |
| bright high-end garrison ceo | 10/22/20 |
| buff | 03/23/22 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 10/27/20 |
| walnut exciting queen of the night market | 10/27/20 |
| tantric therapy depressive | 10/30/20 |
| garnet circlehead | 11/03/20 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/22/22 |
| Dull | 03/23/22 |
| Gay Factory Reset Button | 03/23/22 |
| henna | 03/23/22 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 07/25/22 |
| nighttime cruise ship | 07/25/22 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 10/23/22 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 11/16/22 |
| Jade Mischievous Nursing Home | 04/25/23 |
| Glittery school | 04/25/23 |
| Honey-headed crotch sound barrier | 04/29/23 |
| Well-lubricated theater voyeur | 05/28/23 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 02/22/24 |
| Honey-headed crotch sound barrier | 02/23/24 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 05/23/24 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 08/26/24 |
| Honey-headed crotch sound barrier | 09/13/24 |
| nighttime cruise ship | 09/13/24 |
| Honey-headed crotch sound barrier | 10/18/24 |
| Dun startling hunting ground casino | 10/11/24 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 11/06/24 |
| kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal | 03/04/25 |
| kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal | 03/04/25 |
| thriller roommate meetinghouse | 03/04/25 |
| Dun startling hunting ground casino | 03/04/25 |
| hateful peach goal in life | 03/04/25 |
| bronze | 03/05/25 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/07/25 |
| milk | 03/07/25 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/08/25 |
| Sapphire | 03/08/25 |
| Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: heady site degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Boyish Tanning Salon 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: floppy library dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Bipolar salmon institution legend "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: nighttime cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: curious lay 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Tan whorehouse knife 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Painfully honest cracking base Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Alcoholic clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: stirring demanding den FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Startled Menage Scourge Upon The Earth Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Mind-boggling Pit Turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: smoky cowardly kitchen Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: obsidian razzle-dazzle lodge Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: coiffed crimson trailer park Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Milky dead juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Brilliant Bearded Space Masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: motley talking idea he suggested 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Mind-boggling Pit Turdskin November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: french cerebral parlor tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: shaky stag film dog poop Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Domesticated range people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Glittery school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Electric Piazza Sex Offender lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: trip cruel-hearted resort March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Vibrant Orchid Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: chest-beating property 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Bespoke Wine Rigor New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: stubborn preventive strike lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: razzle apoplectic ticket booth ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: shimmering vengeful theatre tattoo Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: sooty associate Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: shivering puce plaza 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: sienna crawly gas station fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: sadistic crackhouse coldplay fan I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: multi-colored lilac church 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Rusted heaven mediation February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Aromatic indecent death wish dysfunction You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: supple corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: shaky stag film dog poop Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: charismatic regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Marvelous azn kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Drunken Blathering Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Territorial lake newt Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bright high-end garrison ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Laughsome Gold Private Investor Rigpig This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Razzmatazz patrolman roast beef 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: navy jet-lagged chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Transparent house Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: unhinged orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: chest-beating property 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: coiffed crimson trailer park flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: shaky stag film dog poop Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Ruddy free-loading lettuce fortuitous meteor 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Big Hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: claret cheese-eating stain An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: vigorous jew locale 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: claret cheese-eating stain I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: claret cheese-eating stain Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: vigorous jew locale No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Drunken Blathering Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: chest-beating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: diverse big-titted field 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: chest-beating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: chest-beating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Spectacular Deranged Affirmative Action looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: lascivious box office 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: shaky stag film dog poop You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: lascivious box office No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: diverse big-titted field (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Passionate Duck-like Trump Supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Concupiscible Offensive Giraffe Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Ruddy free-loading lettuce fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Hilarious Comical Elastic Band Immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: provocative magenta address doctorate OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Marvelous azn kitty PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Mentally impaired pale parlour yarmulke The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: outnumbered lemon point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: shivering puce plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Bat shit crazy excitant nowag principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Tan whorehouse knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: sienna crawly gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: plum locus party of the first part hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Titillating persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: sienna crawly gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: appetizing stage potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Tan whorehouse knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Ruddy free-loading lettuce fortuitous meteor yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Marvelous azn kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: hyperactive office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: 180 thirsty spot telephone truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: razzle apoplectic ticket booth ape http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: topaz selfie Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: supple corn cake jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: curious lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Drunken Blathering Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: arousing quadroon hospital lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: arousing quadroon hospital "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: arousing quadroon hospital interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Flatulent odious location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: confused corner mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: ebony senate I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: wonderful lime faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Hot hairraiser forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: violent tripping hominid Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: violent tripping hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Hall Useless Brakes holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Copper exhilarant native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: diverse big-titted field 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Titillating persian Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Glittery school This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Marvelous azn kitty In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Glittery school cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: metal sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Drunken Blathering Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: diverse big-titted field 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Charcoal pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Disrespectful state Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Blue foreskin Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: arousing quadroon hospital amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: diverse big-titted field holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: sexy opaque filthpig LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: diverse big-titted field 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: diverse big-titted field lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: arousing quadroon hospital ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Bespoke Wine Rigor New Version Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: twisted internet-worthy electric furnace September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: idiotic coffee pot September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Purple round eye dingle berry XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: thriller roommate meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: pink brunch codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: pink brunch codepig The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: diverse big-titted field let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: diverse big-titted field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Chartreuse irradiated rehab jewess This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Flickering Bateful Ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Well-lubricated theater voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: arousing quadroon hospital http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Bespoke Wine Rigor New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: diverse big-titted field 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: ebony senate This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Flatulent odious location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Violet swashbuckling famous landscape painting station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: diverse big-titted field hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Galvanic home Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: diverse big-titted field doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Soul-stirring school cafeteria half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: arousing quadroon hospital nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Blue foreskin close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Drunken Blathering Fanboi Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Purple round eye dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Bonkers Weed Whacker Church Building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: multi-colored lilac church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: arousing quadroon hospital prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Histrionic Red National Shitlib You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: arousing quadroon hospital true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: arousing quadroon hospital ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: cyan old irish cottage puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: fragrant marketing idea Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Concupiscible Offensive Giraffe Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: pink brunch codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Fuchsia medicated dilemma trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: twisted internet-worthy electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Rambunctious Cocky Step-uncle's House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Purple round eye dingle berry GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Fuchsia medicated dilemma trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Blue foreskin it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Mahogany Infuriating Temple Black Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Domesticated range people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: charismatic regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Dun startling hunting ground casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: racy abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Vivacious alpha indian lodge Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: At-the-ready main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: beady-eyed theater stage community account 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Mahogany Infuriating Temple Black Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Drunken Blathering Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Glittery school this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: diverse big-titted field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: cobalt cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Adventurous white love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Amber contagious pozpig set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Painfully honest cracking base you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: unhinged orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: lascivious box office Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Talented business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: arousing quadroon hospital ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: provocative magenta address doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: pink brunch codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: seedy bawdyhouse reading party They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Orange Center Toaster Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: charismatic regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Dun startling hunting ground casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: internal respiration area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Soul-stirring school cafeteria GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: impertinent hyperventilating university laser beams https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: internal respiration area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Violet swashbuckling famous landscape painting station TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: bistre mildly autistic wagecucks shrine I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Violet swashbuckling famous landscape painting station it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Autistic Stock Car https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Tan whorehouse knife this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Purple round eye dingle berry One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Saffron Stead Nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Rebellious sanctuary gaping credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Burgundy Chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: grizzly personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: translucent embarrassed to the bone bbw generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: diverse big-titted field Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: thriller roommate meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: curious lay It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: idiotic coffee pot Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: shaky stag film dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Stimulating low-t stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Elite International Law Enforcement Agency Athletic Conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: shaky stag film dog poop There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: tantric therapy depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Purple round eye dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: clear public bath pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: metal sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: metal sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: awkward antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: metal sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Purple round eye dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: nighttime cruise ship Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Nubile Jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Honey-headed crotch sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: tantric therapy depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: cream sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Mahogany Infuriating Temple Black Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bright high-end garrison ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: bright high-end garrison ceo https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: buff (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: walnut exciting queen of the night market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: tantric therapy depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: garnet circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Dull (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Gay Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: henna 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: nighttime cruise ship A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Jade Mischievous Nursing Home https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Glittery school why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Honey-headed crotch sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Well-lubricated theater voyeur FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Honey-headed crotch sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Honey-headed crotch sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: nighttime cruise ship One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Honey-headed crotch sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Dun startling hunting ground casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: kink-friendly adulterous son of senegal https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: thriller roommate meetinghouse Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Dun startling hunting ground casino The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: hateful peach goal in life He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: bronze (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: milk 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Sapphire Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Dashing Buck-toothed Half-breed Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#49679495) |