3I/ATLAS is likely a comet from a faraway place. Or is it?

There’s a visitor in town, and its name is 3I/ATLAS. The presumed interstellar comet presents a rare opportunity for astronomers to study an object born a long time ago in a star system far, far away. But a new paper uploaded to the preprint arXiv server asks an intriguing question: Is the object actually alien technology?

For Harvard astronomer and study co-author Abraham Loeb, this is not his first interstellar rodeo. In 2018, Loeb proposed that the interstellar object ‘Oumuamua might be an alien probe. He’s now back at it, along with co-authors Adam Hibberd and Adam Crowl from the UK’s Initiative for Interstellar Studies, asking the same question about 3I/ATLAS.

The team is essentially flagging 3I/ATLAS as a candidate for alien technology and, perhaps alarmingly, as something that might actually pose an existential threat to humanity. Sounds absolutely bonkers, but it’s a topic worth exploring and not something to reflexively toss onto the garbage heap.

Almost certainly a comet

From the moment it entered our view, 3I/ATLAS—the third interstellar object ever detected in our solar system—instantly became the biggest news in astronomy for the month, if not the year. Astronomers are using the rare opportunity to study the object in as much detail as possible using the best instruments available. A clear picture of the object is emerging, suggesting it’s very likely an enormous, icy comet that’s considerably older than our solar system; preliminary estimates suggest it’s 0.74 miles long (1.2 kilometers) and dates back some 7 billion years.

An Interstellar Comet Is Here, and Its Age Is Mind-Bending

The interstellar interloper is zipping through our solar system at ludicrous speeds, clocking in at 37 miles (60 kilometers) per second. Its velocity is so extreme that it’ll exit our solar system and disappear from our view later this year, escaping the gravitational influence of our Sun. Astronomers are therefore under a tight deadline to understand everything they possibly can about 3I/ATLAS—an object that originated in some faraway protoplanetary or planetary system.

That said, astronomers have already made some great strides in sketching out the finer details of 3I/ATLAS, quickly churning out papers pertaining to the visitor’s age, size, velocity, spin, and, most importantly, its origin, based on observational data. According to research released earlier this week, the object is a jumble of organic molecules, silicates, and carbon-based minerals, placing it in a similar compositional category as asteroids found between Mars and Jupiter.

Based on current data—much of it from researchers working with the newly launched Vera C. Rubin Observatory—3I/ATLAS is expected to pass through the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter later this fall, reaching its closest point to the Sun in late October. Excitingly, the Sun’s warmth should sublimate enough ice on the comet to brighten the coma and tail even further.

Occam’s comet

Suffice it to say, astronomers’ ongoing investigations into 3I/ATLAS largely confirm that it’s a cometary castaway. Like other comets we’ve seen before, 3I/ATLAS likely emerged from natural processes and was banished to interstellar space by some gravitational interaction, such as a close encounter with a gigantic planet or a passing star. Importantly, and despite strange, unfounded claims made in the new Loeb paper, there’s zero indication that 3I/ATLAS is anything but a natural object formed by natural processes.

Yet that hasn’t stopped Loeb and his colleagues from venturing beyond the existing evidence. What’s more, they’ve violated Occam’s razor—a central tenet of the scientific method. Scientists are told that the simplest explanation is often the best when tackling puzzling phenomena. In this case, the simplest explanation, given the existing evidence, is that 3I/ATLAS is a comet. Often, when astronomers detect something unusual or inexplicable in space, there’s the urge to invoke extraterrestrial influence.

The Many, Many Times Astronomers Mistook Mundane Phenomena for Aliens

This seems to be the case here, but as we’ll discuss next, these researchers are not wrong to be asking these sorts of questions. As Sara Webb, an astrophysicist at the Swinburne University of Technology, wrote in The Conversation, “Objects like 3I/ATLAS remind us that space is vast, strange, and full of surprises. Most of them have natural explanations. But the strangest objects are worth a second look.”

The Great Silence and the vexing Fermi question

Loeb and his colleagues do bring up a salient point—that we need to be curious about this object and not simply assume that it is what we think it is. Moreover, the team’s warning that this object, should it be an alien probe, poses a potential hostile threat to humanity is rooted in some fascinating—if not disturbing—philosophical arguments having to do with our failed search for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence.

The first is the Fermi Paradox—the surprising observation that, despite our galaxy’s immense size and extreme age, we have yet to see any signs of intelligent aliens. As Italian physicist Enrico Fermi famously asked in 1950, “Where is everybody?” This conundrum, known as the Great Silence, is not so easy to brush aside, as virtually all proposed solutions fail to convincingly account for the conspicuous absence of a Milky Way filled with extraterrestrials and extraterrestrial technology.

This has led a number of philosophers, astrobiologists, and science-fiction writers to propose some rather grim solutions to the Fermi Paradox, that is, solutions that point to a galaxy devoid of space-faring civilizations. Loeb’s new paper invokes one of these solutions, an idea known as the Dark Forest hypothesis. The term is borrowed from sci-fi author Liu Cixin, who made note of this possibility in his The Three-Body Problem trilogy, specifically the 2008 novel The Dark Forest.

In Liu’s imagined universe, intelligent civilizations stay silent and hidden because any interaction with aliens could be fatal; since it’s impossible to know another civilization’s intentions, the safest move is to eliminate potential threats before they can act. Hence, a Dark Forest galaxy, in which advanced civilizations take the form of silent hunters.

This general concept didn’t start with Liu; sci-fi novelist and SETI expert David Brin has been ruminating over the possibility of killer alien probes since 1983.

Danger, Will Robinson!

As Loeb and his colleagues argue in the new paper, 3I/ATLAS, should it be artificial, is likely to possess “active intelligence.” If that’s the case, the object might be friendly, evil, or possibly something in between, they write. If it’s benign, we can relax, but it’s the second possibility—that it’s malign—that’s cause for “most concern.” That’s because the Dark Forest resolution to the Fermi Paradox is the more likely scenario, “as it would neatly explain the singular lack of success of the SETI initiative to-date,” according to the paper.

In other words, the reason we have yet to encounter aliens is that they’re stealthy hunters, and this interstellar visitor, should it be a probe, likely belongs to that class of civilizations. Which is obviously not good for us. This argument brings the Berserker probe concept to mind, an idea proposed by another science fiction writer, Fred Saberhagen. The concept is as simple as it is disturbing: the solution to the Fermi Paradox is that all intelligent life is wiped out by self-replicating machines—known as Von Neumann probes—that methodically sterilize the galaxy of intelligence.

All this talk of interstellar probes may seem outlandish, but there are a few things worth considering. First, our galaxy, across its 13-billion-year history, has likely spawned numerous advanced civilizations, many of which were (or are) capable of launching probes on interstellar missions. Secondly, we ourselves have already launched three interstellar (or interstellar-bound) probes as a result of exploring our immediate environment: both Voyager probes and New Horizons.

It’s therefore not unreasonable to assume that interstellar probes of varying ages and technologies are zipping around the Milky Way. One day, we just might spot one of these alien artifacts passing through our neck of the celestial woods. Let’s hope it’s friendly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5754744&forum_id=2Reputation#49131978)