The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/10/15 |
| Talented White Tanning Salon Pocket Flask | 12/12/15 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 01/02/17 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 01/06/16 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 01/06/16 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 06/05/16 |
| Swashbuckling electric furnace | 03/26/16 |
| Overrated zippy den | 01/02/17 |
| sinister theater | 10/25/18 |
| smoky feces | 12/10/15 |
| flesh vengeful center | 12/10/15 |
| Boyish useless brakes milk | 12/10/15 |
| curious out-of-control fanboi institution | 12/10/15 |
| Beta adventurous prole spot | 12/15/15 |
| stimulating turdskin heaven | 12/10/15 |
| exhilarant ticket booth dragon | 12/10/15 |
| Bateful Hot Juggernaut | 12/10/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle station knife | 12/11/15 |
| turquoise sickened home | 12/12/15 |
| Violent mother headpube | 12/16/15 |
| blathering mentally impaired famous landscape painting piazza | 01/04/16 |
| trip shrine azn | 11/09/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/11/15 |
| judgmental chocolate range affirmative action | 12/11/15 |
| deranged pearl indian lodge | 12/11/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle station knife | 12/11/15 |
| Lake exciting church | 12/12/15 |
| histrionic insane hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Know-it-all patrolman crackhouse | 11/10/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/12/15 |
| Silver kitchen | 12/12/15 |
| aggressive weed whacker address | 12/12/15 |
| magenta immigrant university | 12/12/15 |
| vigorous native | 12/15/15 |
| razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker | 12/21/15 |
| Soggy Passionate Scourge Upon The Earth School Cafeteria | 12/12/15 |
| Bearded Halford | 12/12/15 |
| Underhanded degenerate house | 12/12/15 |
| Titillating doobsian wagecucks office | 12/12/15 |
| Fighting Swollen Half-breed | 12/12/15 |
| cobalt state | 12/12/15 |
| exhilarant ticket booth dragon | 12/15/15 |
| exhilarant ticket booth dragon | 12/16/15 |
| Galvanic Becky | 12/15/15 |
| Marvelous whorehouse | 12/15/15 |
| high-end racy love of her life nursing home | 12/15/15 |
| demanding irradiated place of business resort | 12/15/15 |
| useless naked hell psychic | 12/15/15 |
| amber thriller foreskin meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/15/15 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/15/15 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/15/15 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/15/15 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 12/15/15 |
| Puce concupiscible nibblets | 01/05/16 |
| histrionic insane hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Azure double fault | 12/17/16 |
| startling goal in life | 05/18/16 |
| Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease | 08/12/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 11/09/16 |
| vivacious cruel-hearted boltzmann hall | 11/09/16 |
| Talking trailer park | 10/22/20 |
| Dashing kitty cat | 12/15/15 |
| soul-stirring godawful cruise ship | 12/16/15 |
| zombie-like bonkers sanctuary | 12/16/15 |
| Multi-colored hairless business firm | 12/16/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 12/16/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 12/17/15 |
| arousing avocado school masturbator | 12/18/15 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 01/06/16 |
| Outnumbered Toilet Seat Shitlib | 12/18/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 12/21/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 12/21/15 |
| razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker | 12/21/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 12/30/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 12/30/15 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 01/04/16 |
| blathering mentally impaired famous landscape painting piazza | 01/04/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 01/05/16 |
| histrionic insane hominid | 01/25/16 |
| arousing avocado school masturbator | 01/05/16 |
| Yellow philosopher-king stage | 01/05/16 |
| well-lubricated pit | 01/05/16 |
| abnormal flirting location | 01/05/16 |
| Stirring volcanic crater marketing idea | 01/05/16 |
| abnormal flirting location | 01/05/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 01/06/16 |
| abnormal flirting location | 01/06/16 |
| Stirring volcanic crater marketing idea | 01/05/16 |
| Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease | 01/06/16 |
| razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker | 01/07/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 01/08/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 01/08/16 |
| razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker | 01/08/16 |
| arousing avocado school masturbator | 01/09/16 |
| razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker | 01/10/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 01/18/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 01/19/16 |
| arousing avocado school masturbator | 01/21/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 01/25/16 |
| Shaky topaz roast beef | 01/25/16 |
| histrionic insane hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Shaky topaz roast beef | 02/09/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 09/06/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 11/05/18 |
| Lascivious Locale | 01/29/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 02/01/16 |
| wonderful alcoholic area | 02/01/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 02/01/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 02/07/16 |
| Yellow philosopher-king stage | 02/09/16 |
| odious pungent trump supporter wrinkle | 02/09/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 02/20/16 |
| Arrogant principal's office depressive | 02/20/16 |
| startling goal in life | 02/24/16 |
| electric duck-like queen of the night | 02/24/16 |
| Aromatic burgundy son of senegal | 02/27/16 |
| Galvanic Becky | 03/09/16 |
| crawly tattoo menage | 03/15/16 |
| Boyish useless brakes milk | 03/15/16 |
| Marvelous whorehouse | 03/16/16 |
| adulterous light national | 02/24/16 |
| Orange brunch | 02/24/16 |
| Marvelous whorehouse | 07/21/16 |
| Cerebral scarlet sound barrier | 02/24/16 |
| Boyish useless brakes milk | 02/27/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/02/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/04/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/09/16 |
| Yellow philosopher-king stage | 03/09/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/15/16 |
| startling goal in life | 03/15/16 |
| Shimmering Partner Hairy Legs | 03/15/16 |
| Supple potus | 03/15/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/16/16 |
| exhilarant ticket booth dragon | 03/16/16 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 03/23/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/23/16 |
| Underhanded degenerate house | 03/26/16 |
| dead idea he suggested | 03/26/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/26/16 |
| Puce concupiscible nibblets | 03/28/16 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 03/28/16 |
| flesh vengeful center | 03/28/16 |
| Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease | 08/12/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 11/05/18 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/28/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/29/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 03/29/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 03/29/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/29/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/29/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/01/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/04/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 04/15/16 |
| Cheese-eating Buff Step-uncle's House Faggot Firefighter | 04/15/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/19/16 |
| fragrant corner generalized bond | 04/20/16 |
| disrespectful rough-skinned dilemma | 04/20/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/24/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/25/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/26/16 |
| Impressive giraffe | 04/26/16 |
| Stubborn frisky orchestra pit | 04/30/16 |
| Bat-shit-crazy Base | 05/01/16 |
| Bat-shit-crazy Base | 11/07/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/02/16 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 05/02/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/03/16 |
| mind-boggling church building | 05/03/16 |
| Effete frum laser beams | 05/03/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/04/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 05/04/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/05/16 |
| Titillating doobsian wagecucks office | 05/05/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 05/05/16 |
| Orange brunch | 05/05/16 |
| Silver kitchen | 05/18/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/18/16 |
| startling goal in life | 05/18/16 |
| Silver kitchen | 05/18/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 05/29/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 06/20/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 06/29/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/14/16 |
| heady flickering market ratface | 07/15/16 |
| Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease | 07/15/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/17/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 07/17/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/21/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/22/16 |
| honey-headed party of the first part | 07/22/16 |
| Embarrassed To The Bone Khaki Brethren Public Bath | 07/23/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/24/16 |
| Fishy bossy clown | 07/25/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 07/25/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 07/27/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 08/05/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 08/09/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 08/12/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 08/12/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 08/12/16 |
| Provocative Persian Sweet Tailpipe | 08/12/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 08/30/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 08/30/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 09/06/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 09/13/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 09/14/16 |
| Soggy Passionate Scourge Upon The Earth School Cafeteria | 09/14/16 |
| Beady-eyed crystalline french chef | 09/15/16 |
| charismatic stead | 09/15/16 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 09/15/16 |
| laughsome lodge dysfunction | 09/15/16 |
| Elite Chad | 09/15/16 |
| Big drab abode | 09/19/16 |
| Big drab abode | 09/19/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 09/27/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 09/24/16 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 09/27/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 09/27/16 |
| exhilarant ticket booth dragon | 09/27/16 |
| Olive Crusty Antidepressant Drug | 10/08/16 |
| appetizing point | 07/29/24 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 09/28/16 |
| Soggy Passionate Scourge Upon The Earth School Cafeteria | 09/28/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 09/28/16 |
| disrespectful rough-skinned dilemma | 09/28/16 |
| Cheese-eating Buff Step-uncle's House Faggot Firefighter | 09/28/16 |
| Hairraiser pistol | 10/08/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 10/09/16 |
| Kink-friendly aphrodisiac senate | 10/09/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 10/09/16 |
| chartreuse site round eye | 10/09/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 10/10/16 |
| Fishy bossy clown | 10/30/16 |
| Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease | 11/01/16 |
| laughsome lodge dysfunction | 11/01/16 |
| french plaza codepig | 11/02/16 |
| demanding irradiated place of business resort | 11/02/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 11/07/16 |
| Fantasy-prone nofapping liquid oxygen parlor | 11/08/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 11/08/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/08/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 11/08/16 |
| 180 ebony rigor mental disorder | 11/08/16 |
| flushed vibrant forum macaca | 11/08/16 |
| wonderful alcoholic area | 11/08/16 |
| Big drab abode | 11/08/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/08/16 |
| misanthropic hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed crystalline french chef | 11/09/16 |
| Spectacular brass stage | 11/09/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| laughsome lodge dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| misanthropic hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Fishy bossy clown | 11/09/16 |
| Titillating doobsian wagecucks office | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse Violent Chapel | 12/03/16 |
| Know-it-all patrolman crackhouse | 12/07/16 |
| Azure double fault | 12/17/16 |
| Canary genital piercing | 10/11/24 |
| fiercely-loyal garrison corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| contagious black ladyboy set | 11/09/16 |
| buck-toothed mood | 11/09/16 |
| Opaque main people keepsake machete | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse Violent Chapel | 11/09/16 |
| Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease | 11/09/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| Silver kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 11/09/16 |
| vermilion ceo | 11/09/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| excitant offensive mexican library | 11/09/16 |
| theatre tank | 11/09/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| curious out-of-control fanboi institution | 11/09/16 |
| Outnumbered Toilet Seat Shitlib | 11/10/16 |
| Shaky topaz roast beef | 11/10/16 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 11/10/16 |
| sexy skinny woman | 11/10/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/10/16 |
| cracking bawdyhouse therapy | 11/10/16 |
| Arrogant principal's office depressive | 11/10/16 |
| Big drab abode | 11/14/16 |
| Disgusting Personal Credit Line Temple | 11/14/16 |
| crimson idiot reading party | 12/04/16 |
| Azure double fault | 12/17/16 |
| Canary genital piercing | 10/11/24 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/25/16 |
| Garnet box office | 12/03/16 |
| chartreuse site round eye | 12/04/16 |
| Cerise sandwich | 12/07/16 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 12/07/16 |
| Garnet box office | 12/07/16 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 01/02/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/02/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 01/02/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/02/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 03/03/20 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 01/02/17 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 01/16/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/20/17 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 01/20/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/23/17 |
| Hairraiser pistol | 01/23/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/23/17 |
| Lilac Very Tactful Police Squad Locus | 01/23/17 |
| Hairraiser pistol | 01/23/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/23/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/25/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 01/26/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 02/06/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 02/13/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 02/27/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 05/03/17 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/03/17 |
| gold insanely creepy rehab pervert | 09/21/17 |
| Boyish useless brakes milk | 01/23/17 |
| laughsome lodge dysfunction | 02/27/17 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 03/22/17 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 04/17/17 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/08/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 06/20/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 08/10/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 10/15/17 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 10/15/17 |
| big-titted parlour jap | 10/15/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/06/17 |
| Iridescent Doctorate Casino | 11/06/17 |
| peach selfie theater stage | 11/08/17 |
| harsh cumskin | 11/08/17 |
| Insecure legend | 11/13/17 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 12/18/17 |
| Motley wine space nowag | 12/18/17 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 12/18/17 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 01/30/18 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 06/01/18 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/18/18 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 07/19/18 |
| Elite Chad | 09/20/18 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 09/25/18 |
| flesh vengeful center | 10/06/18 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 10/06/18 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 10/25/18 |
| charismatic stead | 10/25/18 |
| histrionic insane hominid | 11/05/18 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 11/05/18 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 11/05/18 |
| Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film | 11/05/18 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 01/08/19 |
| tripping property toaster | 02/23/19 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 03/13/19 |
| histrionic insane hominid | 06/24/19 |
| Cuckold | 06/24/19 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 11/18/19 |
| laughsome lodge dysfunction | 02/12/20 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 02/12/20 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 03/24/20 |
| erotic bronze mediation | 03/24/20 |
| heady flickering market ratface | 04/04/20 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 04/26/20 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 05/13/20 |
| heady flickering market ratface | 06/05/20 |
| Domesticated Milky Dingle Berry Cuck | 06/05/20 |
| heady flickering market ratface | 09/09/20 |
| laughsome lodge dysfunction | 09/09/20 |
| smoky feces | 09/09/20 |
| aquamarine black woman | 09/12/20 |
| 09/24/20 |
| Cuckold | 10/09/20 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 10/10/20 |
| Cream drunken new version | 10/22/20 |
| Diverse Violent Chapel | 10/22/20 |
| Talking trailer park | 10/22/20 |
| Talking trailer park | 10/22/20 |
| learning disabled awkward | 03/23/22 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 10/27/20 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy field | 10/27/20 |
| Cuckold | 10/30/20 |
| Floppy orchid friendly grandma | 11/03/20 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/22/22 |
| Green | 03/23/22 |
| gaming laptop | 03/23/22 |
| 03/23/22 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 07/25/22 |
| smoky feces | 07/25/22 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 10/23/22 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 11/16/22 |
| Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund | 04/25/23 |
| Silver kitchen | 04/25/23 |
| 04/29/23 |
| appetizing point | 05/28/23 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 02/22/24 |
| 02/23/24 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/23/24 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 08/26/24 |
| 09/13/24 |
| smoky feces | 09/13/24 |
| 10/18/24 |
| Canary genital piercing | 10/11/24 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 11/06/24 |
| Titillating doobsian wagecucks office | 03/04/25 |
| Titillating doobsian wagecucks office | 03/04/25 |
| Elite Chad | 03/04/25 |
| Canary genital piercing | 03/04/25 |
| maniacal alpha water buffalo | 03/04/25 |
| Mauve Preventive Strike | 03/05/25 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/07/25 |
| balding twinkling uncleanness | 03/07/25 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/08/25 |
| saffron | 03/08/25 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 03/08/25 |
| Boyish useless brakes milk | 02/18/26 |
| Abusive Indirect Expression | 05/15/26 |
| newt | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Talented White Tanning Salon Pocket Flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Swashbuckling electric furnace 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Overrated zippy den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: sinister theater "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: smoky feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: flesh vengeful center 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Boyish useless brakes milk 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: curious out-of-control fanboi institution Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Beta adventurous prole spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: stimulating turdskin heaven FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: exhilarant ticket booth dragon Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Bateful Hot Juggernaut Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle station knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: turquoise sickened home Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Violent mother headpube Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: blathering mentally impaired famous landscape painting piazza Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: trip shrine azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: judgmental chocolate range affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: deranged pearl indian lodge 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle station knife November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Lake exciting church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: histrionic insane hominid Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Know-it-all patrolman crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Silver kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: aggressive weed whacker address lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: magenta immigrant university March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: vigorous native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Soggy Passionate Scourge Upon The Earth School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Bearded Halford lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Underhanded degenerate house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Titillating doobsian wagecucks office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Fighting Swollen Half-breed Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: cobalt state Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: exhilarant ticket booth dragon OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: exhilarant ticket booth dragon And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Galvanic Becky 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Marvelous whorehouse fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: high-end racy love of her life nursing home I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: demanding irradiated place of business resort 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: useless naked hell psychic February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: amber thriller foreskin meetinghouse You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Puce concupiscible nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: histrionic insane hominid Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Azure double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: startling goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: vivacious cruel-hearted boltzmann hall Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Talking trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Dashing kitty cat This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: soul-stirring godawful cruise ship 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: zombie-like bonkers sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Multi-colored hairless business firm Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: arousing avocado school masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Outnumbered Toilet Seat Shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: blathering mentally impaired famous landscape painting piazza flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: histrionic insane hominid Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: arousing avocado school masturbator From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Yellow philosopher-king stage 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: well-lubricated pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: abnormal flirting location An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Stirring volcanic crater marketing idea 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: abnormal flirting location I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: abnormal flirting location Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Stirring volcanic crater marketing idea No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Motley wine space nowag 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: arousing avocado school masturbator http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: razzle onyx national security agency candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: arousing avocado school masturbator looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Shaky topaz roast beef 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: histrionic insane hominid You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Shaky topaz roast beef No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162047) |
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Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Lascivious Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29708433) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: wonderful alcoholic area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29771453) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Yellow philosopher-king stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791735) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: odious pungent trump supporter wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791763) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Arrogant principal's office depressive OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: startling goal in life PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: electric duck-like queen of the night The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Aromatic burgundy son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931652) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Galvanic Becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015868) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: crawly tattoo menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066562) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Boyish useless brakes milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066681) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Marvelous whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070592) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: adulterous light national hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Orange brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Marvelous whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Cerebral scarlet sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Boyish useless brakes milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Yellow philosopher-king stage yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: startling goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Shimmering Partner Hairy Legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Supple potus truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: exhilarant ticket booth dragon March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Underhanded degenerate house http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: dead idea he suggested Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Puce concupiscible nibblets jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: flesh vengeful center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Cheese-eating Buff Step-uncle's House Faggot Firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: fragrant corner generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: disrespectful rough-skinned dilemma I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Impressive giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Stubborn frisky orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Base Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: mind-boggling church building holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Effete frum laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Titillating doobsian wagecucks office Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Orange brunch Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Silver kitchen This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: startling goal in life In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Silver kitchen cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: heady flickering market ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Motley wine space nowag 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: honey-headed party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Embarrassed To The Bone Khaki Brethren Public Bath Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Fishy bossy clown Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Motley wine space nowag holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Provocative Persian Sweet Tailpipe LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Motley wine space nowag 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Soggy Passionate Scourge Upon The Earth School Cafeteria Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Beady-eyed crystalline french chef September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: charismatic stead September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: laughsome lodge dysfunction XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Elite Chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Big drab abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Big drab abode The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: exhilarant ticket booth dragon This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Olive Crusty Antidepressant Drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: appetizing point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Soggy Passionate Scourge Upon The Earth School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: disrespectful rough-skinned dilemma This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Cheese-eating Buff Step-uncle's House Faggot Firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Hairraiser pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Kink-friendly aphrodisiac senate Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: chartreuse site round eye half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Fishy bossy clown close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: laughsome lodge dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: french plaza codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: demanding irradiated place of business resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Fantasy-prone nofapping liquid oxygen parlor You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: 180 ebony rigor mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: flushed vibrant forum macaca Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: wonderful alcoholic area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Big drab abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: misanthropic hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Beady-eyed crystalline french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Spectacular brass stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: laughsome lodge dysfunction GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: misanthropic hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Fishy bossy clown it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Titillating doobsian wagecucks office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Diverse Violent Chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Know-it-all patrolman crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Azure double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Canary genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: fiercely-loyal garrison corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: contagious black ladyboy set Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: buck-toothed mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Opaque main people keepsake machete 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Diverse Violent Chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Comical Gas Station Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Silver kitchen this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: vermilion ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: excitant offensive mexican library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: theatre tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: curious out-of-control fanboi institution you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Outnumbered Toilet Seat Shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Shaky topaz roast beef Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: sexy skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: cracking bawdyhouse therapy ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Arrogant principal's office depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Big drab abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Disgusting Personal Credit Line Temple They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: crimson idiot reading party Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Azure double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Canary genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Garnet box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: chartreuse site round eye GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Cerise sandwich https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Garnet box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Hairraiser pistol TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Lilac Very Tactful Police Squad Locus I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Hairraiser pistol it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: gold insanely creepy rehab pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Boyish useless brakes milk this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: laughsome lodge dysfunction One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: big-titted parlour jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Iridescent Doctorate Casino credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: peach selfie theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: harsh cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Insecure legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Motley wine space nowag Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Elite Chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: flesh vengeful center It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: charismatic stead Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: histrionic insane hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Razzmatazz Tantric Stag Film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: tripping property toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: histrionic insane hominid There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: laughsome lodge dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: erotic bronze mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: heady flickering market ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: heady flickering market ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Domesticated Milky Dingle Berry Cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: heady flickering market ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: laughsome lodge dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: smoky feces Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: aquamarine black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Cream drunken new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Diverse Violent Chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Talking trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Talking trailer park https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: learning disabled awkward (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Floppy orchid friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Green (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: smoky feces A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Obsidian Hateful Lay Trust Fund https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Silver kitchen why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: appetizing point FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: smoky feces One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Canary genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Titillating doobsian wagecucks office 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Titillating doobsian wagecucks office https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Elite Chad Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Canary genital piercing The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: maniacal alpha water buffalo He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Mauve Preventive Strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: balding twinkling uncleanness 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: saffron Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Boyish useless brakes milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Abusive Indirect Expression ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: newt i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#50060136) |