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Going to start cataloging my Ukraine analysis and prediction threads ITT
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 20th, 2023 6:46 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Trying to keep this chronological. Looks like this is a good starting point.
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5104465&mc=10&forum_id=2
I could go to the way back to February, except that back then I sincerely believed Russia was fucked. I stopped following things March and didn't really start following events again until July.
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Date: January 20th, 2023 6:48 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5151775&mc=2&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45817845) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 6:49 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5152678&mc=18&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45817851) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 6:50 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5152825&mc=4&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45817857) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 6:58 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Looks like late July was when I started to dig in. This was the first of many HIMARS threads.
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5163097&mc=4&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:13 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary This turned out to be an accurate characterization of the August counteroffensive. From top to bottom, it consisted of Ukrainians driving into areas where risk of combat was minimal.
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5187865&mc=24&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:14 PM Author: curious emerald field indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45817990) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:39 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Too bad the original tweet is gone. This is when we first got satellite pics of Russian trenches. Ukraine at this time had NOTRENCHES.
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5234613&mc=77&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:47 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5235827&mc=15&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818130) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 11:06 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Of course this dick rider posts the same info months later with no actual satellite photos. He makes an interactive map that is less informative than tweets from two months ago.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1616586631812636679?t=UPErj-5SLQ4dEIeWbiXT9A&s=19 |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:41 PM Author: Crystalline den NSAM, to be fair, u were no where to be found on xoxo exactly one year ago, when I joined the board, and predicted Putin would invade Ukraine 2 days after the Winter Olympics in China (delaying the onslaught merely to appease Xi)-- so don't come here with your Johnny come lately pro-Russian/Putin bootlicking (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818115) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:44 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary I was right here predicting that Putin would not invade. I am open about my failed predictions.I made many before late July.
Interestingly, we just learned within the last few days that Zelensky also did not think Russia would invade. Burns visited him personally in January 2022 and said invasion was imminent, but Zelensky told him Russia was just posturing and the troop movements were flame. |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:49 PM Author: Crystalline den that is exactly right: Macron/France and all of Germany accused Biden of war mongering and the CIA of a fear campaign undermining European peace and stability, as late as February 1, 2022; I was the first to suggest Germany and Russia/Putin were in cahoots for a Pearl Harbor attack and quick surrender by Ukraine--truth turns out Putin had longstanding premeditated plans to fuck Ukraine up the ass {war of attrition and genocide}, Zelenskyy and the rest of Europe none the wiser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818135) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:54 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary I strongly believe the shot callers in Germany wanted a limited war and wanted Russia to win in the end, but I can't prove it. They certainly acted consistent with that intent. France too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818153) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:56 PM Author: Crystalline den yes, Germany made a secret non-aggression pact with Putin, book it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818158) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Let's see if I end up being wrong about this. Maybe I will, but I think Kiev can be taken without a fight, like Kabul most recently.
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5237371&mc=1&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 8:48 PM Author: Crystalline den to be fair, your analysis of America's debacle in Kabul was tough but fair: incidentally, I met a state dept atty, much like urself, who admitted many American translators were hunted down and executed by the Taliban after we cut and ran from Afghanistan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818415) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 9:22 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary ty that was tough to talk about (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818546) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 9:24 PM Author: Crystalline den and yes, I concede, ur support for the early Donald Trump 45 against forever wars suddenly sounded real and cogent, touche (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818552) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2023 7:47 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Looking good so far. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45831695) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 7:59 PM Author: slate shitlib mexican Why aren't you summarizing your predictions? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818169) |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 9:36 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary I did get a fair number wrong for one thing. Mostly I thought Ukraine would have a food crisis before it had an energy crisis. I thought Russia would bomb food stores before it went for the electricity grid and I thought we would see real food insecurity in December.
Ukraine also pulled off some stunts I wouldn't have predicted, mostly assassinations of local officials installed by the Russians, and later on some rail sabotage. I thought maybe I had underestimated their reach. |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 9:44 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary Obviously I got this one wrong:
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5187780&mc=89&forum_id=2
I still think Ukraine lacked a strategy for winning. They had to do something to shake Russian morale badly but this wasn't it. |
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Date: January 20th, 2023 9:29 PM Author: Swashbuckling Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#45818570) |
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Date: July 30th, 2026 11:15 PM Author: Jared Baumeister Shoulda listened to NSAM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5274507&forum_id=2Reputation#50035839) |