The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/10/15 |
| Floppy haunting den party of the first part | 12/12/15 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 01/02/17 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 01/06/16 |
| Lake field | 01/06/16 |
| Lake field | 06/05/16 |
| bright thriller electric furnace base | 03/26/16 |
| hairless racy stock car | 01/02/17 |
| painfully honest stead cuckoldry | 10/25/18 |
| adventurous buff boiling water | 12/10/15 |
| bearded costumed son of senegal coffee pot | 12/10/15 |
| Alcoholic plaza | 12/10/15 |
| aphrodisiac opaque cruise ship | 12/10/15 |
| Swollen toaster | 12/15/15 |
| Ungodly center | 12/10/15 |
| curious green roommate | 12/10/15 |
| Exhilarant market crotch | 12/10/15 |
| big range sex offender | 12/11/15 |
| Citrine Native Mad Cow Disease | 12/12/15 |
| Sooty Really Tough Guy Gas Station | 12/16/15 |
| chestnut soul-stirring library psychic | 01/04/16 |
| Razzmatazz gold twinkling uncleanness ratface | 11/09/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/11/15 |
| pearly piazza | 12/11/15 |
| Sable hunting ground | 12/11/15 |
| big range sex offender | 12/11/15 |
| Cerise Newt | 12/12/15 |
| Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| Vermilion Deranged School | 11/10/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/12/15 |
| avocado pistol | 12/12/15 |
| stirring medicated cumskin | 12/12/15 |
| pale deep brunch kitty | 12/12/15 |
| Ruddy thirsty alpha | 12/15/15 |
| Angry wagecucks | 12/21/15 |
| Mischievous pontificating becky | 12/12/15 |
| insecure sanctuary yarmulke | 12/12/15 |
| Mind-boggling zombie-like police squad | 12/12/15 |
| mint national gaping | 12/12/15 |
| Disturbing red kitchen keepsake machete | 12/12/15 |
| laughsome therapy | 12/12/15 |
| curious green roommate | 12/15/15 |
| curious green roommate | 12/16/15 |
| Infuriating hospital toilet seat | 12/15/15 |
| saffron cerebral windowlicker | 12/15/15 |
| motley queen of the night | 12/15/15 |
| slimy round eye | 12/15/15 |
| Boyish Frisky Rigor Persian | 12/15/15 |
| Embarrassed To The Bone Poppy Stage Antidepressant Drug | 12/15/15 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/15/15 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/15/15 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/15/15 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/15/15 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 12/15/15 |
| carnelian turdskin | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| Rusted Stimulating Ladyboy Principal's Office | 12/17/16 |
| lemon swashbuckling faggotry | 05/18/16 |
| glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner | 08/12/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/09/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 11/09/16 |
| Insanely creepy contagious chad indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| hyperventilating mad-dog skullcap | 10/22/20 |
| Comical chest-beating friendly grandma | 12/15/15 |
| Heady organic girlfriend | 12/16/15 |
| Bistre scourge upon the earth | 12/16/15 |
| sick goal in life | 12/16/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 12/16/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 12/17/15 |
| supple magenta orchestra pit | 12/18/15 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 01/06/16 |
| Pea-brained narrow-minded location rigpig | 12/18/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 12/21/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 12/21/15 |
| Angry wagecucks | 12/21/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 12/30/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 12/30/15 |
| crawly roast beef | 01/04/16 |
| chestnut soul-stirring library psychic | 01/04/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| supple magenta orchestra pit | 01/05/16 |
| Titillating shrine skinny woman | 01/05/16 |
| unhinged ape | 01/05/16 |
| maroon electric bbw | 01/05/16 |
| ocher misunderstood church building | 01/05/16 |
| maroon electric bbw | 01/05/16 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 01/06/16 |
| maroon electric bbw | 01/06/16 |
| ocher misunderstood church building | 01/05/16 |
| glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner | 01/06/16 |
| Angry wagecucks | 01/07/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 01/08/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 01/08/16 |
| Angry wagecucks | 01/08/16 |
| supple magenta orchestra pit | 01/09/16 |
| Angry wagecucks | 01/10/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 01/18/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 01/19/16 |
| supple magenta orchestra pit | 01/21/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 01/25/16 |
| Vibrant bat-shit-crazy bawdyhouse | 01/25/16 |
| Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| Vibrant bat-shit-crazy bawdyhouse | 02/09/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 09/06/16 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 11/05/18 |
| 180 pungent lay personal credit line | 01/29/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 02/01/16 |
| Hairraiser brass parlour | 02/01/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 02/01/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 02/07/16 |
| Titillating shrine skinny woman | 02/09/16 |
| Galvanic charcoal old irish cottage | 02/09/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 02/20/16 |
| Chartreuse abode | 02/20/16 |
| lemon swashbuckling faggotry | 02/24/16 |
| clear stage elastic band | 02/24/16 |
| Pink Disrespectful Goyim | 02/27/16 |
| Infuriating hospital toilet seat | 03/09/16 |
| aqua rough-skinned people who are hurt generalized bond | 03/15/16 |
| Alcoholic plaza | 03/15/16 |
| saffron cerebral windowlicker | 03/16/16 |
| Burgundy odious shitlib business firm | 02/24/16 |
| Flesh spectacular tattoo cuck | 02/24/16 |
| saffron cerebral windowlicker | 07/21/16 |
| bull headed histrionic corn cake | 02/24/16 |
| Alcoholic plaza | 02/27/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/02/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/04/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/09/16 |
| Titillating shrine skinny woman | 03/09/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/15/16 |
| lemon swashbuckling faggotry | 03/15/16 |
| lavender hot site | 03/15/16 |
| Talented black woman | 03/15/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/16/16 |
| curious green roommate | 03/16/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 03/23/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/23/16 |
| Mind-boggling zombie-like police squad | 03/26/16 |
| Bisexual resort | 03/26/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/26/16 |
| carnelian turdskin | 03/28/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 03/28/16 |
| bearded costumed son of senegal coffee pot | 03/28/16 |
| glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner | 08/12/16 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 11/05/18 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/28/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/29/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 03/29/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 03/29/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/29/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/29/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/01/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/04/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 04/15/16 |
| Fantasy-prone out-of-control ceo | 04/15/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/19/16 |
| multi-colored seedy crackhouse | 04/20/16 |
| chrome preventive strike laser beams | 04/20/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/24/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/25/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/26/16 |
| primrose meetinghouse incel | 04/26/16 |
| High-end wine public bath dingle berry | 04/30/16 |
| trip dark tanning salon multi-billionaire | 05/01/16 |
| trip dark tanning salon multi-billionaire | 11/07/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/02/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 05/02/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/03/16 |
| brindle razzle-dazzle selfie dragon | 05/03/16 |
| arousing iridescent digit ratio philosopher-king | 05/03/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/04/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 05/04/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/05/16 |
| mint national gaping | 05/05/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 05/05/16 |
| Flesh spectacular tattoo cuck | 05/05/16 |
| avocado pistol | 05/18/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| lemon swashbuckling faggotry | 05/18/16 |
| avocado pistol | 05/18/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 05/29/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 06/20/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 06/29/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/14/16 |
| Jet jew | 07/15/16 |
| glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner | 07/15/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/17/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 07/17/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/21/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/22/16 |
| judgmental provocative jewess water buffalo | 07/22/16 |
| Passionate Trailer Park Codepig | 07/23/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/24/16 |
| Up-to-no-good house | 07/25/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 07/25/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 07/27/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 08/05/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 08/09/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 08/12/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 08/12/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 08/12/16 |
| Aggressive step-uncle's house idea he suggested | 08/12/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 08/30/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 08/30/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 09/06/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 09/13/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 09/14/16 |
| Mischievous pontificating becky | 09/14/16 |
| canary glittery weed whacker | 09/15/16 |
| copper macaca | 09/15/16 |
| Lake field | 09/15/16 |
| Beady-eyed gaped institution | 09/15/16 |
| indecent garrison | 09/15/16 |
| lilac flickering community account | 09/19/16 |
| lilac flickering community account | 09/19/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 09/27/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 09/24/16 |
| crawly roast beef | 09/27/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 09/27/16 |
| curious green roommate | 09/27/16 |
| Cracking bearded rehab gunner | 10/08/16 |
| carmine lascivious church filthpig | 07/29/24 |
| silver messiness hall | 09/28/16 |
| Mischievous pontificating becky | 09/28/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 09/28/16 |
| chrome preventive strike laser beams | 09/28/16 |
| Fantasy-prone out-of-control ceo | 09/28/16 |
| tan stag film trump supporter | 10/08/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 10/09/16 |
| Obsidian nowag heaven | 10/09/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 10/09/16 |
| exciting chapel knife | 10/09/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 10/10/16 |
| Up-to-no-good house | 10/30/16 |
| glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner | 11/01/16 |
| Beady-eyed gaped institution | 11/01/16 |
| Henna misanthropic hairy legs | 11/02/16 |
| slimy round eye | 11/02/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 11/07/16 |
| mewling big-titted genital piercing theater stage | 11/08/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 11/08/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/08/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 11/08/16 |
| Sinister Honey-headed Double Fault | 11/08/16 |
| abusive aromatic forum | 11/08/16 |
| Hairraiser brass parlour | 11/08/16 |
| lilac flickering community account | 11/08/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/08/16 |
| Massive peach feces | 11/09/16 |
| canary glittery weed whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Mustard bateful deer antler | 11/09/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed gaped institution | 11/09/16 |
| Massive peach feces | 11/09/16 |
| Up-to-no-good house | 11/09/16 |
| mint national gaping | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled immigrant | 12/03/16 |
| Vermilion Deranged School | 12/07/16 |
| Rusted Stimulating Ladyboy Principal's Office | 12/17/16 |
| Fragrant naked voyeur hominid | 10/11/24 |
| Vivacious yellow faggot firefighter | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse Depressive Theater | 11/09/16 |
| Purple giraffe | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous halford famous landscape painting | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled immigrant | 11/09/16 |
| glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner | 11/09/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/09/16 |
| avocado pistol | 11/09/16 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 11/09/16 |
| sapphire fanboi casino | 11/09/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/09/16 |
| Harsh pozpig | 11/09/16 |
| territorial karate | 11/09/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac opaque cruise ship | 11/09/16 |
| Pea-brained narrow-minded location rigpig | 11/10/16 |
| Vibrant bat-shit-crazy bawdyhouse | 11/10/16 |
| Lake field | 11/10/16 |
| concupiscible mahogany state | 11/10/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/10/16 |
| silver messiness hall | 11/10/16 |
| Chartreuse abode | 11/10/16 |
| lilac flickering community account | 11/14/16 |
| Azure appetizing potus | 11/14/16 |
| ultramarine pocket flask | 12/04/16 |
| Rusted Stimulating Ladyboy Principal's Office | 12/17/16 |
| Fragrant naked voyeur hominid | 10/11/24 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/25/16 |
| Indigo vigorous area wrinkle | 12/03/16 |
| exciting chapel knife | 12/04/16 |
| insane blood rage | 12/07/16 |
| Lake field | 12/07/16 |
| Indigo vigorous area wrinkle | 12/07/16 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 01/02/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/02/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 01/02/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/02/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 03/03/20 |
| Lake field | 01/02/17 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 01/16/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/20/17 |
| crawly roast beef | 01/20/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/23/17 |
| tan stag film trump supporter | 01/23/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/23/17 |
| Cowardly Razzle Sandwich | 01/23/17 |
| tan stag film trump supporter | 01/23/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/23/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/25/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 01/26/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 02/06/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 02/13/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 02/27/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 05/03/17 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/03/17 |
| dashing very tactful background story | 09/21/17 |
| Alcoholic plaza | 01/23/17 |
| Beady-eyed gaped institution | 02/27/17 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 03/22/17 |
| crawly roast beef | 04/17/17 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/08/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 06/20/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 08/10/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 10/15/17 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 10/15/17 |
| Aquamarine fluffy fat ankles locus | 10/15/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/06/17 |
| Rose home | 11/06/17 |
| Charismatic national security agency locale | 11/08/17 |
| house-broken office | 11/08/17 |
| free-loading address | 11/13/17 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 12/18/17 |
| Violet wonderful senate | 12/18/17 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 12/18/17 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 01/30/18 |
| Lake field | 06/01/18 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/18/18 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 07/19/18 |
| indecent garrison | 09/20/18 |
| crawly roast beef | 09/25/18 |
| bearded costumed son of senegal coffee pot | 10/06/18 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 10/06/18 |
| Lake field | 10/25/18 |
| copper macaca | 10/25/18 |
| Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe | 11/05/18 |
| Lake field | 11/05/18 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 11/05/18 |
| Lake field | 11/05/18 |
| crawly roast beef | 01/08/19 |
| self-centered pervert | 02/23/19 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 03/13/19 |
| Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe | 06/24/19 |
| yapping nursing home | 06/24/19 |
| crawly roast beef | 11/18/19 |
| Beady-eyed gaped institution | 02/12/20 |
| crawly roast beef | 02/12/20 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 03/24/20 |
| orange associate | 03/24/20 |
| Jet jew | 04/04/20 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 04/26/20 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 05/13/20 |
| Jet jew | 06/05/20 |
| amethyst whorehouse | 06/05/20 |
| Jet jew | 09/09/20 |
| Beady-eyed gaped institution | 09/09/20 |
| adventurous buff boiling water | 09/09/20 |
| Violent plum reading party lodge | 09/12/20 |
| Tripping legend station | 09/24/20 |
| yapping nursing home | 10/09/20 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 10/10/20 |
| Maniacal degenerate set | 10/22/20 |
| Learning disabled immigrant | 10/22/20 |
| hyperventilating mad-dog skullcap | 10/22/20 |
| hyperventilating mad-dog skullcap | 10/22/20 |
| Smoky pit travel guidebook | 03/23/22 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 10/27/20 |
| Topaz irradiated university stain | 10/27/20 |
| yapping nursing home | 10/30/20 |
| Fiercely-loyal main people theatre | 11/03/20 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/22/22 |
| White rambunctious box office candlestick maker | 03/23/22 |
| twinkling idiot | 03/23/22 |
| transparent spot mental disorder | 03/23/22 |
| crawly roast beef | 07/25/22 |
| adventurous buff boiling water | 07/25/22 |
| crawly roast beef | 10/23/22 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 11/16/22 |
| frum spruce dopamine puppy | 04/25/23 |
| avocado pistol | 04/25/23 |
| Tripping legend station | 04/29/23 |
| carmine lascivious church filthpig | 05/28/23 |
| crawly roast beef | 02/22/24 |
| Tripping legend station | 02/23/24 |
| crawly roast beef | 05/23/24 |
| crawly roast beef | 08/26/24 |
| Tripping legend station | 09/13/24 |
| adventurous buff boiling water | 09/13/24 |
| Tripping legend station | 10/18/24 |
| Fragrant naked voyeur hominid | 10/11/24 |
| crawly roast beef | 11/06/24 |
| mint national gaping | 03/04/25 |
| mint national gaping | 03/04/25 |
| indecent garrison | 03/04/25 |
| Fragrant naked voyeur hominid | 03/04/25 |
| amber hateful dysfunction mexican | 03/04/25 |
| outnumbered ticket booth | 03/05/25 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/07/25 |
| know-it-all property | 03/07/25 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/08/25 |
| bespoke parlor | 03/08/25 |
| crawly roast beef | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Floppy haunting den party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Lake field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Lake field another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: bright thriller electric furnace base 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: hairless racy stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: painfully honest stead cuckoldry "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: adventurous buff boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: bearded costumed son of senegal coffee pot 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Alcoholic plaza 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: aphrodisiac opaque cruise ship Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Swollen toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Ungodly center FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: curious green roommate Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Exhilarant market crotch Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: big range sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Citrine Native Mad Cow Disease Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Sooty Really Tough Guy Gas Station Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: chestnut soul-stirring library psychic Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Razzmatazz gold twinkling uncleanness ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: pearly piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Sable hunting ground 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: big range sex offender November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Cerise Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Vermilion Deranged School (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: avocado pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: stirring medicated cumskin lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: pale deep brunch kitty March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Ruddy thirsty alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Angry wagecucks 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Mischievous pontificating becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: insecure sanctuary yarmulke lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Mind-boggling zombie-like police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: mint national gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Disturbing red kitchen keepsake machete Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: laughsome therapy Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: curious green roommate OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: curious green roommate And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Infuriating hospital toilet seat 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: saffron cerebral windowlicker fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: motley queen of the night I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: slimy round eye 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Boyish Frisky Rigor Persian February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Embarrassed To The Bone Poppy Stage Antidepressant Drug You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: carnelian turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Rusted Stimulating Ladyboy Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: lemon swashbuckling faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Insanely creepy contagious chad indian lodge Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: hyperventilating mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Comical chest-beating friendly grandma This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Heady organic girlfriend 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Bistre scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: sick goal in life Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: crawly roast beef Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: crawly roast beef Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: supple magenta orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Pea-brained narrow-minded location rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: crawly roast beef Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: crawly roast beef "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Angry wagecucks 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: crawly roast beef "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: crawly roast beef One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: crawly roast beef This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: chestnut soul-stirring library psychic flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: supple magenta orchestra pit From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Titillating shrine skinny woman 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: unhinged ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: maroon electric bbw An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: ocher misunderstood church building 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: maroon electric bbw I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: maroon electric bbw Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: ocher misunderstood church building No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Angry wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: crawly roast beef “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Violet wonderful senate 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Angry wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: supple magenta orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Angry wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: crawly roast beef http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: crawly roast beef Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: supple magenta orchestra pit looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Vibrant bat-shit-crazy bawdyhouse 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#29677863) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: crawly roast beef It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: curious green roommate March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30070601) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: carnelian turdskin jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: bearded costumed son of senegal coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: crawly roast beef "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: crawly roast beef "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: silver messiness hall lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: silver messiness hall "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: crawly roast beef http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: crawly roast beef http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: crawly roast beef "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: silver messiness hall interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Fantasy-prone out-of-control ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: chrome preventive strike laser beams I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30310807) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: trip dark tanning salon multi-billionaire Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: trip dark tanning salon multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: crawly roast beef The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: crawly roast beef Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: mint national gaping Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30412976) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: avocado pistol This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: avocado pistol cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30583536) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: crawly roast beef Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: crawly roast beef http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Jet jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Violet wonderful senate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: crawly roast beef http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: judgmental provocative jewess water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Passionate Trailer Park Codepig Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Up-to-no-good house Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: silver messiness hall amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: crawly roast beef http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Violet wonderful senate holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Aggressive step-uncle's house idea he suggested LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Violet wonderful senate 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: crawly roast beef Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: silver messiness hall ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Mischievous pontificating becky Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: canary glittery weed whacker September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: copper macaca September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Lake field god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Beady-eyed gaped institution XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: indecent garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: lilac flickering community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: lilac flickering community account The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: crawly roast beef http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: curious green roommate This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Cracking bearded rehab gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: carmine lascivious church filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: silver messiness hall http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Mischievous pontificating becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: chrome preventive strike laser beams This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Fantasy-prone out-of-control ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: tan stag film trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Obsidian nowag heaven Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: exciting chapel knife half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: silver messiness hall nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Up-to-no-good house close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Beady-eyed gaped institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Henna misanthropic hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: slimy round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: silver messiness hall prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: mewling big-titted genital piercing theater stage You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: silver messiness hall true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: silver messiness hall ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Sinister Honey-headed Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: abusive aromatic forum Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Hairraiser brass parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: lilac flickering community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Massive peach feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: canary glittery weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Mustard bateful deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Beady-eyed gaped institution GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Massive peach feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Up-to-no-good house it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: mint national gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Learning disabled immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Vermilion Deranged School (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Rusted Stimulating Ladyboy Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Fragrant naked voyeur hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Vivacious yellow faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Diverse Depressive Theater Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Purple giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: marvelous halford famous landscape painting 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Learning disabled immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: glassy cruel-hearted marketing idea corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: avocado pistol this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: sapphire fanboi casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Harsh pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: territorial karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: aphrodisiac opaque cruise ship you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Pea-brained narrow-minded location rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Vibrant bat-shit-crazy bawdyhouse Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Lake field bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: concupiscible mahogany state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: silver messiness hall ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Chartreuse abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: lilac flickering community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Azure appetizing potus They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: ultramarine pocket flask Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Rusted Stimulating Ladyboy Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Fragrant naked voyeur hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Indigo vigorous area wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: exciting chapel knife GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: insane blood rage https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Lake field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Indigo vigorous area wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Lake field truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: tan stag film trump supporter TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Cowardly Razzle Sandwich I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: tan stag film trump supporter it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: dashing very tactful background story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Alcoholic plaza this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Beady-eyed gaped institution One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: crawly roast beef https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Aquamarine fluffy fat ankles locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Rose home credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Charismatic national security agency locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: house-broken office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: free-loading address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Violet wonderful senate Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Lake field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: crawly roast beef https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: indecent garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: crawly roast beef The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: bearded costumed son of senegal coffee pot It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Lake field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: copper macaca Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Lake field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Lake field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: crawly roast beef What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: self-centered pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Excitant Turquoise School Cafeteria Sweet Tailpipe There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: yapping nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Beady-eyed gaped institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: orange associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Jet jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Jet jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: amethyst whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Jet jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Beady-eyed gaped institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: adventurous buff boiling water Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Violent plum reading party lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Tripping legend station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: yapping nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Maniacal degenerate set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Learning disabled immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: hyperventilating mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: hyperventilating mad-dog skullcap https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Smoky pit travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Topaz irradiated university stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: yapping nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal main people theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: White rambunctious box office candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: twinkling idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: transparent spot mental disorder 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: adventurous buff boiling water A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: frum spruce dopamine puppy https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: avocado pistol why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Tripping legend station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: carmine lascivious church filthpig FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Tripping legend station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: crawly roast beef https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Tripping legend station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: adventurous buff boiling water One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Tripping legend station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Fragrant naked voyeur hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: mint national gaping 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: mint national gaping https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: indecent garrison Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Fragrant naked voyeur hominid The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: amber hateful dysfunction mexican He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: outnumbered ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: crawly roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: know-it-all property 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: crawly roast beef "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: bespoke parlor Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: crawly roast beef Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2betting#49679495) |