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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela
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Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146
https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46 |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM Author: cracking business firm legend get a life you fucking dork (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567289) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund get off this bort you closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567303) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: cracking business firm legend you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567306) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund you are literally a closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567363) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM Author: cracking business firm legend you literally are jewishly projecting yet again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568632) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM Author: territorial center clown i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567168) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM Author: painfully honest vibrant pit milk LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567271) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate It's fraud they need to pay out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567336) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: insecure newt space The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567449) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM Author: Appetizing feces scourge upon the earth The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful
You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy" |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: insecure newt space Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567477) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567484) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: insecure newt space The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.
Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: Appetizing feces scourge upon the earth https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567497) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: Appetizing feces scourge upon the earth The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567492) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM Author: Turquoise Field seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567286) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund (Peter Thiel) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567304) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: beta public bath yes its not like orange man said we run it now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567305) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM Author: fragrant organic girlfriend pervert I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567316) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567341) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567356) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: insecure newt space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567479) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM Author: Disrespectful carmine range party of the first part cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567713) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM Author: Disturbing embarrassed to the bone famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568504) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM Author: adulterous nursing home crotch IRL Topicality moment (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567307) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM Author: salmon ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567330) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: thriller underhanded patrolman companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567334) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567348) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM Author: thriller underhanded patrolman (guy who no longer has $1,600) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567360) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM Author: Turquoise Field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567396) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM Author: multi-colored cumskin cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568389) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: buck-toothed wine private investor senate It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567517) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM Author: Appetizing feces scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567526) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567542) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Appetizing feces scourge upon the earth Obvious yes
But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM Author: insecure newt space This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?
The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."
Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: Turquoise Field cr, not a close call imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567451) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567465) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: insecure newt space The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)
The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: Appetizing feces scourge upon the earth Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567493) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567498) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM Author: territorial center clown this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.
the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567514) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: Lascivious useless karate So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567489) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM Author: Infuriating at-the-ready rigpig office are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567539) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM Author: Brass corner trust fund the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567682) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: Impressive lodge If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.
The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM Author: Ruddy church building hairy legs His house was invaded (briefly) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567813) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM Author: Ruddy church building hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49567795) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: insane nowag cuckoldry I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
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Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM Author: Ruddy church building hairy legs I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568381) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM Author: Brass corner trust fund Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game
https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46 |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM Author: Turquoise Field now this is just a straight up scam (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568452) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM Author: Lascivious useless karate Is Polymarket still fucking over its users? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568453) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM Author: salmon ceo Just made 60,000 dollars (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568707) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM Author: Ruddy church building hairy legs ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568727) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM Author: territorial center clown i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49568730) |
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Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM Author: Ruddy church building hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2betting#49579920) |