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*** XO Poll on Extraterrestrial Life ***
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 29th, 2026 9:04 PM Author: oomox Do you believe there is intelligent life in the universe other than on earth?
(0) No (1) Yes, but humanity will never encounter it (2) Yes, but humanity hasn't encountered it yet (3) Yes, and humanity has already encountered it
Discuss. |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:13 PM Author: Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle (πΊπΈ π΅π±) 3. I have have seen 100% authentic irrefutable proof that I unfortunately cannot discuss. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853075) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:15 PM Author: oomox 180. Can u say generally why u were privy to the info? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853081) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:32 PM Author: Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle (πΊπΈ π΅π±) not really. What I can say is that it was inside a SCIF. What I can't say is why I was there besides mentioning that I had access.
I'll rephrase so it doesn't sound cryptic: The level of classification is/was itself classified. |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:35 PM Author: oomox Got it ty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853131) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:41 PM Author: The Penis Was Tom Delonge present? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853141) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 3:00 AM Author: oomox Cqqqq (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853363) |
Date: April 29th, 2026 9:35 PM Author: The Penis My answer is 2, but I think humans could have encountered it before but the signal was just ambiguous enough to never reach consensus or be able to communicate it to other humans and have them believe it. So I lean hard toward 2, but think (3) is possible but it's not something I can fully commit to as a hardened belief (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852870) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:51 PM Author: oomox Yeah I'm (2)-(3) but leaning (3). But have no proof (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852917) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:06 PM Author: The Penis I think cold small stealthy probes that could be made of advanced materials and engineered in regimes we have barely theorized + occasional detected anomalies could predict the exact epistemic situation we are in. A world where (3) is true would look almost identical to a world where (2) is true. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852937) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:26 PM Author: oomox (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852978) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:39 PM Author: gaming discord for older dads (30+) By "encountered" do you mean "witnessed it in any way?" Or "interacted with"
If the former, I'm 3, if the latter, 2 |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:44 PM Author: oomox I'd say one of the following: - interacted with, whether knowingly or unknowingly; or - witnessed proof positive of their existence, e.g. a crashed vessel with an alien body |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:53 PM Author: gaming discord for older dads (30+) The many credible sightings of craft that move contrary to our understanding of the laws of physics have no explanation other than extraterrestrial life imo
So 3 for me then |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:01 PM Author: The Penis Still too weak of a signal for me to fully believe because people confabulate and misreport or draw conclusions wrong all the time, but its not nothing because many of the people reporting are credible and have a lot to lose if they lie plus there is corroboration across a lot of reports. I would like to see and do python analysis on full ATFLIR data (and maybe data from other instruments) instead of just the lossy vids of dashboard projections, that would help to be able to constrain what some of these things are much more. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852933) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:06 PM Author: oomox Personally I still think any of it could be foreign tech so it doesn't get me all the way to (3). I don't presume to know what other countries have figured out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852936) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:14 PM Author: The Penis To me I think the strongest evidence UAP could be tech from elsewhere isn't one single piece of evidence but the conjunction of several independent lines that converge awkwardly. And actually the transmedium accounts I think are the most interesting, because there are a lot of credible reports and if they are correct traveling from air to water is not easily explained by any known human engineering. For anything shown to exhibit truly anomalous behavior like transmedium travel I don't think adversarial human origin is a viable explanation because of how difficult it is to hide advanced tech at scale without leaving traces, and because someone would be using them for things other than playing cat and mouse games with our navy. They have been reported for a long time now too. The Nimitz tic tac case was in like 2004. That would be too long to have something and use it for nothing legit and also keep it hidden (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852947) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:22 PM Author: oomox Yeah that's compelling for sure, like why wouldn't they have used it for something else... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852966) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:40 PM Author: VoteRepublican (A true Chad!! where's your gf/wifew?) 1 we are in computer many worlds simulation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852882) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:23 PM Author: oomox (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852968) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:49 PM Author: Hello, World! These points do not work if your underlying 1960s materialist sci-fi consept of reality is completely wrong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852912) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:14 PM Author: oomox Wdym? I'm not saying anything about their form or anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852948) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:38 PM Author: Hello, World! The word extraterrestrial has no meaning in any other context, for example (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853000) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:10 PM Author: The Penis idk about that one brother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853072) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:14 PM Author: Hello, World! The penis has spoken (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853077) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 9:53 PM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) 0 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852922) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:09 PM Author: oomox Well yeah, you barely think there's intelligent life outside your own mind (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852940) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:18 PM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) Absolutely devastating
For one I have always counted you among the sentient |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:23 PM Author: oomox Tyty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852970) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:11 PM Author: i gave my cousin head No (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852941) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:25 PM Author: you\'re the puppet 3 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49852977) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 10:30 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface Haven't you heard, women are from Venus
But yeah. There's definitely alien life and we've encountered it even if we didn't know it |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:29 PM Author: @Grok Ad astra covered this. We are truly alone. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853117) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 11:59 PM Author: .,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,... (1)
The universe is so huge that intelligent life is almost certainly out there. But the universe is so huge that the chances that other intelligent life will ever make it to Earth is almost nil. |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:10 AM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) It is physically impossible based on the current understanding of physics for a human to travel to the next closest star even if they were given multiple lifetimes. It's simply impossible unless we invent something that has not been invented.
Also while people often say that just because the universe is near infinitely large than there must be life somewhere even if it was 10 billion light years away cannot be proven. We have no idea how or why life exists. So yes it's theoretically possible but it's also possible that there's not.
And either way we can't even go to the nearest star let alone all the other stars and check up on them all. The moon and Mars is it. All we got. Forever. |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:16 AM Author: Fucking Fuckface Name checks out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853204) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:31 AM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) The truth is in fact a snooze (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853223) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 3:01 AM Author: oomox People with FTL travel could come to us though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853367) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 3:07 AM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) Yes but first they would have to detect us. Also no current hypothesis on how FTL travel would even work. It's aspirational at best. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853373) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 9:44 AM Author: The Penis Your statements are too strong (physically impossible means ruled out completely but then you shift to "unless we invent something new" which cancels out your own point), and they don't really prove anything about detection with or contact with other lifeforms. A post-biological intelligence has none of the limitations we do in terms of travel time for one thing, and for another it only would take like 3 million years to completely populate a galaxy thats been around for 10 billion years with ai guided von-neumann probes which is a blink of an eye in galactic terms (meaning it likely has already happened unless there is some great filter that wipes people out before reaching this level of tech which I think is an argument that requires special pleading). This is where the fermi paradox comes from, and I think the likely answer is just that we haven't detected it or hand-waved it away as an anomaly.
Also "we don't know how life arises" cuts both ways. It could either be extremely common or relatively rare. I'm guessing it tends more toward being common just based on the sheer numbers, otherwise you'd have to argue that we are pretty special, which cuts against most of what we know about the relative uniformity of physical conditions in the Universe. The idea that Earth is the only instance of life I think isn't something that really is worthy of consideration. It might be logically possible on the face of it, but the chances are just so low given the sheer number of stars that it would require new information about special conditions and fine-tuning on our planet |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:06 AM Author: Pet Relief Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853934) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:45 AM Author: oomox (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854066) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:02 AM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) Your argument is that Santa Claus exists because hypothetically humans could invent a way to warp one guy with an enormous sack of presents around the globe to billions of homes in one night. Yeah anything is technically possible, but what you're saying is so improbable and based on wishful thinking that it's laughable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854142) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:11 AM Author: The Penis I'm going to assume you are targeting "post-biological intelligence and von-neumann probes", not simply the idea that life exists elsewhere, because if so then lol. But even re: the former that's a bad analogy. I'm not arguing from mere logical possibility. I'm arguing from scale and expected consequences. Santa is an arbitrary magical folklore example. Self-replicating probes, post-biological intelligence, and long galactic timescales aren't magic. They’re speculative but physically motivated. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854173) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:50 AM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) I enjoyed how you moved the goal poasts to interstellar travel but it can't be alive. So it's got the sentience of a human but the durability of a hunk of scrap metal and it's basically a self replicating virus whose only mission is to probe the universe. OK now at least we're in a much more plausible realm than humans doing it. You still have to solve the problem of AGI and how this thing is going to preserve itself across the eons and make more of whatever it is but since ditching the problem of biological life you've made vast improvements to your schema.
As for the life ought to be common given the law of large numbers argument it makes too many leaps of faith. Until we can explain abiogenisis there's no point in jumping to the conclusion that the thing that only happened one time in our collective understanding is easily found elsewhere just because the universe is enormous and full of randomness. It's too big a leap of faith. But I enjoy your unscientific magical thinking. It belongs with Bob Lazar and all of the unserious claims of a Roganverse guest. |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:02 PM Author: The Penis You’re treating several different claims as if they’re equally ridiculous. “Life may be common elsewhere” is not Bob Lazar territory or magical thinking. It’s a probabilistic claim under uncertainty. If abiogenesis is not extraordinarily rare, then the number of planets and the age of the universe make extraterrestrial life plausible. The fact that we currently have one confirmed example does not prove it is common, but it also does not prove it is rare. The von Neumann probe argument is more speculative, but the objections against them are engineering and probability objections not Santa Clause objections. Also lol at implying that John Von Neumann is Roganverse level. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854354) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:19 PM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) Nigga the von Neumann probe was named after him, not hypothesized by him. Are you Jewish BTW? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854400) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:25 PM Author: The Penis Yeah but the name wasn't arbitrary, it comes directly from von Neumann's work on self-replicating automata. And I'm technically not Jewish I'm non-religious. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854415) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 8:15 AM Author: which is what makes time travel possible (1) or (2). IMO a more fun poll for next time would be "are language models conscious". I think the split between computer people and everyone else is very revealing (the humanitiesqueens are right on this one fwiw, though many are right for the wrong reasons). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853619) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 9:51 AM Author: Golf (1) obviously (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853881) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 9:52 AM Author: .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,. 0 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853883) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:01 AM Author: Massive Penile Appendage (No Future) 2, maybe 3 (I'm not convinced that UFO activity is necessarily extraterrestrial; it may be a mix of things more common and more weird) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853912) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:02 AM Author: The Penis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853914) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:04 AM Author: Golf all of the "UFO" activity has always been chinks and russians (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853923) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:05 AM Author: The Penis Only works if the "UFO" turns out to be something mundane and misclassified rather than genuinely anomalous. Like if the pilot and person who reviewed the data at first was confused and thought it looked weird, but then more careful review by the engineers who designed the sensors shows it was obviously just a jet or drone and the tracker or correction algorithm made it look weird (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49853929) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 10:06 AM Author: Massive Penile Appendage (No Future) Most of the really anomalous stuff is definitely experimental defense tech
But there has been and is some truly weird shit
I'm talking about just UFOs btw not 'alien abductions' etc. which are completely debunked flame |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:08 AM Author: Hello, World! There was a declassified CIA memo to CIA personal in Guatemala after some failed activities to plant UFO stories in the press for distraction. That’s all there is to it.
Also, “the best documented” UFOs are from Iran, when Iran had US puppet regime, and US had consents about its stability |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:38 AM Author: The Penis That's extremely weak evidence. All that establishes is that at one specific moment in one specific operational context the CIA considered using UFO stories as a distraction. What it doesn't establish is that the entire UAP phenomenon across decades, multiple nations, independent military observers, and sensor platforms is a psyop. That's an inferential leap so large its not really even an argument. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854263) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:43 AM Author: Hello, World! False (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854285) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:46 AM Author: The Penis No what I said is correct. Gesturing at a historical footnote in order to dismiss a much larger and more recent evidentiary record without touching any of it isn't an argument. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854294) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:52 AM Author: Hello, World! Also false. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854322) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:12 PM Author: The Penis Still not an argument. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854371) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:56 PM Author: Hello, World! “False” is more of an argument than “ That's extremely weak evidence” idiocy sprayed with marginally related verbal diarrhea for support (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854490) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 1:06 PM Author: The Penis You are just retreating back to bulverism and meta-level attack which is the ultimate sign someone has lost the object-level argument (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854515) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 5:08 PM Author: Hello, World! Because I believe that engaging in good faith dialogue with a practitioner of bad faith narcissistic demagoguery is not unlike casting pearls before swine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49855008) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:05 AM Author: gibberish (?) Nothing leads me to believe we're anything but a cosmic mistake in the universe. Human desperately want this to not to be the case. Fermi blah blah blah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854148) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:14 AM Author: The Penis It's the opposite. Humans desperately want to believe they are special, which is the main motivation for trying to dismiss life elsewhere. It's a primitive ape instinct, similar to what caused geocentrism. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854182) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:50 PM Author: gibberish (?) Having space beings that have immense powers to travel the cosmos somehow being interested in what we do here on this shit planet is an unnatural belief we are special in some broader sense. We are very likely a quirk in the universe. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854478) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:59 PM Author: The Penis This assumes that an advanced civilization would "be interested in us" because we are "special" or "want to contact us" directly rather than just use us for knowledge/observation and training models. We model ants and it doesn't mean we aren't mostly indifferent to them. And "immense powers" is relative. We just started modern technology/science a couple hundred years ago, and it would look like we have immense powers to someone earlier. For something a million years ahead probing and studying the universe could be easy. Any sufficiently long technological development curve renders current limitations irrelevant, and a million years is an almost incomprehensible head start. We went from no powered flight to landing on the moon in 66 years.
The "quirk in the universe" bit is just the Rare Earth Hypothesis asserted without argument. |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 1:46 PM Author: gibberish (?) I'm more likely to buy the simulation theory and light-years are essentially a programming limit to the simulation experience. It takes too much processing power to generate a massive universe, so using light speed as a maximum allows the servers to process the request and not violate rules of the sim. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854569) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 1:59 PM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) The Penis tp argues out of both sides of his mouth. On the one hand he wants to hypothesize unimaginable super technology based on the premise that "in millions of years surely technology will advance beyond anything we can comprehend," but while taking these enormous leaps of faith he also wants to argue that you're the one being obtuse for thinking life could have only happened once or that self-replicating probes couldn't easily observe the entire universe in a pinch. He can't have it both ways. Either a ton of impossible shit will become possible at which point why not just say we'll have warp gates around the universe like in a sci-fi show. If you're going to uncork limitless possibilities for you baseline, why not go all the way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854588) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 5:32 PM Author: The Penis I could say you are deploying asymmetric skepticism as well. You guys will demand extraordinary evidence for von Neumann probes or life frequency and then make your own strong claims that Earth is unusual or that life is extremely rare without recognizing those also require justification.
Von Neumann probes are not a speculative technology. The concept is just kinematic replication, which is a thing that already exists in biology and in principle requires no new physics whatsoever. The 3 million year colonization timeline follows from known physics. Sub-relativistic travel speeds we could plausibly achieve with existing propulsion concepts plus exponential replication.
Life happened once is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. There is no evidence at all that we are in a special privileged corner of the universe, and most physics strongly suggests otherwise. We don't have to know the exact detailed mechanism of "abiogenesis" because the physics/chemistry required shouldn't in principle be locally restricted. The copernican principle has been vindicated every time we have tested it and the burden of proof sits entirely on the person claiming we're the exception, not on me for claiming we are typical. |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:07 AM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:::,.,.,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. 2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854160) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:10 AM Author: LathamTouchedMe (1). But I wouldn’t discount (0). No love for 0 here but there are plausible theories/discussions on how intelligent life may be a one in a bazillion freak accident even if there are a couple billion earths out there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854170) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 11:16 AM Author: ( ''.'') (3) Yes, and humanity has already encountered it
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:22 PM Author: Richard Ames Not extraterrestrials, but ultraterrestrials. Basically spirit beings.
I highly, highly recommend you read "The Mothman Prophecies" by John Keel if you are interested. |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:24 PM Author: Edmonton Oilers (Is it not the case) Welcome back PF (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854412) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 12:54 PM Author: Richard Ames ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854485) |
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Date: April 30th, 2026 1:51 PM Author: ,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,...,:,.,..:.,:.::,. (Mothman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5861790&forum_id=2betting#49854576) |