still time to get out of the stock market
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Poast new message in this thread
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Date: July 3rd, 2015 3:40 PM Author: Aqua forum
That is the essence of a blank bump, is it not?
I've been very wrong before, but I think it is important to understand that there are some storm clouds gathering.
Europe
The Chinese situation has not been completely contained
Rates in the US will rise within a year
An election is coming
A large amount of junk corporate debt is in the markets
Puerto Rico is having difficulties
There are also cracks showing in the tech bubble
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28252615)
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Date: July 4th, 2015 2:38 PM Author: Motley lake black woman deer antler
yeah, breh, 'tis the essence of the blank bump; just wanted to confirm as i didn't necessarily expect you to be doomsaying.
what will be your strategy if there is an apparent correction? dollar-cast average into it or try to time the bottom?
right now i'm at about 15% cash.
picked up a couple hundred of this recently which i thought you'd like: NGHCO (small insurer's 7.5% preferred)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28257239) |
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Date: July 4th, 2015 2:43 PM Author: Aqua forum
Nice buy brother - I will be following this company. Thanks for the heads up on this.
If preferred is your game - take a look at CBB-B - interesting things going on with the company monitizing it's cyrusone stake and it make take the Preferred in at par
As for strategy: I'm about 35% in cash right now. Dollar cost average into positions I already hold, and then establish positions in high quality companies when they come down from higher multiples.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28257252) |
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Date: July 4th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Motley lake black woman deer antler
sure, breh. i will look at CBB-B for my next preferred position. are there any preferreds of regional banks that you are into/recommend? what's your endgame for the common stock of small regionals that you recommended in the past (eg ESBK?)besides collect the dividends? is your angle that some of these banks will be bought out?
also, looking back at some of your past picks, i see that GWRU is way down from where it was. time to buy or add to that position?
maybe i'm lazy, but i just want to dive into US index funds if there's a correction. outside of my 401 all of my index fund holdings are foreign issues. (i mistakenly thought i was too late to the party to buy up US indexes in '11-'12).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28257388)
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Date: July 3rd, 2015 3:44 PM Author: Aqua forum
Also no need to be ultra pessimistic - why not take some money off of the table? My investment portfolio, like yours I'm sure, has gone up a lot in the past 4 years.
At prices investors are purchasing the market indexes at, there is a low earnings yield and the possibility of sub par returns over a longer period.
The time now is to play defense - why not sit back and buy dirt cheap stocks like small banks, companies with no debt and big oils/hold a lot of % as cash (I'm at 35%, may go up to 50%)?
I'm not saying try to time the market, but cash is the single best type of insurance you can have in situations like this.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28252633)
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Date: July 3rd, 2015 5:11 PM Author: Aqua forum
true, but it will happen in time
Lots of debt has been taken out
We need oil to increase in price to drive inflation and prevent deflation
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28252963) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2015 5:39 PM Author: laughsome ratface theater stage
*never
We will never have materially higher rates or inflation. It would bankrupt the govt and the fed won't let that happen.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28253100) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2015 5:20 PM Author: Aqua forum
So am I friend, but you fail to appreciate the potential to purchase extremely high quality companies at panic selling prices - that is an opportunity that cash allows you to accomplish
I'm not saying sell everything Ike your hair is on fire - but be selective in what you own and why you own it
But if you have an index you need to be aware that if you combine a bucket of diamonds with a bucket of shit, your gonna have a bucket of shit mixed in with diamonds - take some time to appreciate just how high these index funded bids have pushed up certain stocks, you have large large companies like proctor and gamble and jnj with paltry yields - they won't really be able to hit it out of the park on the equity appreciation front which means you own them for their dividends and in that case are at huge risk when rates rise
Look at a lot of the ETF's for sale - income focused ones like dividend and REIT and utility companies yield fucking nothing only a coupe percent despite at trading in mid to high teens
Simultaneously you have large cap sectors like telecom and integrated oil sellinh for bargains
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28252997)
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Date: July 3rd, 2015 5:37 PM Author: Aqua forum
So the big risk reits right now has to do with rates, especially triple net - which trade in a similar manner to bonds - so when rates go up they get killed
Right now I would be wary of real estate from an absolute return perspective with the qualifier that several high quality edits exist and can be purchased at reasonable prices relative to their long. Term earnings potential and relative sub market dynamics
Right now I like large cap telecom and I also like mega cap oil, some isolated industrial companies and small banks/financial institutions - but I also like cash as much if not more today.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28253094) |
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Date: July 4th, 2015 2:57 PM Author: Aqua forum
That's not going to happen man. Staying in the Euro will lead to more misery and taxpayer subsidization of Greek behavior. Eventually the Eurozone will buckle.
Where's the economy of these places in 10 years? Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, France all have HUGE youth unemployment problems. 20~50% in certain areas. Eurozone unemployment is at 11% right now.
The political will is going to swing eurosceptic and right - Smaller countries leaving the Euro will help both increase the strength of the Euro (should it remain) and help the eurozone in general. A few extra currencies floating around will help commerce, not hinder it in my opinion
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28257323) |
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Date: July 5th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: puce erotic native
aww yea.. so glad I cashed out last week.
this will be the best buying opportunity since the 2009 crash
I hope everyone is in BIGCASH
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28261833) |
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Date: July 5th, 2015 7:44 PM Author: Aqua forum
Supermajor integrated oil
some big pharm companies
add more to certain positions I have
honestly though, I'm content with what I have going. I trimmed all my marginal positions and am left with a core of 8 or so high quality companies in my portfolio that are either debt free or gigantic or 100% prime.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28263835) |
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Date: July 5th, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Aqua forum
I don't trade on margin - I mean "marginal" as in companies that I was involved in for a variety of random reasons, like cigar butt situations or shares of companies I got for free when I played a special situation on a spinout etc.
Companies that were cheap that I only half bought when they were cheap, so I was left with a 2~3% position in a company that would never really move the needle.
I have never traded on margin in my life - I don't believe in it.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28263860) |
Date: July 5th, 2015 11:18 PM Author: Razzmatazz Becky Persian
Should I sell first thing tomorrow morning and then re-buy?
Anyone else buying Apple, Disney, Google, Berkshire tomorrow?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28265247) |
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Date: July 7th, 2015 7:26 AM Author: puce erotic native
still time to get out....
the US did the right thing by releasing the IMF report clearly stating Greece needs a 30% debt reduction to have any hope.
It's hard to argue simple math (although this is Greece), and Germany isn't going to budge,
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28273961) |
Date: July 8th, 2015 11:27 PM Author: puce erotic native
hmm... dow down another 262. nyse shut down for hours
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28287762)
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Date: July 14th, 2015 1:56 AM Author: Swashbuckling area
Commentary the likes of this can be toxic, brother. I would avoid goading people who aren’t actively trading and who should be investing for the long-run into shifting their positions in angst – it is more than likely to encourage decisions which are ultimately destructive. Whatever the market does within the next several weeks – or months – or years – most of the members of the bort are far better off investing broadly in the market and letting the market do what it will in the short-term. By the time they need their money, they’ll have benefited from whatever returns they received over time.
To offer somewhat sensational statements like this – even if only implicitly so – is more likely, if anything, to encourage now anxious bort members without an understanding of the market to watch for downticks and to trade into dips.
If your intention is to prove yourself right, so be it, but to dress it in statements as “still time to get out of the stock market” does not seem constructive for the bort, the hubris aside.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28324537) |
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Date: July 27th, 2015 8:50 AM Author: puce erotic native
dow down from 18,300... now to 17500... futures down another 150.
breaching the 200 day average
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28419980) |
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Date: August 12th, 2015 12:28 PM Author: Brass Base Coffee Pot
Protip: avoiding declines is more important than capturing 100% of gains in getting good long term returns.
Call it what you want . . . portfolio "rebalancing," "timing" the market etc but EVERYONE earlier this summer was saying that the market was due for a correction and there was no way it was going to continue gaining like it had. Also, anyone could observe the high volatility from greece, china, etc even before this correction hit full swing.
When the market is volatile, at an all time high, and not showing much chance of a breakout to hit new highs, it's time to get out for a bit. Worst that happens is that you miss a few months of gains.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28534529) |
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Date: August 24th, 2015 1:04 AM Author: Marvelous Deranged Office
"worry about this when your 65 and taking money out for retirement."
Jesus fucking Christ.
I hope I don't have to work that long.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28613027) |
Date: July 27th, 2015 8:21 AM Author: puce erotic native
remember history:
Shanghai exchange from booming to ZERO.....
still time brothers
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28419929) |
Date: August 22nd, 2015 1:25 AM Author: puce erotic native
so glad everyone listened to advice ITT and got out
buying op coming... check back in 3-5 weeks
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28601614) |
Date: August 23rd, 2015 11:32 PM Author: puce erotic native
The black swan cometh. Futures down big time. Fma. Not funny anymore.
10 sigma event
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28612263)
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Date: August 29th, 2015 10:05 AM Author: puce erotic native
Biggest Weekly movement in 70 years
aww yea, back for the attack.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28648361) |
Date: September 3rd, 2015 9:13 PM Author: puce erotic native
2nd chance.. still time to get out
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28684383) |
Date: September 4th, 2015 12:26 PM Author: puce erotic native
putting buy orders in ready for a 15% correction
this is going to get UGLLLYYYY
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28688100) |
Date: September 19th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: puce erotic native
2nd wave... here it comes
DOW from 18.2k now to 16.3k.... gonna retest lows... brace yourself next few weeks
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28793331) |
Date: September 19th, 2015 8:03 PM Author: puce erotic native
still time before the real pain
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28794361) |
Date: October 9th, 2015 11:17 PM Author: submissive senate
?
stocks are still above 17K on the dow.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#28937923) |
Date: October 31st, 2015 7:26 PM Author: puce erotic native
cop dat stem
http://www.quantmod.com/gallery/
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#29082565)
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:31 PM Author: puce erotic native
1st rate hike.. lookin good.
no new highs all year. if market breaks new highs, 2016 will rock
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#29396304) |
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Date: December 19th, 2015 10:52 AM Author: puce erotic native
failed to make new highs.. longs got taken down in Friday's action.
if 12/14 low gets taken out, expect retest of crazy august action. the fed and aapl certainly aren't helping
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2925849&forum_id=2#29413807) |
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