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Charles XII, how MAF are you about the midterm election?
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:02 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217693) |
Date: November 12th, 2018 4:06 PM Author: Opaque church tank I'm not, really. Things went better than I thought they would. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217714) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:08 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple Dems win around 40 House seats, GOP only gains 2 Senate seats despite the best Senate map imaginable, all in the backdrop of a booming economy and no foreign policy crisis. LJL. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217726) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:20 PM Author: Opaque church tank So we gained in the Senate, when just a few months ago there was about a 30% chance we'd straight-up LOSE the Senate?
Nope, I'm feeling pretty good. |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:24 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple No; Nate Silver never had Dems at above a 20% chance of winning the Senate. The GOP underperformed; they should have won AZ, MT, WV. +2 is terrible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217847) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM Author: Gaped Magical Incel LOL at WV. Manchin is not a typical Dem candidate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217869) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:31 PM Author: racy twinkling regret It was around 30 percent until the end of September for all three of his models. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217912) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:39 PM Author: Opaque church tank I was going off of PredictIt, but even if you're using 538, the GOP overperformed, as he gave them an average gain of only half a seat. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217964) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:45 PM Author: Arousing circlehead I still fail to see how it's a great victory for GOP. It's not like the GOP won any blue states in the senate and they only won one purple state (Florida). Democrats won a lot of definite red states (WV, MT, OH) and a lot of purple states (MN, WI, MI, AZ, NV, ME). They have them locked in for 6 more years and can go on offense next cycle when states like ME, CO, AZ will be up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218010) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 5:00 PM Author: Opaque church tank I didn't say "a great victory." I said things went better than I thought they would. I thought we'd get killed, honestly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218109) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:43 PM Author: Cruel-hearted Pit Roommate MT, WV? Yfwgi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217987) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:24 PM Author: iridescent jewess casino that pumo and his alts have been spamming this all week (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217849) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM Author: glittery at-the-ready tanning salon faggotry if shitlibs winning one half of one third of our govt is what it takes to get them out of the shadows and show america their TRUE agenda I think its a good silver lining. Its not like trump was passing anything in the gop congress and probably better off in the long run that he retired a lot of the cucks. libs are also great at shooting themselves in the foot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217872) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:44 PM Author: marvelous hospital It's literally JJC. lol at his sad life. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218000) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM Author: angry avocado ticket booth skinny woman What are Trumps re-elect odds right now in your estimation? And related to that, what's your handicapping of the Dem field of potential opponents? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217871) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:40 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple I think Trump will lose re-election.
1. Economy will be weaker in 2020 than it is now. We are overheating; the current growth trajectory is not sustainable, and the Fed will continue raising rates to kill inflation. And the tariffs will hammer the economy and raise prices.
2. Dems will nominate a minority, so minority and youth turnout in 2020 will be extremely high. Look at how pumped up the Dem base was this year. In 2020 they will be even more pumped due to their hatred of Trump.
3. GOP will continue to lose even more college-educated suburban whites. They may do better with minorities than in 2016, but it's not enough to compensate for the drop in the suburbs.
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:41 PM Author: angry avocado ticket booth skinny woman I asked Charles. We all know what you think, and you didn't even answer my questions. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217978) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:42 PM Author: Arousing circlehead I don't think Democrats should go full in on minority candidacy, look what happened in Georgia and Florida. The quiet story of the night is how Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa all swung massively back to Democrats. Those 4 states are enough right there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217984) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 5:07 PM Author: Opaque church tank That makes sense, similar to how those states swung violently against Democrats in 2010 and subsequently made Mitt Romney president in 2012. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218164) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 6:04 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple DeSantis won by just 0.4%, and the Georgia governors race was the closest in the state's history. Kemp beat a black female socialist by just 1.6% and got crushed in the Atlanta suburbs, which are traditionally GOP. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218516) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Gaped Magical Incel Who even knows whether Florida is a sure thing! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217844) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:41 PM Author: Arousing circlehead GOP also lost 7 governorships and 450 state legislative seats, flipping numerous chambers right before 2020 redistricting.
GOP positives = will be able to get Judges through
Dem positives = will be able to gerrymander and consolidate control in the house for next 10 years. |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:43 PM Author: Garnet wild messiness Doesn't redistricting happen after the 2020 elections?
Edit: yes. It's done in 2022 |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:46 PM Author: Arousing circlehead yes but most of those governorships are 4 year terms, so whoever is elected now will preside over things. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218013) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:50 PM Author: racy twinkling regret I see the flipped chambers as:
New Hampshire (both) Colorado (senate - dems control both now) Connecticut (senate - dems control both now) Minnesota (house - gop controls senate) Maine (senate - dems control both now)
And presumtively there will be a dem leader in the NY senate, although they nominally had a majority before. |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:54 PM Author: Arousing circlehead Seems like the biggest impact will be in NY where they could gerrymander 2-3 Republicans out.
The rest will probably be minimal impact.
I think the bigger impact will be in states that are currently gerrymandered but where GOP no longer has power to gerrymander again (MI, WI, NC, VA). |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:59 PM Author: racy twinkling regret NY now has a commission for redistricting. NY will also likely lose a seat in the house. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218098) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:08 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple Which individual races most surprised you? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217730) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:47 PM Author: Arousing circlehead Florida Gov.
Texas Senate (margin not outcome)
Virginia 2
Oklahoma City
South Carolina Charleston district
NY-11 (Staten Island)
NJ-3
NY-22
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Date: November 12th, 2018 6:05 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple great list. aside from FL governor, all the surprises went in the favor of Democrats. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218526) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 6:07 PM Author: umber stirring community account So 80% of this thread is just JJC talking to himself? Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218534) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 6:09 PM Author: rusted misanthropic karate Republicans avoided the worst possible outcome and conturds now framing it as 'overperforming'
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Date: November 12th, 2018 9:01 PM Author: Wonderful aquamarine dog poop toilet seat LOL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37219776) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 9:41 PM Author: umber stirring community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37220137) |
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Date: November 12th, 2018 9:00 PM Author: Light fantasy-prone temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37219766) |