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Borders: thoughts on my ranking of key states?
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:22 AM Author: disgusting mediation From most likely to least likely for Trump. Also including NE02 and ME02.
TX OH IA ME02 GA NC FL AZ NE02 WI MI PA MN NV NH ME NM CO VA |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:57 AM Author: Tan university fanboi https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElEExqxX0AAXVPr?format=jpg&name=large (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177263) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 6:02 AM Author: disgusting mediation Yes. Great chart by realika. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177271) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 9:53 AM Author: salmon doctorate Doesn't this imply all those states swing blue for 2020? It looks like an 8 year cycle. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177654) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 11:55 PM Author: Exciting principal's office So when more people like a candidate from one party more people in a different state also like the candidate for that party? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41182216) |
Date: October 24th, 2020 5:31 AM Author: laughsome brindle garrison not borders tp but I feel better about PA than about WI and MI, the rest seems accurate but I know shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177232) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:34 AM Author: electric silver milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177234) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:35 AM Author: Tan university fanboi Yeah I think that's right - even though it's hard to see it w/ PA basically looking as bad as possible despite meaning nothing yet, the voter reg gains there are insanely strong, the oil industry comment is dangerous, and it's telling that biden isn't campaigning in PA outside of Philadelphia ...
Like seriously - if you inferred biden's campaign actions - he picks kamala, his campaign events have been philly, getting obama out to philly, and going on a detroit black radio station - wtf?
That tells you base problems - Obama was actually running +6, last campaign events were in IN and Iowa, mccain was in IN and palin in iowa - that's what a winning vs failing campaign looks like, mccain was having to motivate his basic base in deep red states...
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:57 AM Author: disgusting mediation Only reason I ranked PA below WI and MI is the potential for voter fraud with Roberts cucking on mail ballots and now the state supreme court accepting mail ballots that do NOT match signatures.
Correct. In 08 when Obama won nationally by 7.2%, he was on the offense in red states. First Dem since LBJ 64 to win IN and VA, first Dem since Carter 76 to win NC. Lost MO by just 0.1%, lost MT by 2.4%, lost ND/SD/SC by 8-9%. His rust belt performance was insane. Largest MI and WI margin since LBJ 64, largest PA margin since Nixon 72. |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:38 AM Author: Tan university fanboi basic calculation assuming 2016 + adding voter registration gains (net of switches too, so purely new)
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Date: October 25th, 2020 3:04 AM Author: disgusting mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41182815) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 5:40 AM Author: marvelous parlour this list is SPS without a defined boundary - the state where you think Trump goes from favorite to underdog (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177238) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 6:06 AM Author: laughsome brindle garrison On OP's ranking, Trump wins if he wins Wisconsin https://www.270towin.com/maps/gpYLd If we flip PA above MI and WI, he wins if he wins Pennsylvania https://www.270towin.com/maps/LnYrj |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 9:57 AM Author: crawly dysfunction I don’t see how Trump wins WI if he loses MI, MN and PA. Just doesn’t really make sense. It all comes down to PA IMO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41177665) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 11:54 PM Author: Chest-beating Cerise Mad Cow Disease Clown Why doesnt it make sense (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41182208) |
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Date: October 25th, 2020 10:17 AM Author: crawly dysfunction Biden’s margin in PA is basically the same as his margin in MI (he has bigger margins in WI and MN). The entire Trumpmo case is premised on the shy Trump voter, polls underweighting Trump voters, etc. If Biden ends up winning PA (I.e. the polls were right or at least not off by that much) then it stands to reason that he’ll likely have enough margin in the rest of those states as well given their similarities in demographics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41183355) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 4:21 PM Author: disgusting mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41179831) |
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Date: October 24th, 2020 11:50 PM Author: disgusting mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660447&forum_id=2#41182186) |