Johns Hopkins analysis: COVID has had no effect on overall US death rates
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 26th, 2020 10:41 PM Author: Lemon Flickering Rehab
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
According to new data, the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases, new cases per day and deaths. Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.”
From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.
She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.
After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.
“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.
Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
This comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?
To answer that question, Briand shifted her focus to the deaths per causes ranging from 2014 to 2020. There is a sudden increase in deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19. This is no surprise because COVID-19 emerged in the U.S. in early 2020, and thus COVID-19-related deaths increased drastically afterward.
Analysis of deaths per cause in 2018 revealed that the pattern of seasonal increase in the total number of deaths is a result of the rise in deaths by all causes, with the top three being heart disease, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia.
“This is true every year. Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes,” Briand pointed out.
When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.
The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease.
“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.
In an interview with The News-Letter, Briand addressed the question of whether COVID-19 deaths can be called misleading since the infection might have exacerbated and even led to deaths by other underlying diseases.
“If [the COVID-19 death toll] was not misleading at all, what we should have observed is an increased number of heart attacks and increased COVID-19 numbers. But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied.
In other words, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the U.S. is considered problematic only when it increases the total number of deaths or the true death burden by a significant amount in addition to the expected deaths by other causes. Since the crude number of total deaths by all causes before and after COVID-19 has stayed the same, one can hardly say, in Briand’s view, that COVID-19 deaths are concerning.
Briand also mentioned that more research and data are needed to truly decipher the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States.
Throughout the talk, Briand constantly emphasized that although COVID-19 is a serious national and global problem, she also stressed that society should never lose focus of the bigger picture — death in general.
The death of a loved one, from COVID-19 or from other causes, is always tragic, Briand explained. Each life is equally important and we should be reminded that even during a global pandemic we should not forget about the tragic loss of lives from other causes.
According to Briand, the over-exaggeration of the COVID-19 death number may be due to the constant emphasis on COVID-19-related deaths and the habitual overlooking of deaths by other natural causes in society.
During an interview with The News-Letter after the event, Poorna Dharmasena, a master’s candidate in Applied Economics, expressed his opinion about Briand’s concluding remarks.
“At the end of the day, it’s still a deadly virus. And over-exaggeration or not, to a certain degree, is irrelevant,” Dharmasena said.
When asked whether the public should be informed about this exaggeration in death numbers, Dharmasena stated that people have a right to know the truth. However, COVID-19 should still continuously be treated as a deadly disease to safeguard the vulnerable population.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41443003)
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Date: November 26th, 2020 11:18 PM Author: Puce odious gaping incel
"But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied."
.
.
Q: Are hospitals inflating the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths so they can be paid more?
A: Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no evidence of fraudulent reporting.
hmmm. we have a crazy mystery here.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41443178) |
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Date: November 26th, 2020 11:42 PM Author: Lemon Flickering Rehab
When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.
The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease.
“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41443275) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 1:18 PM Author: Razzmatazz gaped organic girlfriend
To be fair,
Whoa CR
But go easy on them—just like yesterday (Thanksgiving) was our holiday, today (Black Friday) is their holiday.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445543) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 11:50 AM Author: Lemon Flickering Rehab
https://twitter.com/jhunewsletter/status/1332100136152035330?s=21
The article “A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19,” published in the Science & Technology section on Nov. 22, has been deleted.
Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic. We regret that this article may have contributed to the spread of misinformation about COVID-19.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445040) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 1:14 PM Author: lime histrionic set
Ill push this back a little bit and welcome clarification:
The purported reason for the withdrawal of the article is lack of peer review, combined with the researcher reaching a diametrically opposite conclusion from the CDC.
I'll defer to neither of them.
The CDC claims a rise in excess death of around 300k this year. It's hard for me, a non stats lolyer, to make good sense of how they get this number, but it appears to use a metric they call "expected death" -- which is far more opaque than just counting. They measure week over same week in previous years and use locales more granular than the entire US.
Nonetheless, they point to, in black and white language, an excess death that *would* match up with covid, somewhere around 300k.
Spending five minutes on google, it's hard to get direct access to annual deaths in the US. The number has seemed to be around 2.8M for the past few years, but as a percentage of total pop it has been slinking downwards slightly. Id guess there are a handful of things you have to measure -- how big is the fucking country? What's its rate of pop increase? (For example, did 5M fewer migrants come in from the south this year?) Is it aging? What should be the total deaths in the US for 2020 if covid never left the bat -- based purely on models from 2017 forward?
THATS the number, of course, to measure against actual deaths so far.
Long story short, this lady claims NO excess deaths and its disputed. Rather than accept her claim, Id appreciate clarity. If only to BLAST this through the libosphere of my acquaintances
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445529) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 1:18 PM Author: blue adventurous fat ankles
You will never find this information. I've seen it compiled once before and then deleted. Seems like a pretty straight forward issue. It's just a number. Why is it so hard to find?
Sweden's was poasted here and showed a decrease compared to 2017.
This also doesn't explain eg the all of a sudden decline in heart disease. C'mon man!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445545) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 1:22 PM Author: lime histrionic set
Im leaving aside the shifting ingredients OF the number for the time being. For example, if there is indeed a 300k increase, Im not that bothered by covid supplanting heart disease as COD on more and more deaths. Its a bureaucratic quirk that we only use one COD, and we already know that people who die of covid are unwell.
But there OUGHT to be a number that is Expected 2020 death total in USA (based on previous years and slight adjustments for rate of genpop increase and aging [if the country is aging, i dont even know]).
THAT number is important and must be ascertainable in some of these CDC links
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445558) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 1:31 PM Author: lime histrionic set
I dont think it would be that controversial to say, "without covid we'd list this death as heart. with covid, we list the same corpse as covid. It was the trigger which exacerbated a vulnerable circulatory system".
They only get to list the ONE fucking cause, which is just a problem in data collecting, not a conspiracy.
What would be massively controversial is her claim that -- while covid was supplanting heart and other things -- there was no actual increase in dead bodies.
CDC contradicts this as frankly as she claims it.
That needs a public adjudication
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445613) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:49 PM Author: Razzmatazz gaped organic girlfriend
To be fair,
Status: “Outdated”
Lol libs ur all gonna die
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446372) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: lime histrionic set
I went and found her graph, which appears to show total deaths, reaching back to 2014. The line undulates seasonally.
I dont know how to link from my phone. But if you google aier.org and "accounting error" you will find it.
Around 2014, the total death per week was around 50k and it has been slowly rising to closer to 60k as years pass.
There was a peak in 2018, presumably with a bad flu, and a higher peak in spring 2020. The higher peak is slightly explained by the baseline average being higher (more people I guess), but even still it is higher, though by a small number -- 11 thousand.
I still dont know where the CDC is getting its 300k excess death numbers. Starting to think its fraud, but would like to read more before announcing a total fraud-conspiracy.
This conversation should be precise as hell.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445752) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: outnumbered flirting coffee pot foreskin
I knew the virus's severity and just about everything else about it was being exaggerated, but I assumed it is actually increasing # of deaths to at least some significant extent, particularly in the elderly.
Now I don't know. How fucking hard is it to state the number of raw deaths in 2017, 2018, and 2019 through October and then compare to the # of deaths through October 2020?
WHY IS THIS DATA SO HARD TO FIND
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445777) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 2:15 PM Author: Godawful misunderstood boltzmann
i find this thread really confusing.
i promise - i PROMISE - i don't have a dog in this fight. i really just am interested in knowing the truth, i am completely politically agnostic. and as evidence of that i invite everyone to revisit the threads i created in april and may measuring excess mortality. my conclusions back then were that there DID appear to be a significant increase in all-cause mortality in the weeks in which COVID was or was supposedly ravaging various parts of the country
is that wrong, now?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445864) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 2:25 PM Author: lime histrionic set
I agree entirely. Even by the charts she and the other debunkers are using, there is a big spike in deaths in the spring of 2020... bigger than any spike going back to 2013.
By her own chart, the 2020 peak is 11k over the peak in 2018, the only year that comes very close. (And peaks are peaks off average numbers between 50 and 60, so 11 is very visible.)
Perhaps the low part of the cycle eats up that spike and the year averages out the same as 2018.... Without doing the math I would say it looks like there will be excess deaths this year.
It looks like it will be five digits excess, though (presuming December doesnt go buckwild like April).
So on the one hand, you have the CDC saying 300,000 excess, and this woman saying basically no excess, and the truth being somewhere in the five digits.
Further complicating things, peaks are no good because everyone dies at the same time, and 2020 had a helluva a peak in April. Even if the "excess" irons out to a humble number, institutions are obviously built to deal with gentle seasonal swings, not excess. I could see some regional areas getting reamed by a local peak which might be much spikier than the national charts illustrate.
Say, El Paso peaking 500% over two weeks or something.
My takeaway is that the CDC is scare-mongering, counting every Covid death as excess, when nearly all of them arent. And whistleblowers like this lady pushing back by saying "NO" excess death, which opens the door to "both sides are wrong" false symmetry, because the CDC is much much more wrong
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445906) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 2:50 PM Author: frozen cerebral dog poop shitlib
The problem is everyone is looking at deaths as the disease.
Newsflash - everyone fucking dies.
What probably happened was that some olds got murked earlier than they should have by 6 months. They were dying sooner or later and probably this year.
So if you average it out over the year no shit its gonna be the same.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446045) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 2:40 PM Author: aqua multi-billionaire
It would seem to me that the only interesting question about COVID at this point has nothing to do with death, really.
COVID has killed a few thousand people in the US, by which I mean people who were not already on death's door have died of it. That's awful, and the actual tragedy (such as it is) surrounding this crisis. I'm not certain we could effectively manage these deaths--most spread is at home, the people infecting them are asymptomatic carriers, this is America and we're never going to get even 75% cotton mask compliance, much less 95% N-95, etc.
COVID has pulled many 2021 deaths into 2020, and will pull 2022 deaths into 2021. We will find ourselves with a dramatic excess of ICU capacity in 2022, as well as death rates below 2019. At least 95% of COVID deaths hasten an already certain deaths by a year or less. No one seriously disputes any of this at this point.
So really the only question is: how does COVID-19 affect the living? Those who contract it and recover (almost everyone under 80)? There are reports of worrying effects: healthy, young people contracting Type I diabetes soon after. Lingering cognitive effects. Etc. Each of these conditions in a healthy person counts for ten of the 'shoves' out of death's doorway that COVID has performed. To the extent we can, we should shift our focus entirely to how we prevent--if we can--the sequelae of COVID in the living. Deaths from COVID are either mostly unavoidable tragedies, or mostly inevitable eventualities.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41445989) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 2:49 PM Author: Lemon Flickering Rehab
On the other hand, new-onset diabetes and severe metabolic complications of preexisting diabetes, including diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolarity for which exceptionally high doses of insulin are warranted, have been observed in patients with Covid-19.1-3
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Citation goes to a study where ONE PERSON got new onset diabetes. Are you fucking shitting me?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446033) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:06 PM Author: aqua multi-billionaire
What line of argument? Literally all I said was 'post-COVID effects in healthy young people are worrisome', more or less. I made NO recommendations as to what should be done, if anything. I am not advocating for any kind of position other than this: if we later come to find that healthy, young people truly have been hurt by a COVID-19 infection and recovery, that will have been tragic, and if there existed some reasonable countermeasure to prevent that, it should have been the focus as opposed to preventing deaths, which are almost all inevitable over short time horizons. I take no position as to which countermeasure, if any at all, would have been appropriate, but at some point during the last few months it's where our focus should have shifted. Okay?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446135) |
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Date: November 29th, 2020 10:47 AM Author: Gay boyish toaster church
You’re a woman?
You made up a basis for fear (long term effects in the young) that so far has no foundation in fact or science.
This virus is not some mystery pathogen that fell from the heavens. It’s a coronavirus, and not even the first SARS coronavirus.
This is possibly one of (if not THE) most studied virus this year. Granted all diseases can and do cause lasting effects in some people, but you think some serious long term effects or hints of these effects will just go completely unnoticed by the hordes of researchers scrutinizing the data?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41455024) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 2:52 PM Author: lime histrionic set
the matter is so politicized that we cannot land on agreed numbers for very concrete, inarguable facts (dead bodies) from the past.
I have zero hope that we could form any consensus about future events and how to avoid or manage them.
If anything, it's just laid bare that, all blame aside, america is unable to govern itself as a single nation. our institutions cannot stretch their credibility to cover all of us. A functioning country NEEDS a cdc and it needs to be the most boring, predictably behaving agency of all time, trusted by everyone. lol
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446056) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:01 PM Author: Razzmatazz gaped organic girlfriend
To be fair,
>>> Implying they a hack Fed lifer Boomer has “life’s work”
Let me stop you right there hoss
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446110) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 2:45 PM Author: gold base
Lmao this is one of the most devastating threads to libs I've seen in a while
Just scanned down the list of replies and I don't think a single known lib sudo has responded to this thread. Libs??? We know you're out there
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446017) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 2:59 PM Author: Lemon Flickering Rehab
LMAO. They're literally proving her point here
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Briand also claimed in her analysis that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may be incorrectly categorized as COVID-19-related deaths. However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446086) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:01 PM Author: Lemon Flickering Rehab
She downloaded all her data from the CDC. So either the data the CDC is putting up is wrong, or the CDC is wrong.
The CDC for some reason refuses to publish the underlying data and methodology for their 300K excess death number
This should be easy enough to rectify, and the fact the CDC won't do so is a giant red flag to anyone that isn't a fucking brainwashed lib NPC
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446104) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:18 PM Author: Godawful misunderstood boltzmann
i should note that THIS graph was consistent with my own modeling when i was doing it back in april.
i think i agree with A Game of ?. in my view, this is a classic example of the following phenomenon, which i'm beginning to see a disturbing amount of the time in conventional sociopolitical discourse:
- orthodox, mainstream view emerges
- serious flaw with orthodox, mainstream view becomes evident
- heterodox thinkers emerge to tout existence of flaw
- heterodox thinkers split into two groups:
- those who believe that the flaw needs to be explored
- those who believe that the existence of the flaw proves that the orthodox position is flatly wrong
- orthodoxy attacks flaw by refuting heterodox group two and lumping in heterodox group one, thus ending inquiry
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446194) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 3:08 PM Author: trip copper national jap
Where the fuck are board libs?
Maybe repost thread with the title about some sex offender being killed to trick them into clicking
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446150) |
Date: November 27th, 2020 3:55 PM Author: Cerise psychic
Trumpmos, what are you trying to prove here? That ambulance chasing XO lawyers are capable of google searching talking points from Breitbart and pass it off as medical expertise?
Well, I can do that too. Took me about 30 seconds to find some from reputable sources
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0
“In relative terms, this amounts to an 18% (15–21%) increase in deaths over this period in these countries combined. Italy, Spain and England and Wales accounted for 24%, 22% and 28% of these excess deaths, respectively.”
Here’s a few more articles. A simple google search
https://www.hcplive.com/view/excess-deaths-us-increased-covid-19
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-health-mexico-5324b5f7aa4cc551d05e9c6cf2ed4170
Anyway, if you’re still in virus fraudmo and cant wait a few months and to try out that new nearby pub, I encourage you all to go ahead! Live your life! Hug your friends! Large indoor gatherings! It’s just a virus, right? Masks r for pussies! You’re not scared of a little virus are you?
Tl;dr - XO trumpmos dumb as a rock
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446405)
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:57 PM Author: Flesh zippy faggot firefighter crackhouse
why haven't you donated all of your money to help solve covid-19?
also, from your 2nd link:
Woolf and colleagues observed increases for cardiovascular disease mortality rates from late March to early April. They also noted 2 different spikes for Alzheimer disease and dementia-related deaths in the same time period, and then again from early June to late July.
“US deaths attributed to some noninfectious causes increased during COVID-19 surges,” they wrote. “Excess deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19 could reflect deaths from unrecognized or undocumented infection with (SARS-CoV-2) or deaths among uninfected patients resulting from disruptions produced by the pandemic.”
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446415) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 4:12 PM Author: Flesh zippy faggot firefighter crackhouse
Despite research limitations including a reliance on provisional data and potential inaccuracies in death certificates, Woolf and colleagues concluded the pandemic has already left an indelible mark in national mortality rates.
well that just settles it! nothing to see here!
now you're just making numbers up. real death rate is .005%. less bad than the flu. for every person "testing" poz you have 10 other people who have had it but never get tested.
you should also donate all of your money to fight covid-19. until you can prove that you've done that, i can't take anything you say seriously because it's literally in bad faith - you don't want to help fight this deadly disease but want to punish other people for your inactivity.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446488) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 3:57 PM Author: Razzmatazz gaped organic girlfriend
To be fair,
“Only took me a few moments to find some reputable sources using Jewgle”
>>> “Nature” magazine
>>> AP News
Lol Paulie just lol
PS: You’re literally 5’4”, we’ve all seen the pictures. Have a good holiday weekend!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446417) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 4:08 PM Author: Razzmatazz gaped organic girlfriend
To be fair,
Yep right up there with NEJM. Unfortunately for Trumptards, the *science* and the *medicine* is clear: Biden is the scientifically and medically correct vote for President. Sorry, it’s science and medicine, bros.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812
While we’re talking about unsubstantiated claims and no evidence—would you consider the photos of you looking hilariously short that get passed around the Bort like Benzo in a prison ward to be “evidence” of how hilariously tiny you are? Or is that debunked? What does the science say?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446469) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 4:08 PM Author: Flesh zippy faggot firefighter crackhouse
and from your 3rd link
But the Health Department said experts had now analyzed databases of death certificates up to late September — the latest date for which complete data was available — to come up with the latest figure of 139,153. The analysis picked up symptoms related to COVID-19 mentioned on death certificates even if they weren’t listed as the cause of death.
Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the expected number of deaths from an average of previous years to those in 2020.
The department did not explain the other 54,000 “excess” deaths, but experts in other countries have suggested that more people may have died from non-coronavirus causes simply because hospitals were crowded with COVID-19 patients, or people were wary of seeking medical attention for other illnesses because they feared getting infected
so these aren't even real numbers, they're just guessing. lol @ your "sources"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446472) |
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Date: November 27th, 2020 5:22 PM Author: Supple indecent site love of her life
with highest rates among people of color
with highest rates among people of color
with highest rates among people of color
Covid is racist!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41446790) |
Date: November 30th, 2020 2:19 AM Author: blue adventurous fat ankles
https://www.noagendashow.net/listen/1299
Second story on the podcast. They played the presentation she gave. I sent both links over and got a reply same day.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41459585) |
Date: November 30th, 2020 2:02 PM Author: crimson ticket booth dragon
A drop in deaths for heart disease and other leading causes of death (cancer) is not at all unexpected given what we've seen in past studies that have reviewed fatality rates after an immediate cessation in surgeries (in one study a strike by surgeons in area hospitals). The dirty little secret in American medicine is that surgeries and long-term hospital stays for heart disease and cancer can hasten a patient's death more often than we'd care to admit. There's an argument that in the long-run as a population we're better with these medical interventions, but at least in the short run, people are much more likely to enter a hospital and die than if they stayed at home with their cancer or heart disease.
The decline in flu and pneumonia deaths is expected given the significant decline in people testing positive for flu (which is itself expected since the flu is half as contagious as COVID and people are more likely now to wear masks, stay home, socially distance etc.).
I think the author's conclusion is really reckless, particularly for someone claiming to be an accomplished statistician. The above points are well known and the more likely explanation than the author's baseless speculation about improper classification of deaths. Not mention the recent raw death totals (discussed in another xo thread) showing that we are on track for about 500k more deaths than the average number of deaths in 2017 through 2019.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4699457&forum_id=2#41461903) |
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