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Do dems believe all the polls are wrong now?
| talented quadroon | 03/18/24 |
| dark bearded pit scourge upon the earth | 03/18/24 |
| histrionic cordovan indian lodge | 03/18/24 |
| bronze low-t degenerate | 03/18/24 |
| wonderful pistol | 03/18/24 |
| bronze low-t degenerate | 03/18/24 |
| Misunderstood business firm | 03/18/24 |
| bistre orchestra pit ceo | 03/18/24 |
| dun sandwich | 03/18/24 |
| bistre orchestra pit ceo | 03/18/24 |
| histrionic cordovan indian lodge | 03/18/24 |
| mint yapping masturbator | 03/18/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 18th, 2024 9:21 PM Author: talented quadroon Or, that somehow they will change in the next 8 months? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505544) |
Date: March 18th, 2024 9:22 PM Author: dark bearded pit scourge upon the earth do all cons believe the polls this time? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505553) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:24 PM Author: histrionic cordovan indian lodge Does seem like it.
Not making predictions but if Turnip is still leading Bidet come this August, he's winning the election. Probably. |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:25 PM Author: bronze low-t degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505566) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:27 PM Author: wonderful pistol Thus is one of those liberal arts things. It’s called “peaking early” and it’s bad. People get sick of the winning candidate and double down on hating them. Like 20% of the population changes its mind like 6 times between now and Election Day. Kind of like how people got sick of Nintendo and bought PS1s. Things come in waves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505572) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:28 PM Author: bronze low-t degenerate No. Dems are fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505575) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:29 PM Author: Misunderstood business firm They believe they will steal the election again so it doesn’t matter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505584) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:31 PM Author: bistre orchestra pit ceo They do oddly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505594) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:33 PM Author: dun sandwich The polls pretty much show this is a dead heat at the moment… (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505604) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:40 PM Author: bistre orchestra pit ceo Oh man, I wonder who wins in that scenario? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505637) |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:53 PM Author: histrionic cordovan indian lodge Logic dictates a national dead heat means Turnip winning swing states and the electoral college.
Dems stack up enormous majorities in California, giving them the popular vote majorities. Five million of Bidet's 7 million vote lead over Turnip in 2020 can be attributed to California alone. Majority in CA + NY explains Biden's popular vote lead, but those are wasted excess votes on an enormous scale. The election really came down to a handful of swing states that Bidet won by 100k cumulatively.
RCP polling average has given Turnip a consistent lead over Bidet since last September, other than one or two brief blimps. It's a bit more than a dead heat lead. Neck to neck polling would be the year leading up to September 2023 when sometimes Bidet led sometimes Turnip led and they reversed places regularly enough. But it's been six months that Turnip has now maintained that small but stubborn lead over Bidet nationally.
Swing states are shifting to Turnip by bigger margins than the national lead, unsurprisingly. But it's still eight months till election day and things could change. But I stand by the observation that if Turnip maintains that narrow lead over Bidet come this August, it's unlikely Bidet can reverse it by election day given his inability to do that in the year beforehand. |
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Date: March 18th, 2024 9:35 PM Author: mint yapping masturbator Who cares? I thought Trump was getting convicted for sure, since he was charged with so many crimes by three different prosecutors. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5505951&forum_id=2#47505612) |