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Leopold Aschenbrenner essay on the AI arms race that will change world by 2027
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Date: June 12th, 2024 3:47 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth Really good read and a podcast he did about it. Dude is very smart.
tl;dr version: superintelligence is within reach and the capex to get there is being spent, the teams are being assembled, the power plants built, etc.; eventually US government will step in to oversee the project as a kind of Manhattan Project because a six-month head start is the equivalent of 20-30 years in arms development; things get really weird from a game theory perspective once superintelligence is achieved but before the robots take over. It's US v. China with the Middle East and Russia posing major risks because of their abundant natural energy resources.
Essay: https://situational-awareness.ai/ Four-hour podcast: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/leopold-aschenbrenner |
Date: June 12th, 2024 4:28 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47740975) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 4:50 PM Author: flirting step-uncle's house pretty chill that the world will end in five years and I spend my precious remaining days poasting on a decrepit law school admissions forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47741056) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 6:14 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth It’s part of the data set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47741277) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:22 PM Author: razzle-dazzle cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47741556) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:25 PM Author: Supple coiffed boiling water *superintelligent AI addressing the world* "I'm gay and retarded" |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:26 PM Author: razzle-dazzle cruise ship 180000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47741570) |
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Date: June 14th, 2024 9:03 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47748063) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:22 PM Author: Soul-stirring Idiotic Ape Patrolman He just had another podcast with Chollet that was interesting and raised some concerns about this LLM maximalist point of view. LLMs still perform quite poorly on ARC. There are real concerns that transformer scaling will not address all the problems with out of distribution generalization and algorithmic reasoning. This buys a bit of time and probably pushes out timelines past 2027. Things will become progressively weirder though over the next decade and it’s hard to see how AGI is out more than 15 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47741554) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:29 PM Author: razzmatazz hunting ground nothing being done in "ai" right now is a road to actual intelligence. what we have right now is essentially a sophisticated version of a database that can accept unstructured queries and that can interpolate between dataset entries. it would take a complete paradigm shift to get to something qualitatively more powerful than that. may or may not happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47741579) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 11:34 AM Author: Wonderful ticket booth This is not right. The trend lines are clear. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47743102) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 12:51 PM Author: razzmatazz hunting ground no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47743420) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 1:23 PM Author: Soul-stirring Idiotic Ape Patrolman Most people seem like pattern matchers who aren’t able to robustly deal with novel situations. I would trust GPT-4 more to solve a random math word problem or answer RC questions from an LSAT than most people. The interpolation/extrapolation distinction becomes less and less meaningful in high dimensional spaces when you are training on everything. I agree LLMs don’t go all the way but they very likely go a lot further than they do now and there are other things in the AI space used for game playing that look like they can be combined with LLMs to bootstrap capabilities. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47743513) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 2:01 PM Author: razzmatazz hunting ground llms far surpass humans at defined, stereotyped tasks that we have a lot of data for. they can't generalize to unseen environments (new probability distributions) and they lack an inherent teleology to prompt them interact with those environments. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47743680) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 2:47 PM Author: Soul-stirring Idiotic Ape Patrolman I agree with this but most people suck at dealing with novel situations too and they can’t even do the routine cognitive tasks that GPT-4 excels at. I don’t think a median human could be made competitive with it at reading comprehension tasks. With 100x the training compute, there is no chance. There is really no principled reason why LLMs paired with model based RL couldn’t be made data efficient and adaptable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47743890) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 4:14 PM Author: razzmatazz hunting ground this is silly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47744229) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 11:39 AM Author: stirring free-loading international law enforcement agency I, for one, cant wait for AI to do all my TPS reports for me. Whatever will I do once those are automated? Never mind that basically everything we do in Compliance is bespoke transaction monitoring and the vanilla bulk transaction stuff was automated 24-25 years ago and hasnt had humans involved in a generation anyway.
Like the biggest thing is Compliance now is marijuana and the hemp exemption BS that plagues us. The fuck is AI going to do about any of that? |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 11:43 AM Author: Wonderful ticket booth The interesting thing about his essay is the geopolitics part. The time when AGI is pursued by private companies is coming to a close. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47743136) |
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Date: June 16th, 2024 7:28 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#47752081) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 3:00 PM Author: Soul-stirring Idiotic Ape Patrolman Ivanka read it and endorsed it. Can’t believe how much AI is starting to affect elite thinking
https://x.com/IvankaTrump/status/1839002887600370145 |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 5:15 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth There’s like a five percent chance of total destruction and a five percent chance of positive total transformation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#48247027) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 6:20 PM Author: Soul-stirring Idiotic Ape Patrolman And the other scenarios? I don’t see much room for an outcome in between. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#48247316) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 6:22 PM Author: Aphrodisiac dysfunction temple pretty sure something like Idiocracy covers most of the 90% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#48247323) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 6:24 PM Author: bat shit crazy pervert Nope. It's going to be a post-scarcity utopia, extinction, or some sort of truly weird outcome like everyone being uploaded into a simulation of something retarded for eternity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#48247333) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 8:36 PM Author: Soul-stirring Idiotic Ape Patrolman Right. Like what would be a plausible middle ground with hyper intelligent machines? You would have to believe intelligence tops at exactly the human level, when we have many reasons for believing that is not the case. Life can not go on in a normal way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#48247755) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 9:37 PM Author: Wonderful ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#48270046) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:16 AM Author: .,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,.,.,...,,..,, Where r we on this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#50035998) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:23 AM Author: The Penis We are currently at a point where AI has surpassed almost all if not all humans in intelligence. And it's not even 2027 yet. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#50036002) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:25 AM Author: .,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,.,.,...,,..,, lol we’ve got a live one here folks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#50036007) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:26 AM Author: The Penis Do you think you are more intelligent than Claude Fable? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#50036009) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:45 AM Author: .,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,.,.,...,,..,, Yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2锞兾告触锟界锟絇HPSESSID=962c303388ae8b5678383d002493727e#50036028) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 1:57 AM Author: Ceci n'est pas un pumo He seems extremely gay (but I guess he isn't?)
https://x.com/dnapway/status/2082876150322540657 |