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Is Russia losing this? It kind of feel like they are.
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Date: March 14th, 2022 1:40 AM Author: drab parlor digit ratio they haven't taken a major city, are barely making progress, taking huge troop/vehicle losses and time isn't on their side with the season changing and with the sanctions destroying their economy.
at minimum, this wasn't worth it even if they are able to occupy all of Ukraine. at worst they will flat out have to leave with their tail between their legs. I am starting to think it will be the latter, unless China bails them out, but I don't see that happening. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:39 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Russian forces again conducted few ground offensives on March 13, only securing new terrain in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Russian forces predominantly took measures to restore combat readiness and regrouped combat units as of noon local time on March 13.[1] Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Russian forces may intend to resume larger-scale attacks on both axes of advance in the coming week, but will likely take longer to (or may never) cohere the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of Kyiv.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the third day in a row. Russian forces did not conduct attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and prioritized reinforcing their lines of communication and logistics routes. Russian and proxy forces successfully captured several towns north of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast on March 13, the only offensive ground actions of the day. Ukrainian protests in occupied Kherson are likely expanding. Russia is diluting its international deployments in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to reinforce operations in Ukraine and pulling additional forces from Russia’s far east. Ukrainian intelligence reported Russia will deploy preexisting pro-Assad Syrian units to Ukraine, in addition to previously announced plans to recruit new Syrian and Libyan mercenaries. These forces are unlikely to enable Russia to favorably change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may provide a longer-term pool of low-quality replacements. Russian ballistic missiles killed 35 Ukrainians at the Yavoriv military training center near Poland in a likely effort to interdict Western aid deliveries to Ukraine—following up on the Kremlin’s March 12 announcement it will treat international aid shipments as military targets.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13 |
Date: March 14th, 2022 1:41 AM Author: high-end exhilarant police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144113) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 2:00 AM Author: White hideous indian lodge puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144156) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:31 AM Author: Mewling iridescent stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144506) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:35 AM Author: Jade boyish nowag market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144751) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:37 AM Author: Shivering slimy pocket flask lugenpoaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144758) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 1:44 AM Author: Lake theater stage yes, they have lost already but putin doesnt want to admit it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144120) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 1:44 AM Author: mauve titillating dysfunction The problem for Putin is that he needs an exit, and he doesn't have one. Ukraine will likely need to give him something so that Putin can declare victory at home, but it may be as small as recognizing the annexation of Crimea, which has long been a foregone conclusion. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144121) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 1:47 AM Author: drab parlor digit ratio why doesn't Ukraine just do that? It sounds like it's almost all Russian people living there anyway. Why do they care at this point? But it would need to be a solid agreement with some kind of consequence that can be backed up because Russia hasn't respected past agreements like Ukraine giving up 2000 nukes for its sovereignty. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144125) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 3:50 AM Author: pontificating meetinghouse he's right now seeing how much he can bleed Ukraine to see how much he can take of the "claimed" Donetsk/Luhansk territory before declaring victory.
I think Ukraine is shoe-in for EU, but NATO is permanently off the table |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:37 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144756) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 2:02 AM Author: arousing brunch playing Total War to understand their situation a bit better. I played the Russian grand campaign in Napoleon: TW. In the first few turns I recruited two armies to march into Munich, where Napoleon met me head on with his cavalry and cannons. With my expert battle tactics I was able to defeat the French fusilier army 1,200 strong with only 600 of my men- I also killed Napoleon. Now my generals make way for Stuttgart, and I was able to stave off the Ottoman empire by looting their territories neighboring Odessa and Kyev/Kyiv. Of course it helped that Austria, Prussia, and Great Britain have formed a military alliance with me, fast forward to modern times and you have a vastly different scenario, I've yet to replicate it on a modern Strategy game, no idea where to start. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144160) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:34 AM Author: Lilac mediation chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144750) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 10:33 AM Author: balding swollen lay haunted graveyard You can’t kill Napoleon, he just goes back to Paris to recuperate.
Create protectorate states between you and France. Prussians are untrustworthy fucks in that game so watch out. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 2:02 AM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook YES. It's a shitty third world country with a tiny pink economy and it's shit's getting destroyed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144162) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 2:54 AM Author: Insanely creepy glittery bbw genital piercing Even if they occupy the entire country (which they can't do, and couldn't afford even if they had the ability) its an unwinnable war lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144258) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:44 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144780) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:56 AM Author: multi-colored center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144823) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:34 AM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145588) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 4:35 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Are you guys literally this stupid?
Do you know how much food Ukraine ships to the rest of Europe? Look it up.
If you control Ukraine, you can starve Europe at will. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 4:51 AM Author: Garnet hall (Oberkommando Wehrmacht- June 1941) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144445) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:37 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144754) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:11 AM Author: Maniacal lettuce university i think europe can figure out how to plant seeds in soil, dumbass. it's not a game of risk and putin never wanted ukraine for its wheat production. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144486) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:19 AM Author: swashbuckling church yeah, we're playing a game here, pal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144491) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:28 AM Author: Garnet hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144502) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:34 AM Author: supple feces Ukraine is game to you?! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145586) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:41 PM Author: Maniacal lettuce university imagined in terrance and phillip voice (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44148302) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:23 AM Author: Impressive medicated range What a literal fucking retard. Go plant some seeds and feed millions of people like its NBD. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144496) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:27 AM Author: Insanely creepy glittery bbw genital piercing You're a dry cleaner gook kys (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144501) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:32 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Go plant some seeds in the ground and make some corn you idiot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144508) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:51 AM Author: Green cuckold selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144669) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:32 AM Author: Maniacal lettuce university (strategic barley famine tp) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144510) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:35 AM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145594) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:44 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Date: March 14th, 2022 4:35 AM Author: DevryMastersCandidate
Are you guys literally this stupid? Do you know how much food Ukraine ships to the rest of Europe? Look it up.
If you control Ukraine, you can starve Europe at will.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144425) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:16 AM Author: Filthy turquoise nursing home lol holy shit you're as dumb as they say.
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:35 AM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145593) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 10:48 PM Author: bright histrionic state On a boart full of autistic retards hr manages to stand out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44150012) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:31 PM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44150214) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:35 AM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook How many times have you been diagnosed with autism and mental illness and OCD? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145592) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:01 AM Author: clear nighttime hospital dingle berry The Russians are not leaving Ukraine intact. These Bilyan-Gulyan freaks will pay dearly for the Russian boys they killed with their NATO collaborators. Already this thing is becoming an absolute slaughter. Soon Putin will lose patience and utilities will be cut to every major city. This is a do or die moment for Russia and Putin knows it. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:24 AM Author: stirring ladyboy i don't see how. ukraine's military is getting smashed to bits more and more by the day. the thing to look for is 'battle of the bulge'-style counter-offensives which push the opposing force back in a substantial way. if the defender is constantly on the defense, and is consistently losing ground rather than taking ground back, that's militarily pretty bad. it usually indicates problems with the defender's capacity to resupply or replenish forces. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144497) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:31 AM Author: Impressive medicated range What are you talking about. There is no "Ukraine military."
There are pockets of soldiers, scattered and dispersed among the civilian population. All C&C is lost. They have few tanks or airplanes left, most of which is hidden away in small pockets and not capable of being massed in any meaningful maneuver element.
They were able to use western Ukraine as something of a safe harbor. Even those are getting absolutely pummeled now.
These reports you see of "train carrying children" being blown up? Lol, those were carrying troops, civilian "volunteers" and weapons. Boom dead.
Civilian building? Lol was a makeshift command center. Boom dead.
Everything the MSM tells you the Russians are doing bad, it's a half-truth that tells you exactly what Ukraine has lost. When they emphasize attacks on nuclear plants, that means they've lost infrastructure. When they emphasize attacks on civilian buildings, that means they've lost bases or military stores.
Just look at the amount of shit the Russians are capturing as the Ukrainians go from retreat to retreat. Entire bases and arsenls are being abandaon, the Ukrainians can't run way fast enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSdFNebMQo0
All those cool toys we sent to Ukraine? Boom. Of course, that's what the defense contractors wanted. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:33 AM Author: bright histrionic state "Boom dead" said the absolutely miserable and joyless autistic chink freak (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144653) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:39 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144765) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:44 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Date: March 14th, 2022 5:31 AM Author: DevryMastersCandidate
What are you talking about. There is no "Ukraine military." There are pockets of soldiers, scattered and dispersed among the civilian population. All C&C is lost. They have few tanks or airplanes left, most of which is hidden away in small pockets and not capable of being massed in any meaningful maneuver element.
They were able to use western Ukraine as something of a safe harbor. Even those are getting absolutely pummeled now.
These reports you see of "train carrying children" being blown up? Lol, those were carrying troops, civilian "volunteers" and weapons. Boom dead.
Civilian building? Lol was a makeshift command center. Boom dead.
Everything the MSM tells you the Russians are doing bad, it's a half-truth that tells you exactly what Ukraine has lost. When they emphasize attacks on nuclear plants, that means they've lost infrastructure. When they emphasize attacks on civilian buildings, that means they've lost bases or military stores.
Just look at the amount of shit the Russians are capturing as the Ukrainians go from retreat to retreat. Entire bases and arsenls are being abandaon, the Ukrainians can't run way fast enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSdFNebMQo0
All those cool toys we sent to Ukraine? Boom. Of course, that's what the defense contractors wanted.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144507) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:35 AM Author: Lake theater stage True. Also USA never lost a battle in Iraq or Afghan and that turned out well for USA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144514) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:37 AM Author: Impressive medicated range What are you talking about.
Operation Anaconda Operation Red Wing FOB Keating
That's just off the top of my head, and that's just in Afghanistan. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:48 AM Author: Lake theater stage what a retard. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144525) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:58 AM Author: Impressive medicated range LJL. I was at Ft. Benning when the 3rd Ranger Battalion returned from Anaconda. Everyone was in awe of them since they were one of the few guys with CIBs and combat patches at the time. But even they were pissed AF at that clusterfuck of an operation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144536) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:35 AM Author: bright histrionic state Anaconda was a victory you stupid chink army cook posing as a soldier. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144656) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:47 AM Author: Impressive medicated range ROFL. Hold on for a second.
ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL.
Literally every element involved in Anaconda called it the stupidest clusterfuck ever that needlessly got people killed.
Charging UP, LITERALLY UP, a mountain against entrenched Uzbek, Chechens and other Arab fighters? LJL jesus fucking christ you should hear some of what the people who actually fought there have to say about Anaconda.
They actually ran out of Apaches to support the troops on the ground because they all got shot up by AA, and had to ask the Marines to send in Cobras. They actually had to activate National Guard CSAR because all the conventional Army CSAR units were shot up. They actually had PJs (pararescue) DO A FUCKING AIRBORNE DROP INTO A MINEFIELD in a desperate attempt to rescue wounded, because they couldn't get helicopters in. Because they couldn't get our troops out, they ended up bleeding out.
It was an unequivocable clusterfuck of a disaster, representative of the failures of early GWOT. Franks and Paul Bremer (responsible for early Iraq clusterfucks) are universally hated by soldiers who fought under them
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:57 AM Author: bright histrionic state Sure. And it was still 100% a victory, you stupid joyless chink autist.
You're a virgin right? Be honest. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:03 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Jesus you're an idiot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144865) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:45 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Date: March 14th, 2022 5:58 AM Author: DevryMastersCandidate
LJL. I was at Ft. Benning when the 3rd Ranger Battalion returned from Anaconda. Everyone was in awe of them since they were one of the few guys with CIBs and combat patches at the time. But even they were pissed AF at that clusterfuck of an operation.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144536) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:50 AM Author: Pearly address hunting ground This post is in clear violation of US Code Title 18 Section 704 and has been forwarded to the appropriate authorities. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144801) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:52 AM Author: Impressive medicated range OMFG DevryMastersCandidate saw 3rd Bat Rangers at Ft. Benning OMFG!!!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144808) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:03 AM Author: bright histrionic state You're an excited little chink today aren't you? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144862) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:08 AM Author: Impressive medicated range You seem obsessed with chinks. Are you faggot? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144885) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:02 PM Author: flushed station HFS YOU WERE AT FORT BENNING!!!
I was actually in Afghanistan in March of 2002. Go sit in the corner and shut the fuck up.
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:30 PM Author: Impressive medicated range And? Are you saying Anaconda was some kind of success? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44150210) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:55 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Anaconda
Result: Coalition victory, Taliban evacuates but suffers heavy casualties
US: 8 dead, Taliban: 80 dead |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:29 AM Author: Impressive medicated range LJL just to kill 80 Taliban you:
1. Allow Bin Laden to slip away due to poor planning and mission execution (blocking force failed to get in position) 2. Land your main assault force in the wrong valley, into a minefield and into an ambush 3. Lose helicopters and cause millions of dollars in repair costs/losses (these losses have implications to later missions which no longer have these air assets available) 4. Spend millions of dollars worth of bombs and munitions, to kill 80 Taliban 5. Temporarily drive the remaining Taliban out of the valley, only for them to retake it when we inevitably pull out 6. Get 8 of our guys killed and 72 wounded
Right. Awesome victory.
p.s. That 80 dead number is also probably an exaggeration. Operation Red Wing only involved something like 10 Taliban, but US DOD claimed it was several hundred. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:57 AM Author: stirring ladyboy if a severe and sustained pro-government insurgency develops in ukraine, that would be a significant problem for russia. i don't dispute that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144535) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:59 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Insurgencies don't just develop, just like you don't just plant seeds in the ground and feed entire countries like that moron is claiming ITT.
The right conditions for insurgency: absolute poverty and misery, complete destruction of infrastructure, zero future prospects for children or elderly. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 6:34 AM Author: Silver thriller gunner So you just looked at the countries where insurgencies developed over past 30 years, saw they were all poor, and concluded that insurgencies only develop in poor countries. Scholarship! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144578) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 6:43 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Ljl I actually had to study this shit. For example, why is there no insurgency in poor countries like Myanmar? What do North Korea and pre Arab spring/pre 911 shithole Arab states have in common? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144584) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 6:45 AM Author: Silver thriller gunner Wow you studied it, congrats (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144587) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 6:48 AM Author: Impressive medicated range I’m not bragging. Its one of the many BS classes I had to take. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144589) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 6:57 AM Author: Silver thriller gunner So you didn’t study Spain during peninsular war, Finland winter war, or any other example that runs contrary to your theoretical framework? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144600) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:40 AM Author: stirring ladyboy the napoleonic wars in iberia were more of an international effort than just a local insurgency, though. the brits HEAVILY backed the rebel factions, and spaniards (like the finns) were also intensely nationalistic. russia has tried to defuse the nationalism issue to some extent by claiming they want a negotiated settlement rather than regime change or outright conquest.
also, the finns ended up permanently losing territory in their wars, including lake ladoga, one of the crown jewels of their historical civilization, as well as vyborg/viipuri. when a mass as immense as russia smashes into you, it always hurts. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:38 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Bringing up the Peninsular War is daft. Bringing up the Winter War shows you're confusing "guerilla warfare" with an "insurgency."
In the former, there remains a semblance of an organized military that is capable of maneuver and unity of command. Portions of the Colonial Army conducted guerilla warfare, for example, Ethan Allen's Green Mountain Boys of Vermont.
In the latter, there is no or limited unity of command. For example, Vietnam is very confusing. On the one hand, you had elements of an insurgency in the activities of the Viet Minh and later the Viet Cong. However, by 1968, particularly after Tet, it was more or less a conventional war fought in the jungle, with the Viet Cong taking orders and coordinating their movements with the NVA. So in that sense, the "insurgency" that began in South Vietnam transformed into a "guerilla war" engaged by a hostile nation (North Vietnam). That is actually when the USA had the greatest chance of victory, but we chickened out.
Learn the difference and maybe I can educate you some more.
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:51 AM Author: Silver thriller gunner Yes I see that you can sort things into neat little buckets that fit your overall theory about the Science of Insurgency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144805) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:55 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Earth and Jupiter are both planets, so you can live in Jupiter right? Said the 4 year old quotemo. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144819) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:46 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Those sound like the conditions that other pro-Russia poasters are predicting Putin will create in Ukraine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144787) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:00 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Except what else did the host countries of modern-day insurgencies lack? Or, why don't certain poor, filthy countries develop insurgencies?
There's something called a strong central government and military/police enforcement.
Poor democratic countries go nuts with insurgencies and warlords. See [random African democratic country].
Poor authoritarian countries that brutally execute would be protestors don't have insurgencies or warlords. See [random Arab country pre-GWOT]. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:02 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend CR this is why Soviet Afghanistan was so peaceful (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144855) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:08 AM Author: Impressive medicated range There was no such thing as a "Soviet Afghanistan." The Russians sent in troops following the Saur Revolution, and after a series of coups, the Mujahadeen started their insurgency. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144883) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:11 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend irrelevant nitpicking and incorrect (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144892) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:13 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Exactly, so it made zero sense for you to bring up the experience of the Soviet military in Afghanistan.
The Mujahadeen rose to power in a vacuum, after a series of coups. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:21 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend The USSR propped up a brutal occupation government, but the mujahideen insuurgency still succeeded in that environment (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144929) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:33 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Jesus fucking Christ. No. There was no Soviet government. The Soviets tried to create one at the last minute through a puppet. It never took. It was far too late. There was already a power vacuum, that competing local interests were fighting over, and then the Soviets show up at the last minute with their guy? Lol no.
And then the Soviets tried to force it anyway, even though they were literally 4,000KM away. The distance from Afghanistan to Moscow is LONGER than New York to London. NOT happening. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:35 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend The foundations of the conflict were laid by the Saur Revolution, a 1978 coup wherein Afghanistan's communist party took power, initiating a series of radical modernization and land reforms throughout the country. These reforms were deeply unpopular among the more traditional rural population and established power structures.[57] The repressive nature of the "Democratic Republic",[58] which vigorously suppressed opposition and executed thousands of political prisoners, led to the rise of anti-government armed groups; by April 1979, large parts of the country were in open rebellion.[59] (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144973) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:39 AM Author: Impressive medicated range My God man. The Saur Revolution was NOT the Soviet backed government. The Soviets overthrew the leaders of the Saur Revolution after like a year.
You're confusing the Saur with the SUBSEQUENT Parcham government, led by the Soviet puppet Babrak Karmal. Again, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan to overthrow the Saur Revolution and install Karmal as leader. This immediately resulted in the Mujahadeen starting their war against the Soviets. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:44 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend you're missing the point. a repressive government was not enough to supress insurgency, in fact inflamed it. they deposed the saur government because the writing was on the wall that it was on thhe road to being overthrown by anti-communist insurgents.
"Based on information from the KGB, Soviet leaders felt that Prime Minister Hafizullah Amin's actions had destabilized the situation in Afghanistan. Following his initial coup against and killing of Taraki, the KGB station in Kabul warned Moscow that Amin's leadership would lead to "harsh repressions, and as a result, the activation and consolidation of the opposition."[154]" |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 10:42 AM Author: Impressive medicated range The "repressive government" had only taken power, before it was immediately overthrown by a large conventional military force (the Soviets). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145330) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:42 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Date: March 14th, 2022 5:24 AM Author: ,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,..,.,.,,..,..,.,,..,.,,.
i don't see how. ukraine's military is getting smashed to bits more and more by the day. the thing to look for is 'battle of the bulge'-style counter-offensives which push the opposing force back in a substantial way. if the defender is constantly on the defense, and is consistently losing ground rather than taking ground back, that's militarily pretty bad. it usually indicates problems with the defender's capacity to resupply or replenish forces.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144497) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 6:45 AM Author: Flickering stag film twinkling uncleanness Russia is winning.
It’s pretty simple, they will starve/freeze out the Ukrainians in the cities.
Notice there is not a lot of on the ground reporting on what is actually happening in the cities. That’s because they are cold and dark. Limited power, limited internet, limited food. Shops are closed and bare.
Ukrainian media says 2.5m have fled. It’s probably double that.
Taking the western part will be hard, but russia likely does not need to do that by force. The Russians have successfully bombed supply depots etc. and that’s all they really need to do. Once the Russians connect Kiev to the south via the dienper and take control of Odessa, it’s over. That could take a while, and probably will, but it does not matter.
The strategic victory comes in the fall. Oil, but more importantly natural gas and grain, are controlled by russia and the Ukraine. With control over both, Putin can freeze europe, and food prices go way up. Europe won’t starve because it can buy food from abroad as it is sufficiently wealthy, but russia can wreck it economically. This is a problem entirely of Europe’s own making by becoming dependent on Russian food and fuel.
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:14 AM Author: clear nighttime hospital dingle berry Teach the eurofags a lesson in morality Normal men understand when you are outranked, you don't be a catty bitch and try to take down the alpha dog you just push ahead with your own life. Definitely never try to partner up with the alpha dog's enemy to take him down, especially when that guy won't commit lol |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:46 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Date: March 14th, 2022 7:14 AM Author: Gay Grandpa
Teach the eurofags a lesson in morality Normal men understand when you are outranked, you don't be a catty bitch and try to take down the alpha dog you just push ahead with your own life. Definitely never try to partner up with the alpha dog's enemy to take him down, especially when that guy won't commit lol
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144621)
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:23 AM Author: pontificating meetinghouse they will eventually take Kiev and the entirety of Eastern Ukraine down to the Sea of Azov. That's as far as they'll get; and they'll be bled to death and ruined getting there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144634) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:25 AM Author: Vengeful bronze piazza They are already bombing everywhere in Hahlostan. Not one village in that country will escape being flattened, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144639) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:26 AM Author: clear nighttime hospital dingle berry Exactly. What a retarded fantsay that Russia will play nice in the face of possible calamity. Millions will die but it's worth it for the likes and retweets I guess. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144645) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:47 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend your buddy DeVryMastersCandidate says that flattening the country will create an insurgency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144791) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:12 AM Author: Impressive medicated range Yes, which is precisely why it will never happen.
Just so we're clear, this is what "flattening a country" looks like:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1291601/middle-east
In every single "battle" picture from Ukraine, the vast majority of structures are intact and unharmed.
In fact, most pictures of "devastated" Ukrainian cities look better than Detroit does today. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:25 AM Author: clear nighttime hospital dingle berry The Soviet Union lost 1.1 million in Stalingrad. Russia can afford to lose 100,000 to take an entire country (full of gas and grain, strategically vital to the future of Russia). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144640) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:26 AM Author: pontificating meetinghouse let's see how weak Czar Vlad's control is vs Czar Stalin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144644) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:40 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144769) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:26 AM Author: Flickering stag film twinkling uncleanness I don’t think you comprehend exactly how resolute Russia is. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144643) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:27 AM Author: Vengeful bronze piazza Or how many mass graves it wants to fill with Hahols. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144647) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:28 AM Author: pontificating meetinghouse even bootlicking slavs can band together to overthrow an unpopular dictator when pushed hard enough (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144650) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:28 AM Author: clear nighttime hospital dingle berry If you've ever known 1 Russian man from the Russian hinterland you know there's no way they are backing down (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144651) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:37 AM Author: Pearly address hunting ground Stick to ur lane bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144757) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:43 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend Date: March 14th, 2022 6:45 AM Author: Drunkard
Russia is winning. It’s pretty simple, they will starve/freeze out the Ukrainians in the cities.
Notice there is not a lot of on the ground reporting on what is actually happening in the cities. That’s because they are cold and dark. Limited power, limited internet, limited food. Shops are closed and bare.
Ukrainian media says 2.5m have fled. It’s probably double that.
Taking the western part will be hard, but russia likely does not need to do that by force. The Russians have successfully bombed supply depots etc. and that’s all they really need to do. Once the Russians connect Kiev to the south via the dienper and take control of Odessa, it’s over. That could take a while, and probably will, but it does not matter.
The strategic victory comes in the fall. Oil, but more importantly natural gas and grain, are controlled by russia and the Ukraine. With control over both, Putin can freeze europe, and food prices go way up. Europe won’t starve because it can buy food from abroad as it is sufficiently wealthy, but russia can wreck it economically. This is a problem entirely of Europe’s own making by becoming dependent on Russian food and fuel.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144586) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:19 PM Author: Zippy Rebellious Mexican Laser Beams This is fucking stupid. The U.S. has stopped growing as much wheat in the past 20 years as Russia and Ukraine grow now.
The west does not need Russia for food or anything other than natural gas - which they'll just have to figure out.
Meanwhile, Russia needs the west for basically every other fucking thing. It isn't even close.
Bread prices will rise in Europe by like 30% one year and then go down to 10% in year 2 and will be flat year 3.
Meanwhile Russia would be shut off from the modern world eating potato soup. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 10:48 PM Author: bright histrionic state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44150007) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:24 AM Author: wonderful out-of-control temple voyeur All these "Russia is winning! Russia is losing!" threads are dumb as hell.
The conflict is more nuanced and you can't say what "winning" or "losing" is without defining the victory conditions.
Is "winning" just destroying Ukraine? Russia is a nuclear superpower and, if that's the victory condition, it could just nuke Ukraine and win. The ramifications would be disastrous for Russia, but it would "win" if you're defining winning solely as "beating" Ukraine.
Is "winning" defined as regime change in Ukraine? Then no, they're probably losing because I don't think the people will accept a regime change at this point. Too many pissed off people in Ukraine.
Is "winning" defined as some ceasefire where Russia gets to annex Crimea and de facto annex Donbas by turning it into two vassal states? I think there's a good chance that Russia may get that. But is it still "winning" if Russia's stock market, economy, and currency collapses, the country is plunged into a massive depression, and their military is revealed as weaker/less effective than expected? |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:28 AM Author: Lake theater stage Winning is where Russia clearly gains more than it lost by starting this war. Its pretty clear this wont happen and therefore Russia lost.
Even if Russia takes over Ukraine, it will be a wasteland, all of Europe will hate them, they wont have access to any tech, and they will become equal to Iran-- an oil/gas country selling to China for some currency but even China wont break western tech sanctions to help Russia. Russia is completely fucked. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:28 AM Author: wonderful out-of-control temple voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144953) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:39 AM Author: Flickering stag film twinkling uncleanness Except China needs Russian oil and gas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144984) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:46 AM Author: Vengeful bronze piazza Guy thinking short term. Empire is forever. Europe can stay pissed about Ukraine for 50 years maybe 100 but in 1000 all will be forgotten but Ukraine will still be Russia. Russia, like Iran, thinks in imperial time scales. Its why both will endure. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145018) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:49 AM Author: wonderful out-of-control temple voyeur February: In two weeks Russia will be holding victory parades in Kiev while the West trembles! March: Just wait 1,000 years. |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:55 AM Author: Vengeful bronze piazza If necessary, yes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145060) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 10:23 PM Author: multi-colored center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44149793) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 10:28 AM Author: Appetizing forum boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44145252) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:31 AM Author: Cowardly locale legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144966) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 7:15 PM Author: Charcoal Comical Friendly Grandma Some people seem to believe that if they win these stupid XO arguments that their side will actually win the war. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44148845) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 11:32 PM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship travel guidebook nobody actually believes that, this argument is to fulfill mentally ill desires, that's all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44150219) |