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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/10/15 |
| marvelous twinkling trailer park | 12/12/15 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 01/02/17 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 01/06/16 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 01/06/16 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 06/05/16 |
| Supple death wish | 03/26/16 |
| french ape spot | 01/02/17 |
| Aggressive aqua keepsake machete dilemma | 10/25/18 |
| orange love of her life | 12/10/15 |
| charcoal sickened friendly grandma | 12/10/15 |
| Transparent State Dog Poop | 12/10/15 |
| Nofapping vivacious library | 12/10/15 |
| Irradiated mentally impaired messiness | 12/15/15 |
| kink-friendly circlehead | 12/10/15 |
| violet abusive home goyim | 12/10/15 |
| tripping maize locale degenerate | 12/10/15 |
| indigo resort | 12/11/15 |
| Underhanded ruddy pit | 12/12/15 |
| Comical rigor casino | 12/16/15 |
| Wonderful bossy new version | 01/04/16 |
| floppy hall | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/11/15 |
| Heady high-end property | 12/11/15 |
| laughsome sticky useless brakes | 12/11/15 |
| indigo resort | 12/11/15 |
| lavender hell | 12/12/15 |
| Idiotic self-absorbed background story range | 01/25/16 |
| Frum foreskin point | 11/10/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/12/15 |
| cream low-t area elastic band | 12/12/15 |
| swashbuckling location goal in life | 12/12/15 |
| Pink main people | 12/12/15 |
| Bonkers haunted graveyard institution | 12/15/15 |
| pearly bawdyhouse | 12/21/15 |
| Angry center | 12/12/15 |
| Carmine Multi-colored Becky Gaming Laptop | 12/12/15 |
| razzmatazz chest-beating corn cake | 12/12/15 |
| big ratface kitty | 12/12/15 |
| sadistic faggotry | 12/12/15 |
| lascivious wild meetinghouse persian | 12/12/15 |
| violet abusive home goyim | 12/15/15 |
| violet abusive home goyim | 12/16/15 |
| Concupiscible Embarrassed To The Bone Stage Lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| spruce lodge | 12/15/15 |
| Primrose aromatic school cafeteria | 12/15/15 |
| cruel-hearted ocher sound barrier | 12/15/15 |
| Coral Sandwich Church Building | 12/15/15 |
| Flushed Theater Stage | 12/15/15 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| bearded elite parlor boiling water | 01/05/16 |
| Idiotic self-absorbed background story range | 01/25/16 |
| Cowardly bateful station | 12/17/16 |
| Free-loading Bronze Faggot Firefighter | 05/18/16 |
| Magenta anal public bath | 08/12/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 11/09/16 |
| cracking maniacal den | 11/09/16 |
| Motley Mischievous School Affirmative Action | 10/22/20 |
| shimmering mediation jap | 12/15/15 |
| chrome bull headed stag film headpube | 12/16/15 |
| puce sanctuary deer antler | 12/16/15 |
| zippy clown | 12/16/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 12/16/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 12/17/15 |
| razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy | 12/18/15 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 01/06/16 |
| Flesh hospital | 12/18/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 12/21/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 12/21/15 |
| pearly bawdyhouse | 12/21/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 12/30/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 12/30/15 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 01/04/16 |
| Wonderful bossy new version | 01/04/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 01/05/16 |
| Idiotic self-absorbed background story range | 01/25/16 |
| razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy | 01/05/16 |
| Impertinent cerebral private investor office | 01/05/16 |
| mind-boggling fantasy-prone mad-dog skullcap regret | 01/05/16 |
| Hairraiser Opaque Multi-billionaire People Who Are Hurt | 01/05/16 |
| Fluffy theatre | 01/05/16 |
| Hairraiser Opaque Multi-billionaire People Who Are Hurt | 01/05/16 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 01/06/16 |
| Hairraiser Opaque Multi-billionaire People Who Are Hurt | 01/06/16 |
| Fluffy theatre | 01/05/16 |
| Magenta anal public bath | 01/06/16 |
| pearly bawdyhouse | 01/07/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 01/08/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 01/08/16 |
| pearly bawdyhouse | 01/08/16 |
| razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy | 01/09/16 |
| pearly bawdyhouse | 01/10/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 01/18/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 01/19/16 |
| razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy | 01/21/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 01/25/16 |
| Sepia exciting pocket flask | 01/25/16 |
| Idiotic self-absorbed background story range | 01/25/16 |
| Sepia exciting pocket flask | 02/09/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 09/06/16 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 11/05/18 |
| Pale Vigorous Reading Party Philosopher-king | 01/29/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 02/01/16 |
| orchid titillating corner candlestick maker | 02/01/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 02/01/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 02/07/16 |
| Impertinent cerebral private investor office | 02/09/16 |
| Out-of-control base wrinkle | 02/09/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 02/20/16 |
| Glittery Nudist Community Account | 02/20/16 |
| Free-loading Bronze Faggot Firefighter | 02/24/16 |
| Rebellious odious kitchen | 02/24/16 |
| misunderstood site | 02/27/16 |
| Concupiscible Embarrassed To The Bone Stage Lettuce | 03/09/16 |
| Gaped talented gaping | 03/15/16 |
| Transparent State Dog Poop | 03/15/16 |
| spruce lodge | 03/16/16 |
| Salmon Greedy Market Cuckoldry | 02/24/16 |
| Cobalt thriller rehab | 02/24/16 |
| spruce lodge | 07/21/16 |
| mauve domesticated turdskin striped hyena | 02/24/16 |
| Transparent State Dog Poop | 02/27/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/02/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/04/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/09/16 |
| Impertinent cerebral private investor office | 03/09/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/15/16 |
| Free-loading Bronze Faggot Firefighter | 03/15/16 |
| smoky spectacular feces field | 03/15/16 |
| Frisky histrionic roommate piazza | 03/15/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/16/16 |
| violet abusive home goyim | 03/16/16 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 03/23/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/23/16 |
| razzmatazz chest-beating corn cake | 03/26/16 |
| pearl learning disabled house | 03/26/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/26/16 |
| bearded elite parlor boiling water | 03/28/16 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 03/28/16 |
| charcoal sickened friendly grandma | 03/28/16 |
| Magenta anal public bath | 08/12/16 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 11/05/18 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/28/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/29/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 03/29/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 03/29/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/29/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/29/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/01/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/04/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 04/15/16 |
| Vengeful Step-uncle's House | 04/15/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/19/16 |
| sapphire milk | 04/20/16 |
| beady-eyed box office antidepressant drug | 04/20/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/24/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/25/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/26/16 |
| Trip obsidian depressive | 04/26/16 |
| soul-stirring snowy indian lodge cumskin | 04/30/16 |
| Grizzly Vibrant Address | 05/01/16 |
| Grizzly Vibrant Address | 11/07/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/02/16 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 05/02/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/03/16 |
| green parlour telephone | 05/03/16 |
| racy jet-lagged pervert temple | 05/03/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/04/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 05/04/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/05/16 |
| big ratface kitty | 05/05/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 05/05/16 |
| Cobalt thriller rehab | 05/05/16 |
| cream low-t area elastic band | 05/18/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/18/16 |
| Free-loading Bronze Faggot Firefighter | 05/18/16 |
| cream low-t area elastic band | 05/18/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 05/29/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 06/20/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 06/29/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/14/16 |
| Harsh Senate Associate | 07/15/16 |
| Magenta anal public bath | 07/15/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/17/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 07/17/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/21/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/22/16 |
| Dull stirring orchestra pit doctorate | 07/22/16 |
| Dashing violent heaven mexican | 07/23/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/24/16 |
| abnormal cyan tanning salon digit ratio | 07/25/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 07/25/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 07/27/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 08/05/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 08/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 08/12/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 08/12/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 08/12/16 |
| Boyish slippery university blood rage | 08/12/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 08/30/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 08/30/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 09/06/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 09/13/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 09/14/16 |
| Angry center | 09/14/16 |
| Bistre Potus Stead | 09/15/16 |
| submissive set dragon | 09/15/16 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 09/15/16 |
| Provocative Dingle Berry | 09/15/16 |
| twisted crotch nowag | 09/15/16 |
| curious national travel guidebook | 09/19/16 |
| curious national travel guidebook | 09/19/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 09/27/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 09/24/16 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 09/27/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 09/27/16 |
| violet abusive home goyim | 09/27/16 |
| rambunctious plum really tough guy | 10/08/16 |
| Purple international law enforcement agency | 07/29/24 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 09/28/16 |
| Angry center | 09/28/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 09/28/16 |
| beady-eyed box office antidepressant drug | 09/28/16 |
| Vengeful Step-uncle's House | 09/28/16 |
| Excitant rusted toaster | 10/08/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 10/09/16 |
| 180 prole | 10/09/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 10/09/16 |
| dark fighting native | 10/09/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 10/10/16 |
| abnormal cyan tanning salon digit ratio | 10/30/16 |
| Magenta anal public bath | 11/01/16 |
| Provocative Dingle Berry | 11/01/16 |
| Charismatic shivering abode scourge upon the earth | 11/02/16 |
| cruel-hearted ocher sound barrier | 11/02/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 11/07/16 |
| Silver galvanic business firm sneaky criminal | 11/08/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 11/08/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/08/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 11/08/16 |
| adventurous milky marketing idea | 11/08/16 |
| Electric ultramarine ticket booth patrolman | 11/08/16 |
| orchid titillating corner candlestick maker | 11/08/16 |
| curious national travel guidebook | 11/08/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/08/16 |
| contagious plaza knife | 11/09/16 |
| Bistre Potus Stead | 11/09/16 |
| overrated jew | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Provocative Dingle Berry | 11/09/16 |
| contagious plaza knife | 11/09/16 |
| abnormal cyan tanning salon digit ratio | 11/09/16 |
| big ratface kitty | 11/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac lilac stage | 12/03/16 |
| Frum foreskin point | 12/07/16 |
| Cowardly bateful station | 12/17/16 |
| arousing hissy fit lay | 10/11/24 |
| passionate emerald tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| at-the-ready stain | 11/09/16 |
| lake brunch halford | 11/09/16 |
| translucent national security agency | 11/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac lilac stage | 11/09/16 |
| Magenta anal public bath | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| cream low-t area elastic band | 11/09/16 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse locus | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| self-centered fanboi fat ankles | 11/09/16 |
| Bisexual Preventive Strike | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Nofapping vivacious library | 11/09/16 |
| Flesh hospital | 11/10/16 |
| Sepia exciting pocket flask | 11/10/16 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 11/10/16 |
| cerise menage | 11/10/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/10/16 |
| Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm | 11/10/16 |
| Glittery Nudist Community Account | 11/10/16 |
| curious national travel guidebook | 11/14/16 |
| painfully honest onyx cruise ship idea he suggested | 11/14/16 |
| Navy soggy stock car | 12/04/16 |
| Cowardly bateful station | 12/17/16 |
| arousing hissy fit lay | 10/11/24 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/25/16 |
| big-titted kitty cat gas station | 12/03/16 |
| dark fighting native | 12/04/16 |
| Toilet Seat Hominid | 12/07/16 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 12/07/16 |
| big-titted kitty cat gas station | 12/07/16 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 01/02/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 01/02/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 03/03/20 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 01/02/17 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 01/16/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/20/17 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 01/20/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/23/17 |
| Excitant rusted toaster | 01/23/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/23/17 |
| walnut violent whorehouse laser beams | 01/23/17 |
| Excitant rusted toaster | 01/23/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/23/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/25/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 01/26/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 02/06/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 02/13/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 02/27/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 05/03/17 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/03/17 |
| khaki nursing home boltzmann | 09/21/17 |
| Transparent State Dog Poop | 01/23/17 |
| Provocative Dingle Berry | 02/27/17 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 03/22/17 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 04/17/17 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/08/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 06/20/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 08/10/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 10/15/17 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 10/15/17 |
| Glassy Offensive Newt | 10/15/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/06/17 |
| claret garrison trump supporter | 11/06/17 |
| Irate Mahogany Shrine Dysfunction | 11/08/17 |
| saffron macaca mother | 11/08/17 |
| carnelian son of senegal space | 11/13/17 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 12/18/17 |
| Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund | 12/18/17 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 12/18/17 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 01/30/18 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 06/01/18 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/18/18 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 07/19/18 |
| twisted crotch nowag | 09/20/18 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 09/25/18 |
| charcoal sickened friendly grandma | 10/06/18 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 10/06/18 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 10/25/18 |
| submissive set dragon | 10/25/18 |
| Idiotic self-absorbed background story range | 11/05/18 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 11/05/18 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 11/05/18 |
| Razzle Crackhouse | 11/05/18 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 01/08/19 |
| medicated church coffee pot | 02/23/19 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 03/13/19 |
| Idiotic self-absorbed background story range | 06/24/19 |
| Cocky Misanthropic Athletic Conference Theater | 06/24/19 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 11/18/19 |
| Provocative Dingle Berry | 02/12/20 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 02/12/20 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 03/24/20 |
| ebony windowlicker | 03/24/20 |
| Harsh Senate Associate | 04/04/20 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 04/26/20 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 05/13/20 |
| Harsh Senate Associate | 06/05/20 |
| tantric | 06/05/20 |
| Harsh Senate Associate | 09/09/20 |
| Provocative Dingle Berry | 09/09/20 |
| orange love of her life | 09/09/20 |
| Sable Immigrant | 09/12/20 |
| Know-it-all azn tank | 09/24/20 |
| Cocky Misanthropic Athletic Conference Theater | 10/09/20 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 10/10/20 |
| Filthpig | 10/22/20 |
| aphrodisiac lilac stage | 10/22/20 |
| Motley Mischievous School Affirmative Action | 10/22/20 |
| Motley Mischievous School Affirmative Action | 10/22/20 |
| slap-happy well-lubricated | 03/23/22 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 10/27/20 |
| Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig | 10/27/20 |
| Cocky Misanthropic Athletic Conference Theater | 10/30/20 |
| lime shaky legal warrant | 11/03/20 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/22/22 |
| zombie-like swollen | 03/23/22 |
| Crawly alpha indirect expression | 03/23/22 |
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| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 07/25/22 |
| orange love of her life | 07/25/22 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 10/23/22 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 11/16/22 |
| Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker | 04/25/23 |
| cream low-t area elastic band | 04/25/23 |
| Know-it-all azn tank | 04/29/23 |
| Purple international law enforcement agency | 05/28/23 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 02/22/24 |
| Know-it-all azn tank | 02/23/24 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 05/23/24 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 08/26/24 |
| Know-it-all azn tank | 09/13/24 |
| orange love of her life | 09/13/24 |
| Know-it-all azn tank | 10/18/24 |
| arousing hissy fit lay | 10/11/24 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 11/06/24 |
| big ratface kitty | 03/04/25 |
| big ratface kitty | 03/04/25 |
| twisted crotch nowag | 03/04/25 |
| arousing hissy fit lay | 03/04/25 |
| internet-worthy black woman | 03/04/25 |
| citrine | 03/05/25 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/07/25 |
| White Psychic | 03/07/25 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/08/25 |
| Brilliant useless | 03/08/25 |
| exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe | 03/08/25 |
| Transparent State Dog Poop | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: marvelous twinkling trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Razzle Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532846) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: violet abusive home goyim Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: tripping maize locale degenerate Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: indigo resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Underhanded ruddy pit Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Comical rigor casino Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Wonderful bossy new version Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Pink main people March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: lascivious wild meetinghouse persian Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: violet abusive home goyim OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: violet abusive home goyim And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Concupiscible Embarrassed To The Bone Stage Lettuce 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: spruce lodge fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Primrose aromatic school cafeteria I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: cruel-hearted ocher sound barrier 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Coral Sandwich Church Building February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Flushed Theater Stage You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384262) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: cracking maniacal den Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Motley Mischievous School Affirmative Action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167037) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Flesh hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: pearly bawdyhouse 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Wonderful bossy new version flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Idiotic self-absorbed background story range Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Hairraiser Opaque Multi-billionaire People Who Are Hurt An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Fluffy theatre 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Hairraiser Opaque Multi-billionaire People Who Are Hurt I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Fluffy theatre No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531557) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: pearly bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: pearly bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: razzle-dazzle rough-skinned therapy looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Grizzly Vibrant Address Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Grizzly Vibrant Address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825048) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: cream low-t area elastic band This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Free-loading Bronze Faggot Firefighter In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: cream low-t area elastic band cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Harsh Senate Associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Magenta anal public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Dull stirring orchestra pit doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Dashing violent heaven mexican Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: abnormal cyan tanning salon digit ratio Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Boyish slippery university blood rage LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Angry center Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Bistre Potus Stead September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: submissive set dragon September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Razzle Crackhouse god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Provocative Dingle Berry XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: twisted crotch nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: curious national travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: curious national travel guidebook The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: violet abusive home goyim This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: rambunctious plum really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Purple international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Angry center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: beady-eyed box office antidepressant drug This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Vengeful Step-uncle's House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Excitant rusted toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: 180 prole Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: dark fighting native half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: abnormal cyan tanning salon digit ratio close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Magenta anal public bath Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Provocative Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Charismatic shivering abode scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: cruel-hearted ocher sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Silver galvanic business firm sneaky criminal You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Electric ultramarine ticket booth patrolman Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Bistre Potus Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Provocative Dingle Berry GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848608) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Frum foreskin point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cowardly bateful station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: arousing hissy fit lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: lake brunch halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: translucent national security agency 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: aphrodisiac lilac stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Magenta anal public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: cream low-t area elastic band this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Diverse locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Bisexual Preventive Strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Nofapping vivacious library you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Sepia exciting pocket flask Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Razzle Crackhouse bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Turquoise principal's office pisswyrm ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Glittery Nudist Community Account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: curious national travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: painfully honest onyx cruise ship idea he suggested They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Navy soggy stock car Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cowardly bateful station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: arousing hissy fit lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: big-titted kitty cat gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: dark fighting native GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Toilet Seat Hominid https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Razzle Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: big-titted kitty cat gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Razzle Crackhouse truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Excitant rusted toaster TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: walnut violent whorehouse laser beams I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Excitant rusted toaster it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: khaki nursing home boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Transparent State Dog Poop this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Provocative Dingle Berry One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Glassy Offensive Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: claret garrison trump supporter credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Irate Mahogany Shrine Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: saffron macaca mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: carnelian son of senegal space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Crystalline Appetizing Trust Fund Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Razzle Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: twisted crotch nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: charcoal sickened friendly grandma It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Razzle Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: submissive set dragon Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Idiotic self-absorbed background story range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Razzle Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Razzle Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: medicated church coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Idiotic self-absorbed background story range There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Cocky Misanthropic Athletic Conference Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Provocative Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: ebony windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Harsh Senate Associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Harsh Senate Associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: tantric (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Harsh Senate Associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Provocative Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: orange love of her life Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Sable Immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Know-it-all azn tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Cocky Misanthropic Athletic Conference Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: aphrodisiac lilac stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Motley Mischievous School Affirmative Action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Motley Mischievous School Affirmative Action https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: slap-happy well-lubricated (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Impressive fragrant chapel rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Cocky Misanthropic Athletic Conference Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: lime shaky legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: zombie-like swollen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Crawly alpha indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: sexy hateful 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: orange love of her life A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Aquamarine Stimulating Weed Whacker https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: cream low-t area elastic band why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Know-it-all azn tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Purple international law enforcement agency FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Know-it-all azn tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Know-it-all azn tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: orange love of her life One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Know-it-all azn tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: arousing hissy fit lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: big ratface kitty 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: big ratface kitty https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: twisted crotch nowag Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: arousing hissy fit lay The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: internet-worthy black woman He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: citrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: White Psychic 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Brilliant useless Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: exhilarant flirting forum sweet tailpipe Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Transparent State Dog Poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |