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Will home prices still go up and up despite rising mortgage rates
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:25 AM Author: chartreuse 180 theater wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987839) |
Date: February 18th, 2022 9:36 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness the "yes" case is that its still cheap for blackrock et al to keep buying en masse and fewer homes will be available because people either won't want to take on a higher rate on a new place or won't want to take a hit on the sale of their current one if they are recent buyers.
the "no" case is that a bunch of people rush to sell in the next year or two to lock in their gains which turns into a cascade. but then there's blackrock et al to buy it all up. |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:39 AM Author: chartreuse 180 theater wrinkle What’s the argument that black rock etc won’t buy it up in the no case?
This assumes a general healthy economy not a big overall crash. What does a big overall crash do? Still black rock ? |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:53 AM Author: Electric Gaped Tank Black Woman The argument for blackrock to buy fewer houses in the "no" scenario is that it's becoming a crappy long-term investment given relatively low population growth of the past two decades (and likely even lower growth going forward), boomers dying off in the next 10 years, and the residential building frenzy over the past 3 years finally producing enough supply. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987966) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:56 AM Author: Charcoal odious office Seems like boomers dying off has got to be a huge effect at some point soon with housing. Boomers are going to be in their 80s in a few years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987978) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:57 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness no one wants their suburban mcmansions. it's urban housing that's driving the entire thing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987985) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:21 AM Author: honey-headed resort Once the bulk of millennials are raising school aged kids this will change and is already starting. Big city school districts were all ready pure shit (arguably with the exception of NYC) and the pandemic made them considerably worse. It’s becoming a “move to the suburbs in your late 30s/for your second house” stage.
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/are-millennials-leaving-cities-yes-young-adults-are-not |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:36 AM Author: twinkling high-end kitchen pervert i don't think this is true anymore. millenials are becoming their parents and after having kids are realizing the benefits of having more space and good schools over access to a wider variety of restaurants. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988172) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:00 AM Author: Electric Gaped Tank Black Woman I'm of the firm belief that this is the last hurrah for housing. It's a bit of a contrarian take and it seems crazy given what appears to be a supply problem but the population growth and TFR trends seem pretty clear to me. Other countries that went through this saw real estate values plummet over time. We're headed toward a Japan and europe (continental) market. Adjusted for inflation their real estate has largely been a shitty investment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988001) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:09 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness its the last hurrah for america. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988046) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:15 AM Author: Charcoal odious office I agree - birth rates tell a big story that isn't being told. America has less than replacement rate until you add immigration at which point it's barely over 2.0. I just don't see where all the future demand comes from. Europe is even more concerning with birth rates, I think every single country there has less than 2.0 birth rate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988070) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:24 AM Author: honey-headed resort It’s downstream from jobs and wages which is super hard to predict right now and schools which are reliably shitty and good ones are even more likely to be scarce. If tech rebounds and continues to pay well and wfh takes full root there’s a lot of housing upside left just in buying up boomers’ old houses that haven’t been updated in good school districts. Banks will lose money on the shitty houses no one wants but there will be real estate that continues appreciating and that the UMC still covets and pays top dollar to get. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988121) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:12 AM Author: Mildly autistic garnet jewess mexican i think homes in phoenix will continue to rise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988348) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 5:08 PM Author: honey-headed resort I would think wfh would be very bad for Phoenix. But maybe it just lets everyone in Phoenix leave for the summer? Not sure but I can imagine picking Phoenix if I had a job I could do from anywhere in the world. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43990356) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 12:29 PM Author: Amber gay wizard property how do you bet on this view. rent? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988978) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:55 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness sure at some point they stop buying, but given what inflation looks like they've decided that buying at any price and renting it out over 10 years is a great deal. rents are skyrocketing and building isn't happening nearly quick enough in high demand cities.
i guess the no case is that if price depreciation is rapid enough, people/blackrock withhold purchases in anticipation of further decreases. but again, blackrock is in it for the rents, not the equity (though that's certainly part of their calculation). |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:49 AM Author: Electric Gaped Tank Black Woman big investors like blackrock are just following the market, and not market drivers. I doubt investors/flippers make up more than 20% of the single-family home market and almost all of that 20% is mom-and-pop operations that would most definitely feel the pinch of higher rates. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987938) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 9:58 AM Author: Charcoal odious office I think they do for a little while just because there's so much demand still with little going on the market.
But there has never been more new inventory that's been built that's about to come on the market before. |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:17 AM Author: Hairraiser doobsian partner no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988075) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:17 AM Author: Heady Indecent Yarmulke What are prices doing in Ohio and the Rust Belt? Places with declining populations like Buffalo. I assume they are aren't going up right?
What about Chicago, St. Louis and Cincinatti?
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:22 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness there is hope that widespread wfh leads to a rust belt and rural revival. COL is astoundingly cheap in much of america but there are no jobs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988107) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:30 AM Author: chartreuse 180 theater wrinkle what about desirable markets? are there different rules for them? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988146) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:31 AM Author: narrow-minded meetinghouse home prices should go up.
boomers bought homes for 200k that went up to a million dollars in 20 years. they built all that equity and screwed the next generation.
millennials who bought for a million are therefore entitled to $5m homes in 20 years. |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:36 AM Author: twinkling high-end kitchen pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988175) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:08 AM Author: jet domesticated hall stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988330) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:40 AM Author: Soggy Rose Hospital there are certain markets that will never decline, like SF or LA. but yeah the morons that spent $1m to live in boise are fucked though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988189) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:41 AM Author: Exhilarant Round Eye (definitely not CA trolling) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988191) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:45 AM Author: Soggy Rose Hospital real estate is just hyper fucking local. this thread is stupid. demographic trends here in LA are extremely favorable to long-term price increases. even a massive earthquake would be a temporary blip at this point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988202) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:02 AM Author: Khaki Alcoholic Sanctuary Candlestick Maker Dis.
The only new houses being built in LA are teardowns. There's literally no more room for large scale new subdivisions due to planning regs.
But I want to cash out and leave the state before the long overdue great earthquake hits. |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:42 AM Author: rambunctious sweet tailpipe SF is the only market that’s down from a few years ago. Are you talking about South Bay? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988596) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 12:09 PM Author: Soggy Rose Hospital https://29y1pu2xvdbzd0g2823sa275-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Bay-Area-Housing-Market-Trends-1.jpg
look at the y/y change. that's despite it being disproportionately affected by tech workers fleeing to cheaper less insane places |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:45 AM Author: umber mental disorder Rates are going up... Each 1% change in interest rates means an extra 40% in interest costs over 30 yrs.
Houses are being built at a breakneck pace, the most in 50 yrs.
https://twitter.com/BobOnMarkets/status/1494310471561793540/photo/1
Population is stagnant or increasing at slowest rate in US history.
Long term, this is not a good combination. Maybe these factors will just destroy ridiculous housing bubbles in SF, Seattle, LA, etc., and not bring prices down across the country, buy who knows. |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:46 AM Author: Exhilarant Round Eye flame. nobody sticks to one mortgage for 30 years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988204) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:48 AM Author: umber mental disorder Fair, but $300K borrowed @ 3% is $1250/mo, 4% is $1450 and 5% is $1600/mo. An extra $200/mo. might not sound like a lot, but a lot of buyers will get pwned by debt-to-income ratios and get priced out of the market, resulting in lower demand. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988225) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 10:46 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness the problem with these boom cities is that they all have ridiculous zoning laws and other impediments to development. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988207) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:46 AM Author: Galvanic Foreskin Philosopher-king LA allows any homeowner to build an ADU on their property without any zoning. They also just passed something that lets you split the lot into two without a zoning change and put two houses plus 2 ADU on each lot. So you can change a single family home into a fourplex. I'm thinking about building an ADU on my MIL's property I rent to her. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988628) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:02 AM Author: Khaki Alcoholic Sanctuary Candlestick Maker Ultimately, yes. Maybe a temporary dip or stagnation but will continue rising with inflation/interest rates. Hope your income keeps up!
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:06 AM Author: Slap-happy Reading Party Newt So current homeowners should be ok, right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988317) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:09 AM Author: Khaki Alcoholic Sanctuary Candlestick Maker Sit tight. Enjoy your low interest rates. Watch inflation whore away your mortgage payments while inflating the value of your house.
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:28 AM Author: Slap-happy Reading Party Newt Ty. Glad I bought before the storm hits (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988465) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:40 AM Author: chartreuse 180 theater wrinkle what if we just bought in this huge bubble with high prices but with low rates? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988568) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:43 AM Author: twinkling high-end kitchen pervert long term you will be fine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988602) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:45 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness ironically, if you took out a huge mortgage and you don't plan on leaving, you're sitting pretty. the all cash buyers and flippers, not so much. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988618) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:46 AM Author: twinkling high-end kitchen pervert damn. makes me wish i took a bigger mortgage. i only owe like $430k. Am i fucked? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988629) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:47 AM Author: thriller snowy messiness you should be fine. your payments will stay the same and your salary should increase (lol!) with inflation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988642) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 12:04 PM Author: chartreuse 180 theater wrinkle taking a huge mortgage and it's a long term bet.
my salary isnt going up tho |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 11:08 AM Author: jet domesticated hall stain All depends on locality. Some of the places with the highest demand are systemically low on housing so prices will remain high.
But flyovers who didn't sell when prices were 1.5-2x what they should be are really going to miss out. |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 12:11 PM Author: clear beady-eyed chapel azn Mine went up $60K (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988862) |
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Date: February 18th, 2022 12:29 PM Author: Duck-like know-it-all parlor now that covid is over, and no reason not to sally forth, there is just too much cash out there looking for a place to call home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988977) |