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ITT: $50 prize for most accurate election prediction (gunneratttt)

rules: (1) you must predict the outcome of the seven key ...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/29/24
fun idea
Disrespectful Incel Boltzmann
  10/29/24
A triumph.
Bipolar bistre area
  10/29/24
This! A rare “Scholarly Triumph.”
Avocado legal warrant pocket flask
  10/29/24
...
duck-like kitchen
  10/29/24
...
Bipolar bistre area
  10/29/24
...
Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting
  11/04/24
Edited version! NATIONAL: Harris +2.5 NC: Trump +0.2 ...
Adulterous coldplay fan jap
  10/29/24
Juan Eighty
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
https://www.270towin.com/maps/W7vvm NPV: TRUMP +2.1 NC: TR...
MASE
  10/29/24
lol
doobsian native
  11/04/24
MASE
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
NATIONAL: TRUMP +2.8 NC: KAMALA +2.4 GA: TRUMP 3.4 ...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/29/24
Ah gotta point the states. I gotta think about it for awhile...
MASE
  10/29/24
ty. yeah i'm planning on revising mine but wanted to make su...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/29/24
Bold. NC seems wrong tho.
Bipolar bistre area
  10/30/24
this is mostly a placeholder to give an example for particip...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/30/24
gunneratttt
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
Date: October 29th, 2024 4:37 PM Author: Last day in 2024 T...
Bipolar bistre area
  11/05/24
NATIONAL: Kamala +3 Georgia: Kamala +1 Michigan: Kamal...
ultramarine irradiated field
  10/29/24
this is the insane libquotemo and has been granted an except...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/29/24
libpumo
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
this is how you do it doobs
Magenta university
  10/29/24
i assume the winner will use a throwaway. if there are multi...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/29/24
...
marvelous roast beef hissy fit
  10/29/24
...
dark step-uncle's house
  10/29/24
...
bisexual pungent temple masturbator
  10/29/24
Lmao
Avocado legal warrant pocket flask
  10/29/24
...
Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting
  10/30/24
...
MASE
  11/04/24
NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.8 NC: TRUMP +2.6 GA: TRUMP +2.8 ...
Bipolar bistre area
  10/29/24
Historical American tp [HAtp]
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
180 contest friend
bisexual pungent temple masturbator
  10/29/24
180 moniker
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  10/30/24
...
brass mischievous factory reset button theater stage
  11/05/24
(1) Trump 306 EV's Kamala 232 EV's Trump wins NC...
Violent exhilarant boiling water
  10/29/24
...
Violent exhilarant boiling water
  11/04/24
Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
why do so few of the politicsmos who spend many hours here p...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/01/24
NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.2 NC: KAMALA +0.2 GA: TRUMP +3.7...
charismatic spruce goal in life parlour
  11/01/24
Kamala winning NC is lolzy but not bad otherwise
MASE
  11/01/24
She's not winning NC
Bipolar bistre area
  11/01/24
NATIONAL: Harris +3.0 NC: Trump +0.5 GA: Trump +0.5 ...
fluffy bawdyhouse
  11/01/24
You're going to the chipper. Tick, tock.
Bipolar bistre area
  11/01/24
LathamTouchedMe
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
Don't want the money but: NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.5 NC: TRUMP...
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/01/24
Red Tsunami You forgot to add Senate R 55 D 45 too
Bipolar bistre area
  11/01/24
Obviously I'm nervous. Anything can happen. But the blackpil...
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/01/24
I've said this before and I will say it again. This may soun...
Bipolar bistre area
  11/01/24
...
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/01/24
askav
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
libs?
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/06/24
NATIONAL: Harris +4.1 MI: Harris +2.7 GA: Harris: +1.0 PA...
Excitant elastic band national
  11/01/24
Choke on one faggit
Bipolar bistre area
  11/01/24
Many Cocks Spewing Gallons of Cum This Very Second
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.4 NC: TRUMP +1.5 GA: TRUMP +2.9 ...
Insanely creepy theatre
  11/01/24
Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle [TSINAH]
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
National: Kam +3.0 NC Kam .1 AZ Drumpf .1 PA Kam .1 WI K...
Razzle-dazzle Slippery Abode
  11/04/24
Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband [EPAH]
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
Aren't you supposed to quote-tweet it so that we can't make ...
Razzle-dazzle Slippery Abode
  11/04/24
"(3) on the morning of 11/5 i will quote reply to all e...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.8 NC: TRUMP +1 GA: TRUMP +2.5 ...
heady deer antler
  11/04/24
good prediction
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/04/24
i don't think this is right, but it could be!
heady deer antler
  11/05/24
Zurich is Stained
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
NATIONAL: KAMALALA +1.0 NC: KAMALA +0.5 GA: TRUMP +2.3...
Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting
  11/04/24
Cornel West
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/04/24
NATIONAL: Harris +1.8 NC: Trump +0.9 GA: Trump +0.6 ...
vermilion wonderful heaven
  11/05/24
Drunkard
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
allowing this late entry on the strength of the sudo. at my ...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
Thx. You did say morning I figured 5am was sufficiently ear...
vermilion wonderful heaven
  11/05/24
...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
https://ibb.co/3pszb7d DEMS: 317 REP: 221 NATIONAL:...
Slate affirmative action
  11/05/24
monikers? i've seen you poast but don't know what you switch...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
...
Slate affirmative action
  11/05/24
ricky
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/05/24
...
Magenta university
  11/05/24
should have been more aggressive
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/05/24
libs?
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/05/24
I'm gonna get yo ass
Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting
  11/05/24
i went high on my predictions and i think ill even have unde...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/06/24
...
vermilion wonderful heaven
  11/06/24
...
contagious narrow-minded macaca
  11/06/24
i accidentally left in Kamala on NC but it should be clear f...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/06/24
counting and tabulation begins: https://www.xoxohth.com/t...
Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability
  11/13/24


Poast new message in this thread



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:22 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

rules:

(1) you must predict the outcome of the seven key swing states (NC, GA, AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA) plus that popular vote via how many points the candidate you choose will win by to the first decimal (e.g. trump +1.5).

(1)(a) predictions must be made for *EACH SWING STATE* in terms of margin of victory as well as the national popular vote. see my vote for an example: https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&mc=6&forum_id=2#48255079

(1)(b) votes must be made in a top level comment, not a reply.

(2) your final score is based on the cumulative gap between you prediction and the actual result. (e.g. predicted trump +0.3, actual result kamala +1.0 = +1.3 added to your total). correctly picking the winning candidate does not earn additional points.

(3) on the morning of 11/5 i will quote reply to all eligible votes.

(4) revising your prediction is permitted, my quote reply will be considered your final prediction.

(5) the winner will be announced when vote rolls are certified. i will post the winner and award the prize after 24 hours. during that time appeals can be made (e.g. i fucked up the math), however i will be the sole arbiter in selecting the winner.

(6) only recognizable sudos may participate. i will comment if i don't think you're are eligible, and will hear appeals, but will be the sole arbiter of deciding a poaster's eligibility.

(6)(a) i will only comment on your eligibility if you have both made a valid vote and i believe you are ineligible. if you wish to confirm whether your vote is sufficient and you are eligible, you may do so, and i will respond.

(7) i will make a prediction but am ineligible to win.

(8) in the unlikely event of a tie, the prize will be split.

(9) the prize will be in the form of an AMEX or VISA gift card delivered via email on my throwaway.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255021)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:23 PM
Author: Disrespectful Incel Boltzmann

fun idea

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255025)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:30 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

A triumph.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255057)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:39 PM
Author: Avocado legal warrant pocket flask

This! A rare “Scholarly Triumph.”

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255866)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:40 PM
Author: duck-like kitchen



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255872)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:40 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255873)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 1:47 PM
Author: Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48280910)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:25 PM
Author: Adulterous coldplay fan jap

Edited version!

NATIONAL: Harris +2.5

NC: Trump +0.2

GA: Trump +0.7

AZ: Trump +1.5

NV: Harris +0.3

WI: Harris +2.0

MI: Harris +3.0

PA: Harris +0.5



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255035)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:47 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Juan Eighty

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:25 PM

Author: Juan Eighty

Edited version!

NATIONAL: Harris +2.5

NC: Trump +0.2

GA: Trump +0.7

AZ: Trump +1.5

NV: Harris +0.3

WI: Harris +2.0

MI: Harris +3.0

PA: Harris +0.5

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282333)



Reply
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:26 PM
Author: MASE

https://www.270towin.com/maps/W7vvm

NPV: TRUMP +2.1

NC: TRUMP +5.2

GA: TRUMP +4.2

AZ: TRUMP +5.5

NV: TRUMP +2.4

WI: TRUMP +3.2

MI: TRUMP +2.9

PA: TRUMP +4.0

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255039)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 1:49 PM
Author: doobsian native

lol

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48280918)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:47 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: MASE

https://www.270towin.com/maps/W7vvm

NPV: TRUMP +2.1

NC: TRUMP +5.2

GA: TRUMP +4.2

AZ: TRUMP +5.5

NV: TRUMP +2.4

WI: TRUMP +3.2

MI: TRUMP +2.9

PA: TRUMP +4.0



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282336)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:37 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

NATIONAL: TRUMP +2.8

NC: KAMALA +2.4

GA: TRUMP 3.4

AZ: TRUMP +7.5

NV: TRUMP +4.1

WI: TRUMP +1.8

MI: TRUMP +2.7

PA: TRUMP +3.1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255079)



Reply
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:39 PM
Author: MASE

Ah gotta point the states. I gotta think about it for awhile then.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255087)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:42 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

ty. yeah i'm planning on revising mine but wanted to make sure i had an example set.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255093)



Reply

Date: October 30th, 2024 2:20 AM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

Bold. NC seems wrong tho.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48257465)



Reply

Date: October 30th, 2024 11:27 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

this is mostly a placeholder to give an example for participants. planning on adjusting it monday.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48258492)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:47 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: gunneratttt

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:37 PM

Author: Trump's Fatified Margin of Victory (gunneratttt)

NATIONAL: TRUMP +2.8

NC: KAMALA +2.4

GA: TRUMP 3.4

AZ: TRUMP +7.5

NV: TRUMP +4.1

WI: TRUMP +1.8

MI: TRUMP +2.7

PA: TRUMP +3.1



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282340)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 10:45 AM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

Date: October 29th, 2024 4:37 PM

Author: Last day in 2024 Trump isn't POTUS elect (gunneratttt)

NATIONAL: TRUMP +2.8

NC: KAMALA +2.4

GA: TRUMP 3.4

AZ: TRUMP +7.5

NV: TRUMP +4.1

WI: TRUMP +1.8

MI: TRUMP +2.7

PA: TRUMP +3.1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48285859)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 5:26 PM
Author: ultramarine irradiated field

NATIONAL: Kamala +3

Georgia: Kamala +1

Michigan: Kamala +4

Nevada: Trump +1

North Carolina: tied

Pennsylvania: Kamala +1

Wisconsin: Kamala +2

Nebraska-2: Kamala +9

States that are closer than usual: Kansas, Alaska, Nebraska.



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255285)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 5:28 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

this is the insane libquotemo and has been granted an exception to the recognizable sudo rule

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618020&mc=129&forum_id=2#48255273

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255303)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:48 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: libpumo

NATIONAL: Kamala +3

Georgia: Kamala +1

Michigan: Kamala +4

Nevada: Trump +1

North Carolina: tied

Pennsylvania: Kamala +1

Wisconsin: Kamala +2

Nebraska-2: Kamala +9

States that are closer than usual: Kansas, Alaska, Nebrask

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282343)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 5:31 PM
Author: Magenta university

this is how you do it doobs

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255317)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 5:34 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

i assume the winner will use a throwaway. if there are multiple claimants i can just email them each something unique and see which one the winning sudo poasts.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255329)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:28 PM
Author: marvelous roast beef hissy fit



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255792)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:37 PM
Author: dark step-uncle's house



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255848)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:40 PM
Author: bisexual pungent temple masturbator



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255869)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:41 PM
Author: Avocado legal warrant pocket flask

Lmao

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255878)



Reply

Date: October 30th, 2024 11:28 AM
Author: Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48258495)



Reply
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:15 PM
Author: MASE



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48280794)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 6:11 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.8

NC: TRUMP +2.6

GA: TRUMP +2.8

AZ: TRUMP +4.1

NV: TRUMP +1.9

WI: TRUMP +0.7

MI: TRUMP +0.4

PA: TRUMP +1.9

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255449)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:48 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Historical American tp [HAtp]

Date: October 29th, 2024 6:11 PM

Author: River of Blood

NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.8

NC: TRUMP +2.6

GA: TRUMP +2.8

AZ: TRUMP +4.1

NV: TRUMP +1.9

WI: TRUMP +0.7

MI: TRUMP +0.4

PA: TRUMP +1.9

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282346)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 6:18 PM
Author: bisexual pungent temple masturbator

180 contest friend

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255460)



Reply

Date: October 30th, 2024 11:28 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

180 moniker

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48258496)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 10:48 AM
Author: brass mischievous factory reset button theater stage



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48285883)



Reply

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:15 PM
Author: Violent exhilarant boiling water

(1) Trump 306 EV's

Kamala 232 EV's

Trump wins NC, AZ, GA, PA, MI, and WI. Kamala retains NV

Popular vote: Trump +0.1

(1)(a) NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.1

NC: TRUMP +1.2

GA: TRUMP +2.5

AZ: TRUMP +2.8

NV: HARRIS +2.2

WI: TRUMP +0.7

MI: TRUMP +1.5

PA: TRUMP +2.1

(1)(b)√

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48255732)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 12:49 AM
Author: Violent exhilarant boiling water



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48278645)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:48 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard

Date: October 29th, 2024 7:15 PM

Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard

(1) Trump 306 EV's

Kamala 232 EV's

Trump wins NC, AZ, GA, PA, MI, and WI. Kamala retains NV

Popular vote: Trump +0.1

(1)(a) NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.1

NC: TRUMP +1.2

GA: TRUMP +2.5

AZ: TRUMP +2.8

NV: HARRIS +2.2

WI: TRUMP +0.7

MI: TRUMP +1.5

PA: TRUMP +2.1

(1)(b)√

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282350)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 11:23 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

why do so few of the politicsmos who spend many hours here predicting the election outcome not want to make a solid prediction for this fun little contest i'm hosting?

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48267528)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 11:27 AM
Author: charismatic spruce goal in life parlour

NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.2

NC: KAMALA +0.2

GA: TRUMP +3.7

AZ: TRUMP +3.9

NV: TRUMP +1.4

WI: TRUMP +0.7

MI: KAMALA +1.5

PA: TRUMP +0.4

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48267545)



Reply
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:29 AM
Author: MASE

Kamala winning NC is lolzy but not bad otherwise

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48267564)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:09 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

She's not winning NC

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270145)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 2:28 PM
Author: fluffy bawdyhouse

NATIONAL: Harris +3.0

NC: Trump +0.5

GA: Trump +0.5

AZ: Trump +1.0

NV: Trump +1.5

WI: Harris +1.0

MI: Harris +2.0

PA: Harris +1.0

This is from my heart, because I cannot write what I fear may really come to pass.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48268396)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:09 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

You're going to the chipper. Tick, tock.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270143)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:49 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: LathamTouchedMe

Date: November 1st, 2024 2:28 PM

Author: LathamTouchedMe

NATIONAL: Harris +3.0

NC: Trump +0.5

GA: Trump +0.5

AZ: Trump +1.0

NV: Trump +1.5

WI: Harris +1.0

MI: Harris +2.0

PA: Harris +1.0

This is from my heart, because I cannot write what I fear may really come to pass.



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282352)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:20 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca

Don't want the money but:

NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.5

NC: TRUMP +4.0

GA: TRUMP +1.6

AZ: TRUMP +4.9

NV: TRUMP +3.6

WI: TRUMP +0.3

MI: TRUMP +1.5

PA: TRUMP +1.1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270175)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:28 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

Red Tsunami

You forgot to add Senate R 55 D 45 too

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270209)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:31 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca

Obviously I'm nervous. Anything can happen. But the blackpill sentiment on XO makes NO sense to me. At all.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270214)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:38 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

I've said this before and I will say it again. This may sound incredibly stupid, but here goes. I believe that something has Happened. In other words, I believe the Electorate has broadly made a concrete decision. We just can't detect it yet and may not even know until a week from now. In the era of smart phones we think everything is knowable instantly, but this is just one of those things where it's impossible to predict the individual opinions of 150 million people writing down a secret answer locked in a box not to be opened until Tuesday night. Nobody knows. It's wholly unknowable.

I think the most likely scenario is that Trump wins the Electoral College. Anecdotally I know normies who have already voted for him who aren't right wing people at all. I think Kamala is a bad candidate and enthusiasm is low. But I could be wrong. Maybe all her people turn out and she hangs on to the blue wall states. My point is I think everyone has decided already and there will be a broad trend across the electorate and I think America will get some closure one way or the other. Yes, Kamala could win, but I think too many working class normies are fed up. Just seems like we're going to get a Big Result next week no matter how long it takes.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270233)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:40 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270239)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:49 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: askav

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:20 PM

Author: askav

Don't want the money but:

NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.5

NC: TRUMP +4.0

GA: TRUMP +1.6

AZ: TRUMP +4.9

NV: TRUMP +3.6

WI: TRUMP +0.3

MI: TRUMP +1.5

PA: TRUMP +1.1



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282354)



Reply

Date: November 6th, 2024 12:09 AM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca

libs?

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48294565)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:36 PM
Author: Excitant elastic band national

NATIONAL: Harris +4.1

MI: Harris +2.7

GA: Harris: +1.0

PA: Harris +0.7

NV: Harris +0.5

WI: Harris +0.2

NC: Trump +0.0

AZ: Trump +1.5



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270228)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:41 PM
Author: Bipolar bistre area

Choke on one faggit

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270242)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:49 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Many Cocks Spewing Gallons of Cum This Very Second

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:36 PM

Author: Many Cocks Spewing Gallons of Cum This Very Second

NATIONAL: Harris +4.1

MI: Harris +2.7

GA: Harris: +1.0

PA: Harris +0.7

NV: Harris +0.5

WI: Harris +0.2

NC: Trump +0.0

AZ: Trump +1.5

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282356)



Reply

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:42 PM
Author: Insanely creepy theatre

NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.4

NC: TRUMP +1.5

GA: TRUMP +2.9

AZ: TRUMP +3.1

NV: TRUMP +1.8

WI: TRUMP +0.5

MI: TRUMP +1.80

PA: TRUMP +0.3



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48270245)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:50 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle [TSINAH]

Date: November 1st, 2024 10:42 PM

Author: Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle (πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡΅πŸ‡±)

NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.4

NC: TRUMP +1.5

GA: TRUMP +2.9

AZ: TRUMP +3.1

NV: TRUMP +1.8

WI: TRUMP +0.5

MI: TRUMP +1.80

PA: TRUMP +0.3

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282359)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 1:21 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Slippery Abode

National: Kam +3.0

NC Kam .1

AZ Drumpf .1

PA Kam .1

WI Kam .1

MI Kam .1

GA Kam .1

NV Kam .1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48280818)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:50 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband [EPAH]

Date: November 4th, 2024 1:21 PM

Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband

National: Kam +3.0

NC Kam .1

AZ Drumpf .1

PA Kam .1

WI Kam .1

MI Kam .1

GA Kam .1

NV Kam .1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282362)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 8:42 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Slippery Abode

Aren't you supposed to quote-tweet it so that we can't make midstream edits?

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48283233)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 4:22 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

"(3) on the morning of 11/5 i will quote reply to all eligible votes."

11/5 morning (now) so people had up until 11/4 to make edits

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284590)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 1:52 PM
Author: heady deer antler

NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.8

NC: TRUMP +1

GA: TRUMP +2.5

AZ: TRUMP +3.4

NV: TRUMP +0.5

WI: TRUMP +0.5

MI: KAMALA +1%

PA: TRUMP +0.3

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48280920)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:49 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca

good prediction

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282357)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 11:11 AM
Author: heady deer antler

i don't think this is right, but it could be!

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48286101)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:51 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Zurich is Stained

Date: November 4th, 2024 1:52 PM

Author: butt cutlets and poo poo sauce

NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.8

NC: TRUMP +1

GA: TRUMP +2.5

AZ: TRUMP +3.4

NV: TRUMP +0.5

WI: TRUMP +0.5

MI: KAMALA +1%

PA: TRUMP +0.3



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282366)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 5:11 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282144)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 6:13 PM
Author: Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting

NATIONAL: KAMALALA +1.0

NC: KAMALA +0.5

GA: TRUMP +2.3

AZ: TRUMP +4.2

NV: TRUMP +1.5

WI: KAMALA +0.7

MI: KAMALA +1.2

PA: TRUMP +1.2

FINAL SCORE:

COMRADE HARRIS - 267

JONALD J TRUMP - 268

DR CORNEL MOTHERFUCKIN WEST - 3

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48282459)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 4:23 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Cornel West

Date: November 4th, 2024 6:13 PM

Author: Cornel West

NATIONAL: KAMALALA +1.0

NC: KAMALA +0.5

GA: TRUMP +2.3

AZ: TRUMP +4.2

NV: TRUMP +1.5

WI: KAMALA +0.7

MI: KAMALA +1.2

PA: TRUMP +1.2

FINAL SCORE:

COMRADE HARRIS - 267

JONALD J TRUMP - 268

DR CORNEL MOTHERFUCKIN WEST - 3

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284591)



Reply

Date: November 4th, 2024 8:41 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48283226)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 5:03 AM
Author: vermilion wonderful heaven

NATIONAL: Harris +1.8

NC: Trump +0.9

GA: Trump +0.6

AZ: Trump +0.5

NV: Harris +0.3

WI: Harris +1.1

MI: Harris +0.9

PA: Trump +0.1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284621)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 5:56 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: Drunkard

NATIONAL: Harris +1.8

NC: Trump +0.9

GA: Trump +0.6

AZ: Trump +0.5

NV: Harris +0.3

WI: Harris +1.1

MI: Harris +0.9

PA: Trump +0.1

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284673)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 5:57 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

allowing this late entry on the strength of the sudo. at my discretion other late entries may be allowed, with 9am EST being the absolute cut off.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284674)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 6:24 AM
Author: vermilion wonderful heaven

Thx. You did say morning I figured 5am was sufficiently early.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284719)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 6:26 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284721)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 7:05 AM
Author: Slate affirmative action

https://ibb.co/3pszb7d

DEMS: 317 REP: 221

NATIONAL: Harris +2.1

NC: Harris +0.3

GA: Harris +1.9

AZ: Harris +0.7

NV: Harris +0.9

WI: Harris +1.6

MI: Harris +2.1

PA: Harris +0.8

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284797)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 7:11 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

monikers? i've seen you poast but don't know what you switched from

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284812)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 7:12 AM
Author: Slate affirmative action



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284813)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 7:13 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)
Subject: ricky

Date: November 5th, 2024 7:05 AM

Author: Vote And Die Calcified Dipshit Barn Animal Goyim

https://ibb.co/3pszb7d

DEMS: 317 REP: 221

NATIONAL: Harris +2.1

NC: Harris +0.3

GA: Harris +1.9

AZ: Harris +0.7

NV: Harris +0.9

WI: Harris +1.6

MI: Harris +2.1

PA: Harris +0.8

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48284817)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 12:01 PM
Author: Magenta university



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48286466)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 9:24 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca

should have been more aggressive

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48291901)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 10:10 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca

libs?

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48292420)



Reply

Date: November 5th, 2024 10:12 PM
Author: Diverse Zippy Persian Famous Landscape Painting

I'm gonna get yo ass

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48292438)



Reply

Date: November 6th, 2024 12:08 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

i went high on my predictions and i think ill even have underestimated they final results

goodnight libs. you're all gonna die.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48294545)



Reply

Date: November 6th, 2024 4:22 AM
Author: vermilion wonderful heaven



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48296837)



Reply

Date: November 6th, 2024 6:21 PM
Author: contagious narrow-minded macaca



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48302532)



Reply

Date: November 6th, 2024 6:25 PM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

i accidentally left in Kamala on NC but it should be clear from my NPV prediction that it was a trump prediction. I'm giving myself trump NC considering it's just for clout with an asterisk am I'm not eligible anyway.

Have an excel spreadsheet ready to plug in everything once votes are in

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48302547)



Reply

Date: November 13th, 2024 11:29 AM
Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt)

counting and tabulation begins:

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5633329&mc=1&forum_id=2

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2#48331225)