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Will home prices still go up and up despite rising mortgage rates

...
appetizing bistre dysfunction
  02/18/22
the "yes" case is that its still cheap for blackro...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
What’s the argument that black rock etc won’t bu...
appetizing bistre dysfunction
  02/18/22
The argument for blackrock to buy fewer houses in the "...
Cordovan racy dog poop
  02/18/22
Seems like boomers dying off has got to be a huge effect at ...
Hairraiser onyx senate incel
  02/18/22
no one wants their suburban mcmansions. it's urban housing t...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
Once the bulk of millennials are raising school aged kids th...
grizzly glittery theater stage
  02/18/22
i don't think this is true anymore. millenials are becoming ...
Hairless boyish location
  02/18/22
I'm of the firm belief that this is the last hurrah for hous...
Cordovan racy dog poop
  02/18/22
its the last hurrah for america.
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
I agree - birth rates tell a big story that isn't being told...
Hairraiser onyx senate incel
  02/18/22
It’s downstream from jobs and wages which is super har...
grizzly glittery theater stage
  02/18/22
i think homes in phoenix will continue to rise
Mind-boggling indecent partner gas station
  02/18/22
I would think wfh would be very bad for Phoenix. But maybe ...
grizzly glittery theater stage
  02/18/22
how do you bet on this view. rent?
Haunting Shrine Sneaky Criminal
  02/18/22
sure at some point they stop buying, but given what inflatio...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
big investors like blackrock are just following the market, ...
Cordovan racy dog poop
  02/18/22
I think they do for a little while just because there's so m...
Hairraiser onyx senate incel
  02/18/22
no
razzle abode roast beef
  02/18/22
What are prices doing in Ohio and the Rust Belt? Places wit...
territorial lemon hell cumskin
  02/18/22
there is hope that widespread wfh leads to a rust belt and r...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
what about desirable markets? are there different rules for ...
appetizing bistre dysfunction
  02/18/22
home prices should go up. boomers bought homes for 200k t...
soul-stirring blathering main people generalized bond
  02/18/22
...
Hairless boyish location
  02/18/22
...
apoplectic underhanded roommate
  02/18/22
there are certain markets that will never decline, like SF o...
misunderstood range
  02/18/22
(definitely not CA trolling)
Insecure Crawly Weed Whacker Dilemma
  02/18/22
real estate is just hyper fucking local. this thread is stup...
misunderstood range
  02/18/22
Dis. The only new houses being built in LA are teardowns...
godawful red orchestra pit
  02/18/22
SF is the only market that’s down from a few years ago...
carmine blood rage
  02/18/22
https://29y1pu2xvdbzd0g2823sa275-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-...
misunderstood range
  02/18/22
Rates are going up... Each 1% change in interest rates means...
Avocado Trailer Park
  02/18/22
flame. nobody sticks to one mortgage for 30 years
Insecure Crawly Weed Whacker Dilemma
  02/18/22
Fair, but $300K borrowed @ 3% is $1250/mo, 4% is $1450 and 5...
Avocado Trailer Park
  02/18/22
the problem with these boom cities is that they all have rid...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
LA allows any homeowner to build an ADU on their property wi...
peach fluffy queen of the night
  02/18/22
Ultimately, yes. Maybe a temporary dip or stagnation but wil...
godawful red orchestra pit
  02/18/22
So current homeowners should be ok, right?
painfully honest burgundy hospital trump supporter
  02/18/22
Sit tight. Enjoy your low interest rates. Watch inflation wh...
godawful red orchestra pit
  02/18/22
Ty. Glad I bought before the storm hits
painfully honest burgundy hospital trump supporter
  02/18/22
what if we just bought in this huge bubble with high prices ...
appetizing bistre dysfunction
  02/18/22
long term you will be fine.
Hairless boyish location
  02/18/22
ironically, if you took out a huge mortgage and you don't pl...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
damn. makes me wish i took a bigger mortgage. i only owe lik...
Hairless boyish location
  02/18/22
you should be fine. your payments will stay the same and you...
adventurous rambunctious electric furnace
  02/18/22
taking a huge mortgage and it's a long term bet. my sala...
appetizing bistre dysfunction
  02/18/22
All depends on locality. Some of the places with the highest...
apoplectic underhanded roommate
  02/18/22
Mine went up $60K
Iridescent Irradiated Theatre Therapy
  02/18/22
now that covid is over, and no reason not to sally forth, th...
Lime Trip Church Building Factory Reset Button
  02/18/22


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:25 AM
Author: appetizing bistre dysfunction



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987839)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:36 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

the "yes" case is that its still cheap for blackrock et al to keep buying en masse and fewer homes will be available because people either won't want to take on a higher rate on a new place or won't want to take a hit on the sale of their current one if they are recent buyers.

the "no" case is that a bunch of people rush to sell in the next year or two to lock in their gains which turns into a cascade. but then there's blackrock et al to buy it all up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987878)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:39 AM
Author: appetizing bistre dysfunction

What’s the argument that black rock etc won’t buy it up in the no case?

This assumes a general healthy economy not a big overall crash. What does a big overall crash do? Still black rock ?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987887)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:53 AM
Author: Cordovan racy dog poop

The argument for blackrock to buy fewer houses in the "no" scenario is that it's becoming a crappy long-term investment given relatively low population growth of the past two decades (and likely even lower growth going forward), boomers dying off in the next 10 years, and the residential building frenzy over the past 3 years finally producing enough supply.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987966)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:56 AM
Author: Hairraiser onyx senate incel

Seems like boomers dying off has got to be a huge effect at some point soon with housing. Boomers are going to be in their 80s in a few years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987978)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:57 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

no one wants their suburban mcmansions. it's urban housing that's driving the entire thing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987985)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:21 AM
Author: grizzly glittery theater stage

Once the bulk of millennials are raising school aged kids this will change and is already starting. Big city school districts were all ready pure shit (arguably with the exception of NYC) and the pandemic made them considerably worse. It’s becoming a “move to the suburbs in your late 30s/for your second house” stage.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/are-millennials-leaving-cities-yes-young-adults-are-not

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988099)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:36 AM
Author: Hairless boyish location

i don't think this is true anymore. millenials are becoming their parents and after having kids are realizing the benefits of having more space and good schools over access to a wider variety of restaurants.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988172)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:00 AM
Author: Cordovan racy dog poop

I'm of the firm belief that this is the last hurrah for housing. It's a bit of a contrarian take and it seems crazy given what appears to be a supply problem but the population growth and TFR trends seem pretty clear to me. Other countries that went through this saw real estate values plummet over time. We're headed toward a Japan and europe (continental) market. Adjusted for inflation their real estate has largely been a shitty investment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988001)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:09 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

its the last hurrah for america.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988046)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:15 AM
Author: Hairraiser onyx senate incel

I agree - birth rates tell a big story that isn't being told. America has less than replacement rate until you add immigration at which point it's barely over 2.0. I just don't see where all the future demand comes from. Europe is even more concerning with birth rates, I think every single country there has less than 2.0 birth rate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988070)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:24 AM
Author: grizzly glittery theater stage

It’s downstream from jobs and wages which is super hard to predict right now and schools which are reliably shitty and good ones are even more likely to be scarce. If tech rebounds and continues to pay well and wfh takes full root there’s a lot of housing upside left just in buying up boomers’ old houses that haven’t been updated in good school districts. Banks will lose money on the shitty houses no one wants but there will be real estate that continues appreciating and that the UMC still covets and pays top dollar to get.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988121)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:12 AM
Author: Mind-boggling indecent partner gas station

i think homes in phoenix will continue to rise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988348)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 5:08 PM
Author: grizzly glittery theater stage

I would think wfh would be very bad for Phoenix. But maybe it just lets everyone in Phoenix leave for the summer? Not sure but I can imagine picking Phoenix if I had a job I could do from anywhere in the world.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43990356)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 12:29 PM
Author: Haunting Shrine Sneaky Criminal

how do you bet on this view. rent?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988978)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:55 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

sure at some point they stop buying, but given what inflation looks like they've decided that buying at any price and renting it out over 10 years is a great deal. rents are skyrocketing and building isn't happening nearly quick enough in high demand cities.

i guess the no case is that if price depreciation is rapid enough, people/blackrock withhold purchases in anticipation of further decreases. but again, blackrock is in it for the rents, not the equity (though that's certainly part of their calculation).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987973)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:49 AM
Author: Cordovan racy dog poop

big investors like blackrock are just following the market, and not market drivers. I doubt investors/flippers make up more than 20% of the single-family home market and almost all of that 20% is mom-and-pop operations that would most definitely feel the pinch of higher rates.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987938)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 9:58 AM
Author: Hairraiser onyx senate incel

I think they do for a little while just because there's so much demand still with little going on the market.

But there has never been more new inventory that's been built that's about to come on the market before.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43987991)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:17 AM
Author: razzle abode roast beef

no

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988075)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:17 AM
Author: territorial lemon hell cumskin

What are prices doing in Ohio and the Rust Belt? Places with declining populations like Buffalo. I assume they are aren't going up right?

What about Chicago, St. Louis and Cincinatti?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988076)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:22 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

there is hope that widespread wfh leads to a rust belt and rural revival. COL is astoundingly cheap in much of america but there are no jobs.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988107)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:30 AM
Author: appetizing bistre dysfunction

what about desirable markets? are there different rules for them?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988146)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:31 AM
Author: soul-stirring blathering main people generalized bond

home prices should go up.

boomers bought homes for 200k that went up to a million dollars in 20 years. they built all that equity and screwed the next generation.

millennials who bought for a million are therefore entitled to $5m homes in 20 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988153)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:36 AM
Author: Hairless boyish location



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988175)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:08 AM
Author: apoplectic underhanded roommate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988330)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:40 AM
Author: misunderstood range

there are certain markets that will never decline, like SF or LA. but yeah the morons that spent $1m to live in boise are fucked though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988189)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:41 AM
Author: Insecure Crawly Weed Whacker Dilemma

(definitely not CA trolling)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988191)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:45 AM
Author: misunderstood range

real estate is just hyper fucking local. this thread is stupid. demographic trends here in LA are extremely favorable to long-term price increases. even a massive earthquake would be a temporary blip at this point.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988202)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:02 AM
Author: godawful red orchestra pit

Dis.

The only new houses being built in LA are teardowns. There's literally no more room for large scale new subdivisions due to planning regs.

But I want to cash out and leave the state before the long overdue great earthquake hits.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988299)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:42 AM
Author: carmine blood rage

SF is the only market that’s down from a few years ago. Are you talking about South Bay?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988596)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 12:09 PM
Author: misunderstood range

https://29y1pu2xvdbzd0g2823sa275-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Bay-Area-Housing-Market-Trends-1.jpg

look at the y/y change. that's despite it being disproportionately affected by tech workers fleeing to cheaper less insane places

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988850)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:45 AM
Author: Avocado Trailer Park

Rates are going up... Each 1% change in interest rates means an extra 40% in interest costs over 30 yrs.

Houses are being built at a breakneck pace, the most in 50 yrs.

https://twitter.com/BobOnMarkets/status/1494310471561793540/photo/1

Population is stagnant or increasing at slowest rate in US history.

Long term, this is not a good combination. Maybe these factors will just destroy ridiculous housing bubbles in SF, Seattle, LA, etc., and not bring prices down across the country, buy who knows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988200)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:46 AM
Author: Insecure Crawly Weed Whacker Dilemma

flame. nobody sticks to one mortgage for 30 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988204)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:48 AM
Author: Avocado Trailer Park

Fair, but $300K borrowed @ 3% is $1250/mo, 4% is $1450 and 5% is $1600/mo. An extra $200/mo. might not sound like a lot, but a lot of buyers will get pwned by debt-to-income ratios and get priced out of the market, resulting in lower demand.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988225)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 10:46 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

the problem with these boom cities is that they all have ridiculous zoning laws and other impediments to development.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988207)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:46 AM
Author: peach fluffy queen of the night

LA allows any homeowner to build an ADU on their property without any zoning. They also just passed something that lets you split the lot into two without a zoning change and put two houses plus 2 ADU on each lot. So you can change a single family home into a fourplex. I'm thinking about building an ADU on my MIL's property I rent to her.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988628)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:02 AM
Author: godawful red orchestra pit

Ultimately, yes. Maybe a temporary dip or stagnation but will continue rising with inflation/interest rates. Hope your income keeps up!



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988290)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:06 AM
Author: painfully honest burgundy hospital trump supporter

So current homeowners should be ok, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988317)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:09 AM
Author: godawful red orchestra pit

Sit tight. Enjoy your low interest rates. Watch inflation whore away your mortgage payments while inflating the value of your house.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988332)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:28 AM
Author: painfully honest burgundy hospital trump supporter

Ty. Glad I bought before the storm hits

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988465)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:40 AM
Author: appetizing bistre dysfunction

what if we just bought in this huge bubble with high prices but with low rates?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988568)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:43 AM
Author: Hairless boyish location

long term you will be fine.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988602)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:45 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

ironically, if you took out a huge mortgage and you don't plan on leaving, you're sitting pretty. the all cash buyers and flippers, not so much.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988618)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:46 AM
Author: Hairless boyish location

damn. makes me wish i took a bigger mortgage. i only owe like $430k. Am i fucked?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988629)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:47 AM
Author: adventurous rambunctious electric furnace

you should be fine. your payments will stay the same and your salary should increase (lol!) with inflation.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988642)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 12:04 PM
Author: appetizing bistre dysfunction

taking a huge mortgage and it's a long term bet.

my salary isnt going up tho

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988804)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 11:08 AM
Author: apoplectic underhanded roommate

All depends on locality. Some of the places with the highest demand are systemically low on housing so prices will remain high.

But flyovers who didn't sell when prices were 1.5-2x what they should be are really going to miss out.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988325)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 12:11 PM
Author: Iridescent Irradiated Theatre Therapy

Mine went up $60K

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988862)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 18th, 2022 12:29 PM
Author: Lime Trip Church Building Factory Reset Button

now that covid is over, and no reason not to sally forth, there is just too much cash out there looking for a place to call home

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5034761&forum_id=2#43988977)