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Horse racing expert taking questions.
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Date: May 19th, 2024 5:00 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47674587) |
Date: May 20th, 2024 10:53 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676405) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:07 AM Author: comical citrine main people Are there any analytics nerds trying to take this over?
If so, what do they try to figure out about this? What's their angle?
If not, why not? |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:11 AM Author: talented crimson lodge This of it sort of like tennis where certain players perform better on certain surfaces. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676453) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena That's just basic handicapping though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676478) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: comical citrine main people Seems like something you could have figured out in 1860.
How about something like analyzing the horses' gaits with high speed cameras and computer programs? |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena It has already been taken over by Computer Assisted Wagering teams or CAWs. It may end up killing the sport, because CAWs make up an enormous amount of the handle bet in ordinary races. It is very similar to computers betting against computers now, and unless there are sucker actual people involved there is no sucker to beat.
All the normal people hate it, particularly because the CAW teams get special rebates on their wagers and special access to information and ways to bet. It is crooked as hell. Many of the CAWs are affiliated with race tracks. I tried to get EPAH to sue them. |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:17 AM Author: comical citrine main people are they just trying to arbitrage the lines?
what are the inputs the actually use? |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:24 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena It's only arbitrage to the extent that the CAW teams get rebates from the tracks. To profit, the CAWs still need to be profitable bettors.
At a normal track, the takeout or take that goes to the track as a percentage of the handle might be 18 percent. If the CAWs get a 10 percent rebate for each dollar bet, they are have an advantage versus normal human players.
They use algorithms and have computers to make wagers. I don't know all the details for their inputs. Some people say they are allowed to bet after the gate has opened. |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:26 AM Author: Amber brunch Are CAWs active even in small dollar races, like harness racing? Do their bets typically come in at the last second before the race starts? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676511) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:26 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Yes and yes. Although there is less dumb money to take at smaller tracks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676514) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:28 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Due to complaints, some circuits have barred CAWs from making last minute wagers in some pools but it is common to see a winner's odds drop dramatically during the race due to last minute wagers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676523) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: swollen nubile sanctuary has anyone studied the statistical performances based on how much the horse shits pre-race?
Seems like a good amount of shitting would lighten the carrying weight to some degree.
can betters access this information? |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:19 AM Author: comical citrine main people lol, yeah, or figure out how much the horse has eaten/slept in the past 48 hours or whatever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676491) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:22 AM Author: swollen nubile sanctuary Candy, pls address this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676500) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:26 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Some people say a horse shitting during a post parade is good luck, but I am unaware of any statistical analysis.
In am ordinary race, the horses are pumped up with lasix which is a diuretic with a goal to make them lighter. |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:32 AM Author: Bearded Indigo Senate Filthpig isn't that stuff banned / tested for? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676535) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 11:33 AM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Its banned in 2 year old races and in graded stakes, but it is almost always used when it can be.
The therapeutic purpose is the prevent horses from having their lungs bleed while their are exerting themselves. Some horses are bleeders and need it. |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 12:26 PM Author: Bearded Indigo Senate Filthpig what about for the 3yr olds at the various 3xcrown events? is that a 'graded stake'? not familiar with the industry terms (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676724) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 12:39 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Lasix isn't permitted in any of the Triple Crown races. They are graded stakes. They are grade 1 races which are the most prestigious class. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47676758) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 3:27 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47677263) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 4:01 PM Author: harsh ruby box office Do horses ever get boners right before or after they race? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47677364) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 4:12 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Yes it happens. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47677403) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 4:20 PM Author: harsh ruby box office Got any pics? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47677445) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 4:20 PM Author: Amber brunch Given the CAWs what bets do you recommend for the casual better? What are some interesting facts the casual better doesn’t know so I can impress my friends? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47677441) |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 4:31 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena When I started, I always played pick 5s because of the allure of big hits. I very rarely play pick 5s anymore. Just on big days.
Now I almost exclusively make straight win bets.
I have never been into vertical exotics like exactas, trifectas, and supers. Very rarely I might play an exacta.
The CAWs are in all the pools so there is probably no reason to change what wager you would make in response to them. People can beat the CAWs, so that is the long-term goal.
If you just know how all the different wagers work and basic strategy, that should impress people. Horse Racing for Dummies is a great book. |
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Date: May 20th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#47678031) |
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Date: October 2nd, 2025 4:23 AM Author: Fantasy-prone giraffe you still poast?
i bet on horse racing for a living. im looking forward to Sovereignty laying down the pipe on Forever Young (JPN)
mark patterson left his post at mountaineer racecourse and it felt like a sign of the times but doug salvatore has done a good enough job filling the airwaves so fuck libs, and may this sport last another thousand years. |
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Date: October 2nd, 2025 5:13 AM Author: Floppy opaque ticket booth not that poaster but I have family with a season box at Churchill and go a couple times a year, planning for something early in the fall meet rn did you know Forever Young is owned by the president of the JP megacorp behind this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umamusume:_Pretty_Derby |
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Date: October 2nd, 2025 5:44 AM Author: Fantasy-prone giraffe no i didnt until very recently.
Forever Young (JPN) SMOTHERCRUSHED his race yesterday |
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Date: October 8th, 2025 2:28 PM Author: Pontificating Striped Hyena Fierceness loves Del Mar. Kind of thinking about him at the moment although I have been on Sovereignty all the way until the Pacific Classic. Fuck Jap horses. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#49334649) |
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Date: November 21st, 2025 1:53 PM Author: tats the breeders cup was amazing, i won $25k on Ethical Diamond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#49450005) |
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Date: November 24th, 2025 3:40 PM Author: Candy Ride Really? 180.
This Tinky guy I follow on Twitter touted him before the race.
What was your angle? Are you mad his odds dropped in half?
That was one of the coolest races I have ever seen. Watched the replay over and over. |
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Date: November 25th, 2025 8:34 AM Author: tats its just one of those judgment calls you have to make when a unique never seen before situation presents itself. i can't share this particular reason though.
another example is city of troy in the BCC in 2024. horse never looked comfortable in its practice gallops and i thought it had next to no chance. i laid it on betfair.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbcCDBypICE
listen to these mugs tell you the horse is going good. they are clueless. city of troy is at a full gallop while every other horse is cantering. hes also see-sawing and unbalanced in his action and never looked relaxed.
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Date: November 25th, 2025 9:51 AM Author: Candy Ride Are you a workout watcher? I never have been. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#49458898) |
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Date: November 25th, 2025 9:40 PM Author: tats I'm a computer dork, but the once-in-a-lifetime angles are stuff that computer models struggle with is an angle I've used for the big international races.
Equibase offers a complimentary sample data pack for 1 year worth of results if you want to be a dork. When you have confidence that what you have works, then you can start buying their fresh data products (I think it will cost less than $1000 a year), and of course bet somewhere where you can get rebates. |
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Date: November 25th, 2025 9:44 PM Author: bungulator One time I was in Tokyo and stumbled into what I can only describe as a "horse racing arcade" I ended up either getting roofied or Hella drunk and and "woke up" to some nip lady giving me head while I was spending thousands on virtual horse races. Then I got thrown out like in a cartoon like an hour later (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#49461217) |
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Date: November 25th, 2025 9:47 PM Author: Juan Eighty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2.#49461220) |