The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/10/15 |
| talented mental disorder dragon | 12/12/15 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 01/02/17 |
| Vivacious Stead | 01/06/16 |
| opaque abode potus | 01/06/16 |
| opaque abode potus | 06/05/16 |
| Exhilarant national security agency | 03/26/16 |
| Lascivious apoplectic institution | 01/02/17 |
| odious disrespectful public bath multi-billionaire | 10/25/18 |
| Angry Market | 12/10/15 |
| Bossy coffee pot | 12/10/15 |
| Aphrodisiac Place Of Business | 12/10/15 |
| Trip Turquoise Tattoo | 12/10/15 |
| Translucent thriller volcanic crater | 12/15/15 |
| pungent boyish nursing home | 12/10/15 |
| vibrant awkward french chef | 12/10/15 |
| Sticky ruddy nibblets pisswyrm | 12/10/15 |
| Brindle adventurous gay wizard | 12/11/15 |
| citrine really tough guy | 12/12/15 |
| magenta impressive set | 12/16/15 |
| Concupiscible Indirect Expression Home | 01/04/16 |
| Brilliant Mind-boggling Hospital Dingle Berry | 11/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/11/15 |
| racy mauve business firm sex offender | 12/11/15 |
| Beady-eyed house | 12/11/15 |
| Brindle adventurous gay wizard | 12/11/15 |
| Floppy mildly autistic mediation theater | 12/12/15 |
| Naked hairraiser friendly grandma | 01/25/16 |
| stimulating maniacal alpha | 11/10/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/12/15 |
| Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio | 12/12/15 |
| pea-brained station sound barrier | 12/12/15 |
| Aromatic soggy round eye | 12/12/15 |
| Drunken nowag meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate | 12/21/15 |
| violet heaven weed whacker | 12/12/15 |
| sable thirsty hall | 12/12/15 |
| Maroon Prole | 12/12/15 |
| Crystalline cruise ship puppy | 12/12/15 |
| white shitlib rigor | 12/12/15 |
| disturbing theatre pocket flask | 12/12/15 |
| vibrant awkward french chef | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant awkward french chef | 12/16/15 |
| razzmatazz church building feces | 12/15/15 |
| buff arrogant international law enforcement agency box office | 12/15/15 |
| supple lodge | 12/15/15 |
| Ultramarine heady native | 12/15/15 |
| Federal Turdskin Hominid | 12/15/15 |
| zippy wonderful hell affirmative action | 12/15/15 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Hilarious mad cow disease bawdyhouse | 01/05/16 |
| Naked hairraiser friendly grandma | 01/25/16 |
| Aquamarine state | 12/17/16 |
| beta flesh depressive | 05/18/16 |
| Slimy mustard karate psychic | 08/12/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 11/09/16 |
| submissive grizzly legend school | 11/09/16 |
| Kink-friendly Indian Lodge | 10/22/20 |
| Ungodly umber goal in life roommate | 12/15/15 |
| Excitant blue giraffe philosopher-king | 12/16/15 |
| bateful yarmulke | 12/16/15 |
| Motley Gunner Dopamine | 12/16/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 12/16/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 12/17/15 |
| Sienna property chad | 12/18/15 |
| Vivacious Stead | 01/06/16 |
| Arousing Locus | 12/18/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 12/21/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 12/21/15 |
| slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate | 12/21/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 12/30/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 12/30/15 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 01/04/16 |
| Concupiscible Indirect Expression Home | 01/04/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 01/05/16 |
| Naked hairraiser friendly grandma | 01/25/16 |
| Sienna property chad | 01/05/16 |
| 180 juggernaut | 01/05/16 |
| Outnumbered personal credit line | 01/05/16 |
| Aggressive Main People Keepsake Machete | 01/05/16 |
| Know-it-all National | 01/05/16 |
| Aggressive Main People Keepsake Machete | 01/05/16 |
| Vivacious Stead | 01/06/16 |
| Aggressive Main People Keepsake Machete | 01/06/16 |
| Know-it-all National | 01/05/16 |
| Slimy mustard karate psychic | 01/06/16 |
| slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate | 01/07/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 01/08/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 01/08/16 |
| slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate | 01/08/16 |
| Sienna property chad | 01/09/16 |
| slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate | 01/10/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 01/18/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 01/19/16 |
| Sienna property chad | 01/21/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 01/25/16 |
| dead whorehouse athletic conference | 01/25/16 |
| Naked hairraiser friendly grandma | 01/25/16 |
| dead whorehouse athletic conference | 02/09/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 09/06/16 |
| Vivacious Stead | 11/05/18 |
| Big lilac orchestra pit queen of the night | 01/29/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 02/01/16 |
| azure messiness | 02/01/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 02/01/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 02/07/16 |
| 180 juggernaut | 02/09/16 |
| cerise demanding telephone | 02/09/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 02/20/16 |
| Carnelian tantric party of the first part | 02/20/16 |
| beta flesh depressive | 02/24/16 |
| unhinged cordovan liquid oxygen corn cake | 02/24/16 |
| salmon multi-colored electric furnace | 02/27/16 |
| razzmatazz church building feces | 03/09/16 |
| soul-stirring resort ape | 03/15/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Place Of Business | 03/15/16 |
| buff arrogant international law enforcement agency box office | 03/16/16 |
| vigorous cheese-eating background story | 02/24/16 |
| Haunting Den Useless Brakes | 02/24/16 |
| buff arrogant international law enforcement agency box office | 07/21/16 |
| orange hairy legs | 02/24/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Place Of Business | 02/27/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/02/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/04/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/09/16 |
| 180 juggernaut | 03/09/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/15/16 |
| beta flesh depressive | 03/15/16 |
| nofapping seedy church | 03/15/16 |
| Histrionic duck-like address | 03/15/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/16/16 |
| vibrant awkward french chef | 03/16/16 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 03/23/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/23/16 |
| Maroon Prole | 03/26/16 |
| spectacular sepia gas station stock car | 03/26/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/26/16 |
| Hilarious mad cow disease bawdyhouse | 03/28/16 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 03/28/16 |
| Bossy coffee pot | 03/28/16 |
| Slimy mustard karate psychic | 08/12/16 |
| Vivacious Stead | 11/05/18 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/28/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/29/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 03/29/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 03/29/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/29/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/29/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/01/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/04/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 04/15/16 |
| olive rehab fortuitous meteor | 04/15/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/19/16 |
| bearded razzle shrine cumskin | 04/20/16 |
| coral cracking temple | 04/20/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/24/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/25/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/26/16 |
| obsidian contagious principal's office | 04/26/16 |
| bat shit crazy cobalt step-uncle's house | 04/30/16 |
| slippery base | 05/01/16 |
| slippery base | 11/07/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/02/16 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 05/02/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/03/16 |
| Laughsome area reading party | 05/03/16 |
| up-to-no-good jet parlor | 05/03/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/04/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 05/04/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/05/16 |
| Crystalline cruise ship puppy | 05/05/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 05/05/16 |
| Haunting Den Useless Brakes | 05/05/16 |
| Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio | 05/18/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/18/16 |
| beta flesh depressive | 05/18/16 |
| Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio | 05/18/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 05/29/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 06/20/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 06/29/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/14/16 |
| learning disabled exciting lay | 07/15/16 |
| Slimy mustard karate psychic | 07/15/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/17/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 07/17/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/21/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/22/16 |
| Burgundy fragrant boiling water | 07/22/16 |
| Crimson elite center | 07/23/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/24/16 |
| Comical stage | 07/25/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 07/25/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 07/27/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 08/05/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 08/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 08/12/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 08/12/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 08/12/16 |
| canary water buffalo garrison | 08/12/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 08/30/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 08/30/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 09/06/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 09/13/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 09/14/16 |
| violet heaven weed whacker | 09/14/16 |
| Passionate dark theater stage | 09/15/16 |
| Plum galvanic old irish cottage | 09/15/16 |
| opaque abode potus | 09/15/16 |
| filthy yellow preventive strike brunch | 09/15/16 |
| cerebral bat-shit-crazy field | 09/15/16 |
| Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal | 09/19/16 |
| Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal | 09/19/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 09/27/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 09/24/16 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 09/27/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 09/27/16 |
| vibrant awkward french chef | 09/27/16 |
| puce marvelous office | 10/08/16 |
| rambunctious dashing organic girlfriend | 07/29/24 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 09/28/16 |
| violet heaven weed whacker | 09/28/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 09/28/16 |
| coral cracking temple | 09/28/16 |
| olive rehab fortuitous meteor | 09/28/16 |
| flushed unholy boistinker | 10/08/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 10/09/16 |
| drab school cafeteria tank | 10/09/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 10/09/16 |
| Poppy electric plaza | 10/09/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 10/10/16 |
| Comical stage | 10/30/16 |
| Slimy mustard karate psychic | 11/01/16 |
| filthy yellow preventive strike brunch | 11/01/16 |
| Appetizing foreskin | 11/02/16 |
| Ultramarine heady native | 11/02/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 11/07/16 |
| adulterous yapping clown | 11/08/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 11/08/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/08/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 11/08/16 |
| charismatic iridescent trailer park | 11/08/16 |
| Mahogany codepig | 11/08/16 |
| azure messiness | 11/08/16 |
| Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal | 11/08/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/08/16 |
| Bistre internal respiration private investor | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate dark theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle dilemma | 11/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| filthy yellow preventive strike brunch | 11/09/16 |
| Bistre internal respiration private investor | 11/09/16 |
| Comical stage | 11/09/16 |
| Crystalline cruise ship puppy | 11/09/16 |
| Curious Cuckoldry Generalized Bond | 12/03/16 |
| stimulating maniacal alpha | 12/07/16 |
| Aquamarine state | 12/17/16 |
| glittery blood rage | 10/11/24 |
| diverse zombie-like location headpube | 11/09/16 |
| ebony associate selfie | 11/09/16 |
| Free-loading hunting ground | 11/09/16 |
| costumed love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| Curious Cuckoldry Generalized Bond | 11/09/16 |
| Slimy mustard karate psychic | 11/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio | 11/09/16 |
| bisexual masturbator | 11/09/16 |
| slate out-of-control chapel double fault | 11/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| Stirring Confused Range | 11/09/16 |
| Charcoal sweet tailpipe kitty cat | 11/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| Trip Turquoise Tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| Arousing Locus | 11/10/16 |
| dead whorehouse athletic conference | 11/10/16 |
| opaque abode potus | 11/10/16 |
| internet-worthy toaster trump supporter | 11/10/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/10/16 |
| Sapphire point faggotry | 11/10/16 |
| Carnelian tantric party of the first part | 11/10/16 |
| Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal | 11/14/16 |
| Walnut provocative university | 11/14/16 |
| emerald police squad | 12/04/16 |
| Aquamarine state | 12/17/16 |
| glittery blood rage | 10/11/24 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/25/16 |
| topaz pervert site | 12/03/16 |
| Poppy electric plaza | 12/04/16 |
| bronze menage half-breed | 12/07/16 |
| opaque abode potus | 12/07/16 |
| topaz pervert site | 12/07/16 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 01/02/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/02/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 01/02/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/02/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 03/03/20 |
| opaque abode potus | 01/02/17 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 01/16/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/20/17 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 01/20/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/23/17 |
| flushed unholy boistinker | 01/23/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/23/17 |
| sadistic immigrant people who are hurt | 01/23/17 |
| flushed unholy boistinker | 01/23/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/23/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/25/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 01/26/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 02/06/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 02/13/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 02/27/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 05/03/17 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/03/17 |
| Hairless bright pozpig pistol | 09/21/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Place Of Business | 01/23/17 |
| filthy yellow preventive strike brunch | 02/27/17 |
| Vivacious Stead | 03/22/17 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 04/17/17 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/08/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 06/20/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 08/10/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 10/15/17 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 10/15/17 |
| stage dog poop | 10/15/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/06/17 |
| dun toilet seat tanning salon | 11/06/17 |
| Purple Circlehead | 11/08/17 |
| Nudist Regret Space | 11/08/17 |
| black sanctuary | 11/13/17 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 12/18/17 |
| bisexual masturbator | 12/18/17 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 12/18/17 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 01/30/18 |
| opaque abode potus | 06/01/18 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/18/18 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 07/19/18 |
| cerebral bat-shit-crazy field | 09/20/18 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 09/25/18 |
| Bossy coffee pot | 10/06/18 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 10/06/18 |
| opaque abode potus | 10/25/18 |
| Plum galvanic old irish cottage | 10/25/18 |
| Naked hairraiser friendly grandma | 11/05/18 |
| opaque abode potus | 11/05/18 |
| Vivacious Stead | 11/05/18 |
| opaque abode potus | 11/05/18 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 01/08/19 |
| crackhouse dysfunction | 02/23/19 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 03/13/19 |
| Naked hairraiser friendly grandma | 06/24/19 |
| pale library | 06/24/19 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 11/18/19 |
| filthy yellow preventive strike brunch | 02/12/20 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 02/12/20 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 03/24/20 |
| Rusted patrolman | 03/24/20 |
| learning disabled exciting lay | 04/04/20 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 04/26/20 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 05/13/20 |
| learning disabled exciting lay | 06/05/20 |
| Flirting boltzmann | 06/05/20 |
| learning disabled exciting lay | 09/09/20 |
| filthy yellow preventive strike brunch | 09/09/20 |
| Angry Market | 09/09/20 |
| Parlour Faggot Firefighter | 09/12/20 |
| lime corner | 09/24/20 |
| pale library | 10/09/20 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 10/10/20 |
| peach senate newt | 10/22/20 |
| Curious Cuckoldry Generalized Bond | 10/22/20 |
| Kink-friendly Indian Lodge | 10/22/20 |
| Kink-friendly Indian Lodge | 10/22/20 |
| navy rigpig locale | 03/23/22 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 10/27/20 |
| Vivacious Stead | 10/27/20 |
| pale library | 10/30/20 |
| irradiated antidepressant drug | 11/03/20 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/22/22 |
| Brass hateful kitchen | 03/23/22 |
| transparent mother forum | 03/23/22 |
| Pearly bearded cuckold stag film | 03/23/22 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 07/25/22 |
| Angry Market | 07/25/22 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 10/23/22 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 11/16/22 |
| Swashbuckling Goyim | 04/25/23 |
| Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio | 04/25/23 |
| lime corner | 04/29/23 |
| rambunctious dashing organic girlfriend | 05/28/23 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 02/22/24 |
| lime corner | 02/23/24 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 05/23/24 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 08/26/24 |
| lime corner | 09/13/24 |
| Angry Market | 09/13/24 |
| lime corner | 10/18/24 |
| glittery blood rage | 10/11/24 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 11/06/24 |
| Crystalline cruise ship puppy | 03/04/25 |
| Crystalline cruise ship puppy | 03/04/25 |
| cerebral bat-shit-crazy field | 03/04/25 |
| glittery blood rage | 03/04/25 |
| Balding ivory ticket booth | 03/04/25 |
| judgmental spot | 03/05/25 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/07/25 |
| copper casino | 03/07/25 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/08/25 |
| misanthropic pink jew | 03/08/25 |
| titillating domesticated piazza | 03/08/25 |
| incel adams | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: talented mental disorder dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: opaque abode potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: opaque abode potus another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Exhilarant national security agency 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Lascivious apoplectic institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: odious disrespectful public bath multi-billionaire "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Angry Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Bossy coffee pot 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Place Of Business 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Trip Turquoise Tattoo Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Translucent thriller volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: pungent boyish nursing home FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: vibrant awkward french chef Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Sticky ruddy nibblets pisswyrm Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Brindle adventurous gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: citrine really tough guy Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: magenta impressive set Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Concupiscible Indirect Expression Home Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Brilliant Mind-boggling Hospital Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Brindle adventurous gay wizard November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29359926) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Naked hairraiser friendly grandma Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: stimulating maniacal alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: pea-brained station sound barrier lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Aromatic soggy round eye March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Drunken nowag meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: sable thirsty hall lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: white shitlib rigor Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: disturbing theatre pocket flask Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: vibrant awkward french chef OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: vibrant awkward french chef And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: razzmatazz church building feces 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: buff arrogant international law enforcement agency box office fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: supple lodge I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Ultramarine heady native 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Federal Turdskin Hominid February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: zippy wonderful hell affirmative action You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Hilarious mad cow disease bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Naked hairraiser friendly grandma Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Aquamarine state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: beta flesh depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Slimy mustard karate psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: submissive grizzly legend school Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Kink-friendly Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Ungodly umber goal in life roommate This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Excitant blue giraffe philosopher-king 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: bateful yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Motley Gunner Dopamine Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Sienna property chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Arousing Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Concupiscible Indirect Expression Home flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Naked hairraiser friendly grandma Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Sienna property chad From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: 180 juggernaut 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Outnumbered personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Aggressive Main People Keepsake Machete An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Know-it-all National 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Aggressive Main People Keepsake Machete I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Aggressive Main People Keepsake Machete Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Know-it-all National No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Slimy mustard karate psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: bisexual masturbator 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Sienna property chad http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: slap-happy mentally impaired doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Sienna property chad looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Naked hairraiser friendly grandma You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: dead whorehouse athletic conference No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: bisexual masturbator (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31345881) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29771453) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Carnelian tantric party of the first part OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: unhinged cordovan liquid oxygen corn cake The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29903615) |
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this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Haunting Den Useless Brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: buff arrogant international law enforcement agency box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: orange hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Place Of Business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: 180 juggernaut yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: beta flesh depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: nofapping seedy church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Histrionic duck-like address truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: vibrant awkward french chef March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Maroon Prole http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: spectacular sepia gas station stock car Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Hilarious mad cow disease bawdyhouse jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Bossy coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Slimy mustard karate psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Sapphire point faggotry lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Sapphire point faggotry "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Sapphire point faggotry interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: olive rehab fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: bearded razzle shrine cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: coral cracking temple I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: obsidian contagious principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: bat shit crazy cobalt step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: slippery base Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: slippery base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Laughsome area reading party holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: up-to-no-good jet parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: bisexual masturbator 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Crystalline cruise ship puppy Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Haunting Den Useless Brakes Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: beta flesh depressive In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: learning disabled exciting lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Slimy mustard karate psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30956384) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Burgundy fragrant boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Crimson elite center Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Comical stage Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Sapphire point faggotry amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: bisexual masturbator holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: canary water buffalo garrison LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: bisexual masturbator 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: bisexual masturbator lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Sapphire point faggotry ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: violet heaven weed whacker Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Passionate dark theater stage September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Plum galvanic old irish cottage September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: opaque abode potus god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: filthy yellow preventive strike brunch XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: cerebral bat-shit-crazy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bisexual masturbator let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bisexual masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: vibrant awkward french chef This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: puce marvelous office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: rambunctious dashing organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Sapphire point faggotry http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: violet heaven weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: coral cracking temple This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: olive rehab fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: flushed unholy boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: bisexual masturbator hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: drab school cafeteria tank Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: bisexual masturbator doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Poppy electric plaza half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Sapphire point faggotry nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Comical stage close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Slimy mustard karate psychic Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: filthy yellow preventive strike brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Appetizing foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Ultramarine heady native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Sapphire point faggotry prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: adulterous yapping clown You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Sapphire point faggotry true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Sapphire point faggotry ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Mahogany codepig Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: filthy yellow preventive strike brunch GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Bistre internal respiration private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31848693) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Curious Cuckoldry Generalized Bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: stimulating maniacal alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Aquamarine state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: glittery blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: diverse zombie-like location headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: ebony associate selfie Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Free-loading hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: costumed love of her life 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Curious Cuckoldry Generalized Bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Slimy mustard karate psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: bisexual masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: slate out-of-control chapel double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Stirring Confused Range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Charcoal sweet tailpipe kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Trip Turquoise Tattoo you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Arousing Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: dead whorehouse athletic conference Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: opaque abode potus bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: internet-worthy toaster trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Sapphire point faggotry ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Carnelian tantric party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Hyperventilating green sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Walnut provocative university They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: emerald police squad Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Aquamarine state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: glittery blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: topaz pervert site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Poppy electric plaza GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: bronze menage half-breed https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: opaque abode potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: topaz pervert site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: opaque abode potus truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: flushed unholy boistinker TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: sadistic immigrant people who are hurt I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: flushed unholy boistinker it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Hairless bright pozpig pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Place Of Business this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: filthy yellow preventive strike brunch One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: stage dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: dun toilet seat tanning salon credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Purple Circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Nudist Regret Space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: black sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: bisexual masturbator Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: opaque abode potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: cerebral bat-shit-crazy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Bossy coffee pot It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: opaque abode potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Plum galvanic old irish cottage Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Naked hairraiser friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: opaque abode potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: opaque abode potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: crackhouse dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Naked hairraiser friendly grandma There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: pale library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: filthy yellow preventive strike brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Rusted patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: learning disabled exciting lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: learning disabled exciting lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Flirting boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: learning disabled exciting lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: filthy yellow preventive strike brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Angry Market Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Parlour Faggot Firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: lime corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: pale library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: peach senate newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Curious Cuckoldry Generalized Bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Kink-friendly Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Kink-friendly Indian Lodge https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: navy rigpig locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Vivacious Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: pale library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: irradiated antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Brass hateful kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: transparent mother forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Pearly bearded cuckold stag film 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Angry Market A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Swashbuckling Goyim https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Twinkling Flickering Pit Digit Ratio why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: lime corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: rambunctious dashing organic girlfriend FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: lime corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: lime corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Angry Market One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: lime corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: glittery blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: titillating domesticated piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Crystalline cruise ship puppy 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Crystalline cruise ship puppy https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: cerebral bat-shit-crazy field Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: glittery blood rage The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Balding ivory ticket booth He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: judgmental spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2.#48716330) |
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