Is Russia losing this? It kind of feel like they are.
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 14th, 2022 1:40 AM Author: Arousing aqua fanboi
they haven't taken a major city, are barely making progress, taking huge troop/vehicle losses and time isn't on their side with the season changing and with the sanctions destroying their economy.
at minimum, this wasn't worth it even if they are able to occupy all of Ukraine. at worst they will flat out have to leave with their tail between their legs. I am starting to think it will be the latter, unless China bails them out, but I don't see that happening.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144111) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:39 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Russian forces again conducted few ground offensives on March 13, only securing new terrain in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Russian forces predominantly took measures to restore combat readiness and regrouped combat units as of noon local time on March 13.[1] Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Russian forces may intend to resume larger-scale attacks on both axes of advance in the coming week, but will likely take longer to (or may never) cohere the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of Kyiv.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the third day in a row.
Russian forces did not conduct attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and prioritized reinforcing their lines of communication and logistics routes.
Russian and proxy forces successfully captured several towns north of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast on March 13, the only offensive ground actions of the day.
Ukrainian protests in occupied Kherson are likely expanding.
Russia is diluting its international deployments in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to reinforce operations in Ukraine and pulling additional forces from Russia’s far east.
Ukrainian intelligence reported Russia will deploy preexisting pro-Assad Syrian units to Ukraine, in addition to previously announced plans to recruit new Syrian and Libyan mercenaries. These forces are unlikely to enable Russia to favorably change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may provide a longer-term pool of low-quality replacements.
Russian ballistic missiles killed 35 Ukrainians at the Yavoriv military training center near Poland in a likely effort to interdict Western aid deliveries to Ukraine—following up on the Kremlin’s March 12 announcement it will treat international aid shipments as military targets.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144764) |
Date: March 14th, 2022 4:35 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
Are you guys literally this stupid?
Do you know how much food Ukraine ships to the rest of Europe? Look it up.
If you control Ukraine, you can starve Europe at will.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144425) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:44 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Date: March 14th, 2022 4:35 AM
Author: DevryMastersCandidate
Are you guys literally this stupid?
Do you know how much food Ukraine ships to the rest of Europe? Look it up.
If you control Ukraine, you can starve Europe at will.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144425)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144781) |
Date: March 14th, 2022 5:01 AM Author: Floppy messiness
The Russians are not leaving Ukraine intact.
These Bilyan-Gulyan freaks will pay dearly for the Russian boys they killed with their NATO collaborators.
Already this thing is becoming an absolute slaughter. Soon Putin will lose patience and utilities will be cut to every major city. This is a do or die moment for Russia and Putin knows it.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144468) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:31 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
What are you talking about. There is no "Ukraine military."
There are pockets of soldiers, scattered and dispersed among the civilian population. All C&C is lost. They have few tanks or airplanes left, most of which is hidden away in small pockets and not capable of being massed in any meaningful maneuver element.
They were able to use western Ukraine as something of a safe harbor. Even those are getting absolutely pummeled now.
These reports you see of "train carrying children" being blown up? Lol, those were carrying troops, civilian "volunteers" and weapons. Boom dead.
Civilian building? Lol was a makeshift command center. Boom dead.
Everything the MSM tells you the Russians are doing bad, it's a half-truth that tells you exactly what Ukraine has lost. When they emphasize attacks on nuclear plants, that means they've lost infrastructure. When they emphasize attacks on civilian buildings, that means they've lost bases or military stores.
Just look at the amount of shit the Russians are capturing as the Ukrainians go from retreat to retreat. Entire bases and arsenls are being abandaon, the Ukrainians can't run way fast enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSdFNebMQo0
All those cool toys we sent to Ukraine? Boom. Of course, that's what the defense contractors wanted.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144507) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:44 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Date: March 14th, 2022 5:31 AM
Author: DevryMastersCandidate
What are you talking about. There is no "Ukraine military."
There are pockets of soldiers, scattered and dispersed among the civilian population. All C&C is lost. They have few tanks or airplanes left, most of which is hidden away in small pockets and not capable of being massed in any meaningful maneuver element.
They were able to use western Ukraine as something of a safe harbor. Even those are getting absolutely pummeled now.
These reports you see of "train carrying children" being blown up? Lol, those were carrying troops, civilian "volunteers" and weapons. Boom dead.
Civilian building? Lol was a makeshift command center. Boom dead.
Everything the MSM tells you the Russians are doing bad, it's a half-truth that tells you exactly what Ukraine has lost. When they emphasize attacks on nuclear plants, that means they've lost infrastructure. When they emphasize attacks on civilian buildings, that means they've lost bases or military stores.
Just look at the amount of shit the Russians are capturing as the Ukrainians go from retreat to retreat. Entire bases and arsenls are being abandaon, the Ukrainians can't run way fast enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSdFNebMQo0
All those cool toys we sent to Ukraine? Boom. Of course, that's what the defense contractors wanted.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144507)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144782) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 5:37 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
What are you talking about.
Operation Anaconda
Operation Red Wing
FOB Keating
That's just off the top of my head, and that's just in Afghanistan.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144515) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:47 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
ROFL. Hold on for a second.
ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL.
Literally every element involved in Anaconda called it the stupidest clusterfuck ever that needlessly got people killed.
Charging UP, LITERALLY UP, a mountain against entrenched Uzbek, Chechens and other Arab fighters? LJL jesus fucking christ you should hear some of what the people who actually fought there have to say about Anaconda.
They actually ran out of Apaches to support the troops on the ground because they all got shot up by AA, and had to ask the Marines to send in Cobras. They actually had to activate National Guard CSAR because all the conventional Army CSAR units were shot up. They actually had PJs (pararescue) DO A FUCKING AIRBORNE DROP INTO A MINEFIELD in a desperate attempt to rescue wounded, because they couldn't get helicopters in. Because they couldn't get our troops out, they ended up bleeding out.
It was an unequivocable clusterfuck of a disaster, representative of the failures of early GWOT. Franks and Paul Bremer (responsible for early Iraq clusterfucks) are universally hated by soldiers who fought under them
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144790)
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:45 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Date: March 14th, 2022 5:58 AM
Author: DevryMastersCandidate
LJL. I was at Ft. Benning when the 3rd Ranger Battalion returned from Anaconda. Everyone was in awe of them since they were one of the few guys with CIBs and combat patches at the time. But even they were pissed AF at that clusterfuck of an operation.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144536)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144785) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:02 PM Author: Frum menage
HFS YOU WERE AT FORT BENNING!!!
I was actually in Afghanistan in March of 2002. Go sit in the corner and shut the fuck up.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44149074)
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:55 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Anaconda
Result: Coalition victory, Taliban evacuates but suffers heavy casualties
US: 8 dead, Taliban: 80 dead
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144818) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:29 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
LJL just to kill 80 Taliban you:
1. Allow Bin Laden to slip away due to poor planning and mission execution (blocking force failed to get in position)
2. Land your main assault force in the wrong valley, into a minefield and into an ambush
3. Lose helicopters and cause millions of dollars in repair costs/losses (these losses have implications to later missions which no longer have these air assets available)
4. Spend millions of dollars worth of bombs and munitions, to kill 80 Taliban
5. Temporarily drive the remaining Taliban out of the valley, only for them to retake it when we inevitably pull out
6. Get 8 of our guys killed and 72 wounded
Right. Awesome victory.
p.s. That 80 dead number is also probably an exaggeration. Operation Red Wing only involved something like 10 Taliban, but US DOD claimed it was several hundred.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144955) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:38 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
Bringing up the Peninsular War is daft. Bringing up the Winter War shows you're confusing "guerilla warfare" with an "insurgency."
In the former, there remains a semblance of an organized military that is capable of maneuver and unity of command. Portions of the Colonial Army conducted guerilla warfare, for example, Ethan Allen's Green Mountain Boys of Vermont.
In the latter, there is no or limited unity of command. For example, Vietnam is very confusing. On the one hand, you had elements of an insurgency in the activities of the Viet Minh and later the Viet Cong. However, by 1968, particularly after Tet, it was more or less a conventional war fought in the jungle, with the Viet Cong taking orders and coordinating their movements with the NVA. So in that sense, the "insurgency" that began in South Vietnam transformed into a "guerilla war" engaged by a hostile nation (North Vietnam). That is actually when the USA had the greatest chance of victory, but we chickened out.
Learn the difference and maybe I can educate you some more.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144759)
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:00 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
Except what else did the host countries of modern-day insurgencies lack? Or, why don't certain poor, filthy countries develop insurgencies?
There's something called a strong central government and military/police enforcement.
Poor democratic countries go nuts with insurgencies and warlords. See [random African democratic country].
Poor authoritarian countries that brutally execute would be protestors don't have insurgencies or warlords. See [random Arab country pre-GWOT].
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144840) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:42 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Date: March 14th, 2022 5:24 AM
Author: ,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,..,.,.,,..,..,.,,..,.,,.
i don't see how. ukraine's military is getting smashed to bits more and more by the day. the thing to look for is 'battle of the bulge'-style counter-offensives which push the opposing force back in a substantial way. if the defender is constantly on the defense, and is consistently losing ground rather than taking ground back, that's militarily pretty bad. it usually indicates problems with the defender's capacity to resupply or replenish forces.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144497)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144777) |
Date: March 14th, 2022 6:45 AM Author: Sooty awkward windowlicker
Russia is winning.
It’s pretty simple, they will starve/freeze out the Ukrainians in the cities.
Notice there is not a lot of on the ground reporting on what is actually happening in the cities. That’s because they are cold and dark. Limited power, limited internet, limited food. Shops are closed and bare.
Ukrainian media says 2.5m have fled. It’s probably double that.
Taking the western part will be hard, but russia likely does not need to do that by force. The Russians have successfully bombed supply depots etc. and that’s all they really need to do. Once the Russians connect Kiev to the south via the dienper and take control of Odessa, it’s over. That could take a while, and probably will, but it does not matter.
The strategic victory comes in the fall. Oil, but more importantly natural gas and grain, are controlled by russia and the Ukraine. With control over both, Putin can freeze europe, and food prices go way up. Europe won’t starve because it can buy food from abroad as it is sufficiently wealthy, but russia can wreck it economically. This is a problem entirely of Europe’s own making by becoming dependent on Russian food and fuel.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144586)
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:46 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Date: March 14th, 2022 7:14 AM
Author: Gay Grandpa
Teach the eurofags a lesson in morality
Normal men understand when you are outranked, you don't be a catty bitch and try to take down the alpha dog you just push ahead with your own life. Definitely never try to partner up with the alpha dog's enemy to take him down, especially when that guy won't commit lol
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144621)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144789)
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Date: March 14th, 2022 9:12 AM Author: soul-stirring lodge jap
Yes, which is precisely why it will never happen.
Just so we're clear, this is what "flattening a country" looks like:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1291601/middle-east
In every single "battle" picture from Ukraine, the vast majority of structures are intact and unharmed.
In fact, most pictures of "devastated" Ukrainian cities look better than Detroit does today.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144903) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:43 AM Author: hyperactive boistinker
Date: March 14th, 2022 6:45 AM
Author: Drunkard
Russia is winning.
It’s pretty simple, they will starve/freeze out the Ukrainians in the cities.
Notice there is not a lot of on the ground reporting on what is actually happening in the cities. That’s because they are cold and dark. Limited power, limited internet, limited food. Shops are closed and bare.
Ukrainian media says 2.5m have fled. It’s probably double that.
Taking the western part will be hard, but russia likely does not need to do that by force. The Russians have successfully bombed supply depots etc. and that’s all they really need to do. Once the Russians connect Kiev to the south via the dienper and take control of Odessa, it’s over. That could take a while, and probably will, but it does not matter.
The strategic victory comes in the fall. Oil, but more importantly natural gas and grain, are controlled by russia and the Ukraine. With control over both, Putin can freeze europe, and food prices go way up. Europe won’t starve because it can buy food from abroad as it is sufficiently wealthy, but russia can wreck it economically. This is a problem entirely of Europe’s own making by becoming dependent on Russian food and fuel.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144586)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144778) |
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Date: March 14th, 2022 8:19 PM Author: Mind-boggling depressive
This is fucking stupid. The U.S. has stopped growing as much wheat in the past 20 years as Russia and Ukraine grow now.
The west does not need Russia for food or anything other than natural gas - which they'll just have to figure out.
Meanwhile, Russia needs the west for basically every other fucking thing. It isn't even close.
Bread prices will rise in Europe by like 30% one year and then go down to 10% in year 2 and will be flat year 3.
Meanwhile Russia would be shut off from the modern world eating potato soup.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44149154) |
Date: March 14th, 2022 9:24 AM Author: Submissive Hilarious Haunted Graveyard Bbw
All these "Russia is winning! Russia is losing!" threads are dumb as hell.
The conflict is more nuanced and you can't say what "winning" or "losing" is without defining the victory conditions.
Is "winning" just destroying Ukraine? Russia is a nuclear superpower and, if that's the victory condition, it could just nuke Ukraine and win. The ramifications would be disastrous for Russia, but it would "win" if you're defining winning solely as "beating" Ukraine.
Is "winning" defined as regime change in Ukraine? Then no, they're probably losing because I don't think the people will accept a regime change at this point. Too many pissed off people in Ukraine.
Is "winning" defined as some ceasefire where Russia gets to annex Crimea and de facto annex Donbas by turning it into two vassal states? I think there's a good chance that Russia may get that. But is it still "winning" if Russia's stock market, economy, and currency collapses, the country is plunged into a massive depression, and their military is revealed as weaker/less effective than expected?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5058206&forum_id=2#44144939) |
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