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What's going to happen to the incel population in 20-30 years?

Will they even be able to retire or something? I can't imagi...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
The women are also going to be single and childless so they'...
disrespectful bat-shit-crazy den
  04/25/24
Lmao
Self-absorbed laughsome sex offender associate
  04/25/24
Except our entire political class is geared towards the need...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
who do you think the Great Unhoused are? women? The future...
Silver angry friendly grandma background story
  04/25/24
...
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
who cares
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
Video games and alcohol in rented bedrooms in shared houses,...
Passionate canary station ratface
  04/25/24
Throw in weed, porn, live sports on tv and fucking a hooker ...
Maniacal Chad
  04/25/24
This sounds great, actually
Adventurous resort
  04/25/24
(Captain Goyslop)
Cobalt Irradiated Set Half-breed
  04/27/24
Way of the Future
primrose circlehead national
  04/27/24
none of you have uncles or aunts that just never married/lef...
Glittery maroon theater lettuce
  04/25/24
Some talented Jews will be able to squeeze the last dollars ...
Sooty frum athletic conference orchestra pit
  04/25/24
Suicide as a service
Heady flatulent foreskin kitty
  04/25/24
this is a really good post, ive never heard anyone frame the...
Brass doctorate
  04/25/24
I think GOP/Trump has the incel backing now, but only becaus...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
...
Brass doctorate
  04/25/24
good post man
Brass doctorate
  04/25/24
spiritual ascension
gay heaven candlestick maker
  04/25/24
...
Brass doctorate
  04/25/24
crazy way of selling getting high everyday
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
but it works
Sable psychic
  04/26/24
20-30 years? There's only 6 years left.
sapphire contagious sneaky criminal indirect expression
  04/25/24
i still dont understand what an "incel" is.
buck-toothed casino sandwich
  04/25/24
maybe because you're a retarded faggot
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
harsh but fair
Silver angry friendly grandma background story
  04/25/24
atleast for the men, retiring becomes easier. no woman to le...
Soggy drab karate goal in life
  04/25/24
what % of men do you think are going to be gainfully employe...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
probably higher than the % of men that have to worry about t...
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
...
Soggy drab karate goal in life
  04/25/24
Have you seen/read A Clockwork Orange? Men with nothing to l...
costumed kitty cat school
  04/25/24
so nothing changes
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
right
costumed kitty cat school
  04/25/24
figure it into the pop graph as a whole. Ill take your 30 ye...
soul-stirring skinny woman electric furnace
  04/25/24
selling out workers for open borders cheap labor isnt "...
buck-toothed casino sandwich
  04/25/24
i think you're missing the nuances of what im trying to brin...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
how much uber stock do you own you peabrained kike
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
?
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
They'll be taxed to death to pay for handouts to favored gro...
Adventurous resort
  04/25/24
i dont think men who know theyre going to die alone and unlo...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
you're being overly optimistic
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
what part of what i said seems optimistic to you
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
incel gamers participating in the gig economy
Sable psychic
  04/25/24
Not sure if I met any irl “incels.” Most of my f...
bearded apoplectic step-uncle's house love of her life
  04/25/24
i've never met anyone from idaho so i guess that state doesn...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/25/24
lollercausting HARD ITT
plum home
  04/25/24
i guess we'll see what south korea does since the problem is...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/26/24
yeah bro 1500 girls fucked and i am PANICKING now
nyuug
  04/29/24
it's good u can laugh at yourself, gookcel
blathering stirring piazza stock car
  04/26/24
They will achieve total victory and their oppressors will fa...
filthy hell
  04/26/24
Major financial drain on society. No children paying tax...
Brilliant Internet-worthy Shrine Mother
  04/26/24
Given that the 'rest of us' disproportionately includes sing...
know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef
  04/26/24
imagine what kind of soul thinks about this issue for a mome...
rose curious church
  04/26/24
first day? xo is full of exactly the type of people who t...
elite wonderful crackhouse
  04/27/24
How do nonincels differ here? They also get sick and rack up...
Sooty frum athletic conference orchestra pit
  04/27/24
xo will always have azns
aquamarine galvanic address antidepressant drug
  04/26/24
cant wait for sex robots that are so real u dont even need a...
trip translucent nibblets
  04/27/24
shrews will make them illegal
Underhanded mauve base coldplay fan
  04/27/24
Retire in Thailand, Vietnam, philipjnes
Flirting nursing home
  04/27/24
Why Asia though? Do you like to be amongst chinks?
Sooty frum athletic conference orchestra pit
  04/27/24
Cheap housing, cheap bj?
Flirting nursing home
  04/27/24
the prob is that perhaps in 15-20 years SE asia is actually ...
trip translucent nibblets
  04/27/24
180 pitch for CIA deep staters to get incels to support fore...
.,.,.,...,,,,..,.,.,..,...,
  04/29/24


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:06 AM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

Will they even be able to retire or something? I can't imagine our increasingly woman-dominated/minded political class wanting to expend resources to help incel men.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608585)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:08 AM
Author: disrespectful bat-shit-crazy den

The women are also going to be single and childless so they'll have incentive to provide safety nets for both of them

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608588)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:10 AM
Author: Self-absorbed laughsome sex offender associate

Lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608591)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:11 AM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

Except our entire political class is geared towards the needs of women. Whenever women want or need something, the system cracks the whip to make it happen. The media and pols on both parties endlessly talk about abortion because it affects women. No one GAF about worsening male mortality rates. If anything the women, who want nothing to do with incel men, would prefer to let the incel dudes starve so they can have their share of social security.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608593)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 3:29 PM
Author: Silver angry friendly grandma background story

who do you think the Great Unhoused are? women?

The future is here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609401)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 3:30 PM
Author: Sable psychic



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609405)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:09 AM
Author: Sable psychic

who cares

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608589)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:11 AM
Author: Passionate canary station ratface

Video games and alcohol in rented bedrooms in shared houses, living off meager savings and government assistance

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608594)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 5:02 PM
Author: Maniacal Chad

Throw in weed, porn, live sports on tv and fucking a hooker 2-4 times a year and you’ve described a plausible Man Utopia.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609732)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 5:10 PM
Author: Adventurous resort

This sounds great, actually

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609752)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 7:20 AM
Author: Cobalt Irradiated Set Half-breed

(Captain Goyslop)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612763)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 1:31 PM
Author: primrose circlehead national

Way of the Future

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47613297)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:19 AM
Author: Glittery maroon theater lettuce

none of you have uncles or aunts that just never married/left home/stayed back to take care of the parents?

i remember a great uncle died when i was a kid. smallest funeral id ever been to. it was just my immediate family and grand parents/few cousins. like 15 people total. one of the few coffins i had to carry from the funeral home to the grave.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608614)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:23 AM
Author: Sooty frum athletic conference orchestra pit

Some talented Jews will be able to squeeze the last dollars out of them by providing them with quick deaths or some similar way to escape dying poor and alone. We just have to wait for that new service to be created (biz idea).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608626)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:51 AM
Author: Heady flatulent foreskin kitty

Suicide as a service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608777)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:33 AM
Author: Brass doctorate

this is a really good post, ive never heard anyone frame the incel question this way wrt women dominating the political class and long term ramifications of huge swathes of incel precariats being at their mercy

its not just a funny 4chan/hyper online thing anymore ... incels who plan to/who will live out their lives aren't going to organize politically to get their gibs or do anything to mitigate the damage shrews will do to them with their votes

where does the incel vote go? trump? whos taking care of single male working class slaves?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608652)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:59 AM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

I think GOP/Trump has the incel backing now, but only because they see it as a reflexive punch against the women who loathe them (because those women also loathe Trump).

I think as demographics kick in and GOP becomes less competitive nationally over the next decade, incel men are going to get screwed. Mainstream GOP will expend almost no energy to save them from getting fucked by gynocratic libs.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608709)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:45 AM
Author: Brass doctorate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608754)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 10:34 AM
Author: Brass doctorate

good post man

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608659)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:01 AM
Author: gay heaven candlestick maker

spiritual ascension

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608711)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:45 AM
Author: Brass doctorate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608755)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 4:56 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

crazy way of selling getting high everyday

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609713)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 10:22 PM
Author: Sable psychic

but it works

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612355)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:11 AM
Author: sapphire contagious sneaky criminal indirect expression

20-30 years? There's only 6 years left.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608721)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:13 AM
Author: buck-toothed casino sandwich

i still dont understand what an "incel" is.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608726)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:47 AM
Author: Sable psychic

maybe because you're a retarded faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608761)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 3:31 PM
Author: Silver angry friendly grandma background story

harsh but fair

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609409)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 11:53 AM
Author: Soggy drab karate goal in life

atleast for the men, retiring becomes easier. no woman to leech off of him. no kids also.

emotional stability is the bigger issue.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608781)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:04 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

what % of men do you think are going to be gainfully employed and productive, never mind diligently saving for retirement, if they know they're consigned to being a genetic dead end with no spouse to care for?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609034)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:06 PM
Author: Sable psychic

probably higher than the % of men that have to worry about that stupid bullshit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609047)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 4:44 PM
Author: Soggy drab karate goal in life



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609681)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 12:01 PM
Author: costumed kitty cat school

Have you seen/read A Clockwork Orange? Men with nothing to lose rape/pillage and form gangs. Society will try to control them through propaganda and technology. Everything will be really shitty and women will have purple hair and dildo statues adorning their apartments.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608796)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 12:13 PM
Author: Sable psychic

so nothing changes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608804)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 12:26 PM
Author: costumed kitty cat school

right

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608812)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 1:13 PM
Author: soul-stirring skinny woman electric furnace

figure it into the pop graph as a whole. Ill take your 30 years as the point

2054. The final boomers are about 100. They get a lot of media attention. "Last remaining Woodstock concert-goers attend reunion" featuring a photo of 4 of them, etc.

Xers are 75-90s. Many will have been able to retire. Probably the last retiree generation. They will be majority white, obviously. Almost all will have children, but far fewer grandkids. They will have the best economic status among living generations and will spend heavily on their very few grandkids. They will finally get an Xer potus, in her 70s. Probably someone retro, like Chelsea Clinton.

Millennials are retirement age, but largely unmarried and debt-ridden. There will be endless national conversations about how they cannot retire. As many as half of them do not have kids to help with bills. The government will eventually spend heavily to subsidize them and this will start around the late 50s.

Zoomers are now in their prime working years. They are majority non-white. Even fewer marriages and kids than millennials. They are renters. Their income will go directly to the superrich millennials and Xers who control all the subscription services and real estate. Zoomers own nothing and barely have a middle class.

Alphas are in their 20s, white a smaller minority than ever. There have never been jobs for them. Entry level jobs are all automated and AI, and professional careers seem pointless. They need massive welfare but the Millennial retirement spending and health care will eat up all the fed dollars. They will resist this and despise millennials, but lose. Without marriage, children, or money, and predominantly hispanic, they will finalize the third worldification. They will justifiably feel no loyalty or love at all for the US, which has delivered them nothing. Mass despair. Civil unrest. Unravelling.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608896)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 1:39 PM
Author: buck-toothed casino sandwich

selling out workers for open borders cheap labor isnt "automation" or "ai" lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608916)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:41 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

i think you're missing the nuances of what im trying to bring up.

the issue is that while women are making more money and having higher status jobs, more and more men - incels - are checking out of life and doing random gig jobs to pay rent for a shitbox studio and smoke weed all day. both groups loathe each other, and the former is not going to want to subsidize the retirement or welfare of the latter, which is effectively what will have to happen for any hypothetical government intervention.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609279)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:43 PM
Author: Sable psychic

how much uber stock do you own you peabrained kike

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609287)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:47 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609331)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 1:44 PM
Author: Adventurous resort

They'll be taxed to death to pay for handouts to favored groups. They will not be permitted to retain the savings they accumulate from being single, childless and keeps to themselves

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47608933)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:06 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

i dont think men who know theyre going to die alone and unloved are going to keep striving to earn income that can be taxed. i think it's far more likely that a huge % of incels will work random doordash gigs here and there to pay rent for a shitbox, smoke weed and play vidya games. it's going to be a question, IMO, of if and how the govt will do anything to take care of them at retirement age

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609049)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:37 PM
Author: Sable psychic

you're being overly optimistic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609223)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:47 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

what part of what i said seems optimistic to you

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609333)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 2:48 PM
Author: Sable psychic

incel gamers participating in the gig economy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609347)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 3:34 PM
Author: bearded apoplectic step-uncle's house love of her life

Not sure if I met any irl “incels.” Most of my friends get married eventually or find someone. Very rare dudes just float off and don’t form any sort of “movement.”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609420)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 4:06 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

i've never met anyone from idaho so i guess that state doesnt exist

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47609533)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2024 8:56 PM
Author: plum home

lollercausting HARD ITT

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47610193)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 8:22 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

i guess we'll see what south korea does since the problem is orders of magnitude worse there

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612150)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 29th, 2024 5:05 PM
Author: nyuug (Gangnam WGWAG Playboy)

yeah bro 1500 girls fucked and i am PANICKING now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47619244)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 9:49 PM
Author: blathering stirring piazza stock car

it's good u can laugh at yourself, gookcel

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612330)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 8:24 PM
Author: filthy hell

They will achieve total victory and their oppressors will face millennia of unyielding pain.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612156)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 8:25 PM
Author: Brilliant Internet-worthy Shrine Mother

Major financial drain on society.

No children paying taxes.

Many will just be living on SSDI and eventually social secusiry poasting online.

Eventualy, will each rack up millions in medical bills the rest of us pay for.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612162)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 9:41 PM
Author: know-it-all bisexual stead roast beef

Given that the 'rest of us' disproportionately includes single women in lucrative white collar jobs, I have a feeling we'll finally get bipartisan consensus on axing welfare benefits.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612319)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 9:42 PM
Author: rose curious church

imagine what kind of soul thinks about this issue for a moment and reflexively goes to coin coin coin

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612323)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 7:32 AM
Author: elite wonderful crackhouse

first day?

xo is full of exactly the type of people who think their fraud lawyer money makes them your Better

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612771)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 5:42 AM
Author: Sooty frum athletic conference orchestra pit

How do nonincels differ here? They also get sick and rack up millions in medical bills.

It's more about the $ they generated during their lifetime. Being married doesn't make you wealthy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612728)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2024 9:43 PM
Author: aquamarine galvanic address antidepressant drug

xo will always have azns

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612326)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 6:00 AM
Author: trip translucent nibblets

cant wait for sex robots that are so real u dont even need actual slimpits

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612732)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 6:22 AM
Author: Underhanded mauve base coldplay fan

shrews will make them illegal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612735)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 6:34 AM
Author: Flirting nursing home

Retire in Thailand, Vietnam, philipjnes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612742)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 7:06 AM
Author: Sooty frum athletic conference orchestra pit

Why Asia though? Do you like to be amongst chinks?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612759)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 7:29 AM
Author: Flirting nursing home

Cheap housing, cheap bj?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47612768)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 27th, 2024 1:20 PM
Author: trip translucent nibblets

the prob is that perhaps in 15-20 years SE asia is actually not that cheap to live... esp if the USD goes to hell it wont seem veddy cheap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47613265)



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Date: April 29th, 2024 4:04 PM
Author: .,.,.,...,,,,..,.,.,..,...,


180 pitch for CIA deep staters to get incels to support forever wars in the developing world

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5521352&forum_id=2#47619011)