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Stats/polisci dual-PhD here: here's why 99% of public opinion polls are junk sps
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:46 PM Author: contagious brethren They rarely ever measure how strongly people care about an issue. It doesn't matter if 99% of people think we need to fight climate change, because there are 500 other issues that worry them more, and that you didn't ask them about, and that you probably don't have the balls to ask them about. That's what's real. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619608) |
Date: April 29th, 2024 6:47 PM Author: Out-of-control stock car I thought you triple majored in schizophrenia. Wow, you learn something new every day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619609) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:54 PM Author: Passionate abode hissy fit (Professional blogger) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619625) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:58 PM Author: Out-of-control stock car Ty for the compliment of professional (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619637) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 7:10 PM Author: Passionate abode hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619671) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:57 PM Author: contagious brethren ljl@ Palantir using "AI" as a substitute for actual scientific modeling of human beliefs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619634) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:49 PM Author: heady bronze property 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619614) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:51 PM Author: Shivering Burgundy Ratface Also, how many people who care about climate change are going to set themselves up on a road or devote their lives to suing Exxon? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619615) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 6:54 PM Author: contagious brethren It was the signature issue we used to dunk on polisci shitheads when I was in a community of people who did nothing but that, many years ago. It was the biggest in-joke if u were doing survey design. The "I agree that human beings are causing climate change" question. You could always reliably get over 75% of people to agree with that statement at any time since like 1998, but it's a totally meaningless statistic. You can't do SHIT with it. Nevertheless you'd see the question get asked and the results get reported. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619623) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 7:18 PM Author: magical charcoal university goal in life In 2007 let alone 1998 the only reason to design the survey question that way was to influence public opinion/debate. The goal at the time was to make it an issue that actually moves votes 20 years later, and they were very successful in achieving that outcome. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619686) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 10:02 PM Author: contagious brethren Dude these people doing the studies are given limits on survey length and design. A good survey needs like 20 questions but these bitches are doing their surveys in public spaces and no one will respond to a long survey. They have to do this for class credit or something. The faculty behind it were either impossible to identify or they were people u never heard of who never showed up at any conferences. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620170) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 7:12 PM Author: Emerald awkward turdskin (Bro who read Nasim Taleb 15 years after everyone else) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619676) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 10:04 PM Author: contagious brethren Didn't he only becum famous after the 2008 crash? Good on him for saying something literally everyone in higher academia already understood on some level since the 1960s. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620182) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 7:14 PM Author: Emerald awkward turdskin There's a Jew economist who wrote a book about what he called "quadratic voting", which was basically a way to account for this in voting. Long story short, it's an underhanded way to get Jews more power. Big shocker. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619678) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 7:24 PM Author: magical charcoal university goal in life It’s also still basically impossible to model the effects of no excuse mail in voting being essentially ubiquitous now. My pet theory is that all the chest thumping that libs are doing about Dobbs as a political liability is really mostly just the result of making it way easier to vote, so especially in midterms NPC libs can be easily turned out to vote and they don’t even have to take their eyes off their phones screen to do it. The problem is that it’s pretty hard for cons to persuade anyone outside of their strong partisan group that this change is bad and should be reversed. The cons attacks on mail in voting devolve into screeds about bamboo ballots and DNC super criminals orchestrating the most daring and sweeping feat of political malfeasance since the Magna Carta. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47619700) |
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Date: April 29th, 2024 10:07 PM Author: contagious brethren This wasn't about voting. The best researcher I knew was Canadian. He's retired now but he was a god. He could send teams to places like Iran where Americans can't go, and figure out political shit based on how many people were wearing some type of religious iconography on their jewelry and a few other things. He said he was out of the country before they could figure out what he was measuring, which was always something like "obedience to authority." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620188) |
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Date: April 30th, 2024 1:30 AM Author: contagious brethren https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1785030594164060405?t=cLtC7NBhibnrz9KE437S5g&s=19 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620564) |
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Date: April 30th, 2024 1:45 AM Author: jet electric prole party of the first part what about polls for political candidates. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620574) |
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Date: April 30th, 2024 1:50 AM Author: contagious brethren Dat 15% MOE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620584) |
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Date: April 30th, 2024 1:46 AM Author: contagious brethren https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1785006429625074159?t=e75Qmkc11mraxgYbm_9cVQ&s=19 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5522860&forum_id=2#47620575) |