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Purdue should go undefeated
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:05 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Remaining schedule:
Oct 9 at Penn State 4:30 PM Oct 16 vs Wisconsin 5:30 PM Oct 23 vs Michigan TBA Oct 30 at Northwestern TBA Nov 6 at Iowa TBA Nov 13 vs Ohio State TBA Nov 20 vs Indiana TBA
Their 3 toughest games (Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan) are all at home. Ohio State was exposed against Northwestern. Michigan was exposed against Notre Dame. And Wisconsin should have lost at Arizona. |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:09 PM Author: rusted hyperventilating skinny woman institution they'll certainly be favored in all their remaining games until they lose. But running the table against Wisconsin, OSU and Michigan is an extremely tall order. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434550) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:11 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site It's tough to see any of their offenses keeping up with Orton, but I do get the feeling that they drop at least 1. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434564) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:09 PM Author: Big-titted Very Tactful Property Are we really doing that well? I don't pay much attention. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434551) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:10 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Your QB has 17 TD's and 0 INT's. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434557) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:11 PM Author: Erotic Pistol 51-0 vs. Syr
59-7 vs. Ball st.
38-30 @ Ill
41-16 @ ND |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:13 PM Author: Big-titted Very Tactful Property They beat Notre Dame that bad? When I followed football, ND was a powerhouse. That is impressive. Is our QB still Drew Breeze? No, it's some new guy, isn't it. I can't recall the name right now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434576) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:15 PM Author: shivering plum hall "Is our QB still Drew Breeze?"
Ummm...no. |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:21 PM Author: Cowardly curious selfie point do you watch tv? i know you dont listen to new music. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434609) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:28 PM Author: Big-titted Very Tactful Property No, I don't have a TV here. Even if I did, I wouldn't watch football. I'd rather castigate people on this board.
So, WHO is the QB gid demmit? |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:38 PM Author: big stead Kyle Orton (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434699) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:39 PM Author: Big-titted Very Tactful Property Yep, sounds like a cornfed name. He's probably an in-stater. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434703) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:26 PM Author: infuriating olive crackhouse queen of the night This is a very funny post. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434630) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:31 PM Author: big stead Who is this Breeze? Is Bob Griese not there anymore? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434665) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:32 PM Author: shivering plum hall Is Doug Flutie still at BC? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434670) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:38 PM Author: big stead I think he's hurt, I didn't see him in there when I saw them play earlier this year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434696) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:38 PM Author: Big-titted Very Tactful Property LOL. Shut up. Young punks... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434700) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:41 PM Author: big stead sorry, was too easy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434713) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:10 PM Author: Erotic Pistol they should win all 3 of those games considered on an individual basis, but collectively the chances of them being 3-0 in them is very small. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434556) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:10 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Maybe in year's past, but man, none of those 3 teams look very impressive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434559) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:12 PM Author: Erotic Pistol okay, say you give them a 75% chance of winning each game. That adds up to only a 42% chance of winning all 3. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434572) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:13 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I think that 42% sounds about right. It's very tough to go undefeated, and yet none of those 3 teams is that scary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434575) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:19 PM Author: Erotic Pistol well, that was just against those teams, here is what I would say for the whole rest of the season:
@ PSU 85% chance
Wisc 65% chance
Mich 70% chance
@ NW 80% chance
@ Iowa 60% chance
OSU 65% chance
Indy 95% chance
that adds up to a 17% chance of going undefeated |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:20 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I might increase the % 5-10 points for a few of these, but overall, this looks pretty solid. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434607) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:24 PM Author: Erotic Pistol I think @ Iowa could really be a trap. They've been two incredibly different teams on the road vs. at home. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434620) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:25 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I agree with that somewhat, but they only beat a bad Iowa State team 17-10 at home. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434628) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:27 PM Author: Erotic Pistol I think the game wasn't as close as the score would indicate, but on the whole point taken. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434643) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:29 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site You're correct on that point. It was 17-3 when Iowa State scored a meaningless 40 yeard TD with :36 seconds left. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434655) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:24 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler I don't know how you determined that OSU has a better chance of beating Purdue than Michigan does.
OSU has not been impressive in a single game this year. They lost to Northfuckingwestern and barely beat Marshall. OSU will finish the season on the outside of the Top25 looking in. |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:25 PM Author: Erotic Pistol I don't know how you determine that I determined that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434629) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:27 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler You said Purdue has a 70% chance of beating Mich, and a 65% chance of beating OSU. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434640) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:30 PM Author: Erotic Pistol yeah, you're right. But I kind of discounted the chances that late in the season because its so far away. That takes the possiblity of injury, season gone awry, etc into account.
I agree that Mich is better than OSU though. |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:26 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Michigan got beaten pretty solidly by ND, who Purdue crushed, and they slipped by San Diego State at home. Ohio State never looks good, but they have a knack for winning games. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434634) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:30 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler It actually wasn't a crushing defeat. Both teams played very sloppy ball and turned the ball over. It was the first road game ever for a true frosh QB in ND stadium, of all places.
Michigan has dominated the last two games, while OSU has looked awful. And they didn't have "knack" to beat Northfuckingwestern. |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:34 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Those are both fair points. ND actually outgained Purdue. And I won't dispute that Michigan has looked better. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434680) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:27 PM Author: rusted hyperventilating skinny woman institution OSU isn't good, but they have a knack for winning close, ugly games. Just look at that national title team.
I expect OSU to have 2 losses (NU and Purdue) when Michigan gets there in late November. |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:32 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler There's no way they're winning this week AND next. I could see them dropping both, but definitely one. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1434671) |
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Date: October 4th, 2004 2:36 PM Author: rusted hyperventilating skinny woman institution Wisconsin has done no more to impress than OSU had going into this past week. They beat a very mediocre Arizona team 9-7. They only scored 16 against a mediocre Penn State team. Granted, they haven't lost yet, but that pathetic Arizona game was their only road game and Columbus is a bitch of a place to play. I feel pretty good picking OSU to win that one.
As for Iowa, I can't figure them out. Could go either way, but I'd bet on the Buckeyes again because of their defense. Iowa is turnover prone, as you saw first hand. |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 12:31 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler Hell yeah. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1465347) |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:16 PM Author: razzmatazz state headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1465440) |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:20 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker You just say that because I'm high on UVA. Great LBs, balanced O, good qb - they are the best combo of O and D in the ACC.
Miami has phenomenal athletes on D, but, with Berlin, the passing game won't do much. UVA should be able to beat UM's running game. Groh has been huge at VA so far. FSU hasn't been impressive offensively with anybody at qb - and the running game has been erratic because of mediocre/erratic o-line play. |
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Date: November 8th, 2004 6:53 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler Douche. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1621389) |
Date: October 10th, 2004 12:44 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker Purdue is, probably, the 3rd or 4th best team in the big 10 now, depending on placement of Wisconsin (if you talk about ability to play, and not record). Northwestern, now, is probably just behind Wisconsin.
Minnesota and Michigan seem to be the two best teams in the conference. Minnesota's defense is suspect (having given up a lot of yards to Michigan and a few other teams), but, with the way that the running game usually works, it doesn't give the opposition the ball very much. Even against a highly effective NU offense, MN didn't allow many points. MN plays a disciplined game. Michigan could either be the best or second best team in the conference (the three turnovers are what kept it close yesterday). Michigan was beat by ND because Michigan had a lot of struggles converting in the red zone. With the progress of the MI qb, and with the weapons available, it's likely that UM will have the most potent all-around offense by the end of the season.
Purdue, by contrast, has struggled against mediocre teams like PSU. Purdue thumped ND, but, to keep in mind, Purdue is not likely to improve much offensively by the end of the season. PU's qb was the only starting qb in the b10 with 10+ games of starting experience. ND's weakness was the secondary. It doesn't take much to see that a veteran qb would be able to take advantage of that. Of course, ND was pass-happy on PU, which should make MI fans quite happy.
Wisconsin is the wild-card. The defense has been phenomenal, but mainly against 'running-teams' with weak running-games. We'll learn more when WI plays PU this week. If PU wins, then the PU/MI game is for the big10 title. Otherwise, it could be a split year between WI and MI. Purdue is too weak defensively (giving up tons of passing yards against PSU) to be considered the best.
Michigan has shown itself to be the only defense in the b10 capable of playing the run and pass. And, it seems, MI is the most effective offense with the most potential for the rest of the season (as long as the qb and rb improve).
Purdue will probably beat WI, but will lose to MI (my call). NU will give PU fits. But PU should be able to win the rest of its games (PU will beat tOSU, I think, this year).
I also call UVA to beat UM this year. UVA has been the most impressive team in the ACC this year, IMO. |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:19 PM Author: razzmatazz state headpube Subject: I suspect you'd say UVa beat FSu this weekend too after FSU's pitful performance against Syracuse yesterday. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1465455) |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:22 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker Well, I haven't studied the ACC as much as I should have studied it, and I'm hesitant to predict teams to go undefeated (who knows what snags may arise), but I think that UVA is the best in the ACC and better than FSU, but I am having trouble calling UVA to beat FSU and go undefeated. It's my own mental block. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1465472) |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:38 PM Author: ruby church kitty cat Purdue will go only as far as Kyle Orton will take them.
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:43 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker Nope. The team bus. Orton isn't great. He's solid. He's put up excellent numbers against weak secondaries. Two picks against PSU don't mean much, but against better secondaries, PU will struggle. They will also struggle against teams that can move the ball effectively because those other teams will be able to move the ball, and, play better defense.
ND moved the ball easily, passing, against PU. PU also gave up over 200 yards on the ground to IL. MN and MI should have a good time racking up yards, if nothing else, against PU. |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:49 PM Author: azure ratface Lionel and Shack: do either of you remember the Purdue/Michigan game in '00? I wouldn't be surprised if Curry plays the role of Whitley in this year's matchup. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1465578) |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:54 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker That was the game during which MI led 28-10 at the half and lost 32-31, or something like that, right?
Curry, as far as I know, will probably be third or fourth on the depth chart this week. He bit badly on a number of fakes, and MI has Mason and Hall to step up ahead of them. MI will also probably play D more like last year than in '00.
MI has a better D this year. If you watched the '00 game closely, you'd see that PU never really was stopped aside from a few bad calls in the first half. PU should have been tied. MI's D is better, and the O, relative to the PU D, is better this year. MI's O was more experienced in '00 with AT and the Oline and Henson, but PU's D was a lot better in '00, too. |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 1:58 PM Author: azure ratface Yeah, that was the game. I also expect that Michigan will win this year, but it seems like Carr is unable to hide Curry even when he's 3rd on the depth chart. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1465611) |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 2:00 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker It probably won't mean as much this year because of the overall wealth of talent in MI's DBs. If MI sits in a nickel D, they could play Shazor, Jackson, Mundy, Hall, and Mason without breaking a sweat. That's also assuming that MI wouldn't just blitz a lot using Curry or something - more like last year.
Curry probably got his last real shot yesterday, and he seemed to blow it. |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 8:13 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler I find it a little bit ridiculous that Purdue has gone from number 15 to number 5 in the past two weeks, considering that their only two conference wins have been close, and have come against teams with a combined 0-6 record in the Big 10, and 4-8 overall.
Oh well, the cream will rise to the top. |
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Date: October 10th, 2004 8:18 PM Author: rusted hyperventilating skinny woman institution I agree with this. I'm not sure why Wisconsin has been dememed a 'not top 10 team', but Purdue is suddenly top 5. Wisconsin at least has a BIG road win against OSU on its resume. Purdue has beaten nobody even remotely close to being ranked yet and has looked very beatable vs Penn State and Illinois, who will both be near the very bottom of the TTT Big 11. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1467232) |
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Date: October 18th, 2004 12:51 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Okay, so clearly I was wrong about Purdue, but now the question becomes, "Will Wisconsin lose before the bowls?"
Oct 23 vs Northwestern Nov 6 vs Minnesota Nov 13 at Michigan State Nov 20 at Iowa
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Date: October 18th, 2004 4:40 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker Well, MSU will probably not beat Wisconsin. MN has huge problems following losses to Michigan (12 years in a row, MN has lost after losing to MI). MSU, similarly, plays poorly after playing MI - win or lose.
MN is a bit unpredictable. Of course, WI has a great D-line, so I'd take WI. NWU could make it interesting if they manage to spread teh field with lots of short passing routes, but Purdue didn't find much success with that until they injured WI's D-line.
Iowa would be the favorite to do it. Wisconsin looks like tOSU a few years ago. Good defense due to a great D-line, but they haven't been world-beaters. Of course, tOSU needed a huge play against PU to win.. and WI just got a huge play (fumble).. it could happen that WI goes undefeated, but I don't like it on the grounds that I don't think that WI has played like a world-beating team.
I would like WI against Oklahoma and Auburn, but the jury is out on SC. |
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Date: October 18th, 2004 4:44 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker Interesting. In my call, I said that PU would beat WI, but I was fairly good in my assessment of the teams - aside from the post MI letdown from MN.
So far, I'd say:
WI MI MSU/PU/Iowa MN NWU tOSU/PSU ILL IN |
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Date: October 18th, 2004 4:51 PM Author: vigorous ceo forum WI
PU
UM
MN
MSU/Iowa/NU/OSU/PSU -- This group is still too tough to decipher
IL/IN |
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Date: October 18th, 2004 4:53 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker I'm still not sold on PU's defense. Against decent offenses, they've given up yards. Of course, we'll know more next week. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1508376) |
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Date: October 18th, 2004 4:56 PM Author: vigorous ceo forum No, their defense isn't great. Hell, we (PSU) got more passing yards against their defense than Orton did against ours. But as long as Orton and Stubblefield keep scoring--and against anyone but Wisconsin, they'll have no trouble--they'll be fine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1508394) |
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Date: October 24th, 2004 9:10 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker So, how's that PU looking there? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1542012) |
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Date: October 24th, 2004 8:59 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren hahahaha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1541964) |
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Date: October 24th, 2004 9:03 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot the big 10 sucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1541983) |
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Date: October 24th, 2004 11:32 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren If by sucks you mean "is generally underrated in the national polls because very good teams often finish with a loss due to the fact that the top half of the conference is perenially strong" then I agree. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1542627) |
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Date: October 30th, 2004 4:36 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot hhaha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1572374) |
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Date: October 30th, 2004 3:32 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot Bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1572103) |
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Date: October 30th, 2004 4:03 PM Author: pontificating elastic band Orton for Heisman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1572220) |
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Date: October 30th, 2004 4:26 PM Author: Slimy really tough guy Haha, nice bump. What a fraudulent TTT that team turned out to be.
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Date: October 31st, 2004 1:27 AM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren No kidding. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1574383) |
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Date: October 31st, 2004 2:24 AM Author: ocher incel piazza Good game against that mighty Baylor squad. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1574473) |
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Date: October 31st, 2004 2:45 AM Author: charismatic field gunner A&M lost to Baylor. The showdown with OU means nothing now.
How the fuck did you guys lose to a team you beat 73-10 the previous year? |
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Date: October 31st, 2004 2:36 AM Author: rebellious theater stage still got bitch-slapped by wisconsin! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1574514) |
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Date: October 31st, 2004 2:49 AM Author: charismatic field gunner "Ohio State was exposed against Northwestern. Michigan was exposed against Notre Dame. And Wisconsin should have lost at Arizona."
Based on what Purdue has done the past three weeks, I would confidently venture that they are the ones that got exposed.
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Date: October 31st, 2004 12:27 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren "Michigan was exposed against Notre Dame."
Yeah, "exposed" as a team whose 2nd and 3rd best players were true freshmen with no experience at that point. The Michigan team today is a completely different beast than it was in September, and would absolutely dismantle Notre Dame. |
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Date: September 25th, 2005 5:50 PM Author: Passionate Lay Main People Yeah, they really took care of Notre Dame this year. What's your excuse now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#3902708) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 12:45 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1579633) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 12:49 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Wow. Purdue has really hit the skids after that Wisconsin game. Meanwhile, Wisconsin still looks like a strong bet to go undefeated. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1579647) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 1:15 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot yea you pretty much got owned (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1579773) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 1:16 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I didn't get owned at all. Look at the 3rd post on thi string, where I said that I expected them to drop at least 1 of these games. Posting that they should win all of their remaining games didn't mean that I thought that they would. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1579782) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:18 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren Tell the one about about how margin of victory matters to the BCS computers again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581189) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:28 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler They should come up with a system where you get penalized for an asskicking at least.
Fucking ASU #6. |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:29 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Are you talking about the individual computer rankings, or the overall BCS rankings? Because, clearly margin of victory plays a part in the overall BCS rankings, as I have said. I will explain if you want. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581274) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:41 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren Yup, but we have you (in the other thread) repeatedly saying that it matters TO THE COMPUTERS. I explained to you that it didn't and hadn't since 2002, cited sources, and you never replied. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581366) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:43 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site You misunderstood me then, and you still misunderstand me now. My position has always been that margin of victory doesn't matter in the individual computer rankings, but obviously it matters in the overall BCS rankings as it alters the AP and Coaches' Polls. Believe me, I know what I'm talking about. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581384) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:45 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren Said you, in response to someone else (i.e. not me) trying to tell you for the first time that margin of victory didn't mean "anything" to the computers:
"It doesn't mean everything, but it certainly means something, which is why the Utes are currently doing so well in the computer rankings."
(http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=99623#1555930) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:49 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site How many times do I have to explain this? I'm talking about the overall BCS computer rankings, not the individualized computer rankings like Sagarin and Massey. It's really not that difficult to understand. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581412) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:56 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren Uh, I don't believe I've ever heard anyone refer to any such thing as the "overall BCS *computer* rankings" before.
If you can find me one reference in ESPN or SI or some other respected source where the phrase "computer rankings" is used to refer to the overall rankings, I might believe you. |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 6:02 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Not that I need to defend myself, but a quick google search comes up with plenty of hits for BCS Computer Rankings, referring to the over all rankings. Here's the 1st one that came up on my search:
www.sciencenews.org/articles/20040904/mathtrek.asp
"In the absence of sufficient detail to reproduce the official BCS computer rankings, they add, this simple random walker ranking scheme can be useful for analyzing the effects of possible changes in the BCS formula."
Frankly, looking back at the previous thread, I'm shocked at how badly you misread my posts. I'm talking about it not being all or nothing and how excluding margin of victory is being simplistic. Clearly, the point of this can't be that there is an explicit calculation in the individual computer rankings. And just as clearly, I'm talking about an indirect impact on the polls. |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 6:15 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Still there? Giving up? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581553) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 6:58 PM Author: indigo slippery clown brethren No. I think the article above is referring to the computer rankings when it says "computer rankings." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581793) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 7:01 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I don't think it is, but there are plenty of sites where they're referred to this way. I don't even know why you're trying to dispute this. Anyway, I'm heading out for the night, so I can't respond again, but I still see no way that you can explain yourself. When I refer to 'all or nothing' and being simplistic, obviously, I'm referring to margin of victory having some indirect, SUBJECTIVE component (i.e., effect on pollsters). My post makes no sense if there is an explict margin of victory component in individual computer rankings. I still see no way that someone reading my post could have thought that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581812) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:29 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler Date: October 10th, 2004 8:13 PM Author: inin2004
I find it a little bit ridiculous that Purdue has gone from number 15 to number 5 in the past two weeks, considering that their only two conference wins have been close, and have come against teams with a combined 0-6 record in the Big 10, and 4-8 overall.
Oh well, the cream will rise to the top.
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:30 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site So, do you think that Wisconsin is the cream? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581281) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:31 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler When compared to [Purdue], yes.
I didn't say the cream will rise to the top by week 8, I said it will rise to the top.
Michigan will win the Big 10. |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:32 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Man, that was a great game against Michigan State this weekend. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1581298) |
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Date: November 1st, 2004 5:35 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler It was something. Made all the sweeter by the fact that the MSU fans seated nearby were royal assholes.
Michigan will be a fun team to watch for the next couple of years. |
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Date: November 6th, 2004 7:03 PM Author: exciting mustard stage community account bump! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1610498) |
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Date: November 6th, 2004 7:04 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker I wasn't too far off, was i? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1610503) |
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Date: November 6th, 2004 7:07 PM Author: exciting mustard stage community account i knew these bastard were over-rated in june
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=43981&mc=157&forum_id=2#721186 |
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Date: November 6th, 2004 7:11 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker Well, I think that they were just overrated during the season - not all that way back. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1610537) |
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Date: November 6th, 2004 7:12 PM Author: exciting mustard stage community account Tiller's teams always choke in big games; they've never been able to close teams out, and they always make too many stupid turnovers down the stretch. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1610547) |
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Date: November 6th, 2004 7:14 PM Author: Smoky exhilarant windowlicker They lack the talent, by and large. The teams don't have depth. The scheme reminds me of Barnett's NWU scheme in the mid 90s - spreading out the opp. defense. They do a lot with a little, but expecting them to do more than that is silly.
It's tough on the B10 teams when you have tOSU and MI drinking up all the real talent from the area. |
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Date: November 7th, 2004 1:13 AM Author: Racy painfully honest spot haha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1613707) |
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Date: November 8th, 2004 8:49 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1622017) |
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Date: November 22nd, 2004 1:07 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1688879) |
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Date: November 22nd, 2004 1:07 PM Author: Jet titillating dilemma truly awesome. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1688880) |
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Date: November 22nd, 2004 1:09 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Almost as awesome as you being too afraid to pick NFL games against me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1688889) |
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Date: November 27th, 2004 5:15 PM Author: Jet titillating dilemma two questions:
(1) did i or did i not go a perfect 6-0 against the spread the only two weeks i offered my nfl games on the board?
(2) did you or did you not decline the challenge when i suggested you try to do the same?
HTH |
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Date: November 29th, 2004 9:51 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site (3) did you or did you not decline the challenge I gave to you of us picking againts each other? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1715126) |
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Date: November 27th, 2004 5:05 PM Author: Yellow excitant school cafeteria idea he suggested I haven't been following college football lately.
Did Purdue end up undefeated? |
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Date: November 28th, 2004 4:49 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot close (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1712347) |
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Date: November 29th, 2004 9:49 AM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1715122) |
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Date: December 1st, 2004 4:43 PM Author: ocher incel piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1726467) |
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Date: December 6th, 2004 7:48 PM Author: Yellow excitant school cafeteria idea he suggested Purdue and Cal in the Rose Bowl, Baby! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1751876) |
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Date: December 6th, 2004 7:50 PM Author: ocher incel piazza Orton for Heisman! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1751887) |
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Date: December 15th, 2004 11:55 AM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler nobody - still the biggest shithead around. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1795164) |
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Date: December 15th, 2004 12:15 PM Author: ocher incel piazza I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1795264) |
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Date: December 15th, 2004 12:20 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I love it as well b/c it shows (for anyone looking at the 3rd post) how dumb you guys are for continually bumping it. Of course, there's also the fact that I later picked Wisconsin and the points against Purdue and then Michigan to beat them outirght... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1795295) |
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Date: December 15th, 2004 12:25 PM Author: Erotic Pistol what's your deal man? You just don't let stuff die do you? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1795319) |
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Date: December 15th, 2004 12:26 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site He's so often wrong that he persistently bumps every single thread where he (often erroneously) thinks he was right and others were wrong... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1795326) |
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Date: December 29th, 2004 7:54 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler Douchebag. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1855522) |
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Date: December 31st, 2004 6:19 PM Author: Yellow excitant school cafeteria idea he suggested 12-0! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1864259) |
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Date: January 4th, 2005 4:25 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot still awesome (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#1878023) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:39 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047445) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:40 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Wow...didn't see that one coming... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047448) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:40 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film Boy, Maryland made the ACC proud last night. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047451) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:43 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I hardly see how a pretty good ACC team losing on the road to one of the lesser ACC teams is a bad thing... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047461) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:47 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film When the ACC's 4th best team is 1-5 on the road, I don't know how it's a good thing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047478) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:49 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site The bottom line with Maryland is that under Gary Williams in the last several years, the team has played much better come tournament time. Nothing I've seen this year leads me to believe that this year will be any different... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047484) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:52 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film With 8 regular season games left, including 4 on the road, and two home games against Duke and NC, tournament time is no sure thing. 3-5 ain't gonna do it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047501) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:55 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site MD would get in with a 7-9 ACC record with 1 ACC tournament win... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047520) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 10:58 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film Another big if. Very possible they'll play GT in the first round. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047531) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 11:00 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Even if they played GT in the 1st round and lost, I still think they make the NCAAs. I can't remember an ACC team not making the dance at 7-9 (7-10) when the ACC was the top ranked conference... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047543) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 11:01 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film Ha. That's rich. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047546) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 11:02 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site So, you're saying they don't get in under this scenario. We'll see if it playes out that way... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047552) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 11:02 AM Author: avocado french lettuce stag film 16-12(7-10).
Um, no. |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 11:04 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site I can remember FSU and UVA teams making it into the NCAAs with very similar records. In fact, I think one FSU team was 6-11 in the ACC... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047565) |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 10:49 AM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler I don't believe they use postseason tournament records when considering conference record.
Anyway, do you think VaTech will make the tournament? Neither do I. And I can tell you right now, if MD loses one of its two upcoming games against VT, MD will not be invited to the Big Dance. |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 10:51 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site "I don't believe they use postseason tournament records when considering conference record."
They don't. But the point is that FSU was 6-10 and then lost their 1st round game in the ACC's and got in, and the same went for a 7-9 UVA team another year.
"Anyway, do you think VaTech will make the tournament?"
I don't think that they will...
"And I can tell you right now, if MD loses one of its two upcoming games against VT, MD will not be invited to the Big Dance."
I could easily see them losing 1 and still getting in. Heck, they were 4-8 or 4-9 at one point in the ACC last year and then went on a nice run...
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 10:56 AM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler A) That Florida State team was the only team since 1996 that made the tournament with a conference record that bad.
B) Only 6 times between 1996 and 2004 did a team even one game below .500 in conference play get invited.
C) Only one time (the aforementioned FSU team) has a team been invited to the tournament when a team with a better record in-conference in the same conference was not. If MD loses to VT, it will almost certainly have a worse conference record than VT. |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 11:00 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site "A) That Florida State team was the only team since 1996 that made the tournament with a conference record that bad."
True, but I've been talking about MD at 7-9, not 6-10...
"B) Only 6 times between 1996 and 2004 did a team even one game below .500 in conference play get invited."
As I said before, when an ACC team has been 7-9 when the ACC has been the top rated conference, that team has always made the NCAAs...
"C) Only one time (the aforementioned FSU team) has a team been invited to the tournament when a team with a better record in-conference record in the same conference was not. If MD loses to VT, it will almost certainly have a worse conference record than VT."
MD could easily lose 1 to VT, and VT could still go 7-9. Just as easily, however, VT could go 9-7 or 10-6 and make the NCAAs. Besides, this situation is similar to the FSU one in that the team likely to be passed over, was relatively TTT in OOC play... |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 11:03 AM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler Not really. That FSU team also had 17 wins. The selection committee also uses overall number of wins, and ESPECIALLY with bubble teams, road/neutral court record. MD has an abominable road record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2054726) |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 11:04 AM Author: Crusty wrinkle site And MD would have 16 wins in this scenario, even with a 1st round ACC loss. According to collegerpi.com, MD is currently #23 in the RPI... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2054733) |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 12:27 PM Author: fishy bisexual deer antler Right. 1 fewer win than the biggest anomaly selection in the past ten years. I'm aware of MD's current RPI, that will drop substantially if the season plays out as we've hypothesized. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2055083) |
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Date: February 3rd, 2005 12:29 PM Author: Crusty wrinkle site Well, I really hope that MD goes 7-9 in the ACC so that we can see what happens... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2055095) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2005 11:01 AM Author: Racy painfully honest spot 173 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2047547) |
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Date: February 14th, 2005 12:55 AM Author: ocher incel piazza i love this thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2126339) |
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Date: March 6th, 2005 3:25 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2268974) |
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Date: March 6th, 2005 3:29 PM Author: violet indian lodge I won $500 betting on MI against Purdue. What idiot made purdue a favorite in that game? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2268996) |
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Date: March 25th, 2005 9:37 PM Author: Racy painfully honest spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=89981&forum_id=2#2408197) |
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